EAST AFRICA APPEAL – REAL TIME RESPONSE REVIEW
CALL FOR PROPOSALS
Tearfund is calling for proposals to Lead on a real-time Response Review for the East Africa emergency response programme, as described in the attached Terms of Reference.
Interested bidders should submit the following:
1. A letter confirming that the bidder can carry out the Response Review in the timeframe given in the Terms of Reference (ToR)
2. A brief proposed methodology for how the work will be undertaken (max 2 page). The Bidder may suggest two teams (requiring a lead and co-lead consultants) each travelling to two locations and then a lead and co-lead meeting in Nairobi to collate all the data and write the report, or a single team travelling to all four countries (requiring one lead consultant only). Please outline the reasons and benefits for the model you propose in your bid.
3. A succinct workplan and schedule of activities within proposed timeframe for each country (see TOR for rough outline of expected scheduling)
4. A budget (in GBP) setting out the full cost for the Review, including:
a. the daily cost and number of days for each team member
b. all other costs for the review
5. A CVs and an outline of how the bidder meets the skill requirements
6. Two samples of outputs from previous relevant reviews previously delivered
DEADLINE: proposals should be submitted by 17:00 GMT on 18th June 2017 to the Tearfund Programme Co-ordinator, Josie Smith, .
Submissions to this call for proposals will be assessed based on the technical quality (70%) and the proposed budget and value for money (30%). For technical quality, the following will be considered: Experience and qualifications of bidder/team, strength of proposed methodology, workplan and schedule of activities.
It is expected that this work will be contracted during the week commencing 25th of June 2017, for activities to start in mid July (providing two weeks for travel preparations). Tearfund reserves the right to negotiate the proposals and budgets with the bidder before offering a contract.
Terms of Reference for a Consultancy Assignment /Assignment Title: / Real Time Review for East Africa Crisis 2017
Summary / The purpose of this consultancy is to lead a review of the work of Tearfund’s operational team and partners in the East Africa Region to determine the appropriateness of the Tearfund strategy and to inform the second phase of funding.
Location of Assignment: / Kenya,South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somaliland
Partners: / CEDS, AIC, TDA, FH, WC, Gargar
Accountable to: / Josie Smith
Teams: / Team 1: (All 4 countries): Lead consultant (external), 2 internal staff
OR
Team 1 South Sudan and Ethiopia: Lead consultant (external), 1 internal staff
Team 2 Kenya and Somaliland: Second consultant (internal or external), 1 internal staff
Does this assignment require the consultant to have either one-to-one contact, regular or frequent contact with children or young people under the age of 18? / No
Background:
Slow onset drought related crises in East Africa are not a new phenomenon. However, the frequency and intensity of these crises has risen sharply over the past decade. The most recent peak of emergency need was the famine in Somalia in 2011, which affected over 12 million people. The current crisis in East Africa is a perfect storm, resulting from a series of missed seasons of no or low rains combined with the most extreme El Niño in 50 years. The food insecurity levels across the region are exceeding those seen in 2011. OCHA states that 23 million people in the region are currently critically food insecure. Conflict has also played a role in driving up levels of food insecurity in the region, most notably in South Sudan. In 2011, South Sudan had just been declared the world's latest country with hopes for peace and prosperity. However, the country’s relapse into armed conflict in 2013 has not just been a driver for the current situation in the country, but also the region. Insecurity in Somalia has had similar effects with both conflicts leading to mass displacement preventing people from cultivating land as well as hampering humanitarian assistance to reach those most in need.
1.2 The Emergency Situation
● In March 2017, the UN under secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, declared the East Africa Food crisis. Spread over 4 countries, this is the largest humanitarian crisis since the end of world war two.
● Collective global efforts are needed to mobilise funds and scale up humanitarian assistance.
● Priority needs and funding shortages are in food security, nutrition, WASH and health.
● OCHA state that 23 million people in East Africa currently face crisis levels of food insecurity – a 30% increase compared to a year ago.
● Severely low levels of rainfall at the end of 2016 affected Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya particularly badly. The current situation seen in East Africa is considered worse than the 2011 crisis.
● Three consecutive years of severe weather and years of diminished food production has resulted in crop failures, livestock deaths, lack of food, rising prices, migration and a severe shortage of clean water.
● Ongoing instability and conflicts exacerbate the situation, preventing humanitarian access to some areas. Millions are being displaced or seeking refuge.
● Outbreaks of communicable diseases have also been recorded at rising levels. Coping mechanisms of vulnerable households are stretched to the limit.
● Forecasts for 2017 predict worsening climatic conditions with the lean/ dry season over the summer months and low rainfall forecasted for the main rainy season in March to May. There is an 85% probability of El Nino negatively impacting the second rainy season later in the year.
Table 1: Elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), June - September 2017, http://www.fews.net/east-africa/food-security-outlook/march-2017
Ethiopia is experiencing its worst drought in 50 years. Repeated rainfall failures since 2015 has led to consecutively failed harvests, crop failures, record low vegetation, significant livestock deaths, combined with conflict, insecurity and economic shocks. The number of people in crisis and emergency food insecurity levels (IPC 3 or above) has continued to rise dramatically with over 5.6 million people requiring emergency food assistance, compared to 2.9 million in 2015. 2.7 million children and pregnant and lactating mothers require supplementary feeding and an estimated 303,000 children under five are at risk of becoming severely acutely malnourished (SAM) if not treated. 9.2 million people urgently need access to safe drinking water due to increasing degradation of water points, poor rains and lowering of groundwater levels.
FEWS Net Seasonal Update May 2017: “In Ethiopia, widespread and above-average rainfall during the past several weeks has eased seasonal rainfall deficits that have accumulated since February 2017. The current rains are expected to improve Belg cropping conditions, especially for short-cycle crops and for crops that will not be harvested until the Meher, although cropping prospects remain poorer than usual in southern Belg-producing areas. Similarly, in pastoral areas of eastern and southeastern Ethiopia, including parts of Somali Region, recent moderate to heavy rains have reduced or eliminated Gu rainfall deficits and will likely contribute to improvements in pasture and water availability.”
In South Sudan 7.5 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, including 1.9 million IDPs, 50% of whom are estimated to be children. Added to the escalating conflict in South Sudan, two consecutive years of extreme weather conditions have resulted in a catastrophic humanitarian situation. Lack of animal fodder has resulted in livestock death and low livestock productivity, flooding and droughts have resulted in crop failures and widespread displacement has resulted in a complete collapse of livelihoods for the 3 million people displaced. The continual downwards spiral of the economy has exacerbated the situation. Inflation, (which peaked in Oct 2016 at 835.7%) and the collapsing South Sudanese Pound has resulted in disruption of trade. Food and basic items have become unaffordable for the local population. The effect on food security around the country has been devastating, with 1 in 4 people being classified as severely food insecure in the post-harvest season. The situation is set to deteriorate as the lean season reaches its peak in June and July. OCHA reports that famine has been declared for parts of Unity State in South Sudan.
Somaliland - In March US Ambassador Schwartz declared a disaster in response to the drought and food insecurity conditions in Somalia. 6.2 million people are experiencing acute food security—more than half Somalia’s estimated population[1]. Nearly 3 million people face crisis andemergencylevels of food insecurity (IPCPhases3and4); 320,000 are acutely malnourished children. This is atwo-foldincrease compared to six months ago. The lack of safe drinking water led to an outbreak of AWD/cholera, with 28,408 cases (including 558 deaths) recorded in 2017 alone. Over 1.1 million people are internally displaced and a trend continues for people to migrate towards more urban areas in light of the crisis. 28,000 drought-related displacements were recorded in the week commencing 14 April alone.
Climatic shocks exacerbated by the El Niño phenomena are driving the current humanitarian crisis in Somalia; the performance of the Deyr rains end of 2016 haven't even met the minimum expectation. Insecurity, armed conflict, recurrent human rights violations, political instability and major gaps in the provision of basic services such as the health sector have exacerbated the situation. Income is mostly generated through agriculture and livestock farming, both severely impacted by the current crisis. With supply outstripping demand, prices for basic food and non food items have risen at local markets, drastically diminishing the purchase power for the most vulnerable.
FEWS Net Seasonal Update May 2017: “In Somalia, the onset of Gu rainfall was delayed by 10-20 days and crops are currently in the emergence and early vegetative stage in southern Somalia. In rainfed areas, even if rainfall progresses normally, given the likely timely end to the season, rainfall amounts and duration are unlikely to be sufficient to support average crop development, and sorghum crops are likely to produce below-average yields. Meanwhile, river water levels in the Shabelle River are sufficient to support irrigated cropping and maize production in riverine areas is likely to be near average. However, above-average rainfall forecast over the Ethiopian highlands during the coming weeks may result in flooding along the two river basins, which could result in some crop losses.”
Kenya - The Government of Kenya declared drought a national disaster on 10 February 2017. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance dramatically doubled from 1.3 million people in August 2016 to 2.6 million people. Widespread crop failure, acute water shortages, sharply declining terms of trade for pastoralists and declining animal productivity have had a devastating impact on food security and nutrition conditions. It is estimated that 4 million people will be in need of assistance by July 2017 if the long rains fail. In Northern Kenya food insecurity is high with IPC crisis phase 3 recorded and risk of deterioration into emergency phase 4; GAM rates are already above 30 per cent in some areas.
FEWS Net Seasonal Update May 2017[2]: In Kenya, the recent increase in March to May seasonal rains during the past several weeks has generally been beneficial to both cropping and pastoral areas in the country. For example, cropping conditions have improved significantly in the main maize-producing zones in the western and northern Rift Valley. However, in coastal marginal agricultural areas, the rains may not continue long enough to support crop development for late-planted crops. According to field reports, almost 60 percent of farmers planted late during the month of April. In pastoral areas of northern and eastern Kenya, the current rains are expected to gradually improve pasture and water availability, despite localized flooding that has caused property damage and human and livestock deaths. However, seasonal rainfall is likely to end soon in these areas.
Funding
UN OCHA calls for funding in 2016 were only 66% funded, leaving large gaps and forcing drastic measures to be put in place such as reducing the size of the WFP food ration by up to 50%.
Forecasts[3] - The current rainy season from March to May has been slow to get fully underway in parts of the Eastern Horn, with a delayed and/or below-average rainfalls recorded. This has negative effects on the availability of water and pasture for pastoral households and significantly impacts planting and harvest. With UNOCHA predicting the occurrence of El Niño is at over 85 per cent possibility towards the end of the year, directly affecting the rainy season, the outlook for the region is bleak. The spread of Fall Armyworm which has already been identified in parts of Kenya is another factor to monitor in coming months as it could severely impact crop yields in coming months if it’s progress is not halted.
The response:
The DEC launched an appeal to fundraise for the crisis. Alongside this, Tearfund launched it’s own response. The appeals have been exceptionally successful, and Tearfund has been able to launch a response in all four countries, prioritising scale in Ethiopia and South Sudan.
Tearfund has an established presence in South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somaliland. Tearfund mostly works through a network of longstanding partners, as well as direct operational responses in South Sudan. As such Tearfund did not have to set up additional project locations, take on new partners or bring in operational teams. However, given the large scale of the crisis, exceeding mostly previous size of partner responses, Tearfund has invested in surge support options to build partner capacity, ensure technical project quality as well as supporting in the general oversight and delivery of projects. Responses focus on addressing critical needs across multiple sectors such as food, WASH, nutrition and health and are delivered through a variety of modalities (in kind, voucher and cash).
The East Africa Strategy was developed in the first 2 months of the response and covers programmatic outcomes from initial humanitarian response toward recovery and resilience, as well as ramped up advocacy efforts over a period of 3 years.The Tearfund appeal has raised over £8m[4] of which £1,987,200 is the first allocation of the DEC appeal, £4m has been raised by Tearfund’s own appeal and the remainder has come through a variety of Integral Alliance members and other donors.