2011 Presidents Forum – A. Bollini
It is a great honor and great pleasurefor me to meet all of you here today and have the possibility to exchange, once again, views on common business related matters
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What I would like to cover with you today, is an overview of the macro economic factors in EU, the relevant implication on material handling business as well as the expectations for the years to come.
In addition to this, I see of interest for all of you, to be updated on a subject is becoming of a real importance for the Material Handling industries: The Market surveillance in EU(I will explain later what it means)
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Before I go any further, it is alwaysuseful to review quickly what Europe consists of:
From the geographical point of view,Europe is today composed of 47 Countries out of which 27 belong to the European Community and 17(latest was Estonia from January 2011) have adopted € as a currency. This is the so called Eurozone
The map on the screen presents an overview of the Member Countriesof European Community and the ones having adopted the € as their currency in addition
Needless to underline the complexity of the European Market business environment
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A good starting point to understand where we are headingin Europe, is to analyze the economic development over the past years and the forecast for the coming years in terms of GDP Growth
Providing the Europe’s performance remains well behind other countries in the world like China, over the past year the Europe GDP developmentshows a good but uneven recovery among Member states.
Top growth rate performer is for sure Germany while other largeEuro-area economies are following at aslower pace.
The forecasted GDP development is anyhow indicating a sort of stabilization around 2%
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Aside to this forecast, it might be interestingto evaluateone of the key “drivers of the economy”:The “Economic Sentiment Indicator”
This index is measuringthe Consumer confidence along with the confidence in Industry, Services, Construction and Retail when compared with GDP ant it is obviously different among EU Countries as illustrated in the chart (dark green higher, light green lower)
TheoverallESI index is stillimproving but the pattern is rather differentcompared with the recent history
Fiscal “policies” and “stimulus” packages in EU have rebuilt ESI Confidence today predominantly driven by anhigherConsumer confidence while the Industrial, Services, Construction and Retail confidence is subdued
To be noticed that, not later than one year ago, the Confidence indicators on “Industry” and “Services” were higher while the confidence on “ConsumerConstruction and Retail” was rather weak
Under the today circumstances, considering the Country deficit, Public debts, Bank credit restrictions,Unemployment andInflation, it might be that this index coulddeteriorate in the future
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In this respect, it might be interesting to have an additional look at the “inflation” trend and relevant forecast for the Top 5 EU Economies, which more than others, have an impact on our businesssince they represents some70% of the material handlingmarket of whole Europe according to WITS figures
Inflation rose in the Euro Area resulting fromcommodity price pressures but isexpected to stabilizearound 2% in the coming years
To be noticed UK is not part of Eurozone, never the less one of the EU main markets for material handling
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Let’s now move to our business in EU
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The chart represents the “European market” development over the time. After the peak recorded in 2006/7 and the “sharp and fast” drop experienced in 2009, it is evidentwe are experiencing a recovering since some time now
To be noticed that, as it was in all other regions, the overall economy drop in EUhad more impact on CB’s (Class 1, 4, 5) rather than WH’s (Class 2, 3) and the recovery is faster for WH’s than CB’s
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While the market recovery is rather positivein almost all EU Countries, it is of a value to have an insightof Eastern and Westernside of Europe
Before doing so, it necessary to recap which EU Countries are classified as East and West within WITS statistics after the latest reclassification in the WITS reports
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The Western market development (the so called “oldEurope”) where all the 16 Countries part of the Eurozone are located, represent the by farthe largest portion of the EU market
The recovery trend is clearly in place with CB’s (Class 1,4,5) recovering slower than WH’s (Class 2,3)
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The Eastern market trend instead, is significantly smaller but the growth rate recorded since 2007/8 was impressive as well as the drop experienced in 2009
The recovery trend is clearly in place with CB’s (Class 1,4,5) recovering rather fast
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In summary, the today Economy recovery is solidbut the unemployment remains high with the risk to “hold back” the general consumer confidence
There are risks in certain Euro countries related to development support policy, high debt rate, insufficient progress on banking system repair, the raise in oil price, political and social problems, etc.
The GDP growth rate of 0,84% in Q1 2011 seems to be confirmed in Q2 while on Q3 the growth rate pace might slow-down due to a number of uncertainties
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Under these circumstances, where the economy hasturned the corner from the great recession, the today EU market recovery is largely driven by Germany and few other countries
However, it seems too optimistic to foresee the EU market will continue to growth at this pace
A common believe is that the EU market will be backto 2006/7 level by 2014
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I would like now to introduce my third subject as I do believe it is of a great importance for manufacturers who want to sell in Europe:The Market surveillance
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The system of Market surveillance in Europe shall ensure the Complianceof products to Safety, Environmental and Exhaust emission legislation controlled by the “Market surveillance authorities”
This is something incommonwith in other regions of the world. Also Europe has legislation in place also applicable to industrial trucks.
The system is very liberal, all manufacturers can confirm their compliance to the applicable legislation by their own, no third party certification is required.
On the other hand, authorities are obliged to perform product checks regarding the fulfillment of the applicable legislation.
This is the “Market surveillance” process
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This “sensitive” subject was introduced first timeby FEM during the last yearAITO-Meeting 2010 in Istanbul with the aim to have the participant informed about a more proactive approach the EU Market Surveillance Authorities decided to play in the near future
The major aim is of course to prevent accidents with noncompliant/unsafe industrial trucks which is in the interest of authorities, manufacturers and users but also environmental issues are concerned and might be even more in the future
In this activities, the Market Surveillance Authorities will be fully supported by industryand associations and FEM contributedwith its knowledgeby providing a “brief guide foridentification of non-compliant industrial trucks“ (see the FEM website on the chart for more info and free download)
As per today, a significant number of non-compliant equipment was seen on lastMHIX/Birmingham fair as well as during auctions in various EU countries but no punishment for exhibitorsor sellers was applied
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In this respect, during the recent CeMAT/Hannover international fair, the German National Committee of FEM (VDMA) conducted inspections on first day of the show regarding obvious violations on industrial trucks
Results was than more than 50 exhibits from the industrial trucks segment did not meet the requirements of the European directivesregarding machine safety, exhaust emissions and noise emissions
The information collected was turned over to the Trade Supervisory Office in Hannover who, after their own inspection acting as Market Surveillance Authorities, confirmed the violations found by the VDMA
Sealed, tamperproof signs had to be affixed to some exhibit informing about the products not being in conformance with European directives regulationsin order to protect potential buyers from becoming involved in the illegal operation of such products in Europe
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What’s next ?
As far as the Material Handling sector is concerned, what is to be expectedin the near future, is:
-A formal follow up on Market Surveillance Authorities actions against violations found on CeMAT 2011
-Several press releases or articles regarding legal consequences for operators of non-compliant industrial trucks were or will be published
-Preparation by FEM IT of the 4th chapter regarding technical details for „A brief guide for identification of non-compliant industrial trucks“
-Other FEMproduct groups will join the initiative of FEM IT and will publish their “A brief guides for .…”
-And finally, on 24th November 2011 theEU conference on Market Surveillance where FEM will have the opportunity to actively participate
Needless to say, given the increasing importance onMarket Surveillance in EU, other business sectors will move in the same direction
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I would like to terminate my presentation with a FEM IT appeal to all truck manufactures
-An increase of unsafe trucks in operation will result in more accidents
-This is detrimental for any manufacturer of industrial trucks
-We request all AITO-members to appeal to their members to use the world wide agreed standard ISO 3691 regarding safety and obey national legislation regarding exhaust and outdoor noise emissions
-Otherwise governments might get in favor of third party certification…and, correct me if I am wrong, those additional costs and bureaucratic burden would not be in our interest.
Thanks for your attention