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DRAFT Not For Further Dissemination

Subject: Open Source Intelligence and Government Operations

1. Background. Four trends bear on intelligence support to international security management:

  • increase of the number and the influence of non-state actors as well as smaller states;
  • increase of complex emergencies (refugees, food scarcity, plagues, and water scarcity) combined with ethnic conflict along the Sino-Slavic border and the Slavic-Islamic borders;
  • limited applicability of secret sources and methods for lower-tier Third World issues;
  • increase in relevant information available through open sources, including the Internet.
  1. What Is Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)? OSINT goes beyond normal staff work to combine the proven process of intelligence (requirements definition, collection management, source discovery and validation, multi-source fusion, compelling presentation) with the purchase of international open sources of information and complex related services. "Open sources" go well beyond the Internet (3 billion pages of substance and rising) and premium online services; to include "grey literature" (limited edition publications including dissertations and local directories from around the world); specialized market research, private investigative, and other information broker services; and geospatial information services including commercial imagery and Russian military maps. OSINT, unlike staff work or research, creates overt intelligence.

3. Who Is Doing What Today. Although the departments should be the primary exploiters of open sources, the bureaucracy has neglected external information. The Department of State has no funds for the overt purchase of local knowledge. The same is true for defense, trade, the environment, and financial security activities. Defense intelligence organizations have redirected OSINT funds to other priorities. There are no structured processes for the collection, translation and analysis of Chinese, Russian, Arabic, Japanese, or other foreign language materials. Experts estimate that foreign information available in English contains roughly half of the information of interest to the U.S. and only a fraction of that is available online. The IC annually spends roughly $250 million on open source acquisition, mostly for the Foreign Broadcast Information Service. The Aspin-Brown Commission on the future of the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), found that U.S. capabilities to exploit open sources are "severely deficient" and should be a "top priority for funding." The Hard-Rudman Commission on national security similarly concluded that OSINT requires additional emphasis.

4. Benefits. Benefits of an Open Source Intelligence Program (OSIP) include:

  • provision of an insurance policy for intelligence coverage of Third World security issues;
  • increase in the timeliness, coverage and political utility of overtly available information;
  • increase in open source information sharing across the departments and with private sector;
  • foundation for web-based OSINT exchanges with allies, other nations, and non-state actors.

5. Who Should Do More? The Undersecretary of State for Policy could lead international activities. Within Defense, OSINT could be led by the Office of the Secretary for policy planning and the Joint Forces Command or Special Operations Command for military purposes.

6. Cost: $125 million a year would be an appropriate level to start, as shown below:

Foreign Affairs OSINT Project (Includes support to CINCs) / $45M
Defense OSINT Project (Includes support to CINCs and Program Managers) / $75M
International Trade OSINT Project (Includes support to White House) / $5M