Electronic Supplementary material (Online Resources (OR)
Influence of climate change and socio-economic development on catastrophe insurance:
A case study of flood risk scenarios in the Netherlands
Y. Paudel[1]
W.J.W. Botzen, and J.C.J.H. Aerts
Institute for Environmental Studies
VU University Amsterdam
Online Resources (OR) 1: Materials and Methods
OR 1 Relationship between sea level rise and flood return periods
Table OR1 shows flood exceedance probabilities under different climate change scenarios, as have been derived by Aerts and Botzen (2011). The second column in Table OR1 shows the yearly flood return periods for the current situation, which is assumed to comply with the flood defence standards for the year 2015. The fourth and fifth columns show an estimation of flood return periods for the year 2040 under two different climate change scenarios, namely: CC24 and CC60. For example, for dyke-ring area 1 (which is called ‘Schiermonnikoog’), the current flood return period is once in 2000 years. A sea SLR of 24 cm in 2040 leads to a lower return period: namely, once in 622 years. High exceedance probabilities (low return periods) indicate more frequent flood events, which results in higher average annual flood damage and insurance premiums in the future.
Table OR1: Current and projected yearly flood return periods for the 53 dyke-ring areas (Source: Aerts and Botzen, 2011)
Dyke-ring number / Dyke-ring name / Currentclimate / Climate scenario
CC24 / Climate
scenario
CC60
1 / Schiermonnikoog / 2000 / 662 / 126
2 / Ameland / 2000 / 662 / 126
3 / Terschelling / 2000 / 855 / 239
4 / Vlieland / 2000 / 662 / 126
5 / Texel / 4000 / 1325 / 252
6 / Friesland en Groningen / 4000 / 1325 / 252
7 / Noordoostpolder / 4000 / 4000 / 1064
8 / Flevoland / 4000 / 4000 / 1064
9 / Vollenhove / 1250 / 1250 / 333
10 / Mastenbroek / 2000 / 747 / 146
11 / IJsseldelta / 2000 / 783 / 149
12 / Wieringen / 4000 / 1325 / 252
13 / Noord-Holland / 10000 / 4273 / 1194
14 / Zuid-Holland / 10000 / 5012 / 1778
15 / Lopiker- en Krimpenerwaard / 2000 / 632 / 111
16 / Alblasserwaard en Vijfheerenlanden / 2000 / 957 / 299
17 / IJsselmonde / 4000 / 2524 / 625
18 / Pernis / 10000 / 6918 / 3196
19 / Rozenburg / 10000 / 6918 / 3196
20 / Voorne-Putten / 4000 / 1816 / 556
21 / Hoeksche Waard / 2000 / 928 / 158
22 / Eiland van Dordrecht / 2000 / 1002 / 201
23 / Biesbosch / 2000 / 1002 / 201
24 / Land van Altena / 2000 / 632 / 95
25 / Goeree-Overflakkee / 4000 / 1816 / 556
26 / Schouwen Duivenland / 4000 / 1709 / 478
27 / Tholen en St. Philipsland / 4000 / 1709 / 478
28 / Noord Beveland / 4000 / 1709 / 478
29 / Walcheren / 4000 / 1709 / 478
30 / Zuid Beveland west / 4000 / 1709 / 478
31 / Zuid Beveland oost / 4000 / 1709 / 478
32 / Zeeuwsch Vlaanderen / 4000 / 1709 / 478
33 / Kreekrakpolder / 4000 / 4000 / 1233
34 / West-Brabant / 2000 / 1002 / 204
35 / Donge / 2000 / 632 / 92
36 / Land van Heusden/de Maaskant / 1250 / 466 / 82
37 / Nederhemert / 1250 / 498 / 79
38 / Bommelerwaard / 1250 / 498 / 87
39 / Alem / 1250 / 466 / 87
40 / Heerewaarden / 500 / 186 / 35
41 / Land van Maas en Waal / 1250 / 466 / 90
42 / Ooij en Millingen / 1250 / 609 / 224
43 / Betuwe, Tieler- en Culemborgerwaarden / 1250 / 609 / 224
44 / Kromme Rijn / 1250 / 789 / 387
45 / Gelderse Vallei / 1250 / 676 / 269
46 / Eempolder / 1250 / 1250 / 333
47 / Arnhemse- en Velpsebroek / 1250 / 676 / 269
48 / Rijn en IJssel / 1250 / 527 / 167
49 / IJsselland / 1250 / 636 / 230
50 / Zutphen / 1250 / 624 / 219
51 / Gorssel / 1250 / 625 / 219
52 / Oost Veluwe / 1250 / 627 / 223
53 / Salland / 1250 / 626 / 222
The scatter diagram in Fig. OR 1 depicts four sea level rise scenarios− 0, 24, 85, and 150 cm − in relation to the flood reoccurrence interval. This figure shows how the projections of future flood return periods may behave with respect to increasing sea levels for the dyke-ring areas 7, 14 and 36. As can be seen, this relationship appears to follow a negative exponential trend, which may have a significant impact on projections of expected annual future flood damage and associated flood insurance premiums (see Section 2.2.3).
Fig. OR 1 Relationship between sea level rise and its impact on flood reoccurrence intervals (return periods) for dyke-ring areas 7, 36 and 14
OR 2 Relation between sea level rise and flood damage
Fig. OR 2 depicts the projections of flood damage for dyke-ring areas 7, 14 and 36 in relation to the different sea levels for different time periods (2015, 2040 and 2100), under the RC (left) and GE scenarios (right). As can be seen, the relationship appears to be approximately exponential, which seems to be consistent with Fig. OR 1. Several factors, such as economic growth over time and the impact on the flood hazard of sea level rise that results from climate change, could describe this exponential relationship. This may justify our choice for the exponential interpolation used to derive the future projections of flood damage under a sea level rise of 60 cm.
Fig. OR 2 Projected sea level rise with respect to flood damage in 2015, 2040 and 2100 under RC (left) and GE (right) scenarios
OR 3 Projections of future flood damage in 2040 and 2100 under 24 and 85 cm sea level rise
Table OR 3 shows the current and future projected flood damage under four scenarios as reported by Aerts and Botzen (2011). For example, the RC40SLR24 (column 3) represents the flood damage projection under a 24 cm sea level rise and the RC scenario for socio-economic development in 2040. The GE2100SLR85 (column 6) stands for the average flood damage with a sea level rise of 85 cm under GE scenarios.
Table OR 3 Current and projected flood damage estimates under four scenarios (in million €, Source: Aerts and Botzen, 2011)
Nr. / Dyke name / Current / RC40SLR24 / RC2100
SLR85 / GE40
SLR24 / GE2100
SLR85
1 / Schiermonnikoog / 114 / 209 / 597 / 213 / 776
2 / Ameland / 381 / 620 / 2048 / 685 / 2405
3 / Terschelling / 254 / 450 / 1440 / 455 / 1694
4 / Vlieland / 25 / 51 / 258 / 125 / 448
5 / Texel / 2918 / 5156 / 13995 / 4857 / 20499
6 / Friesland en Groningen / 761 / 1735 / 8295 / 2073 / 12699
7 / Noordoostpolder / 2665 / 5833 / 13921 / 6420 / 30682
8 / Flevoland / 8882 / 16948 / 66041 / 22877 / 102785
9 / Vollenhove / 3362 / 7767 / 46093 / 10964 / 92134
10 / Mastenbroek / 1903 / 3592 / 11127 / 4095 / 15525
11 / IJsseldelta / 1523 / 2251 / 10041 / 3626 / 14775
12 / Wieringen / 3933 / 8897 / 22181 / 16969 / 85369
13 / Noord-Holland / 4568 / 8289 / 26270 / 12031 / 45789
14 / Zuid-Holland / 23600 / 43824 / 210595 / 64690 / 302988
15 / Lopiker- en Krimpenerwaard / 6471 / 12097 / 42723 / 13712 / 46440
16 / Alblasserwaard en Vijfheerenlanden / 27026 / 51443 / 148359 / 58439 / 208298
17 / IJsselmonde / 12815 / 18730 / 55297 / 27162 / 88765
18 / Pernis / 634 / 1209 / 3734 / 1361 / 4830
19 / Rozenburg / 1776 / 3291 / 10900 / 3098 / 11014
20 / Voorne-Putten / 11420 / 20160 / 59468 / 28091 / 105978
21 / Hoeksche Waard / 4060 / 10517 / 35152 / 11213 / 52433
22 / Eiland van Dordrecht / 11420 / 17261 / 62260 / 31699 / 104902
23 / Biesbosch / 76 / 115 / 415 / 211 / 699
24 / Land van Altena / 3045 / 6410 / 16048 / 6796 / 53449
25 / Goeree-Overflakkee / 2665 / 8855 / 32435 / 18448 / 82441
26 / Schouwen Duivenland / 3172 / 6847 / 21709 / 7340 / 32068
27 / Tholen en St. Philipsland / 1649 / 3044 / 9601 / 3352 / 13382
28 / Noord Beveland / 508 / 1072 / 3698 / 1168 / 4661
29 / Walcheren / 10151 / 13292 / 48932 / 19362 / 72644
30 / Zuid Beveland west / 6725 / 12842 / 52553 / 22147 / 94746
31 / Zuid Beveland oost / 3045 / 6119 / 19892 / 11981 / 70808
32 / Zeeuwsch Vlaanderen / 1142 / 1931 / 6133 / 2310 / 9594
33 / Kreekrakpolder / 19 / 50 / 178 / 56 / 235
34 / West-Brabant / 7359 / 35526 / 124340 / 41018 / 176376
35 / Donge / 4441 / 8530 / 26978 / 10446 / 67637
36 / Land van Heusden/de Maaskant / 4822 / 7226 / 21378 / 10454 / 58918
37 / Nederhemert / 4 / 8 / 19 / 8 / 29
38 / Bommelerwaard / 3553 / 6278 / 12891 / 8612 / 28382
39 / Alem / 38 / 122 / 136 / 60 / 154
40 / Heerewaarden / 51 / 117 / 172 / 81 / 225
41 / Land van Maas en Waal / 6598 / 10424 / 29559 / 16704 / 52503
42 / Ooij en Millingen / 1269 / 2277 / 4278 / 2258 / 7110
43 / Betuwe, Tieler- en Culemborgerwaarden / 17510 / 29919 / 71443 / 46911 / 154292
44 / Kromme Rijn / 6979 / 12363 / 47805 / 20730 / 80288
45 / Gelderse Vallei / 6852 / 10070 / 25662 / 13528 / 37121
46 / Eempolder / 127 / 282 / 2305 / 511 / 3737
47 / Arnhemse- en Velpsebroek / 888 / 926 / 3311 / 1550 / 4027
48 / Rijn en IJssel / 6217 / 9543 / 25735 / 15255 / 50030
49 / IJsselland / 508 / 952 / 1848 / 873 / 2505
50 / Zutphen / 2284 / 3308 / 8646 / 3693 / 9996
51 / Gorssel / 381 / 687 / 2498 / 1150 / 3032
52 / Oost Veluwe / 2665 / 4720 / 10624 / 5901 / 19182
53 / Salland / 6852 / 11129 / 34127 / 12212 / 46752
OR 4 Projections of future flood damage
Table OR 4 shows the intercept and slope of the results of an exponential regression of flood damage on sea level rise, which has been used to estimate potential flood damage under a 60cm of sea level rise (4th and 7th column in Table OR 4).
Table OR 4 Projected flood damage estimates in 2040 with a 60 cm sea level rise (damage in million €)
Dyke-ring Nr. / RC2040-SLR60 / GE2040-SLR60Intercept / Slope / Damage / Intercept / Slope / Damage
1 / 122 / 0190 / 380 / 119 / 0223 / 451
2 / 383 / 0198 / 1253 / 392 / 0215 / 1423
3 / 263 / 0202 / 883 / 259 / 0222 / 981
4 / 26 / 0272 / 132 / 36 / 0313 / 236
5 / 3089 / 0180 / 9117 / 2865 / 0231 / 11433
6 / 814 / 0276 / 4270 / 836 / 0324 / 5854
7 / 3073 / 0184 / 9287 / 2902 / 0281 / 15700
8 / 9206 / 0233 / 37364 / 9961 / 0280 / 53411
9 / 3514 / 0305 / 21887 / 3758 / 0382 / 37083
10 / 2024 / 0203 / 6856 / 2058 / 0241 / 8756
11 / 1429 / 0226 / 5559 / 1686 / 0260 / 8026
12 / 4559 / 0193 / 14510 / 5136 / 0343 / 40223
13 / 4782 / 0203 / 16121 / 5270 / 0261 / 25225
14 / 23610 / 0257 / 110659 / 26862 / 0291 / 154008
15 / 6747 / 0219 / 25115 / 7063 / 0226 / 27345
16 / 29081 / 0195 / 93758 / 29499 / 0234 / 120109
17 / 12624 / 0173 / 35663 / 14052 / 0221 / 52955
18 / 677 / 0204 / 2301 / 691 / 0233 / 2792
19 / 1862 / 0210 / 6567 / 1809 / 0213 / 6508
20 / 11958 / 0191 / 37580 / 12901 / 0253 / 59011
21 / 4736 / 0243 / 20347 / 4634 / 0292 / 26646
22 / 11087 / 0202 / 37173 / 13640 / 0248 / 60482
23 / 74 / 0202 / 248 / 91 / 0248 / 403
24 / 3446 / 0187 / 10565 / 3037 / 0337 / 22976
25 / 3330 / 0278 / 17666 / 4115 / 0373 / 38521
26 / 3512 / 0219 / 13070 / 3449 / 0266 / 17034
27 / 1737 / 0204 / 5891 / 1739 / 0242 / 7452
28 / 552 / 0228 / 2164 / 557 / 0254 / 2561
29 / 9384 / 0191 / 29457 / 10571 / 0229 / 41676
30 / 6929 / 0240 / 29201 / 8216 / 0297 / 48796
31 / 3284 / 0215 / 11960 / 3782 / 0355 / 31767
32 / 1168 / 0196 / 3790 / 1196 / 0247 / 5269
33 / 22 / 0252 / 101 / 22 / 0284 / 123
34 / 10435 / 0308 / 66105 / 10649 / 0347 / 85593
35 / 4737 / 0208 / 16465 / 4617 / 0318 / 31045
36 / 4787 / 0176 / 13739 / 4969 / 0292 / 28710
37 / 4 / 0179 / 12 / 4 / 0236 / 17
38 / 3897 / 0145 / 9303 / 4064 / 0235 / 16634
39 / 55 / 0124 / 115 / 39 / 0162 / 104
40 / 63 / 0128 / 136 / 52 / 0174 / 147
41 / 6700 / 0175 / 19184 / 7700 / 0233 / 31161
42 / 1415 / 0135 / 3184 / 1321 / 0200 / 4383
43 / 18638 / 0161 / 48961 / 20692 / 0244 / 89507
44 / 7069 / 0225 / 27344 / 8351 / 0275 / 43373
45 / 6889 / 0155 / 17457 / 7508 / 0192 / 23795
46 / 126 / 0342 / 978 / 155 / 0384 / 1547
47 / 766 / 0165 / 2065 / 942 / 0174 / 2670
48 / 6294 / 0166 / 17066 / 7144 / 0235 / 29335
49 / 572 / 0144 / 1353 / 529 / 0185 / 1604
50 / 2278 / 0157 / 5837 / 2350 / 0172 / 6582
51 / 391 / 0219 / 1458 / 481 / 0227 / 1883
52 / 2891 / 0157 / 7411 / 2965 / 0225 / 11411
53 / 6950 / 0188 / 21456 / 6963 / 0225 / 26822
OR 5 Scaling factors of the projected increase in flood damage
Table OR 5 Scaling factors of increase in flood damage from 2015 to 2040 for future flood risk scenarios
Dyke-ring Nr. / RC2040-SLR24 / RC2040-SLR60 / GE2040-SLR24 / GE2040-SLR601 / 183% / 333% / 187% / 395%
2 / 163% / 329% / 180% / 374%
3 / 177% / 348% / 179% / 387%
4 / 199% / 518% / 492% / 928%
5 / 177% / 312% / 166% / 392%
6 / 228% / 561% / 272% / 769%
7 / 219% / 349% / 241% / 589%
8 / 191% / 421% / 258% / 601%
9 / 231% / 651% / 326% / 1103%
10 / 189% / 360% / 215% / 460%
11 / 148% / 365% / 238% / 527%
12 / 226% / 369% / 431% / 1023%
13 / 181% / 353% / 263% / 552%