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Estimating regional trade flows using commercial vehicle survey data
7Appendix
7.1Quadratic Programming Formulation
Without loss of generality, all initial estimates entering the objective function can be represented by a single vector (. The objective function is then more compactly defined as
Note that the third term () drops out of the third line because it is a constant.In matrix notation, the standard quadratic program is:
7.2Supplementary Tables
TABLE A1: Correspondence between industry sectors and employment sectors.
# / Industry Sectors / NAICS / Employment Sector / NAICS1 / Crop and animal production / 111, 112 / Agriculture / 111-112, 1100, 1151-1152
2 / Forestry and logging / 113 / Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas / 21, 113-114, 1153, 2100
3 / Fishing, hunting and trapping / 114 / Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas / 21, 113-114, 1153, 2100
4 / Support activities for agriculture and forestry / 115 / Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas / 21, 113-114, 1153, 2100
5 / Mining and oil and gas extraction / 21 / Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas / 21, 113-114, 1153, 2100
6 / Utilities / 221 / Utilities / 22
7 / Construction / 23 / Construction / 23
8 / Manufacturing / 31-33 / Manufacturing / 31-33
9 / Wholesale trade / 41 / Trade / 41, 44-45
10 / Retail trade / 44-45 / Trade / 41, 44-45
11 / Transportation and warehousing / 48-49 / Transportation and warehousing / 48-49
12 / Information and cultural industries / 51 / Information, culture and recreation / 51, 71
13 / Finance, insurance, real estate and rental and leasing / 52, 53, 55 / Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing / 52-53
14 / Professional, scientific and technical services / 541 / Professional, scientific and technical services / 54
15 / Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services / 56 / Business, building and other support services / 55-56
16 / Educational services / 6114-6117 / Educational services / 61
17 / Health care and social assistance / 621, 623, 624 / Health care and social assistance / 62
18 / Arts, entertainment and recreation / 71 / Information, culture and recreation / 51, 71
19 / Accommodation and food services / 72 / Accommodation and food services / 72
20 / Other services (except public administration) / 81 / Other services / 81
21 / Operating, office, cafeteria, and laboratory supplies / NA / Total employed, Goods-producing sector / NA
22 / Travel and entertainment, advertising and promotion / NA / Total employed, Services-producing sector / NA
23 / Transportation margins / NA / Transportation and warehousing / 48-49
24 / Non-profit institutions serving households / NA / Average (Other services, Health care and social assistance, Information, culture and recreation, Educational services) / Average (81, 62, 51, 71, 61)
25 / Government sector / NA / Public administration / 91
TABLE A2: Correspondence between commodity sectors and the Standard Classification of Transported Goods (SCTG).
# / Statistics Canada Commodity / Standard Classification of Transported Goods (SCTG)1 / Grains / 02
2 / Other agricultural products / 01 (except 01004), 031, 032, 033 (except 0333, 0334), 034, 035, 036, 039, 041 (except 04192)
3 / Forestry products / 25
4 / Fish, seafood and trapping products / 01004
5 / Metal ores and concentrates / 14
6 / Mineral fuels / 15,16
7 / Non-metallic minerals / 10, 11, 12, 13
8 / Services incidental to mining
9 / Meat, fish and dairy products / 04192, 05, 071, 0741, 0743
10 / Fruit, vegetables and other food products, feeds / 0333, 0334, 042,06, 072, 073, 0742, 0744, 075, 076, 077
11 / Soft drinks and alcoholic beverages / 078, 08
12 / Tobacco and tobacco products / 09
13 / Leather, rubber and plastic products / 24, 304, 305
14 / Textile products / 301, 303
15 / Hosiery, clothing and accessories / 302
16 / Lumber and wood products / 26
17 / Furniture, mattresses and lamps / 39
18 / Wood pulp, paper and paper products / 27, 28
19 / Printing and publishing / 29
20 / Primary metal products / 32
21 / Fabricated metal products / 33
22 / Machinery / 34, 355
23 / Motor vehicles, other transport equipment and parts / 36, 37
24 / Electrical, electronic and communications products / 35 (except 355)
25 / Non-metallic mineral products / 31
26 / Petroleum and coal products / 17, 18, 19
27 / Chemicals, pharmaceuticals and chemical products / 20, 21, 22, 23
28 / Miscellaneous manufactured products / 38, 40
Table A3: Number of observations in the MTO CVS of commodities originating (or terminating at) distribution centers and truck terminals in Toronto with known consumption destinations (or production origins).
# / Commodity / Distribution Centre / Truck TerminalArriving / Departing / Arriving / Departing
1 / Grains / 2 / 2 / 1 / 1
2 / Other agricultural products / 132 / 107 / 39 / 59
3 / Forestry products / 2 / 1 / 0 / 0
4 / Fish, seafood and trapping products / 1 / 0 / 0 / 0
5 / Metal ores and concentrates / 0 / 0 / 2 / 2
6 / Mineral fuels / 0 / 0 / 0 / 1
7 / Non-metallic minerals / 27 / 11 / 33 / 16
8 / Services incidental to mining / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
9 / Meat, fish and dairy products / 158 / 284 / 49 / 178
10 / Fruit, vegetables and other food products, feeds / 216 / 141 / 115 / 87
11 / Soft drinks and alcoholic beverages / 51 / 42 / 31 / 36
12 / Tobacco and tobacco products / 2 / 1 / 0 / 1
13 / Leather, rubber and plastic products / 136 / 85 / 126 / 152
14 / Textile products / 8 / 15 / 18 / 16
15 / Hosiery, clothing and accessories / 9 / 19 / 5 / 13
16 / Lumber and wood products / 125 / 67 / 33 / 68
17 / Furniture, mattresses and lamps / 34 / 67 / 36 / 87
18 / Wood pulp, paper and paper products / 181 / 76 / 138 / 132
19 / Printing and publishing / 20 / 18 / 18 / 14
20 / Primary metal products / 66 / 29 / 63 / 72
21 / Fabricated metal products / 59 / 58 / 44 / 63
22 / Machinery / 77 / 47 / 54 / 54
23 / Motor vehicles, other transport equipment and parts / 120 / 108 / 145 / 146
24 / Electrical, electronic and communications products / 53 / 75 / 31 / 61
25 / Non-metallic mineral products / 69 / 50 / 47 / 84
26 / Petroleum and coal products / 30 / 71 / 14 / 46
27 / Chemicals, pharmaceuticals and chemical products / 104 / 85 / 109 / 104
28 / Miscellaneous manufactured products / 31 / 55 / 26 / 40
7.3Treatment of Facilities in MTO CVS
Table A4 lists the facility types and their codes recorded in the MTO CVS survey data.
TABLE A4: MTO CVS Facility Types.
Facility1 = Truck Terminal - Your Carrier
2 = Truck Terminal - Another Carrier
3 = Rail Terminal
4 = Marine Terminal
5 = Airport Terminal
6 = Primary Producer
7 = Manufacturer
8 = Warehouse/Distribution Centre
9 = Retail Outlet
10 = Commercial/Office Buildings
11 = Construction Sites
12 = Residences
13 = Home
14 = Waste Facilities
15 = Recreational Sites
95 = Other
97 = Driver Terminated Interview Before Question Asked
98 = Driver Refused to Answer
99 = Driver Doesn’t Know the Answer
Codes 95, 97, 98, and 99 are not used because the details of the commodity flow are incomplete. No commodity flow record used code 15 (“Recreational Sites”). Similarly, no commodity flow record used code 13 (“Home”), presumably because it is redundant with code 12 (“Residences”). Also, code 2 (“Truck Terminal - Another Carrier”) was treated identically as code 1 (“Truck Terminal - Your Carrier”) as carrier information was not available. Therefore, Table A5 showing the translation of each commodity flow into a trade flow does not include codes 95, 97, 98, 99, 15, 13, and 2. Finally, commodities leaving retail outlets (e.g., deliveries), commercial/office buildings (e.g., mail), construction sites (e.g., scrap), residences (e.g. returns), and waste facilities, are usually commodity movements that are not part of a larger trade flow and were also excluded.
TABLE A5: Origin-destination facility pairs
Origin Code / Destination Code / Included? / Comments1 / 1 / Yes / Impute Origin, Impute Destination
1 / 3 / Yes / Impute Origin, Export
1 / 4 / Yes / Impute Origin, Export
1 / 5 / Yes / Impute Origin, Export
1 / 6 / Yes / Impute Origin
1 / 7 / Yes / Impute Origin
1 / 8 / Yes / Impute Origin, Impute Destination
1 / 9 / Yes / Impute Origin
1 / 10 / Yes / Impute Origin
1 / 11 / Yes / Impute Origin
1 / 12 / Yes / Impute Origin
1 / 14 / No / Scrap, waste, etc.
3 / 1 / Yes / Import, Impute Destination
3 / 3 / No / External-External
3 / 4 / No / External-External
3 / 5 / No / External-External
3 / 6 / Yes / Import
3 / 7 / Yes / Import
3 / 8 / Yes / Import, Imput Destination
3 / 9 / Yes / Import
3 / 10 / Yes / Import
3 / 11 / Yes / Import
3 / 12 / Yes / Import
3 / 14 / No / Waste
4 / 1 / Yes / Import, Impute Destination
4 / 3 / No / External-External
4 / 4 / No / External-External
4 / 5 / No / External-External
4 / 6 / Yes / Import
4 / 7 / Yes / Import
4 / 8 / Yes / Import, Impute Destination
4 / 9 / Yes / Import
4 / 10 / Yes / Import
4 / 11 / Yes / Import
4 / 12 / Yes / Import
4 / 14 / No / Empty
5 / 1 / Yes / Import, Impute Destination
5 / 3 / No / External-External
5 / 4 / No / External-External
5 / 5 / No / External-External
5 / 6 / Yes / Import
5 / 7 / Yes / Import
5 / 8 / Yes / Import, Impute Destination
5 / 9 / Yes / Import
5 / 10 / Yes / Import
5 / 11 / Yes / Import
5 / 12 / Yes / Import
5 / 14 / No / Waste
6 / 1 / Yes / Impute Destination
6 / 3 / Yes / Export
6 / 4 / Yes / Export
6 / 5 / Yes / Export
6 / 6 / Yes / Production-Consumption
6 / 7 / Yes / Production-Consumption
6 / 8 / Yes / Impute Destination
6 / 9 / Yes / Production-Consumption
6 / 10 / Yes / Production-Consumption
6 / 11 / Yes / Production-Consumption
6 / 12 / Yes / Production-Consumption
6 / 14 / No / Scrap, waste, etc.
7 / 1 / Yes / Impute Destination
7 / 3 / Yes / Export
7 / 4 / Yes / Export
7 / 5 / Yes / Export
7 / 6 / Yes / Production-Consumption
7 / 7 / Yes / Production-Consumption
7 / 8 / Yes / Impute Destination
7 / 9 / Yes / Production-Consumption
7 / 10 / Yes / Production-Consumption
7 / 11 / Yes / Production-Consumption
7 / 12 / Yes / Production-Consumption
7 / 14 / No / Scrap, waste, etc.
8 / 1 / Yes / Impute Origin, Impute Destination
8 / 3 / Yes / Impute Origin, Export
8 / 4 / Yes / Impute Origin, Export
8 / 5 / Yes / Impute Origin, Export
8 / 6 / Yes / Impute Origin
8 / 7 / Yes / Impute Origin
8 / 8 / Yes / Impute Origin, Impute Destination
8 / 9 / Yes / Impute Origin
8 / 10 / Yes / Impute Origin
8 / 11 / Yes / Impute Origin
8 / 12 / Yes / Impute Origin
8 / 14 / No / Scrap, waste, etc.
7.4Mean Absolute Percentage Deviation (MAPD) Measures
TABLE A6: Industrial Output MAPD.
# / ER / MAPD (%)1 / Ottawa / 41.97
2 / Kingston-Pembroke / 40.70
3 / Muskoka-Kawarthas / 42.17
4 / Toronto / 30.00
5 / Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie / 58.91
6 / Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula / 51.93
7 / London / 31.59
8 / Windsor-Sarnia / 33.82
9 / Stratford-Bruce Peninsula / 39.66
10 / Northeast / 38.70
11 / Northwest / 34.70
TABLE A7: Final Demand MAPD.
# / ER / MAPD (%)1 / Ottawa / 59.22
2 / Kingston-Pembroke / 56.28
3 / Muskoka-Kawarthas / 44.20
4 / Toronto / 23.14
5 / Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie / 53.39
6 / Hamilton-Niagara Peninsula / 43.49
7 / London / 58.00
8 / Windsor-Sarnia / 64.92
9 / Stratford-Bruce Peninsula / 49.26
10 / Northeast / 63.60
11 / Northwest / 65.85
TABLE A8: Trade Flows MAPD.
# / Commodity / MAPD (%)1 / Grains / 9.09
2 / Other agricultural products / 66.20
3 / Forestry products / 431.22
4 / Fish, seafood and trapping products / 13.51
5 / Metal ores and concentrates / 1795.97
6 / Mineral fuels / 146.61
7 / Non-metallic minerals / 189.40
8 / Services incidental to mining / 305.12
9 / Meat, fish and dairy products / 68.78
10 / Fruit, vegetables and other food products, feeds / 94.41
11 / Soft drinks and alcoholic beverages / 58.67
12 / Tobacco and tobacco products / 9.09
13 / Leather, rubber and plastic products / 67.35
14 / Textile products / 118.30
15 / Hosiery, clothing and accessories / 107.04
16 / Lumber and wood products / 94.53
17 / Furniture, mattresses and lamps / 121.61
18 / Wood pulp, paper and paper products / 118.11
19 / Printing and publishing / 266.76
20 / Primary metal products / 139.57
21 / Fabricated metal products / 57.20
22 / Machinery / 48.54
23 / Motor vehicles, other transport equipment and parts / 100.43
24 / Electrical, electronic and communications products / 145.09
25 / Non-metallic mineral products / 107.38
26 / Petroleum and coal products / 87.17
27 / Chemicals, pharmaceuticals and chemical products / 140.23
28 / Miscellaneous manufactured products / 135.87