IAN POTTER ASSOCIATES 3rd October 2014
Specialist Agricultural Quota & Entitlement Brokers
Telephone 01335 324594 Fax 01335 324584
Website www.ipaquotas.co.uk Email Issue No. 785
Today / Last Week / Change / 4 Weeks Ago / 1 Year agoClean / 0.2ppl / 0.2pl / - / 0.2ppl / 0.15ppl
Producers in E & W / 10,109 / -36 / 10,109 / 10,495
£ : $ / £1.61 / £1.63 / -0.02 / £1.66 / £1.60
£ : € / £1.27 / £1.28 / -0.01 / £1.26 / £1.18
Crude Oil / £91.90 / £97.30 / -£5.40 / £102 / £109
Wheat / £110 / £107 / +£3.00 / £123 / £160
Soya meal / £291 / £319 / -£28.00 / £336 / £374
(Commodity and currency prices – source BOCM Pauls)
Milk Quota Available (Sale)
Litres Available / Butterfat % / Price965,518 / 3.86 / 0.2ppl
2,788,760 / 3.90 / 0.2ppl
543,955 (300,987 of which is direct) / 4.02 / 0.2ppl
609,118 / 4.03 / 0.2ppl
Milk Quota Available (Lease)
Litres Available / Butterfat % / Price600,000 / 3.85 / 0.15ppl (£900)
1,000,000 / 3.95 / 0.2ppl (£2,000)
2015 Single Farm Payments Available
2.21 no vat English Non SDA (use by 2015) / offers7.63 English Non SDA (use by 2015) / offers
29.89 English Non SDA (use by 2015) / offers
2.25ppl milk price drop for South Caernarfon Creameries suppliers – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 26.76ppl (www.milkprices.com).
2ppl milk price drop for suppliers to The Fresh Milk Company (Lactalis) – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 28.45ppl (www.milkprices.com).
1.9ppl milk price drop for Muller Wiseman suppliers – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 27.1ppl (www.milkprices.com). The total cut in recent months amounts to 6.5ppl.
1.75ppl milk price drop for Barbers suppliers – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 28.85ppl.
1.5ppl milk price drop for Wyke Farms suppliers – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 27.05ppl (www.milkprices.com).
1.5ppl milk price drop for Blackmore Vale Farm suppliers – from 1st October (immediate)
This takes producers standard litre price down to 29.75ppl (www.milkprices.com).
1.3ppl milk price drop for all Dairy Crest producers – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price for DC cheese (Davidstow) contracted producers down to 29.04ppl and for its liquid contracted producers down to 27.04ppl (www.milkprices.com). For DC’s organic milk suppliers the price remains unchanged at 39.68ppl.
1ppl milk price drop for First Milk liquid contracted members – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 24.1ppl (www.milkprices.com). Members have seen 8.4ppl (26%) wiped of their milk price in only 6 months.
0.3ppl milk price drop for First Milk Cheese contracted members – from 1st November
This takes producers standard litre price down to 25.8ppl (www.milkprices.com).
GDT prices fall a further 7.3%
This weeks GDT results could only be described as a disaster as an average 7.3% was wiped off prices recorded only two weeks ago.
Key movers were as follows:
WMP down 10% to average US $2443/tonne
Butter down 6.6% to average US $2514/tonne
Cheddar down 1.2% to average US $3028/tonne
SMP down 2.7% to average US $2540/tonne
Westbury SMP down 1.2% to average US $2535/tonne
One of the concerns behind the numbers is the fact that in the case of WMP the biggest drop of 10.7% occurred for the January delivery powder.
Similarly the biggest drop in SMP prices came for April 2015 delivery, which fell 5.8%. Clearly the long term view is not good based on these trades.
GDT auction prices for WMP have more than halved in the space of 8 months (-52%) whilst average SMP prices are close behind having dropped 48% in the past 9 months.
What do these numbers mean?
If you take an EU butter price of £2300/tonne and the average Westbury GDT price of £1563/tonne the resulting AMPE is 21.3ppl.
Note, there are some who are incorrectly inserting a world butter price of £1550/tonne, as per the GDT auction results, which delivers an AMPE of only 17.6ppl. This is inaccurate and ignores EU import taxes. It does, however, give a pointer towards ex-farm gate milk price.
SFP exchange rate for 2014 payments
The exchange rate will be 1 Euro = 77.73p. Another blow for dairy farmers as the rate paid drops by 5.875p (7.0%) compared to last years.
Previous rates have been:
2011 86.665p
2012 79.805p
2013 83.605p