Drought Management and Water Scarcity Adaptation

GUIDANCE: How to adapt to climate change with regard to water issues and EU water legislation

CHAPTER 7

Drought Management and Water Scarcity Adaptation

Second Draft: 23 April 2009

Spanish Directorate General for Water

Ministry of the Environment, and Rural and Marine Affairs

Contents

7.1Introduction: Drought, water scarcity and climate change. Analysis of existing documentation

7.1.1Technical Reports

7.1.2Policy and Legislation

7.1.3Link to Water Framework Directive

7.2Analysis methodology

7.3Impacts (Indicators)

7.3.1Introduction

7.3.2Indicators

7.4Measures to adapt to climate change with regard to water scarcity and droughts

7.4.1Legal and regulation option

7.4.2European Drought Observatory

7.4.3Measures on drought (Guidance on water and climate adaptation, UNECE 2008)

7.1Introduction: Drought, water scarcity and climate change. Analysis of existing documentation

Climate change is expected to aggravate the already existing pressures on water resources in many parts of Europe in a regionally differentiated way, in addition to increase drought episodes and their intensity.

Mediterranean countries are particularly affected by water scarcity and drought episodes due to their specific geographic and climatic characteristics; the average runoff in southern European rivers is projected to decrease due to increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation.

Despite that, it is wrongly thought, that Northern countries are not affected by droughts since they present higher precipitation values.Frequently, countries with higher values of available water resources lack storing infrastructures, and are thus more vulnerable to drought impacts. Recent drought episodes have severely affected central and northern European countries such as UK, Norway or Hungary”. (ERP chapter. Water scarcity and drought expert network, October 2008).

In general, major drought episodes are projected to become more frequent with particularly intense summer droughts. This may be further exacerbated because of an increasing demand for water as a result of elevated temperatures. Decreased precipitation and run-off will moreover affect hydropower generation, reducing energy production capacity.

It is essential to differentiate between key terms in order to apply different measures:
Desertification means land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities;
Drought is a naturally occurring phenomenon that exists when precipitation has been significantly below normal recorded levels, causing serious hydrological imbalances that adversely affect land resource production systems; It is recurrent and differs from other natural disasters in its slowness of onset and its commonly lengthy duration.
Water scarcity means that water demands exceeds the water resources exploitable under sustainable conditions
(COM(2007) 414final)

Drought, as an extreme phenomenon that will likely be impactedby climate change in European countries, has been broadly documented. Some official publications that record drought socio-economic and environmental impacts, as well as applied general measures are listed below:

7.1.1Technical Reports

-Climate Change and water (June 2008). Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC).

-Impacts of Europe’s Climate Change -2008 Indicators- based assessment (September 2008) European Environment Agency (EEA).

-Water Scarcity and Droughts, in-depth Assessment. Second Interim Report. June 2007. DG Environent – European Commission, November 2007.

7.1.2Policy and Legislation

Concerning specific policies and legislation, the Water Framework Directive addresses some quantitative aspects, and leaves an opened door to develop complementary plans to those developed for River Basins. This is broadly reflected in the technical document developed by the Water Scarcity and Droughts Expert Network:

-Drought Management Plan Report. Including Agricultural, Drought Indicators and Climate Change Aspects. Water Scarcity and Droughts Expert Network. November 2007.

As a political initiative and in response to the Council of Ministers an official Communication was issued regarding water scarcity and droughts:

-EU Communications (Commission Communication of 18 July 2007: Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union” (July 2007).

The Council of Ministers of the EU launched a policy request to assess the gravity of water scarcity and droughts in Europe in 2006 (led by Spain and Portugal). This political interest translated into a first interim report assessing the situation presented by the DG Environment of the EC. Furthermore, a specific working group was created within the Common Implementation Strategy of the Water Framework Directive in 2007. This group was made of a Stakeholder Forum with a more political level and mainly led by the EC, and an Expert Network to deal with technical aspects, led by France, Spain, Italy and the EC.

After the drafting and discussion process within the stakeholder Forum, the Communication of the EC to the Council and European Parliament was issued on 17th of July 2007 (COM (2007) 414 final). This Communication establishes the need for a European Strategy based on national and EU measures. It recognizes the importance of both problems, and the need for undertaking European actions to use, to reform, whenever necessary, the existing tools (Common Agricultural Policy, Water Framework

Directive, financing mechanisms and emergency assistance).

The Communication presents a range of possible orientations for managing the problems of water resource scarcity and drought, and quotes a certain number of good practices existing in various countries, water saving must become the priority and introduce possible measures to cope with water scarcity and drought, it also recommends Drought Management Plans, support to establish a European Strategy, it proposes establishing a European Drought Observatory and it introduces the possibility of using European funds when suffering prolonged droughts as it has been done.

EU Solidarity Fund aids Cyprus following severe drought
The cumulative effect of the drought in Cyprus led to serious consequences for living conditions, the economy, and the natural environment. By April 2008, the country’s water reserves were near depletion. The government applied for financial assistance from the EU Solidarity Fund to help respond to the crisis, which had associated costs equivalent to an estimated 1.25% of the country’s GNI. The European Commission agreed to grant €7.6 million in aid from the EU Solidarity Fund. The aid will mainly
help reimburse costs of emergency measures, such as the transport of water from Greece. This is the first time the Solidarity Fund was used to provide financial aid for emergency measures in response to an exceptional drought.

The Communication insists thatall possibilities to improve water efficiency must be explored, and that policymaking should be based on a clear water hierarchy.

-Council of the European Union Conclusion to the Commission Communication of 18 July 2007: “Addressing the challenge of water scarcity and droughts in the European Union” (October 2007)

The EU Communication is considered as a fundamentaland well-developed first set of policy options for future action, within the framework of EUwater management principles, policies and objectives; the Communication requires a clear commitment from the EU as a whole, to establish the adequate conditions forimplementing the actions envisaged therein and to develop further knowledge. It also insists in the common implementation of WFD and underlines the importance of DMPs.

-On the follow-up report of the communication on water scarcity and droughts ( September 2008)

This follow-up report shows that, while progress has been made, a great deal still needs to bedone in order to improve water demand management more widely across Europe and to avoidmismanagement of water resources, especially in water-scarce areas. It is also emphasized that adaptation to climate change will add a new challenge to the existing issues, although forthcoming Commission's initiative on adaptation to climate change will help reinforce the consistency of the action taken both at EU level and nationally, and set the scene for further action at the EU level.

7.1.3Link to Water Framework Directive

Although it mainly sets qualitative objectives, the WFD, addresses to some extent quantitative issues. In particular, it promotes the application of appropriate measures (Programmes of Measures of the River Basin Management Plans) and includes the possibility of developing, complementary plans, such as specific drought management plans. However, the lack of water resources in water bodies could directly affect the achievement of the good ecological status. Moreover, some countries (e.g. France,Italy, and Spain) feel the lack of a more complete guidance within the Directive to address these issues. In addition, countries facing water scarcity and droughts are challengedto comply with the WFD. The Directive does not specifically establish legal requirements and parameters for quantitative management of surface water (only in the Groundwater Daughter Directive) and there are no standards for using “non conventional” waters (e.g. treated waste water, rainfall waters).

In addition, while the WFD foresees the possibility of exemptions in case of prolonged droughts, the lack of agreed indicators at the EU level to identify and quantify droughts is difficulting the consensus on when and how to apply them. Technical work is being developed by the Water Scarcity and Drought Expert Network, the European Environmental Agency and the CE on a common understanding of the phenomenon and its impacts.

Looking into detail the Water Framework Directive, it is clear that intensives and longer drought episodes will mean change in their main objectives. As it is said, intensive and prolonged droughts, as well as water scarcity will be consequences of climate change. These changes might lead toclarify some definitions of the WFD, and work more intensively in solving quantitative issues.

One of the objective of this Directive (e. contributes to mitigating the effects of floods and droughts) focus on this problematic issue. Also climate change will impacts in water resources, it is important to follow this directive in order to minimize all the impacts

Regarding the preamble of the WFD the point 32 describes “ There may be grounds for exemptions from the requirement to prevent further deterioration or to achieve good status under specific conditions, if the failure is the result of unforeseen or exceptional circumstances, in particular floods and droughts, or, for reasons of overriding public interest, of new modifications to the physical characteristics of a surface water body or alterations to the level of bodies of groundwater, provided that all practicable steps are taken to mitigate the adverse impact on the status of the body of water”. In this sense, if type-specific reference conditions change due to climate change, it might be necessary toconsider newdefinition of droughts. In addition, as discussed within the WS&DExpert Network, prolonged droughts could bea reason to apply exemptions, where impacts canproducehighsocio-economic and environmental impacts, and could notbe avoided by applying appropriate measures.Therefore, it will be essential to identify in the short-medium term common indicators that allow Member States to clearly define and identify prolonged droughts, that could later justify possible exemptions. (Indicators work being currently developed by the EEA).

Informal discussions have expressed the possibility of developing a Droughts Directive, which could incorporate early warning systems and risk mapping, similarly to the Floods Directive.

(UK will supply some examples of early warning systems on prediction on droughts. Other countries examples?)

7.2Analysismethodology

Different studies have been developed to assess climate change impacts on water resourcesat national and international levels.

However, taking into account current research, there is no single model that canprecisely predict how, when and where droughts will appear. As the definition explains, droughts appear when precipitation has been significantly below normal recorded levels, but several climatic variables interfere in the phenomena. Therefore, to study how droughts will affect European countries, it is important to develop specific models that can be able to link climate change effects, precipitation patterns, temperature variations and drought episodes.

Example: Research on the potential effects of climate change in natural regime water resources
The Spanish Institute for hydrologic research (CEDEX) jointly with the Directorate General for Water, of the Ministry of Environment, and Rural and Marine Affairs, is working on evaluating the potential effects of climate change on water resources. A hydrological simulation model (SIMPA) has been developed, which is fed by different climatic models developed by the Meteorological National Agency (PRUDENCE and Regionalization models, FIC and SDSM). These are complemented by two of EEA developed scenarios (A2 and B2). The input data on those models include temperature (T), Potential Evapotranspiration (ET) and Precipitation (P). By applying the models, it will be possible to obtain complete hydrological series for all the Spanish river basins (recharge of groundwater bodies, rivers flow rates…).
Initial results of this research show an important decrease of run-off for the whole Spanish territory due to an increase in temperature, consistently, also Potential Evapotranspiration increases while global precipitation decreases.
By assessing different results of the Spanish River Basins Districts, a great drop on general run off is observed. The biggest decreases are expected in the SouthRiver Basin.
Examples of droughts and dry spell forecasts (Influence of climate change on droughts and water scarcity and dry regions, 2008, Luis Jose Mata)
The projected adverse consequence of climate change on regional droughts is well established by global and regional studies. Simulations using the regional climate model HIRHAM, from the Danish Meteorological Institute (Christensen et al; 2007), for the period 2071-2100 revealed marked changes in daily precipitation in Europe due to the projected global warming. In winter, the frequency of wet days is enhanced over most of the European continent except, for example, in the Mediterranean region. In summer, in contrast, the frequency of wet days is estimated to decreased over most of Europe. Also, the distribution of wet days is project earlier and longer drought in the Mediterranean region (Beniston et al. 2007).
There is a tendency for summer drying of mid-continental areas. Summer dryness indicates a great risk of droughts (Meehl et al. 2007). Burke et al. (2006) projected, using the Hadley Centre global circulation model HadCM3 and the SRES A2 scenarios for the 2090s, regions of strong wetting and drying with a net overall global drying trend. The proportion of land surface in extreme drought is projected to increase 1 percent to 30 percent by the year 2100.
Neural networks have also shown a great ability to forecast nonlinear and nonstationary hydrological records. The technique was applied to forecast drought in a river basin in Mexico (Los Conchos) in combination with wavelet transform; this hybrid model significantly improves the ability to forecast regional droughts (Kim and Valdes, 2003). Another hybrid model, combining a stochastic and a neural network model, was developed by Mishra et al. (2006) to forecast drought in a river basin in India (Kansabati); it was found to forecast drought with great accuracy.
Held et al. (2005) simulates the condition of the Sahel region in the future, using a global circulation model that captures several aspects of the twentieth century rainfall record (generally consistent with observation) in this region. The results indicate a dramatic projection of drying in the Sahel in the twenty-first century under the SRED scenarios.

Water Resources Strategy for England and Wales

We have recently assessed how potential changes in rainfall could affect average river flows across England and Wales throughout the year by 2050 (Figure 1.4). The work (using the CERF hydrological model and climate projections from UKCIP) shows that by 2050 river flows in winter may increase by 10 to 15 per cent. However, river flows in the late summer and early autumn could reduce by over 50 per cent, and as much as 80 per cent in some places. These patterns would result in a drop in total annual average river flow of up to 15 per cent.

We have considered how climate change may affect groundwater. By 2025, it is likely that overall recharge to aquifers will decrease, river flows fed by groundwater will decrease and that there will be a general lowering of groundwater levels, with a more marked reduction further away from rivers (Table 1.1).

Please, suggest other examples from other countries.

7.3Impacts (Indicators)

7.3.1Introduction

There is a great deal of debate regarding global climate change and its expected results. Patterns and trends show that its effects will ultimately affect water resources availability and thus have an impact on water ecosystems.

The consensus is that the effect will accentuate the extremes with more pronounced droughts. If it persists, climatic zones are likely to migrate, leaving the climate of some regions dryer, other wetter, and all more variable and unpredictable. Certain regions dependent on water (e.g. major farming areas, or large population centres) will experience more water scarcity.

Main impacts regarding factors directly related to drought and its management:

-Water resources: Hydrological stress is expected to increase in central and southern Europe. For the 2070s, the percentage of surface area under conditions of severe water stress is expected to increase from the current 19% to 35%. Populations living under water stress conditions in regions from 17 countries of Western Europe are projected to increase by between 16 to 44 million. It is also predicted that the volume of certain rivers may diminish up to 80% during summer seasons; reservoirs may lose resources due to decrease of rainfall and droughts frequency will be increased (see Figure 7.1)

- Water demand (irrigation, urban supply and industry): Climate Change will produce an increment on water demand; higher temperatures will lead for major water demand for irrigation and urban supply, hydroelectric potential of Europe will decrease 6% in average, and between 20 and 50% in the Mediterranean surrounding. However, industry may not increase consumption of water because of technology efficiency.