Case Study: Family Dynamics of 63 Million (In 1990) to More Than 330 Million (In 20500

Case Study: Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to more than 330 Million (in 20500 Elders in China

Source: Demographic Research- Volume 2, Article 5

Researchers:

Zeng Yi- Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Demographic Studies and the Department of Sociology at Duke University, Professor at the Institute of Population Research of Peking University, Research Scholar at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Resarch

Linda George: Professor at the Department of Sociology and Associate Director for the Studies of Aging and Development at Duke University

Summary: Although worldwide there has been a rapid increase in the elderly population due to sanitation, better healthcare and diet, vaccinations, etc., China, Mexico, India and Korea in particular are undergoing an extremely high decrease in mortality of the elderly population, resulting in changes in age structure as well as the numerous environmental and social problems which result from overpopulation. The increases in population of the elderly in these four countries each year are higher than rates in Europe and North America. Yi and George predict that that by the year 2050, China will have 331 million people over the age of 65, a figure greater than the population of the entire United States today (in 2000 the U.S. population is estimated to be 278,357- World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision- United Nations Publication).

Yi and George list the factors that cause higher elderly population in the four countries previously indicated as including:

 -lower fertility

 -higher mobility

 -changing attitudes about family structure and function

 -increasing life expectancy, especially mortality declines later in life

Since each year the increase in population of the elderly (65 and older) in China is 2.3 percent, by 2050 the elderly population will have grown four-fold and will make up 23.1 percent of China’s total population, according to Yi and George. While it will take only 20 years for the elderly population of China to double, it will take 57 years for the elderly population of the United States to double.

In order to project future populations of the elderly and future mortality rates, Yi and George used several different models, including an assumption of medium mortality assuming a life expectancy increase from 68.4 in 1990 to 78.8 years in 2050). Their low mortality scenario projects a life expectancy increase to 84.9 in 2050.

General conclusion: “….if the biomedical breakthroughs and improved health practices make the low mortality scenario become reality, population aging will problems in China will be much more serious in the next century.”

One of Yi and George’s recommendations to ameliorate this problem: The “two-child plus spacing” policy- “lower marriage, later birth…4-5 years between the first and second child.”

Researcher biographies:

Biography of Linda George (includes picture- to put on powerpoint or web)

http://www.soc.duke.edu/dept/faculty/lgeor.html