European Water Scenarios: from the Mediterranean Sea to Central Asia

Brussels, 30th June - 1st July 2003

Summary Reports and Discussion Papers

European Water Scenarios Workshop, Brussels, 30 June – 1 July 2003

Introduction

Over 100 water experts and stakeholders met in Brussels for a two days workshop in order to discuss open research issues and current gaps with regard to scenarios of water demand and availability at regional scale. The report summarizes the discussions held at the Brussels workshop and aims to outline outstanding research issues which may become the scope of research proposals under the second call of FP 6[1].

The workshop gave the opportunity to:

  • make the point on what is going on in Europe on topics which are related to the Area "Water Cycle including soil related aspects" (see work programme - updated version for the second call - published on CORDIS) such as: II.3.1b) "Methodologies for Integrated Water Resources Management and Transboundary Issues"; II.3.3b) "New Approaches to Water Stress" and II.4.1b) "Water Scenarios for Europe and neighbouring countries"; where relevant water research projects have been funded in the past Framework Programme (5th FP, 1998 to 2002) by the EU.
  • discuss the likely structure and content of future model-supported consistent water scenarios on a 25 - 50 years scale taking fully into account Europe and neighbouring countries (from Mediterranean to Central Asia including Russia and all NIS).
  • Link the above mentioned topics in a future water scenario taking into account and supporting the EU Water Initiative[2] launched at the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg.
  • connect different research communities which could co-operate in future research activities as well as favour synergies and avoid overlaps in the preparation of future project proposals

The workshop has been structured in four parts (principles and background elements for water scenarios; modeling and monitoring tools; sectoral perspectives; regional perspectives) followed by discussion sessions where for each of the topic (see above) which will be considered in the second call for proposal of FP 6 a focus has been made on:

  • Open research questions and current gaps
  • Links, synergies, potential overlaps among different topics for Integrated Projects (IP) foreseen in the second call.

Each discussion session focused on a specific topic and has been animated by "rapporteurs":

1st session

Methodologies for Integrated Water Resources Management and Transboundary Issues

Rapporteurs

Pavel Kabat, Wageningen University and Research Centre (NL);

Claudia Pahl-Wostl, University of Osnabrück (D);

Saskia Werners, Wageningen University and Research Centre (NL).

2nd session

New Approaches to Water Stress

Rapporteurs

Paul Jeffrey, Cranfield University (UK);

Giuseppe Giuliano, IRSA (IT).

3rd session

Water Scenarios for Europe and neighbouring countries"

Rapporteur

Joe Alcamo, University of Kassel (D).

Late in the afternoon different groups have been formed with the aim to share potential ideas for preparing project proposals for the second call.

The following three chapters correspond respectively to the reports provided by the a.m. rapporteurs.

1. Methodologies for Integrated Water Resources Management and Transboundary Issues: Meeting Report and Background Thematic Document Pavel Kabat, Claudia Pahl-Wostl, Saskia Werners

The FP6 calls for the development of integrated approaches & tools for management of water-soil resources in the context of global change [Themes II.3 and II.4 of the sub-priority 1.1.6.3: Global Change and Ecosystems]. At the Water Scenarios workshop organised by the European Commission from 30 June to 1 July 2003 in Brussels the thematic scope of this call was further elaborated by over 100 water experts. This report summarises the discussion at the Brussels workshop and aims to outline outstanding research issues which may become the scope of research proposals under CallII.3.1b: IWRM at catchment scale, in a close synergy with call II3.3b and II4.1a. It draws together:

  • results from the Water Scenarios Workshop from 30 June to 1 July 2003 in Brussels
  • objectives of call II.3.1b, II3.3b and II4.1a under the FP6
  • knowledge demand from existing initiatives & projects both within and outside EU (listed in Appendix A)

FP6 Call and relation between research themes: Towards SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF EUROPEAN WATER RESOURCES UNDER INCREASING UNCERTAINTIES

Sustainable management of water resources is a key factor to guarantee sustainability of societal development. Water management faces considerable challenges. Problems have become more complex and integrated approaches need to be developed with stakeholder groups and the public. Current management practices and institutional settings are developed in a tradition of solving single sectoral problems with merely technological and infrastructural measures. Hence they are often not appropriate to meet the new challenges. Current practices need to be improved to deal with uncertainties in environmental conditions, societal development and global (climatic) change. The topics open for the next call offer excellent offer excellent opportunities to foster major progress in this direction are:

  • Methods for Integrated Resources Management and Transboundary Issues (Theme II.3.1b)
  • New approaches to dealing with water stress (Theme II.3.3b)
  • Scenarios for European water demand and availability for the next 25-50 years (Theme II.4.1b)

The major challenges for integrated water resources management are uncertainty (exacerbated by global change) and the limitations of predictability. These challenges require a change from prevailing management practices based on prediction and control to adaptive management and the participatory design of learning and implementation processes. Management must become responsive to changes in the natural and social environment. It must develop a framework for strategies appropriate at different scales and explore their combined effect.

Flexible management practices will be needed to deal with the problem of water stress. Proposals developed under the theme water stress could explore potential and limitations of solutions integrating technological, economic and institutional aspects. This knowledge will be important to test the assumptions and frameworks developed under the integrated resource management topic and to test the applicability and need for combining different scales.

Scenarios could map possible and plausible development trajectories for the future over the next 25-50 years. The scenarios should guide and set priorities for decision making over the next decade implementing river basin management. Major objectives may include “avoid undesirable future developments” and/or “avoid lock-in developments by choosing robust strategies that maintain maximum degree of freedom and flexibility in the future”. The development of scenarios could profit from a detailed process understanding developed under the water stress and integrated water resources management themes.

Given the thematic linkages between the topics, the proposals addressing the above three research themes should be developed with the aim to maximise complementarity, to increase the impact and relevance of each individual proposal, and to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.

Potential thematic linkages between the three topics open for the next call.

Methodologies of IWRM and Transboundary Issues: outstanding research questions

There is wealth of research results from the past (4th and 5th Framework) and ongoing EU supported projects in the area of water cycle and water resources management. These past results as well as currently ongoing activities must not be circumvented or duplicated by any future research efforts of upcoming projects under the FP6. Rather, they should be used as a powerful resource base on which a definition of new research initiatives should be based. The real challenge ahead however resides mainly in development of truly interdisciplinary, integrative and participative research approaches and methodologies in the area of water management. There are several outstanding research questions to be tackled as a part of such new research effort. The participants of the Brussels Workshop, many of them are very familiar with the existing results as well as ongoing activities, identified the following main areas as still outstanding research questions:

-Implications of the Global Environmental Change (GEC), including climate variability and change, land use and land cover change, population and economic growth; on water resources management

-Scientific underpinning of the adaptation strategies as a part of IWRM

-Uncertainty analysis and decision making under uncertainties as a part of IWRM

-Tools for adaptive decision making in water resources management

-Spatial and temporal scale issues in linking of physical, ecological, socio-economical and institutional systems

-Indicators of vulnerability of the water systems at different scales to GEC

-Modelling of the multitude of feed backs at a river basin scale (again including both physical and socio/economic feed backs)

-Optimisation of multisectoral interests at different scales and development of participative decision making as a part of IWRM

-Risk management as a part of IWRM under increasing uncertainty & complexity, including exploring of novel instruments such as measures through the financial and (re)insurance sectors

-Effective Early Warning and Forecasting Systems; improvements still needed w.r.t time and space resolution as well as (mainly) in the area of knowledge transfer and communication to the users

-Need for a tailor made high resolution climate change scenarios (usable at a river basin scale)

-Need for studies on how to institutionalisze, fund and implement adaptation agenda in the water sector in the Less Developed Countries (LDCs); this with a special reference to the objectives of EU partnerships within the European Water Initiative

-Need for studies into a paradigm shift in decision making as a part of the North-South collaborative issues in the water sector: how to switch from the currently predominating disaster relief modus operandi (water related disasters such as droughts, and floods) to potentially more effective and sustainable preparedness strategies

Main issues to be addressed as a part of a new activity under the Theme II.3.1b: IWRM at catchment scale

The Brussels workshop discussed the following draft guiding principles for a potential proposal under this theme:

Enable sustainable, balanced & equitable water supply based on long-term protection of water resources

Share relevant water research and innovation potential with international partners in dialogue, learning and action

Create the enabling environment for full effectiveness of scientific co-operation and cross-policy coherence in IWRM on catchment scale

Participantsstressedthe importance of practicalutility of theproject in helping realpeople, povertyalleviation and realisation of the MDGs (Millennium Development Goals). Dealing with and reducing subject complexity was identified as major challenge.

Participant of the workshop agreed that the rationale for a sustainable water policy lies in:

  • Today’s problems are complex and have to be solved in a world with increasing uncertainty
  • Based on a polycentric understanding of policy making where different societal groups are involved and different measures are combined
  • Increasing uncertainties require innovation and flexible policy processes
  • Short term decisions need long term guidance

Key Building blocks of a potential IP: IWRM at catchment scale

Different building blocks for a potential project proposal were presented and discussed in 2 sessions. Below participant’s comments are grouped according to these building blocks.

1. “Setting the stage”

  • Inventory of European and international state of affairs for the main themes of the IP, including relevant FP5 activities, policy processes, stakeholder involvement, terminology and definitions, implementation WFD
  • Comparison national experience implementing WFD
  • Critique on IWRM concepts & practices (preparing a position paper)
  • Co-ordinate and link in with other project (proposals) and consider what is covered elsewhere (e.g. ecological modelling, cc impacts on surface water)
  • Consult stakeholders early on: water resources managers
  • Data collection (formats, between cases/areas, presentation…). Note: social data may have to be collected <-> consultation. Despite of their abundance, hydrological / meteorological data need possibly additional consolidation effort.

2. Global Environmental Change (Trends & Impacts; relation with scenario project important)

•Implications of GEC (CV/CC; LUCC; population and economic growth, …) in connection with appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies in IWRM

•Tailor made high resolution CC/CV scenarios

3. System Understanding & Management (Complexity, Integration & Management under Uncertainty)

•Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of IWRM (both physical and socio-economic/human dimension)

•Risk management under (increasing) uncertainties (including combination of novel instruments, such as non-structural measures, (re)insurance, financial derivates, etc

•Preparedness versus disaster relief; thresholds in decision making and N-S issues

•Spatial and temporal scale issues in linking of physical, ecological socio-economic, and institutional (TB) systems, indicators, feedbacks at a catchment, regional and (supra)national levels

•Win-win scenarios by combination of adaptation and mitigation measures through IWRM

  • Integration water related policies and sustainable development
  • Focus on synergy between different disciplines, projects, approaches (and national implementation) [in European structure]. Use number of projects, scientists, and processes for comparison.

•Optimisation of multisectoral interests

  • emphasise relation water & soil – for poverty & human health taking into consideration e.g. industrial pollution

4. Tool Box (Management under Uncertainty)

  • Development and implementation of Integrated Modelling, Decision Support Systems for IWRM in the context of sustainable development; Guidelines, indicators of status and significance of water bodies, indicator models, risk/vulnerability assessment, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty

•Tools for decision making in IWRM under uncertainty: alternative policy measures, in policy process, adaptive management to make (social) systems more flexible

  • More support for technical solutions for mitigating water scarcity
  • Link to operational water resources management
  • Note: already many toolboxes exist. This should not be main focus of project

5. Case study Basins

  • Case study areas have to be selected that support the building blocks. Areas include Europe, EECCA, Africa, and Latin America. Cases should make use of existing networks of e.g. HELP, Dialogue on Water & Climate, GWP. INCO-networks
  • Co-operation with neighbouring countries. Stress: different starting point: e.g. these countries have different or no Directive. Cultural differences
  • Methodology: consistent/transparent for different cases. Data may differ
  • Include stakeholders that play role in their area. Take on board their research questions.
  • Use cases for participation and knowledge sharing. Explicitly offer to draw conclusions and publish on experiences. Involve facilitators and social scientists to design and implement participation.

6. Dissemination/Networking (Link to relevant networks, Policy Processes)

  • Establish “world-wide platform” and shared knowledge base for IWRM research and exchange
  • Integrate learning by doing in all phases and sub projects of the project plan
  • link in with ongoing learning from national initiatives
  • Education, innovative (promotion of) new practises
  • consultation with stakeholders on complexity and relevance of knowledge generated
  • establish link researchers and others, non research organisations (NGOs, stakeholders, local governments, European waterworks) to foster implementation
  • How to draw people from many different organisations and projects to contribute to FP6. Will EC dedicate funds to interaction IPs under FP6? Integration of activities, people! Establish mutual interest

7. Other key issues:

•Early Warning and Forecasting Systems: time and space resolution, knowledge transfer and communication

•Financing IWRM

•Sustainable financing of water supply & sanitation, including: new financing mechanisms, prizing mechanisms, cost recovery and private investment

•How to institutionalise, fund and implement adaptation agenda in LDCs? (NAPAs, twinning)

  • Identify value of water (economic, human, ecological)
  • Virtual Water Trade
  • impact future water policy, law and legislation
  • Participation, governance: study practises and perceptions of stakeholders in support of policy processes; Realising effective participation under the WFD by 2006 on river basin scale, including legal and institutional and political framework
  • Construction of shared knowledge base (different models, data/information formats, languages): terminology. Possibly to help reduce complexity.
  • relation with EU Water Initiative: * one of objectives of the call is to support the water initiative; * way of funding research contributing to commitments in EU Water initiative

Appendices

Appendix A: Knowledge Demand Water Framework Directive[3] and EU Water Initiative[4], presented by Pavel Kabat – Wageningen University and Research Centre

The EU can draw on a wealth of experience and knowledge in many fields of water related activity and has much to offer in promoting change and best practice. The Water Framework Directive sets clear environmental objectives and requires that all partners in a given river basin manage their waters in close co-operation irrespective of administrative borders. The EU experiences show that at an integrated river basin management level, participation by all stakeholders together with knowledge and information exchange will promote economic development institutional sustainability and conflict prevention. This experience of water management is not only confined to Europe itself. Lack of knowledge and experience sharing can engender economic inefficiency and social inequity in water allocation and use and thus come with potentially high social and economic costs. In addition the implementation of the Water Framework Directive raises a number of shared technical challenges for the Member States, the Commission, the Candidate Countries and other stakeholders. At World Water Forum 3 in Kyoto the results from a number of international Dialogues were presented. Participant in the Dialogues and the Forum called for a timely response to global change in the context of IWRM and for synergy with other policies (e.g. energy, land-use).

Water Framework Directive

Various demands follow from the national experience implementing WFD, including:

  • Assessment good / bad ecological status
  • Use of expert judgement
  • Relevance of economic and social value for ‘particular significance’ of water bodies
  • Interaction fresh water, groundwater and coastal waters
  • Maintenance of ecological status
  • Impacts of diffuse pollution
  • Assessment lake status, including bio-diversity
  • Compare national interpretations of WFD

The Water Framework Directive sets out clear deadlines for each of the requirements that add up to an ambitious overall timetable. Future research challenges, related to the deadlines include: