1
Erik Jensen
Professor Stephen Delong
GEO-222
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Assessing the Kyoto Protocol based on Actualized and Intended Effect
The world celebrated February 16, 2005. Eight years after its final draft opened for signatures, the Kyoto Protocol went into full effect when the Russian Federation signed, bringing the requisite 55% of the world’s pollution under the Kyoto provisions (Force, 2005). Economic incentives burst onto the scene and while Europe reveled in its proven influence over Russia and Japan basked in the pomp and circumstance of its formal ceremony, but did anything actually occur? No solid consensus exists within either the scientific or economic communities, but data from individual projects looks promising. Kyoto can be assessed by two sets of criteria: actualized and intended effect, and while the actualized effect may be weak or never fully develop, the intended effect clearly guides and encourages positive change in controlling CO2 emissions.
Hailed as the beginning of extensive, long-term ecological reform, Kyoto emerged in the initial dialogues of concerned nations in 1992 and was formally written in 1997 (Force, 2005). Member states pledged themselves to a number of requirements: mainly to reduce the overall emissions output of the world overall by 5.2% by 2012 from their 1990 output and adhere to an emissions trade system (Q&A, 2005). To ensure a real impact, Kyoto also called for two prerequisites: ratification by at least 55 nations (reached in 2002) and for 55% of the world’s total emissions to be under the protocol (reached in November 2004) (Q&A, 2005).
The intended effect, of course, in reducing global emissions is to help alleviate the recent global warming epidemic. The actualized effect, ideally, would be the same as the intended, but the failure of the United States to ratify the treaty and their withdrawal from the treaty in 2001 significantly hinders the Kyoto’s effectiveness(Q&A, 2005). Further complications arise from the fact that ‘developing nations’ such as China and India - themselves large contributors to worldwide emissions - are not required to adhere to the Protocol. United States officials within the Bush administration cite that one particular problem along with the economic burden of the treaty as reasons to not participate (Q&A, 2005).
The economics of the treaty involve the introduction of an international trade-and-cap system. Trade-and-cap is a mixed incentive program, rewarding those who meet their quotas and penalizing those who do not.Essentially, Kyoto places a cap on how much an individual nation may emit. They receive X credits equivalent to that amount. If that nation needs to emit more than their cap, they must buy (“trade”) credits with another nation (who is emitting below their cap) to do so. Thus, the original nation receives a negative incentive in the form of monetary lose, while the second nation’s ability to produce below the cap earns them a positive incentive in receiving that money. Some hail this system as an example of the first free-market incentive system to hold individuals and nations accountable (Q&A, 2005).
Critics of the system cite the eccentricity of its system and the lack of a centralized authority as two major problems within the treaty. Bell (2006) argues that the cap-and-trade system is based on similar programs in the United States which are merely experimental and having never been tested outside of the United States, could cause extreme difficulties for all members of the treaty. Furthermore, the complexities of Kyoto’s incentive system may frazzle ‘developing nations’ (meant to imply, in this case, former Soviet nations) which lack the essential equipment and competency to enforce the system (Bell 2006).
Similarly, Bell views the lack of a centralized authority as a lack of any sort of enforcement. She posits, however, that if Kyoto is to succeed it requires genuine commitment to the cap-and-trade system. Interestingly, Bell points to the United States as the first nation that must make that commitment for others to follow by example (Bell 2006).
Weiner et al (2006) respond directly to Bell’s concerns. They argue that the benefits of a cap-and-trade system - including cost reduction and increased innovation – far outweigh Bell’s preferred command-and-control regulation system. Bell’s assertion that powerful regulatory agencies will control the system does not directly address what Weiner et al perceives as her central concern: weak governance. Instead, they posit that if governmental regulation is the primary problem, then the solution must be a reorganization of incentives to create better governance (Weiner et al).
Regardless, Kyoto’s actualized effect is relatively poor in scope. Already established is the fact that United States’ (which accounts for 25% of worldwide emissions) uncooperative stance exacerbates the problem (Q&A, 2005). Furthermore, developing nations such as China – which produces 14% of all emissions (Q&A, 2005) – and India are not required to meet targets or even develop a system (Bell). Still further, some signatories simply do not believe they can reach their projected goals. Canada, one of the first nations to ratify Kyoto, has no clear plan for action while other nations, Japan included, doubt their ability to cut emissions in the specific timeframe allowed by Kyoto. Far from ending emissions, the nations under Kyoto can expect to see to total emissions rise to 20% above their 1990 numbers by 2010 (Force, 2005).
Bell discusses the view of some economists who insist that our goal should no longer be the hindrance of emissions but ratherto develop plans to avoid major loss of human life (Bell). Overall, Kyoto’s actualized effect has resoundingly failed to manifest.
While evidence of Kyoto’s failure abounds, the intended effect of Kyoto has not. Scientists and politicians have already met in 2005 in Montreal to begin planning for the next phase following Kyoto’s expiration in 2012 (Q&A, 2005). Current published literature also demonstrates methods and results of individual areas in combating the ever-growing emissions problem. Almost all of these areas clearly show progress.
José Burón et al (2006) project transportation emissions levels considering newly introduced regulations in Spain, which joined Kyoto with the European Union bloc in 2002. By 2007, they expect that while emissions progressively will be emitted in higher levels during each year due to increased mobility, this growth will be significantly stunted by the new regulations introducedto automakers in the European Union. While emissions will grow each year, as the mobility of older vehicles decreases, so will the amount of growth at which emissions will be emitted (Burón et al, 2006).
Clearly Kyoto’s intended effect is present in this scenario. As a bloc, the European Union pledged to reduce its overall emissions by 8%, one of the largest cuts any bloc or nation committed to (Q&A, 2005). In order to comply, European lawmakers asked business to comply, and these projections display a positive effect from that. The study’s conclusion optimistically projects an overall cut in all greenhouse gases except for CO2 which should grow slightly but as a result of new technologies and more fuel-efficiency should also gradually decrease by 2010 (Burón et al).
In an even more positive forecast, C.A. Pimenteira et al (2004) discuss the positive effects of recycling in Brazil, labeled as a “developing nation” by the Kyoto Protocol. According to data from Calderoni (1997) potentially 27189.78 GWh of energy and 697,000 tons of waste can be saved by recycling in Brazil. Consult Figure 1 for various scenarios on the abilities of recycling in Brazil (Pimenteira et al, 2004). Overall, Pimenteira et al relates these findings to emissions and speculates that the relationship between recycling and reduced emissions receives less attention than it warrants.
The paper concludes explaining the relationship between the amount of recycling performed and the correlated reduction of relative emissions. If 100% of all Brazilian waste was recycled in 1996, 29.21 TWh could be conserved and thereby reduce the total emissions of the nation by 18.3 Mt of CO2 in future years. A less conservative model projects 28.4 M t of CO2(Pimenteira et al, 2004). See Figure 2 for the full projection estimates from the study. Based on the percentage of waste recycled, the emissions reduced are on a relative scale (Pimenteira et al, 2004).
Furthermore, because over 90% of Brazil’s energy is produced by hydroelectric sources, the total amount of energy preserved (and thus emissions reduced) would be much larger in nations highly dependent on fossil fuels (Pimenteira et al, 2004). Interestingly, this study was done before the start of the Kyoto Protocol, meaning the effect could be even greater after the introduction of emissions trading. Pimenteira acknowledges the nobility of Kyoto in his conclusions, calling for its continued promotion in the wake of his research.
Kyoto’s intended effect most clearly manifests in individual sectors and most interestingly in the United States itself. Starting in 2009, eight Northeastern states – Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, and Vermont – shall enter into an agreement called the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), which shall create a Kyoto-like emissions trading system between the individual states.They plan to cap emissions at 121 million tons/year until 2015 at which point they will introduce regulations requiring an annual cut of 2.5% in total emissions until 2019 (Sissell, 2006).
Under RGGI, several BosWash corridor cities (including Augusta, Hartford, Trenton, Baltimore, and most prominently New York City) shall be reduce their emissions, significantly reducing overall United States emissions levels (Sissell, 2006). Under that system, most of the original initially industrialized areas of the nation will begin helping to lower worldwide emissions problems. Sissell notes that the states adopted the plan in response to the Bush administration’s decision to not ratify Kyoto.
Clearly, while Kyoto struggles on a global basis, individual areas and sectors are taking its intended effect to heart. If the European Union were to be successful at reaching its goal of 8%, they would be at similar levels to China’s current position (Q&A, 2005). Likewise, any reduction in U.S. emissions levels (if only in a select region) begins the process and dialogue necessary for the continuation and proliferation of emissions reduction. The Kyoto Protocol, while limited in scope and effectiveness, begins the inertia necessary for future treaties.
Figure 1.
Recycling and energy saving specific data for Brazilian industry
Electric energy spent on the production (MWh/ton): / Energy savings / Potential (GWh) / Recycling potential (1000 tons)From raw materials / From recycled material / (MWH/ton) / (%)
Aluminum / 17.6 / 0.70 / 16.9 / 96.00 / 338.00 / 20
Plastic / 6.74 / 1.44 / 5.3 / 78.63 / 2607.60 / 492
Paper / 4.98 / 1.47 / 3.51 / 70.48 / 13892.58 / 3958
Steel / 6.84 / 1.78 / 5.06 / 74.97 / 10018.8 / 198
Glass / 4.83 / 4.19 / 0.64 / 13.25 / 332.80 / 520
Total / – / – / – / – / 27189.78 / 697
Source: Calderoni (1997).
Figure 2:
Avoided CO2 emission (Mega Tons) – Scenario I
Exogenous variable / Model’s output (avoided CO2 emission) / TotalRecycling ratea / Energy saving (TWh/year) / AE2000 / AE2001 / AE2002 / AE2003 / AE2004 / AE2005 / AE2006 / AE2007
Scenario I
100% / 29.91 / 8.02 / 6.29 / 0.67 / 0.67 / 0.67 / 0.67 / 0.67 / 0.67 / 18.34
90% / 26.92 / 8.02 / 4.95 / 0.60 / 0.60 / 0.60 / 0.60 / 0.60 / 0.60 / 16.59
70% / 20.94 / 7.00 / 2.27 / 0.47 / 0.47 / 0.47 / 0.47 / 0.47 / 0.47 / 12.09
50% / 14.96 / 4.32 / 0.34 / 0.34 / 0.34 / 0.34 / 0.34 / 0.34 / 0.34 / 6.67
30% / 8.97 / 1.63 / 0.20 / 0.20 / 0.20 / 0.20 / 0.20 / 0.20 / 0.20 / 3.04
10% / 2.99 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.07 / 0.54
5% / 1.50 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.03 / 0.27
1% / 0.30 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.01 / 0.05
aOver 1996 potential.
Source: Pimenteira et al (2004)
Works Cited
Bell, Ruth G. "The Kyoto Placebo." Issues in Technology & Science 22 (2006). 16 Oct. 2006.
Burón, José M et al. "Estimation of the Input Data for the Prediction of Road Transportation Emissions in Spain From 2000 to 2010 Considering Several Scenarios." Atmospheric Environment 39.30 (2005). ScienceDirect. Cole Library, Mount Vernon, IA. 08 Oct. 2006. Keyword: Kyoto Protocol.
"Kyoto Protocol Comes Into Force." BBC News. 16 Feb. 2005. BBC News. 08 Oct. 2006 <
Pimenteira, C. A. et al. "Energy Conservation and CO2 Emission Reductions Due to Recycling in Brazil." Waste Management 24.9 (2004). ScienceDirect. Cole Library, Mt. Vernon, IA. 08 Oct. 2006. Keyword: Emissions Trading.
"Q&A: The Kyoto Protocol." BBC News. 16 Feb. 2006. BBC News. 08 Oct. 2006 <
Sissell, Kara. "Seven States Finalize Rule for CO2 Emission Trading Program." Chemical Week 168.28 (2006). Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Cole Library, Mt. Vernon, IA. 08 Oct. 2006. Keyword: New York Emissions Trading.
Weiner, Jonathan B. et al. "Save the Kyoto Protocol." Issues in Science & Technology 22.3 (2006). Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Cole Library, Mt. Vernon, IA. 8 Oct. 2006.