Report

Estimations and Projections of HIV Epidemic

Chisinau, 2010

Outline

  1. EPP2009v data input process
  2. Spectrum V3 data input process
  3. EPP
  4. Spectrum 2009 output data.
  5. Limitations and concerns

1.EPP2009v data input process

EPP2009v and Spectrum v3 are epidemiological software for the estimation of prevalence and incidence trends over time. Taking into account the definition of epidemics provided in the EPP2009v software manual, Republic of Moldova has a Concentrated Epidemic pattern, as all criteria below apply:

  • HIV has spread rapidly in at least one defined sub-population, but is not well-established in the general population. Most often more than one subpopulation at higher risk is affected.
  • HIV prevalence is consistently over 5% in at least one defined subpopulation. HIV prevalence is below 1% in pregnant women in urban areas.
  • This epidemic state usually suggests active networks of risk exist within and between the sub-populations. (UNAIDS Reference group on Estimates, Modeling and Projections, 2009)

First there was a dataset created in EPP, using the recommendations from the manual; Republic of Moldova template , with a population, age 15+, of 2,996,180 in 2009, has been selected for the creation of the working file. and the concentrated epidemic pattern was selected. Although there is a possibility to change the population in EPP2009v, the national technical team has opted for entering the data and producing estimates only for the Right Bank of Dniester river due to data quality and availability issues where the left bank is concerned (for example, there are no estimates of sizes of populations most at risk for the left bank of Dniester river in the Republic of Moldova). Based on the data available, 4 subpopulations were created for mapping the epidemic patterns (Table 1). Data related to HIV prevalence among clients of FSW and migrants, groups that, according to anecdotal evidence, may play an important role in determining the epidemic, are missing:

Table 1 General characteristics of sub-population used for EPP2009v

IDU / MSM / CSW / General Population
15 + Population Size / 25000 / 2200 / 6000 / 2 962 980
Proportion of male (0 to 1) / 0.8 / 1 / 0 / 0.472
Excess mortality in IDUs %/year / 1.07
Average time spent in group / 10.4 / 13.1 / 6.7 / 50

The subpopulations are further defined below:

IDU – the risk group of injecting drug users, with an estimated size of 25 000 on the right bank of the Nistru river, Republic of Moldova, with the proportion of male to female of 0.8, an excess mortality in IDUs of 1.07% per year, and the average time spent in group of 10.4 years. Following the recommendation from the EPP2009v manual, the option of risk turnover was selected and the prevalence in this risk group was added to the General Population prevalence (UNAIDS Reference group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections, 2009). In the HIV data page, the routine statistics data on prevalence among IDU registered at the Republican Narcological Dispensary, who are tested as a recommended general practice twice per year, was entered for 1995 – 2009 years (Table 2).

MSM – the risk group of men who have sex with men, with an estimated number of 2 200 on the right bank of the Nistru river, Republic of Moldova, with the proportion of male to female of 1.0, and an average time spent in the risk group of 13.1 years. The option of risk turnover was selected and the resulted prevalence from this subpopulation was added to the prevalence in the General Population. In the HIV data page the prevalence among MSM was entered, the sources of data being the Behavioral Surveillance Surveys 2003/2004 and 2007 (Table 3). As data points are few, and due to small sample sizes the margins of error are substantive, we chose to set a maximum cap on prevalence in 2015 at 5 % (in the advanced options of the Project tab) to avoid an over-inflation of the epidemic in Moldova and a disproportionate contribution of MSM.

CSW – Commercial Sex Workers risk group, with an estimated number of 6 000 on the right bank of the Nistru river, Republic of Moldova, the proportion of male to female of 0.0, and an average time spent in the risk group of 6.7 years. The turnover option was selected and replace prevalence option to the general population was selected (this indicates that some of the HIV+ individuals in the target population, assumed to come from former at-risk group, may be captured in prevalence estimations for the general population; in the case of Republic of Moldova, some ex-CSWs may have been captured in the antenatal care prevalence data). In the HIV data page, the prevalence among CSW was entered, the sources of data being the Behavioral Surveillance Surveys 2003/2004 and 2007 (Table 4).

General Population – the remaining low risk population of 2 962 980, from the right bank of the Nistru river, Republic of Moldova, the proportion of male to female being 0.472, and the average time spent in group -= 50 years (the maximum value for EPP; life expectancy in Moldova being 69 years, the respective average duration in group is largely consistent with the population 15+ EPP is working with). HIV data entered for this sub-population was the prevalence among pregnant women (ANC data of women tested HIV+ during their pregnancy and women that became pregnant knowing their HIV+ status, from the right bank of Nistru river, Republic of Moldova for 2000 – 2009 years) (Table 5).

The ART treatment data was entered for the right bank of Nistru river, Republic of Moldova; in setting targets for 2015, the enrolment in treatment targets for 2010 – 2012, specified in the grants funded by the Global Fund fighting AIDS/Tuberculosis and Malaria, were taken into account. The data on enrollment of MARPs in treatment has limitations, as currently in Moldova records are kept of PLHIV on ART, disaggregated by mode of transmission rather then by belonging to a risk group; hence data on IDU on treatment are available, and with some limitations due to underreporting, data on MSM on treatment are available. The enrollment of CSW has been estimated based on other MARPS, using the following formula: the share of MARPS on treatment out of MARPs that are HIV+. The same proportions of coverage of subpopulations with treatment existent in 2008-2009 have been extrapolated until 2015. (Table 6)

In the “Survey data” page, the information regarding the prevalence among IDUs was entered for 2001, 2007 and 2009 from the Behavioral Surveillance Surveys held in the respective years, to enhance the precision of national projection and to complement the routine statistics which are not fully representative of the whole IDU population. This data was used afterwards for the calibration of prevalence-incidence curves of the given risk group. For the remaining sub-populations, there was no information added in this page, because the prevalence data from BSS surveys were used as baseline HIV prevalence data (Table 7).

In the projection page, the analysis were made for every sub-population; the projections were made using the “National Projection” option (1900 unique curves) and were fitted to the data available. In the advanced options, the t0 has been adjusted to better reflect the onset fo the epidemic. In the case of MSM, in the advanced options prevalence has been limited at 5% in 2015 to avoid an over-estimation of prevalence due to limited data availability and quality issues.

In the calibration page:

IDU – the trend was calibrated to the results of the surveys in order to be adjusted to the prevalence found in the BSS Surveys (at the moment there are no other estimates of prevalence among IDU made in Republic of Moldova)

MSM – no adjustments were made

CSW – no adjustments were made

General Population – the trend was scaled down by the factor of 0.6 (as recommended by EAD unit, UNAIDS HQ) because usually ANC data overestimate the prevalence in the General Population.

After that the projections were made in EPP and Spectrum output file was created in order to import the incidence estimated by EPP2009v into Spectrum.

2.Spectrum V3 data input process

The default data file was created based on the template for the Republic of Moldova which contains the demographic information for the population of the Republic of Moldova. The population in Spectrum is estimated at 3 921 323; the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of Moldova report the total population at 3 572 703 on the right bank of Nistru. The difference in about 350.000 accounts for the popualiton on the left bank of Nistru – Transnistria region. While EPP default popualiton can be amended, since estimate size of subpopulations for the left bank of Nistru is missing, we opted for producing estimates representative only for the righ bank of Nistru in EPP2009v. Because EPP2009v calculates the incidence in proportions, it was assumed that the incidence distribution for the right bank is similar to the incidence distribution for the left bank and was applied for both banks (the demographic pattern in Spectrum) (Stover, 2009).

The steps made for the projections were as follows:

1)In the Epidemiology section, the HIV incidence for 15 – 49 years was imported from EPP2009v(Table 8),

2)In the HIV Age Distribution Page of AIM, there was selected the pattern for Concentrated IDU epidemic pattern,

3)In the MTCT Page there were entered the data regarding:

a)Distribution of HIV+ pregnant women by treatment regimen (Table 9)

b)Distribution of HIV+ pregnant women by infant feeding method (Table 10)

c)Percent of pregnancies of HIV+ women terminated by abortion (Table 11)

4)In the ART Treatment Page there were entered the data regarding:

a)Number of adults in need for ART receiving ART: The information was imported from EPP2009v and adjusted to data for both banks (In EPP2009v the data regarding ART Treatment only for the right bank was entered). The enrollment targets in ART treatment of Global Fund to fight Tuberculosis, AIDS and Malaria were entered till 2012 and the option “Linear projection of past 3 years” was used with 2010 as initial point. (Table 12).

5)In the Child Treatment section there were entered the data regarding:

a)The number of children (0 – 15) who received ART (Table 13)

b)The number of children (0 – 15) who received cotrimoxazole (Table 13)

c)The percentage of infants diagnosed with PCR (Table 14)

6)In the Treatment Cost Section in AIM there were entered the data regarding:

a)Treatment costs per patient per year (Table 15)

b)Service delivery costs (per in-patient day / out-patient visit), (Table 16)

c)Service delivery requirements (per patient per year) (Table 17)

7)In the Impacts Section there were entered the data regarding (Table 18):

a)TB incidence without HIV (per 1000)

b)Percent pop with latent TB

c)TB incidence with HIV (%)

After the data were entered, the Uncertainty Analysis in Spectrum with 1,000 curves were made.

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Annex 1

Table 2 Prevalence among officially registered IDU (1995 - 2009 Years)

1995 / 1996 / 1997 / 1998 / 1999 / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009
Median Prevalence / 0.1 / 2.3 / 15.4 / 20.4 / 22.3 / 19.9 / 20.5 / 19.3 / 19.2 / 20.9 / 17.2 / 16.3 / 12.6 / 24.9 / 25.2
Mean Prevalence / 0.1 / 2.3 / 15.4 / 20.4 / 22.3 / 19.9 / 20.5 / 19.3 / 19.2 / 20.9 / 17.2 / 16.3 / 12.6 / 24.9 / 25.2
National (%) / 0.1 / 2.3 / 15.4 / 20.4 / 22.3 / 19.9 / 20.5 / 19.3 / 19.2 / 20.9 / 17.2 / 16.3 / 12.6 / 24.9 / 25.2
(N) / 1350 / 1725 / 2098 / 2916 / 3240 / 3492 / 3954 / 4336 / 4523 / 4456 / 4555 / 4465 / 4827 / 3444 / 3354

Source: Republican Narcological Dispensary

Table 3 Prevalence among MSM (1995 – 2009 years)

2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009
Median Prevalence / - / 1.7 / 2.5 / - / - / 4.8 / - / -
Mean Prevalence / - / 1.7 / 2.5 / - / - / 4.8 / - / -
Chisinau (%) / - / 1.7 / 2.5 / 4.8 / - / -
(N) / - / 118 / 121 / 83 / - / -

Source: National Centre of Health Management, BSS Surveys 2003/2004, 2007

Table 4 Prevalence among CSW (1995 - 2009)

2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010
Median Prevalence / 4.6 / 8.5 / - / - / 2.9 / - / - / -
Mean Prevalence / 4.6 / 8.5 / - / - / 10.87 / - / - / -
Chisinau (%) / 4.6 / 8.5 / - / - / 2.9 / - / - / -
(N) / 150 / 151 / - / - / 243 / - / - / -
Balti (%) / - / - / - / - / 32.8 / - / - / -
(N) / - / - / - / - / 122 / - / - / -

Source: National Centre of Health Management, BSS Surveys 2003/2004, 2007

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Table 5 HIV prevalence among general population (2000 – 2009)

2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009
Median Prevalence / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.1 / 0.13 / 0.16 / 0.15
Mean Prevalence / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.11 / 0.11 / 0.15 / 0.13 / 0.22 / 0.2
Chișinău (%) / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.05 / 0.08 / 0.1 / 0.13 / 0.16 / 0.15
(N) / 975 / 2218 / 4586 / 10868 / 13018 / 10578 / 11553 / 13182 / 13918 / 13410
Bălti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.53 / 0.37 / 0.63 / 0.25 / 0.72 / 0.81
(N) / - / - / - / - / 1502 / 1615 / 1903 / 1982 / 2217 / 2104
Anenii - Noi (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0.11 / 0.4 / 0.09 / 0 / 0.21
(N) / - / - / - / - / 849 / 894 / 1009 / 1047 / 1098 / 970
Basarabeasca (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0.33 / 0.76 / 0.83 / 0.36
(N) / - / - / - / - / 167 / 251 / 304 / 263 / 240 / 275
Briceni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.23 / 0 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 276 / 518 / 541 / 871 / 672 / 766
Cahul (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.11 / 0 / 0.34 / 0 / 0.12 / 0.31
(N) / - / - / - / - / 926 / 1223 / 1755 / 1540 / 1708 / 1297
Cantemir (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.31 / 0 / 0.14 / 0 / 0.13 / 0.26
(N) / - / - / - / - / 325 / 557 / 711 / 690 / 761 / 767
Calarasi (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.12 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 839 / 832 / 775 / 668 / 696 / 830
Causeni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.32 / 0.14 / 0.11 / 0.22 / 0.51 / 0.2
(N) / - / - / - / - / 630 / 691 / 917 / 927 / 988 / 1018
Cimislia (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0.19 / 0.42 / 0 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 586 / 585 / 523 / 479 / 491 / 575
Criuleni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.27 / 0.13 / 0.11 / 0.31 / 0.19 / 0.28
(N) / - / - / - / - / 372 / 772 / 887 / 954 / 1081 / 1075
Donduseni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.29 / 0.22 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 350 / 446 / 403 / 437 / 340 / 399
Drochia (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.16 / 0 / 0 / 0.18 / 0.27 / 0.33
(N) / - / - / - / - / 629 / 789 / 900 / 541 / 743 / 916
Edinet (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.17 / 0 / 0.12 / 0.1 / 0.25 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 582 / 1107 / 849 / 960 / 806 / 906
Falesti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.17 / 0.14 / 0.25 / 0 / 0.53 / 0.29
(N) / - / - / - / - / 591 / 734 / 797 / 782 / 950 / 1020
Floresti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.17 / 0.13 / 0 / 0.12 / 0.36 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 595 / 780 / 800 / 826 / 832 / 908
Glodeni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.14 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.42 / 0.49
(N) / - / - / - / - / 691 / 633 / 547 / 642 / 710 / 612
Hincesti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0.08 / 0.07 / 0.29 / 0.15 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 883 / 1315 / 1400 / 1394 / 1308 / 1349
Ialoveni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0.16 / 0.16 / 0.25 / 0.14
(N) / - / - / - / - / 1146 / 1186 / 1213 / 1258 / 1187 / 1449
Leova (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0.45 / 0 / 0.18 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 108 / 372 / 449 / 484 / 542 / 513
Nisporeni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0.13 / 0 / 0 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 402 / 778 / 782 / 691 / 625 / 754
Ocnita (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.93 / 0 / 0.26 / 0.23 / 0 / 1.24
(N) / - / - / - / - / 215 / 361 / 387 / 431 / 400 / 403
Orhei (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0.27 / 0 / 0.13 / 0.25 / 0.17
(N) / - / - / - / - / 1775 / 1501 / 1515 / 1555 / 1605 / 1777
Rezina (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.24 / 1.45
(N) / - / - / - / - / 233 / 405 / 394 / 492 / 417 / 276
Riscani (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.45 / 0.38 / 0.14 / 0.14 / 0.14 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 441 / 786 / 739 / 715 / 690 / 704
Singerei (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.16 / 0.35 / 0.33 / 0.45 / 0.36 / 0.25
(N) / - / - / - / - / 625 / 867 / 1224 / 1110 / 1104 / 1201
Soroca (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.15 / 0.11 / 0.1 / 0 / 0.2 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 670 / 881 / 956 / 975 / 1012 / 1007
Straseni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.25 / 0.12 / 0 / 0 / 0.29 / 0.39
(N) / - / - / - / - / 794 / 817 / 1041 / 1026 / 1045 / 1020
Soldanesti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.19 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 341 / 305 / 392 / 382 / 532 / 472
Stefan Voda (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.17 / 0 / 0.37 / 0 / 0.13 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 584 / 537 / 816 / 777 / 774 / 752
Taraclia (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.46 / 0.45 / 0 / 0 / 0.19 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 220 / 444 / 482 / 494 / 533 / 523
Telenesti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0.24 / 0.12 / 0.17 / 0.28 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 662 / 827 / 811 / 589 / 717 / 729
Ungheni (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0.09 / 0.17 / 0.16 / 0.26 / 0.2
(N) / - / - / - / - / 688 / 1086 / 1207 / 1241 / 1523 / 1514
Comrat (%) / - / - / - / - / 0.3 / 0.11 / 0 / 0.11 / 0.32 / 0.3
(N) / - / - / - / - / 660 / 903 / 1082 / 924 / 1248 / 1007
Ceadir Lunga (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0.17 / 0 / 0.12 / 0 / 0.11
(N) / - / - / - / - / 516 / 588 / 634 / 808 / 728 / 883
Vulcanesti (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.29 / 0
(N) / - / - / - / - / 10 / 230 / 268 / 290 / 344 / 348
Centrul SIDA (%) / - / - / - / - / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / -
(N) / - / - / - / - / 36 / 90 / 140 / 216 / 190 / -

Source: National Centre of Preventive Medicine, AIDS Centre. HIV prevalence among pregnant women tested during the years 2000 to 2009.

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Table 6 ART Treatment data for 2003 – 2009 (includes the estimations till 2015), Republic of Moldova

2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
First year survival on ART
Percent surviving 1st year of ART (%) / 0 / 50 / 50 / 60 / 81 / 76 / 88 / 88 / 88 / 88 / 88 / 88 / 88
National adult ART coverage
Number of adults on ART / 1-st line / 19 / 90 / 171 / 247 / 471 / 629 / 711 / 828 / 944 / 1061 / 1177 / 1294 / 1410
Number of adults on ART / 2-nd line / 0 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 10 / 24 / 31 / 131 / 230 / 330 / 430 / 529 / 629
TOTAL / 19 / 90 / 173 / 251 / 481 / 653 / 742 / 959 / 1174 / 1391 / 1607 / 1823 / 2039
Distribution of ART among sub-populations / Number
IDU / 1-st line / 14 / 57 / 82 / 113 / 217 / 300 / 310 / 370 / 431 / 490 / 551 / 611 / 672
MSM / 1-st line / 1 / 2 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 9 / 12 / 16 / 20 / 25 / 29 / 33 / 37
Sex workers / 1-st line / 0 / 6 / 10 / 14 / 27 / 36 / 39 / 46 / 52 / 59 / 65 / 72 / 78
General Population / 1-st line / 4 / 25 / 73 / 112 / 218 / 284 / 350 / 396 / 441 / 487 / 532 / 578 / 623
Distribution of ART among sub-populations / Number
IDU / 2-nd line / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 54 / 103 / 153 / 202 / 250 / 300
MSM / 2-nd line / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9
Sex workers / 2-nd line / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 7 / 13 / 19 / 24 / 30 / 36
General Population / 2-nd line / 0 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 7 / 19 / 23 / 67 / 110 / 152 / 197 / 241 / 284

Table 7 HIV prevalence among IDU’s used for calibration

% HIV / Year / Standard error / Sample size
Survey 1 / 29.23% / 2001 / 4.20% / 543
Survey 2 / 21.00% / 2007 / 4.17% / 552
Survey 3 / 21.00% / 2009 / 2.81% / 663

Source: National Centre of Health Management, BSS Surveys 2001, 2007, 2009

Table 8 Imported HIV Incidence from EPP2009v into Spectrum v3

2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Incidence / 0.05 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.08 / 0.09 / 0.10 / 0.11 / 0.12

Table 9 Distribution of HIV+ pregnant women by treatment regimen, both banks of DniesterRiver, Republic of Moldova

2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Single dose nevirapine
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Dual ARV
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 21 / 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Triple ARV prophylaxis
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 10 / 58 / 62 / 81 / 129 / 109 / 150 / 150 / 180 / 180 / 180 / 180
Triple ARV Treatment
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Total
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 31 / 63 / 62 / 82 / 129 / 109 / 150 / 150 / 180 / 180 / 180 / 180

Table 10 Distribution of HIV+ pregnant women by infant feeding method, both banks of DniesterRiver, Republic of Moldova

2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Mixed feeding
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 3 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Exclusive breastfeeding
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Replacement feeding
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 24 / 27 / 63 / 62 / 74 / 126 / 119 / 129 / 139 / 150 / 160 / 170 / 180
Total
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 25 / 31 / 63 / 63 / 77 / 126 / 119 / 129 / 139 / 150 / 160 / 170 / 180

Table 11 Percent of pregnancies to HIV+ women terminated by abortion, both banks of DniesterRiver, Republic of Moldova

2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Number / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 6 / 14 / 8 / 17 / 9 / 18 / 18 / 19 / 19 / 19 / 20 / 20

Table 12 Number of adults in need for ART receiving ART, both banks of DniesterRiver, Republic of Moldova

2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Proportion surviving first year on ART / 0 / 0.5 / 0.5 / 0.6 / 0.81 / 0.76 / 0.88 / 0.88 / 0.88 / 0.88 / 0.88 / 0.88 / 0.88
Number of adults receiving first line ART / 19 / 90 / 171 / 247 / 471 / 629 / 909 / 1,172 / 1,435 / 1,698 / 1,961 / 2,224 / 2,487
Number of adults receiving second line ART / 0 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 10 / 24 / 41 / 55 / 69 / 83 / 96 / 110 / 124

Table 13 Number of children (0 – 15) who received ART and Cotrimoxazole, both banks of DniesterRiver, Republic of Moldova

2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Number receiving cotrimoxazole / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 33 / 34 / 34 / 35 / 36 / 36 / 37
Number Receiving ART / 4 / 5 / 7 / 14 / 19 / 29 / 35 / 36 / 37 / 39 / 40 / 41 / 42

Table 14 Percentage of infants diagnosed with PCR, both banks of DniesterRiver, Republic of Moldova

2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
PCR / 0 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100 / 100

Table 15 Treatment costs per patient per year, USD

2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
First line ART drugs / 823 / 823 / 823 / 823 / 823 / 823 / 823 / 823 / 823
Second line ART drugs / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00 / 1,975.00
Additional ART drug costs for TB patients (male) / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00
Additional ART drug costs for TB patients (Female) / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00 / 2,887.00
Lab costs for ART treatment / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2 / 76.2
Drug and lab costs for opportunistic infections / 221 / 221 / 221 / 221 / 221 / 221 / 221 / 221 / 221
Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis / 42 / 42 / 42 / 42 / 42 / 42 / 42 / 42 / 42
TB prophylaxis / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00 / 1,573.00
Nutrition supplements in first six months / 357 / 357 / 357 / 357 / 357 / 357 / 357 / 357 / 357

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Table 16 Service delivery costs (per in-patient day / out-patient visit)

2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Cost per in-patient day / 21 / 21 / 21 / 21 / 21 / 21 / 21 / 21
Cost per out-patient visit / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2

Table 17 Service delivery requirements (per patient per year)

2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
ART: in-patient days / 472 / 472 / 472 / 472 / 472 / 472 / 472 / 472 / 472
ART: out-patient visit / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3 / 34.3
OI treatment: in-patient days / 151 / 151 / 151 / 151 / 151 / 151 / 151 / 151 / 151
OI treatment: out-patient days / 23 / 23 / 23 / 23 / 23 / 23 / 23 / 23 / 23

Table 18 Entered data into the “Impacts” Section

2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
TB incidence without HIV (per 1000) / 1.2 / 1.1 / 1 / 1 / 1.08 / 1.17 / 1.25 / 1.33 / 1.42 / 1.5
Percent pop with latent TB / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70 / 70
TB incidence with HIV (%) / 3.7 / 3.3 / 4.8 / 4.2 / 4.25 / 4.3 / 4.35 / 4.4 / 4.45 / 4.5

3.EPP Graphic Outputs

EPP projections for 2009-2015

Total Population / IDU
Year / %HIV+ / Num HIV+ / Population / %HIV+ / Num HIV+ / Population
2009 / 0.53 / 15,832 / 2,996,036 / 23.37 / 5,843 / 25,000
2010 / 0.55 / 16,548 / 2,989,234 / 23.5 / 5,806 / 24,708
2011 / 0.59 / 17,460 / 2,982,358 / 23.69 / 5,772 / 24,365
2012 / 0.62 / 18,553 / 2,975,326 / 23.92 / 5,728 / 23,944
2013 / 0.67 / 19,837 / 2,968,163 / 24.1 / 5,659 / 23,479
2014 / 0.72 / 21,352 / 2,960,896 / 24.21 / 5,572 / 23,011
2015 / 0.78 / 23,153 / 2,953,522 / 24.3 / 5,479 / 22,550
MSM / LSC / General Population
Year / %HIV+ / Num HIV+ / Population / %HIV+ / Num HIV+ / Population / %HIV+ / Num HIV+ / Population
2009 / 4.68 / 103 / 2,200 / 12.26 / 736 / 6,000 / 0.31 / 9,150 / 2,962,836
2010 / 4.89 / 107 / 2,192 / 10.67 / 639 / 5,992 / 0.34 / 9,995 / 2,956,341
2011 / 5.01 / 109 / 2,185 / 9.26 / 554 / 5,987 / 0.37 / 11,024 / 2,949,822
2012 / 5.04 / 110 / 2,177 / 8.02 / 480 / 5,982 / 0.42 / 12,235 / 2,943,223
2013 / 4.99 / 108 / 2,169 / 6.94 / 415 / 5,976 / 0.46 / 13,655 / 2,936,538
2014 / 4.88 / 106 / 2,162 / 6 / 358 / 5,970 / 0.52 / 15,317 / 2,929,754
2015 / 4.72 / 102 / 2,154 / 5.19 / 309 / 5,961 / 0.59 / 17,262 / 2,922,857

1

4.Spectrum 2009 output data.

After having all the input data entered, projections made and calibrations applied, EPP was switched to the Results tab where HIV incidence was selected.

Spectrum has generated two sets of output data, based on selected treatment eligibility criteria (CD4<200 and CD4<350). The EPP 2009 file has been read twice for each respective projection in Spectrum. All additional input data entered in the required sections (Epidemiology, HIV Age Distribution, MTCT, ART, etc) have been identical. Entry data has been presented in absolute numbers; % values could not be used due to difficulties in establishing denominators retrospectively for certain indicators. Spectrum has generated output estimations for the following:

Republic of Moldova national projections for both banks (CD4<200 / CD4<350)

1)Total HIV population

  • Number of new HIV infections
  • Annual AIDS deaths

2)Adults 15+

  • HIV population
  • New HIV infections
  • HIV Incidence (15-49)
  • Annual AIDS deaths
  • Total need for ART treatment
  • Total number receiving ART
  • Number in need of first line therapy
  • Number newly needing first line therapy
  • Number receiving first line therapy
  • Number receiving second line therapy
  • Unmet need for first line therapy
  • Total adult population 15+

3)Children 0-14:

  • HIV population
  • New HIV infections
  • Annual AIDS deaths
  • Total population 0-14
  • Children needing cotrimoxazole
  • Children receiving cotrimoxazole
  • Children needing ART
  • Children receiving ART
  • PMTCT
  • HIV Population 15-17

4)Orphans

  • Maternal Orphans
  • Paternal Orphans
  • Double Orphans
  • Total Orphans
  • All AIDS Orphans

Variations have been registered in outputs depending on the treatment eligibility criteria (CD4<200 or CD4<350); while certain projected differences like No of people in need of treatment has increased in the case of CD4<350, as expected, other variations in annual incidence, annual deaths etc are less clear, as expectations would be to have lower annual deaths if people enter into treatment.

The Spectrum output data was exported to the tables below:

1

HIV/AIDS Summary - Total
2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Republic of Moldova15.04.2010 national projection for both banks CD4<350
HIV population
Total / 11,160 / 11,823 / 12,407 / 12,870 / 12,964 / 13,146 / 13,356 / 13,608 / 13,922 / 14,300 / 14,825 / 15,525 / 16,344 / 17,295 / 18,399 / 19,681
Males / 7,941 / 8,402 / 8,804 / 9,121 / 9,168 / 9,280 / 9,411 / 9,572 / 9,778 / 10,029 / 10,386 / 10,868 / 11,434 / 12,093 / 12,860 / 13,749
Females / 3,219 / 3,421 / 3,602 / 3,750 / 3,796 / 3,866 / 3,946 / 4,036 / 4,144 / 4,271 / 4,439 / 4,657 / 4,910 / 5,202 / 5,540 / 5,931
Prevalence (15-49) / 0.4 / 0.43 / 0.45 / 0.46 / 0.46 / 0.47 / 0.48 / 0.49 / 0.51 / 0.53 / 0.55 / 0.59 / 0.63 / 0.68 / 0.74 / 0.81
Number of new HIV infections
Total / 1,318 / 1,322 / 1,378 / 1,376 / 1,145 / 1,260 / 1,318 / 1,348 / 1,432 / 1,506 / 1,615 / 1,742 / 1,880 / 2,036 / 2,221 / 2,436
Males / 938 / 941 / 982 / 980 / 816 / 901 / 943 / 965 / 1,025 / 1,076 / 1,153 / 1,243 / 1,340 / 1,450 / 1,580 / 1,730
Females / 380 / 381 / 397 / 395 / 328 / 358 / 375 / 383 / 408 / 429 / 462 / 499 / 540 / 586 / 641 / 705
Annual AIDS deaths
Total / 321 / 438 / 551 / 659 / 803 / 845 / 886 / 887 / 917 / 930 / 896 / 850 / 869 / 893 / 919 / 953
Males / 237 / 325 / 408 / 485 / 592 / 621 / 650 / 649 / 668 / 676 / 650 / 615 / 627 / 644 / 661 / 685
Females / 83 / 114 / 143 / 174 / 211 / 223 / 236 / 239 / 249 / 254 / 246 / 234 / 242 / 249 / 258 / 268
Republic of Moldova15.04.2010 national projection for both banks CD4<200
HIV population
Total / 11,223 / 11,887 / 12,471 / 12,933 / 13,030 / 13,217 / 13,432 / 13,689 / 14,013 / 14,401 / 14,933 / 15,643 / 16,477 / 17,444 / 18,564 / 19,861
Males / 7,966 / 8,426 / 8,827 / 9,139 / 9,190 / 9,305 / 9,438 / 9,601 / 9,813 / 10,070 / 10,428 / 10,911 / 11,482 / 12,146 / 12,918 / 13,812
Females / 3,257 / 3,461 / 3,643 / 3,794 / 3,841 / 3,913 / 3,994 / 4,088 / 4,200 / 4,331 / 4,505 / 4,732 / 4,995 / 5,298 / 5,646 / 6,049
Prevalence (15-49) / 0.4 / 0.43 / 0.45 / 0.46 / 0.47 / 0.47 / 0.48 / 0.49 / 0.51 / 0.53 / 0.56 / 0.59 / 0.63 / 0.68 / 0.74 / 0.81
Number of new HIV infections
Total / 1,322 / 1,329 / 1,386 / 1,376 / 1,087 / 1,232 / 1,304 / 1,339 / 1,417 / 1,498 / 1,607 / 1,733 / 1,871 / 2,026 / 2,210 / 2,424
Males / 938 / 944 / 985 / 978 / 774 / 880 / 931 / 956 / 1,012 / 1,069 / 1,145 / 1,234 / 1,330 / 1,440 / 1,568 / 1,718
Females / 383 / 385 / 401 / 398 / 313 / 352 / 373 / 383 / 406 / 430 / 462 / 499 / 540 / 587 / 642 / 706
Annual AIDS deaths
Total / 323 / 441 / 555 / 656 / 739 / 808 / 864 / 868 / 888 / 908 / 877 / 825 / 841 / 861 / 887 / 919
Males / 238 / 326 / 410 / 484 / 544 / 594 / 633 / 635 / 647 / 660 / 638 / 601 / 611 / 624 / 642 / 664
Females / 84 / 115 / 145 / 172 / 194 / 214 / 231 / 233 / 241 / 248 / 239 / 224 / 230 / 237 / 245 / 254
Adults 15+ Summary - Total
2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Republic of Moldova15.04.2010 national projection for both banks CD4<350
HIV population
Total / 11,105 / 11,759 / 12,334 / 12,790 / 12,883 / 13,070 / 13,281 / 13,536 / 13,853 / 14,233 / 14,760 / 15,463 / 16,287 / 17,242 / 18,352 / 19,637
Males / 7,913 / 8,369 / 8,768 / 9,080 / 9,127 / 9,241 / 9,373 / 9,536 / 9,743 / 9,996 / 10,354 / 10,837 / 11,406 / 12,066 / 12,836 / 13,727
Females / 3,192 / 3,389 / 3,566 / 3,710 / 3,756 / 3,828 / 3,908 / 4,000 / 4,110 / 4,238 / 4,407 / 4,626 / 4,881 / 5,176 / 5,516 / 5,910
Adult prevalence / 0.33 / 0.35 / 0.37 / 0.39 / 0.39 / 0.4 / 0.41 / 0.42 / 0.43 / 0.44 / 0.46 / 0.48 / 0.51 / 0.55 / 0.59 / 0.63
New HIV infections
Total / 1,289 / 1,294 / 1,350 / 1,349 / 1,127 / 1,255 / 1,312 / 1,347 / 1,431 / 1,504 / 1,613 / 1,740 / 1,878 / 2,035 / 2,219 / 2,434
Males / 923 / 926 / 967 / 967 / 807 / 899 / 940 / 964 / 1,024 / 1,076 / 1,153 / 1,242 / 1,339 / 1,449 / 1,579 / 1,729
Females / 366 / 367 / 383 / 382 / 319 / 356 / 372 / 382 / 407 / 429 / 461 / 498 / 539 / 585 / 640 / 704
Incidence (15-49) / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.03 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.05 / 0.05 / 0.05 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.07 / 0.08
Annual AIDS deaths
Total / 305 / 423 / 536 / 644 / 791 / 837 / 880 / 883 / 914 / 928 / 894 / 847 / 867 / 892 / 918 / 953
Males / 229 / 317 / 400 / 478 / 586 / 618 / 647 / 647 / 667 / 675 / 649 / 614 / 626 / 643 / 661 / 685
Females / 76 / 106 / 135 / 166 / 205 / 219 / 233 / 237 / 247 / 253 / 245 / 233 / 241 / 248 / 258 / 268
Total need for ART
Total / 831 / 1,104 / 1,361 / 3,591 / 3,934 / 4,234 / 4,491 / 4,745 / 4,971 / 5,190 / 5,456 / 5,792 / 6,141 / 6,513 / 6,920 / 7,367
Male / 577 / 765 / 940 / 2,616 / 2,854 / 3,061 / 3,234 / 3,405 / 3,554 / 3,698 / 3,877 / 4,106 / 4,345 / 4,600 / 4,881 / 5,191
Female / 254 / 339 / 421 / 975 / 1,080 / 1,174 / 1,257 / 1,341 / 1,417 / 1,492 / 1,580 / 1,686 / 1,797 / 1,913 / 2,039 / 2,176
Total number receiving ART
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 19 / 90 / 173 / 251 / 481 / 653 / 742 / 1,058 / 1,373 / 1,689 / 2,004 / 2,319 / 2,635
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 14 / 65 / 125 / 181 / 345 / 467 / 529 / 753 / 975 / 1,197 / 1,417 / 1,637 / 1,858
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 5 / 25 / 48 / 70 / 136 / 186 / 213 / 305 / 398 / 492 / 587 / 682 / 777
Coverage (%) / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.5 / 2.2 / 4 / 5.4 / 9.9 / 12.9 / 13.9 / 18.8 / 23 / 26.7 / 29.8 / 32.5 / 35.8
Number in need of first line therapy
Total / 831 / 1,104 / 1,361 / 3,591 / 3,934 / 4,233 / 4,488 / 4,738 / 4,954 / 5,162 / 5,359 / 5,562 / 5,779 / 6,018 / 6,292 / 6,607
Male / 577 / 765 / 940 / 2,616 / 2,854 / 3,060 / 3,232 / 3,400 / 3,541 / 3,678 / 3,807 / 3,941 / 4,087 / 4,248 / 4,436 / 4,654
Female / 254 / 339 / 421 / 975 / 1,080 / 1,173 / 1,256 / 1,339 / 1,413 / 1,484 / 1,552 / 1,621 / 1,692 / 1,770 / 1,856 / 1,953
Number newly needing first line therapy
Total / 474 / 573 / 656 / 2,714 / 1,114 / 1,109 / 1,106 / 1,095 / 1,082 / 1,104 / 1,113 / 1,122 / 1,149 / 1,189 / 1,242 / 1,308
Male / 338 / 409 / 468 / 2,031 / 810 / 804 / 799 / 788 / 777 / 792 / 798 / 803 / 822 / 850 / 888 / 936
Female / 137 / 165 / 188 / 683 / 304 / 305 / 307 / 306 / 305 / 312 / 315 / 319 / 327 / 338 / 354 / 372
Number receiving first line therapy
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 19 / 90 / 171 / 247 / 471 / 629 / 711 / 894 / 1,077 / 1,260 / 1,442 / 1,625 / 1,808
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 14 / 65 / 124 / 178 / 338 / 450 / 507 / 635 / 763 / 891 / 1,018 / 1,146 / 1,274
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 5 / 25 / 47 / 69 / 133 / 179 / 204 / 259 / 314 / 369 / 424 / 479 / 534
Coverage (%) / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0.5 / 2.2 / 3.9 / 5.3 / 9.7 / 12.4 / 13.4 / 15.9 / 18.1 / 19.9 / 21.5 / 22.7 / 24.5
Number receiving second line therapy
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 10 / 24 / 31 / 164 / 296 / 429 / 562 / 694 / 827
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 3 / 7 / 17 / 22 / 117 / 211 / 306 / 399 / 492 / 584
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 47 / 85 / 123 / 163 / 202 / 243
Unmet need for first line therapy
Total / 831 / 1,104 / 1,361 / 3,582 / 3,879 / 4,103 / 4,279 / 4,379 / 4,404 / 4,492 / 4,556 / 4,577 / 4,610 / 4,667 / 4,759 / 4,890
Male / 577 / 765 / 940 / 2,609 / 2,814 / 2,965 / 3,081 / 3,141 / 3,146 / 3,197 / 3,233 / 3,239 / 3,256 / 3,291 / 3,352 / 3,444
Female / 254 / 339 / 421 / 973 / 1,065 / 1,138 / 1,198 / 1,239 / 1,258 / 1,295 / 1,323 / 1,338 / 1,354 / 1,376 / 1,406 / 1,447
Adult population 15+
Total / 3,330,419 / 3,320,983 / 3,310,427 / 3,299,391 / 3,287,973 / 3,276,687 / 3,265,414 / 3,254,098 / 3,242,046 / 3,228,151 / 3,211,840 / 3,193,283 / 3,172,112 / 3,148,526 / 3,123,304 / 3,097,354
Male / 1,581,635 / 1,578,446 / 1,574,467 / 1,569,917 / 1,564,780 / 1,559,460 / 1,554,005 / 1,548,485 / 1,542,671 / 1,536,044 / 1,528,246 / 1,519,284 / 1,508,883 / 1,497,108 / 1,484,384 / 1,471,226
Female / 1,748,784 / 1,742,537 / 1,735,960 / 1,729,474 / 1,723,193 / 1,717,226 / 1,711,409 / 1,705,614 / 1,699,374 / 1,692,107 / 1,683,594 / 1,673,998 / 1,663,229 / 1,651,417 / 1,638,920 / 1,626,129
Adults 15+ Summary - Total
2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Republic of Moldova 15.04.2010 national projection for both banks CD4<200
HIV population
Total / 11,169 / 11,823 / 12,399 / 12,854 / 12,950 / 13,142 / 13,358 / 13,619 / 13,945 / 14,336 / 14,869 / 15,583 / 16,420 / 17,392 / 18,518 / 19,818
Males / 7,939 / 8,394 / 8,791 / 9,099 / 9,149 / 9,267 / 9,401 / 9,566 / 9,779 / 10,037 / 10,396 / 10,881 / 11,454 / 12,121 / 12,894 / 13,790
Females / 3,230 / 3,429 / 3,608 / 3,754 / 3,801 / 3,875 / 3,957 / 4,053 / 4,166 / 4,299 / 4,474 / 4,702 / 4,967 / 5,272 / 5,623 / 6,028
Adult prevalence / 0.34 / 0.36 / 0.37 / 0.39 / 0.39 / 0.4 / 0.41 / 0.42 / 0.43 / 0.44 / 0.46 / 0.49 / 0.52 / 0.55 / 0.59 / 0.64
New HIV infections
Total / 1,293 / 1,301 / 1,358 / 1,350 / 1,070 / 1,228 / 1,298 / 1,337 / 1,416 / 1,497 / 1,605 / 1,731 / 1,869 / 2,024 / 2,208 / 2,421
Males / 924 / 930 / 971 / 965 / 765 / 878 / 928 / 955 / 1,011 / 1,068 / 1,144 / 1,233 / 1,330 / 1,439 / 1,567 / 1,717
Females / 370 / 372 / 387 / 385 / 305 / 350 / 370 / 382 / 405 / 429 / 461 / 498 / 539 / 586 / 641 / 705
Incidence (15-49) / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.03 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.04 / 0.05 / 0.05 / 0.05 / 0.06 / 0.06 / 0.07 / 0.08
Annual AIDS deaths
Total / 308 / 426 / 539 / 641 / 726 / 800 / 858 / 864 / 885 / 906 / 874 / 823 / 839 / 859 / 886 / 918
Males / 231 / 318 / 402 / 477 / 538 / 590 / 630 / 633 / 646 / 659 / 637 / 600 / 610 / 623 / 642 / 664
Females / 77 / 107 / 137 / 165 / 188 / 210 / 228 / 231 / 240 / 247 / 238 / 223 / 229 / 236 / 244 / 254
Total need for ART
Total / 838 / 1,112 / 1,370 / 1,608 / 1,829 / 2,023 / 2,195 / 2,390 / 2,586 / 2,780 / 3,021 / 3,334 / 3,656 / 3,990 / 4,339 / 4,704
Male / 580 / 768 / 944 / 1,104 / 1,251 / 1,379 / 1,492 / 1,622 / 1,753 / 1,881 / 2,041 / 2,251 / 2,467 / 2,692 / 2,925 / 3,169
Female / 257 / 344 / 427 / 504 / 578 / 644 / 703 / 769 / 834 / 899 / 980 / 1,083 / 1,189 / 1,299 / 1,414 / 1,534
Total number receiving ART
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 19 / 90 / 173 / 251 / 481 / 653 / 742 / 1,058 / 1,373 / 1,689 / 2,004 / 2,319 / 2,635
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 13 / 62 / 118 / 171 / 326 / 443 / 502 / 717 / 930 / 1,143 / 1,355 / 1,567 / 1,779
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 6 / 28 / 55 / 80 / 155 / 210 / 240 / 341 / 443 / 546 / 649 / 752 / 856
Coverage (%) / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.1 / 4.7 / 8.2 / 10.9 / 19.3 / 24.3 / 25.6 / 33.3 / 39.3 / 44.2 / 48.1 / 51.3 / 56
Number in need of first line therapy
Total / 838 / 1,112 / 1,370 / 1,608 / 1,829 / 2,022 / 2,192 / 2,383 / 2,569 / 2,752 / 2,924 / 3,104 / 3,293 / 3,495 / 3,711 / 3,943
Male / 580 / 768 / 944 / 1,104 / 1,251 / 1,378 / 1,490 / 1,617 / 1,741 / 1,862 / 1,974 / 2,093 / 2,218 / 2,352 / 2,496 / 2,651
Female / 257 / 344 / 427 / 504 / 578 / 643 / 702 / 766 / 828 / 890 / 949 / 1,011 / 1,075 / 1,142 / 1,215 / 1,292
Number newly needing first line therapy
Total / 478 / 577 / 660 / 727 / 772 / 797 / 821 / 828 / 826 / 861 / 869 / 868 / 883 / 904 / 931 / 966
Male / 339 / 410 / 470 / 518 / 549 / 566 / 583 / 587 / 584 / 608 / 612 / 610 / 620 / 634 / 652 / 675
Female / 139 / 167 / 190 / 209 / 223 / 230 / 238 / 242 / 242 / 253 / 257 / 258 / 263 / 270 / 279 / 290
Number receiving first line therapy
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 19 / 90 / 171 / 247 / 471 / 629 / 711 / 894 / 1,077 / 1,260 / 1,442 / 1,625 / 1,808
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 13 / 62 / 117 / 168 / 320 / 426 / 481 / 604 / 726 / 849 / 971 / 1,093 / 1,216
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 6 / 28 / 54 / 79 / 151 / 203 / 230 / 290 / 351 / 411 / 471 / 532 / 592
Coverage (%) / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1.1 / 4.7 / 8.1 / 10.8 / 18.9 / 23.4 / 24.5 / 28.1 / 30.8 / 33 / 34.6 / 35.9 / 38.4
Number receiving second line therapy
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 4 / 10 / 24 / 31 / 164 / 296 / 429 / 562 / 694 / 827
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 3 / 7 / 17 / 21 / 113 / 204 / 294 / 385 / 474 / 563
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 7 / 10 / 51 / 92 / 135 / 177 / 220 / 264
Unmet need for first line therapy
Total / 838 / 1,112 / 1,370 / 1,599 / 1,774 / 1,891 / 1,983 / 2,024 / 2,019 / 2,082 / 2,121 / 2,118 / 2,125 / 2,144 / 2,177 / 2,227
Male / 580 / 768 / 944 / 1,097 / 1,213 / 1,287 / 1,345 / 1,368 / 1,360 / 1,399 / 1,421 / 1,416 / 1,418 / 1,429 / 1,450 / 1,483
Female / 257 / 344 / 427 / 502 / 562 / 604 / 638 / 657 / 659 / 683 / 700 / 702 / 707 / 715 / 727 / 744
Adult population 15+
Total / 3,330,412 / 3,320,974 / 3,310,415 / 3,299,382 / 3,288,029 / 3,276,780 / 3,265,528 / 3,254,232 / 3,242,207 / 3,228,335 / 3,212,043 / 3,193,509 / 3,172,366 / 3,148,812 / 3,123,622 / 3,097,706
Male / 1,581,631 / 1,578,441 / 1,574,461 / 1,569,912 / 1,564,823 / 1,559,531 / 1,554,091 / 1,548,585 / 1,542,791 / 1,536,179 / 1,528,392 / 1,519,443 / 1,509,057 / 1,497,300 / 1,484,592 / 1,471,453
Female / 1,748,781 / 1,742,533 / 1,735,954 / 1,729,470 / 1,723,206 / 1,717,249 / 1,711,437 / 1,705,647 / 1,699,416 / 1,692,156 / 1,683,651 / 1,674,067 / 1,663,310 / 1,651,512 / 1,639,029 / 1,626,253
Child 0-14 Summary - Total
2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Republic of Moldova 15.04.2010 national projection for both banks CD4<350
HIV population
Total / 54 / 64 / 73 / 80 / 82 / 76 / 75 / 72 / 69 / 67 / 64 / 62 / 58 / 52 / 47 / 43
Males / 28 / 33 / 37 / 40 / 41 / 38 / 38 / 36 / 35 / 33 / 32 / 31 / 29 / 26 / 24 / 22
Females / 27 / 32 / 36 / 40 / 41 / 38 / 37 / 36 / 34 / 33 / 32 / 31 / 29 / 26 / 24 / 21
New HIV infections
Total / 29 / 28 / 28 / 27 / 18 / 5 / 7 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Males / 15 / 15 / 14 / 14 / 9 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Females / 14 / 14 / 14 / 13 / 9 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Annual AIDS deaths
Total / 15 / 16 / 16 / 15 / 12 / 7 / 6 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 0
Males / 8 / 8 / 8 / 8 / 6 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0
Females / 7 / 8 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0
Population 0-14
Total / 979,657 / 930,405 / 877,292 / 825,012 / 778,741 / 738,152 / 703,460 / 674,849 / 651,274 / 632,388 / 618,426 / 609,431 / 605,621 / 605,829 / 608,881 / 613,956
Male / 491,310 / 465,796 / 438,432 / 411,771 / 388,532 / 368,417 / 351,412 / 337,506 / 326,048 / 316,828 / 310,028 / 305,749 / 304,164 / 304,716 / 306,792 / 309,923
Female / 488,347 / 464,609 / 438,860 / 413,241 / 390,208 / 369,735 / 352,049 / 337,343 / 325,225 / 315,561 / 308,397 / 303,683 / 301,457 / 301,112 / 302,089 / 304,032
Children needing cotrimoxazole
Total / 173 / 181 / 185 / 188 / 72 / 62 / 61 / 54 / 52 / 51 / 52 / 51 / 50 / 47 / 44 / 40
Male / 89 / 93 / 95 / 96 / 36 / 31 / 31 / 27 / 26 / 26 / 26 / 26 / 25 / 24 / 22 / 20
Female / 84 / 88 / 90 / 92 / 36 / 31 / 30 / 27 / 26 / 25 / 26 / 26 / 25 / 23 / 22 / 20
Children receiving cotrimoxazole
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 33 / 34 / 34 / 35 / 36 / 36 / 37
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 17 / 17 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 18 / 19
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 16 / 17 / 17 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 18
Children needing ART
Total / 26 / 30 / 33 / 35 / 34 / 30 / 30 / 30 / 30 / 33 / 43 / 44 / 44 / 42 / 41 / 42
Male / 13 / 15 / 17 / 17 / 17 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 16 / 22 / 22 / 22 / 21 / 21 / 21
Female / 13 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 17 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 16 / 22 / 22 / 22 / 21 / 20 / 21
Children receiving ART
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 5 / 7 / 14 / 19 / 29 / 35 / 36 / 37 / 39 / 40 / 41 / 42
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 7 / 10 / 15 / 18 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 20 / 21 / 21
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 14 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 20 / 21
PMTCT
Number of HIV+ pregnant women / 112 / 111 / 109 / 107 / 98 / 86 / 92 / 81 / 92 / 84 / 88 / 92 / 100 / 108 / 118 / 132
Mothers needing PMTCT / 95 / 94 / 92 / 91 / 83 / 73 / 78 / 69 / 78 / 71 / 74 / 78 / 85 / 92 / 100 / 112
Mothers receiving PMTCT / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 31 / 63 / 62 / 69 / 78 / 71 / 74 / 78 / 85 / 92 / 100 / 112
MTCT rate / 30 / 30 / 30 / 29 / 21 / 6 / 8 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
HIV population 15-17
Total / 20 / 17 / 17 / 18 / 16 / 16 / 17 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 22 / 24 / 29 / 35 / 42 / 47
Male / 4 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 3 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 8 / 10 / 13 / 14
Female / 16 / 14 / 14 / 14 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 14 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 19 / 21 / 25 / 29 / 33
Child 0-14 Summary - Total
2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015
Republic of Moldova 15.04.2010 national projection for both banks CD4<200
HIV population
Total / 54 / 64 / 72 / 79 / 81 / 75 / 74 / 70 / 68 / 65 / 63 / 61 / 57 / 52 / 47 / 43
Males / 27 / 32 / 36 / 40 / 41 / 38 / 37 / 35 / 34 / 33 / 32 / 30 / 28 / 26 / 23 / 21
Females / 26 / 31 / 36 / 39 / 40 / 37 / 37 / 35 / 34 / 33 / 32 / 30 / 28 / 26 / 23 / 21
New HIV infections
Total / 28 / 28 / 28 / 26 / 17 / 4 / 6 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2
Males / 15 / 14 / 14 / 14 / 9 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Females / 14 / 14 / 13 / 13 / 8 / 2 / 3 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Annual AIDS deaths
Total / 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 12 / 7 / 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 0
Males / 8 / 8 / 8 / 8 / 6 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0
Females / 7 / 8 / 8 / 7 / 6 / 4 / 3 / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0
Population 0-14
Total / 979,657 / 930,406 / 877,293 / 825,013 / 778,742 / 738,154 / 703,464 / 674,854 / 651,280 / 632,395 / 618,434 / 609,440 / 605,631 / 605,840 / 608,894 / 613,970
Male / 491,310 / 465,796 / 438,432 / 411,772 / 388,533 / 368,418 / 351,414 / 337,509 / 326,051 / 316,831 / 310,032 / 305,753 / 304,169 / 304,722 / 306,799 / 309,930
Female / 488,347 / 464,610 / 438,861 / 413,241 / 390,209 / 369,737 / 352,050 / 337,345 / 325,228 / 315,564 / 308,401 / 303,687 / 301,462 / 301,118 / 302,095 / 304,039
Children needing cotrimoxazole
Total / 171 / 179 / 183 / 185 / 71 / 61 / 59 / 53 / 51 / 50 / 51 / 51 / 49 / 46 / 43 / 40
Male / 88 / 92 / 94 / 95 / 36 / 31 / 30 / 26 / 26 / 25 / 26 / 25 / 25 / 23 / 22 / 20
Female / 83 / 87 / 89 / 91 / 35 / 30 / 29 / 26 / 25 / 25 / 26 / 25 / 24 / 23 / 21 / 20
Children receiving cotrimoxazole
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 33 / 34 / 34 / 35 / 36 / 36 / 37
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 2 / 17 / 17 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 18 / 19
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1 / 1 / 1 / 16 / 17 / 17 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 18
Children needing ART
Total / 25 / 30 / 33 / 34 / 34 / 30 / 29 / 29 / 30 / 33 / 43 / 44 / 43 / 41 / 41 / 42
Male / 13 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 17 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 16 / 21 / 22 / 22 / 21 / 21 / 21
Female / 13 / 15 / 16 / 17 / 17 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 15 / 16 / 22 / 22 / 22 / 21 / 20 / 21
Children receiving ART
Total / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 5 / 7 / 14 / 19 / 29 / 35 / 36 / 37 / 39 / 40 / 41 / 42
Male / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 7 / 10 / 15 / 18 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 20 / 21 / 21
Female / 0 / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 14 / 17 / 18 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 20 / 21
PMTCT
Number of HIV+ pregnant women / 110 / 109 / 107 / 106 / 97 / 84 / 90 / 79 / 89 / 82 / 85 / 90 / 97 / 106 / 115 / 129
Mothers needing PMTCT / 94 / 93 / 91 / 90 / 82 / 71 / 76 / 67 / 76 / 69 / 72 / 76 / 83 / 90 / 98 / 109
Mothers receiving PMTCT / 0 / 0 / 0 / 4 / 31 / 63 / 62 / 67 / 76 / 69 / 72 / 76 / 83 / 90 / 98 / 109
MTCT rate / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
HIV population 15-17
Total / 24 / 20 / 20 / 21 / 18 / 19 / 20 / 21 / 22 / 23 / 25 / 28 / 33 / 39 / 46 / 52
Male / 8 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 7 / 8 / 8 / 9 / 9 / 10 / 13 / 16 / 18 / 21
Female / 16 / 13 / 13 / 13 / 12 / 12 / 12 / 13 / 14 / 15 / 16 / 18 / 20 / 24 / 28 / 31

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