Edited by Yanxin Wang, Shemin Ge, Mary C. Hill & Chunmiao Zheng

CALIBRATION AND RELIABILITY IN GROUNDWATER MODELLING: Managing Groundwater and the Environment

Edited by Yanxin Wang, Shemin Ge, Mary C. Hill & Chunmiao Zheng

IAHS Publ. 341(2011)ISBN 978-1-907161-15-5, 278 + x pp. Price £60.00

This peer-reviewed collection of papers was selected from the seventh conference in the ModelCARE series on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling. The most important contributions are included here and deal with:
–New advances and innovations in model calibration, model prediction, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty assessment
–Parameterizing groundwater models
–Construction, calibration, reliability and use of models designed to address resources and environmental concerns
–Modelling of CO2 sequestration and other groundwater model applications /
Abstracts of the papers in this volume can be seen at:

Preface

ModelCARE2009 was the 7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling. It was held in Wuhan, China, on 20–23 September 2009 with the conference theme “Managing Groundwater and the Environment”. ModelCARE2009 was jointly organized by the International Commission for Groundwater (ICGW) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and the China University of Geosciences. Financial support was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China; China Geological Survey; the Xi'an Regional Center of China Geological Survey; and the InternationalResearchCenter on Karst, Guilin, China.

ModelCARE2009 was a follow-up to previous successful conferences organized in association with IAHS in: The Hague, the Netherlands (1990); Golden, Colorado, USA (1996); Zurich, Switzerland (1999); Prague, Czech Republic (2002); The Hague, the Netherlands (2005); and Copenhagen, Denmark (2007).

Within the context of model calibration and reliability, the conference addressed various issues of groundwater quality and quantity, including recent advances in theories and methodologies of groundwater flow and transport modelling, applicability of various approaches to real-world problems, and needs for future development. This volume contains 43 papers selected from 143 manuscripts and abstracts submitted to ModelCARE2009 by researchers from 17 countries. These papers were selected by the editors according to the results of peer-review by the members of the Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). The volume is organized according to the four main themes of the conference:

–New advances and innovations in model calibration, model prediction, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty assessment

–Parameterizing groundwater models

–Construction, calibration, reliability and use of models designed to address resources and environmental concerns

–Modelling of CO2 sequestration and other groundwater model applications

We would like to acknowledge the assistance from the SAC members who contributed to the success of the conference. Most also helped improve the quality of this volume:

–Corinna Abesser, British Geological Survey, UK; Vice-President of ICGW

–Mary Anderson, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA

–Jianmei Cheng, ChinaUniversity of Geosciences – Wuhan, China

–Giuseppe Gambolati, University of Padua, Italy

–Jimmy Jiao, University of Hong Kong, China

–Wolfgang Kinzelbach, ETH, Switzerland

–Kang-Kun Lee, Seoul National University, South Korea

–David Lerner, University of Sheffield, UK

–Hailong Li, ChinaUniversity of Geosciences – Beijing, China

–Shlomo Neuman, University of Arizona, USA

–Eileen Poeter, ColoradoSchool of Mines, USA

–Henning Prommer, CSIRO, Australia

–Hans Christian Refsgaard, Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Denmark

–Ed Sudicky, University of Waterloo, Canada

–Ne-Zheng Sun, University of California-Los Angeles, USA

–Makoto Taniguchi, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan; Vice-President
of ICGW

–Georg Teutsch, UFZ Centre for Environmental Research, Germany

–Dongguang Wen, China Geological Survey, China

–Jichun Wu, Nanjing University, China

–Tianfu Xu, LBNL, USA

–Yuesuo Yang, Jilin University, China

–William Yeh, University of California-Los Angeles, USA

–Xun Zhou, ChinaUniversity of Geosciences – Beijing, China

Special thanks also go to Dr Yu Zhou, Dr Yiqun Gan and Ms Xinxin Guo of China University of Geosciences for their tremendous efforts in helping organize the conference.

Yanxin Wang

School of Environmental Studies
ChinaUniversity of Geosciences – Wuhan
Wuhan 430074, China

Shemin Ge

Department of Geological Sciences
University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado80309, USA

Mary C. Hill

US Geological Survey
Boulder, Colorado80303, USA

Chunmiao Zheng

Department of Geological Sciences
The University of Alabama
Tuscaloosa, Alabama35487, USA

The books of papers selected from earlier ModelCARE conferences and published by IAHS

Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility of Modelling ModelCARE 2007

edited by J. C. Refsgaard, K. Kovar, E. HaarderE. Nygaard

Publ. 320 (2008) ISBN978-1-901502-49-7, 358 + x pp. £67.00

Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: From Uncertainty to Decision Making ModelCARE 2005

edited by M. F. P. Bierkens, J. C. Gehrels & K. Kovar

Publ. 304(2006) ISBN 978-1-901-502-58-9; 316 + xii pp; £59.00

Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: A Few Steps Closer to Reality ModelCARE 2002

edited by K. Kovar & Z. Hrkal

Publ. 277 (2003) ISBN 978-1-901502-07-7; 526 + x pp.; £78.80

Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Coping with Uncertainty ModelCARE 99

edited by F. Stauffer, W. Kinzelbach, K. Kovar & E. Hoehn

Publ. 265 (2000) ISBN 978-1-901502-36-7; 524 + xii pp.; now £15.00

ModelCARE 96, Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling

edited by Karel Kovar & PaulvanderHeijde

Publ. 237 (1996) ISBN 0-947571-94-9; 606 + x pp.; now £15.00

ModelCARE 90, Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling (the first in the series)

edited by Karel Kovar

Publ. 195(1990)ISBN 0-947571-67-1; 540 + xii pp.; now £15.00

Contents

Preface by Yangxin Wang, Shemin Ge, Mary C. Hill & Chunmiao Zheng

/ iii
1 /

New advances and innovations in model calibration, model prediction, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment

An operational drought forecasting system using coupled models for groundwater, surface water and unsaturated zone Wilbert Berendrecht, Albrecht Weerts,
Ab Veldhuizen & Timo Kroon / 3
Karst spring discharge modelling based on grey system theory: A case study at Shentou, northern China Qinghai Guo, Yanxin Wang & Teng Ma / 9
The effects of trend and outliers on geostatistical analysis of hydraulic conductivity Xiao-Wei Jiang, Li Wan & Xu-Sheng Wang / 14
Full-Bayesian, simple zoned inversion and transmissivity assessment of the Edwards Aquifer, Texas, USA Yefang Jiang& Allan D. Woodbury / 21
Uncertainty analysis of an integrated hydrological model using posterior covariance matrix from automatic calibration Haitao Li, Wolfgang Kinzelbach,
Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen, Philip Brunner & AlbrechtVon Boetticher / 27
Risk analysis of groundwater pollution X. Y. Ma & K. Wu / 34
An objective-oriented pilot point method for identifying spatially variable hydraulic parameters Ne-Zheng Sun / 40
Uncertainty of mass discharge estimates from contaminated sites using a fully Bayesian framework Mads Troldborg, Wolfgang Nowak, PhilipJ. Binning,
PoulL. Bjerg & Rainer Helmig / 46
Can we calibrate a complex groundwater model just by running an automatic calibration code? A case study from Italy: the Acque Albule Plain model (Rome)
Francesco La Vigna, Rudy Rossetto, Roberto Mazza & Giuseppe Capelli / 51
Numerical analysis and visualization of uncertainty effects in thermo-hydro-mechanical coupled processes in a hot-dry-rock geothermal reservoir Norihiro Watanabe,
Björn Zehner, Wenqing Wang, ChristopherI. Mcdermott, Takeo Taniguchi &
Olaf Kolditz / 57
Advances in basin-scale groundwater modellingin China Dongguang Wen,
Eryong Zhang, Zhonghua Tang, Liangjun Lin, Li Wan, Chongxi Chen, Jingli Shao, Yongsheng Zhao, Wenke Wang, Hui Qian & Wenpeng Li / 63
Optimization of a complex and highly parameterized groundwater system
Beiyan Zhang, Daron G. Abbey, Paul J. Martin, Scott C. James, William W. Woessner, Richard G. Andrachek, Christian Gabriel & BillW. Arnold / 70
2 / Construction, calibration, reliability and use of models designed to address resources and environmental concerns
Modelling the hydrological response of prairie pothole water bodies to climate variability Ganming Liu, Franklin W. Schwartz, Bo Zhang & Zhongbo Yu / 79
Modelling of the groundwater–surface water system of the Maozui area of Jianghan Plain, central China Yu Zhou, Yanxin Wang, François Zwahlen & Julie Boillat / 89
The impact of geothermal water exploitation on groundwater quality in Quaternary aquifers at Duncun in China Y. Q. Gan, X. X. Guo & Y. X. Wang / 97
Compartment approach for regional hydrological analysis: application to the Meijiang catchment Feng Sun, Cui Chen, WenQing Wang, YaJie Wu, GeYing Lai & Olaf Kolditz / 102
Application of the Multiscale Finite Element Method to the numerical modelling of regional groundwater systems Shujun Ye, Yuqun Xue, Jichun Wu, Zixin Wei & Qinfen Li / 109
How can large-scale integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models be used to evaluate long-term climate change impact on groundwater reserves?
Pascal Goderniaux, Serge Brouyère, Hayley J. Fowler, Stephen Blenkinsop,
René Therrien, Philippe Orban & Alain Dassargues / 115
Numerical modelling of physical clogging during groundwater artificial recharge
Ying Lu, X. Q. Du, B. M. Chi, Y. S. Yang W. Fan / 121
A management model to control contaminant mass loading and pumping rates for sustainable groundwater use DongKyuPark, Gwang-Ok Bae & Kang-Kun Lee / 127
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of impacts of urbanization on groundwater flow and salt transport in a coastal aquifer system, Busan, Republic of Korea
Hyeon-Jo Cho & Jun-Mo Kim / 133
3 / Parameterizing groundwater models
Modelling field-scale uranium mass transfer at the Hanford IFRC site R. Ma, C. Zheng, H. Prommer & J. Greskowiak / 141
Numerical modelling of flowing artesian wells using a well index method Xu-Sheng Wang / 147
Mobile–immobile model of solute transport through porous and fractured media
Zhou Chen, Jiazhong Qian, Hongbin Zhan, Luwang Chen & Shaohe Luo / 154
MTBE attenuation in adual porosity chalk aquifer – field observations and modelling results Lirong Cheng, David Lerner, SteveThorntonK. Ulrich Mayer / 159
An Euler-Lagrange approach to transport modelling in coupled hydrosystems
J.-O. Delfs, C.-H. Park & O. Kolditz / 166
Simulation of contaminant transport for contamination risk assessment
Irina Galitskaya, Irina Pozdniakova & Leonid Toms / 172
Numerical groundwater flow modelling for remediation design and seawater intrusion assessment at a coastal industrial site Andrea Gigliuto, Chiara Righetti, Arianna Chini & Rudy Rossetto / 179
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of groundwater flow, salt and radionuclide transport at a proposed radioactive waste disposal site in Gyeongju, Republic of Korea. Chan-Sung Oh & Jun-Mo Kim / 184
Development of a numerical model for radial collector well hydraulics and its application to riverbank filtration Eunhee Lee, Jiyoun Shin, Yunjung Hyun & Kang-Kun Lee / 190
The role of porosity for transport block-upscaling in a clay-rich sedimentary formation Matthias Willmann, Wolfgang Kinzelbach & Fritz Stauffer / 196
Optimization of groundwater pumping considering land subsidence in the Yangtze Delta, China X. B. Zhu, J. C. Wu, J. F. Wu & S. J. Ye / 201
Estimation of the leak term and sensitivity analysis at a LUST groundwater system under data scarcity Jianfeng Wu, Jichun Wu & Xiaobin Zhu / 207
4 / Modelling of CO2 sequestration and other groundwater model applications
Numerical simulation of potential effects of CO2 leakage on shallow potable aquifers
L. Jiang, Y. L. Li, W. Zhang & G. B. Qiu / 215
Numerical simulation of impacts of mineralogical compositions on trapping mechanisms and efficiency of carbon dioxide injected into deep saline formations Jung-Hwi Kihm & Jun-Mo Kim / 221
Numerical simulation of two-phase flow in deformable porous media: application to carbon dioxide storage in the subsurface Olaf Kolditz, Norbert Böttcher,
Sebastian Bauer, Uwe-Jens Görke, Chan-Hee ParkWenqing Wang / 228
Validation of reactive transport models for co2 geological sequestration using TOUGHREACT Tianfu Xu / 235
Modelling basin- and plume-scale processes of CO2 storage: a full-scale deployment scenario in the IllinoisBasin Quanlin Zhou & Jens T. Birkholzer / 239
Simulation of land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in the Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou Plain, South China Guoliang Cao, Chunmiao Zheng, Jiankang Zhao & Mengjie Wu / 245
The role of aquifer heterogeneity in the anthropogenic uplift of Venice
M. Ferronato, G. Gambolati & P.Teatini / 252
Using numerical modelling to study groundwater circulation patterns in the Cretaceous Basin, China Lihe Yin, Guangcai Hou, Fusheng Hu & Guoliang Cao / 258
Chlorinated ethene plume migration in groundwater at free-phase petroleum sitesEdward McBean / 262
Monitoring of aquifer pump tests with Magnetic Resonance Sounding (MRS): a synthetic case study D. Herckenrath, E. Auken & P. Bauer-Gottwein / 267
Key-word Index / 273

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Managing Groundwater and the Environment (Proceedings of ModelCARE 2009, Wuhan, China,September 2009). IAHS Publ. 341, 2011, 3-8.

An operational drought forecasting system using coupled models for groundwater, surface water and unsaturated zone

WILBERT BERENDRECHT1, ALBRECHT WEERTS2, AB VELDHUIZEN3 & TIMO KROON4

1Deltares, PO Box 85467, 3508 ALUtrecht, The Netherlands

2 Deltares, PO Box 177, 2600 MH Delft, The Netherlands

3 Alterra-Wageningen UR, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands

4 Dutch Centre for Water Management (WMCN), PO Box 17, 8200 AA Lelystad, The Netherlands

Abstract During periods of drought the National Coordinating Committee for Water Distribution of the Netherlands has to decide how the available surface water is used and allocated between different functions. To support decision making, real-time and near-future information is needed about the availability of surface water, groundwater levels, saturation of the root zone, etc. For this purpose an operational drought forecasting system has been implemented. This system runs on a daily basis and provides nationwide distributed model estimates and forecasts of hydrological variables, based on a surface water model coupled with a MODFLOW-MetaSWAP model of the saturated–unsaturated zone. Model forcing includes radar data of actual precipitation and point measurements of actual evaporation.Model forecasts are driven by precipitation and evaporation from the Ensemble Prediction System. The system is operationalised within DELFT-FEWS, which is an operational forecasting system to manage data and models in a real-time environment.

Keywords drought; operational forecasting; distributed model; model coupling; the Netherlands

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Managing Groundwater and the Environment (Proceedings of ModelCARE 2009, Wuhan, China,September 2009). IAHS Publ. 341, 2011, 9-13.

Karst spring discharge modelling based on grey system theory: A case study at Shentou, northern China

Qinghai Guo, Yanxin WangTeng Ma

School of Environmental Studies, ChinaUniversity of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Abstract As the most important water supply source for ShuozhouCity of northern China, the Shentou springs have an average annual discharge of 6.86 m3/s. However, the discharge of the springs has been reducing since the early 1960s. Grey system theory is applied to simulate and predict the change in discharge of the Shentou springs with time. The change in the discharge of the Shentou springs can be divided into two phases: before and after 1985. The GM (1,1) model is used to fit the discharge change process before 1985, and grey prediction-amending model to simulate the process after 1985 and to predict the trend of the change. The prediction of discharge change between 2000 and 2004 shows that the discharge would follow the trend of increasing in the future should the rainfalls at Shentou continue to be comparatively high, as in the middle of the 1990s, and groundwater in Shuozhou is not excessively exploited.

Key wordsShentou karst springs; discharge attenuation; grey system theory; prediction

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Managing Groundwater and the Environment (Proceedings of ModelCARE 2009, Wuhan, China,September 2009). IAHS Publ. 341, 2011, 14-20.

The effects of trend and outliers on geostatistical analysis of hydraulic conductivity

XIAO-WEI JIANG, LI WAN & XU-SHENG WANG

School of Water Resources and Environment, ChinaUniversity of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

AbstractThe geostatistical characterization of hydraulic conductivity heterogeneity has been a hot research topic. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity measurements along two sections at the Borden aquifer are utilized for analysis. The effect of outliers on the normality of log hydraulic conductivity (lnK) is discussed using histograms and probability plots, and the trends of hydraulic conductivity are identified using multivariate or univariate regression analysis. After removing the trends from lnK, the normality of the residual of lnK is discussed. Finally, vertical experimental variograms are calculated from lnK, the residual of lnK, and the residual of lnK without outliers. It is found that the residuals, after removal of trends, are suitable for calculation of variograms, and removal of outliers could result in smoother experimental variograms.

Key words hydraulic conductivity; trend; outlier; lognormal; probability plot; variogram; Borden aquifer

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Managing Groundwater and the Environment (Proceedings of ModelCARE 2009, Wuhan, China,September 2009). IAHS Publ. 341, 2011, 21-26.

Full-Bayesian, simple zoned inversion and transmissivity assessment of the Edwards Aquifer, Texas, USA

YEFANG JIANG1& ALLAN D. WOODBURY2

1Department of Environment, Forestry and Energy of Prince Edward Island, 11 Kent St, Charlottetown,
Prince Edward Island C1A 7N8, Canada

2Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Manitoba, 15 Gillson St, Winnipeg, ManitobaR3T 5V6, Canada

AbstractAn alternative approach for transmissivity (T) estimation based on hierarchical-Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods is presented. A stochastic conceptual framework is adopted for the aquifers in question and perturbation techniques are utilized to render a coupled non-linear problem into a linear one. Bayesian updating is used to condition prior estimates of logarithm T [ln(T)] with T measurements; then hydraulic head measurements are incorporated into the updating procedure by adopting a linearized flow equation. This approach was applied to estimate the ln(T) field of the Edwards Aquifer. Simulations with a simple zoned ln(T) distribution were also performed. Simulations showed the head fits alone might not provide enough information to judge what parameter estimation approach is superior to the other and which estimated field approximates reality better; but the T field from Bayesian inversion is of higher resolution, and respects the geology and spring discharges better than the estimation from PEST.

Key words Bayes; transmissivity; stochastic inversion

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Managing Groundwater and the Environment (Proceedings of ModelCARE 2009, Wuhan, China,September 2009). IAHS Publ. 341, 2011, 27-33.

Uncertainty analysis of an integrated hydrological model using posterior covariance matrix from automatic calibration

HAITAO LI1,5, WOLFGANG KINZELBACH1, HARRIE-JAN HENDRICKS FRANSSEN2, PHILIP BRUNNER3 & ALBRECHTVON BOETTICHER4

1Institute of Environmental Engineering (IfU), ETHZurich, CH-8093 Switzerland

2Institute for Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Leo Brandtstrasse, Jülich,
D-52425, Germany

3Centre d'Hydrogéologie et de Géothermie, University of Neuchatel, CH-2009 Switzerland

4Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research,CH-8903 Switzerland