North Dakota Census Office Population Projections of the State, Regions and Counties 2016
NORTH DAKOTA CENSUS OFFICE POPULATION PROJECTIONS
OF THE STATE, REGIONS AND COUNTIES 2016
Presented as of January 19, 2016 from the North Dakota Department of Commerce –Census Office
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North Dakota Census Office Population Projections of the State, Regions and Counties 2016
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ...... 1
Methodology...... 4
Change in Population by Region.6
Change in Demographics...... 7
Expected Migration Scenario...9
Low Migration Scenario ...... 15
High Migration Scenario...... 21
This paper provides three scenarios of population change for the state of North Dakota. Each of the scenarios use the same inputs such as fertility rates by age of the mother or life expectancy with the expectation of the rate of migration into or out of a given county, region or the state. This paper is an attempt to present what is expected to be the population of each county, region and the state at the mid-point of each five year interval.
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North Dakota Census Office Population Projections of the State, Regions and Counties 2016
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The North Dakota Department of Commerce – Census Office prepared population projections for the state using high, expected and low rates of migration between now and 2040.Both the high and low projections are variations for the expected scenario, but vary on the number of individuals expected to migrate into the state.All three scenarios assume in-migration will exceed out-migration for the next several years.
The state of North Dakota is projected to reach a population between 800,000 and 849,000 by 2020, of between 879,000 and 984,000 by 2030, and between 923,000 and 1,060,000 by 2040.The expected or most likely populations for the state are approximately 824,000 in 2020, a growth of 23 percent from 2010; 932,000 in 2030, a growth of 38 percent from 2010; and 992,000 in 2040, a growth of 48 percent from 2010.
The national recession beginning in 2007 and revolutionary changes in the extraction of oil from shale has greatly impacted North Dakota the past few years. Since 2010, the state has gained an estimated 84,000 additional residents, and reached an estimated population of 757,000 as of July 1, 2015. A significant reversal of out-migration, an influx in the number of adults of childbearing age, and corresponding increase in the number of child births has changed the make-up of the state’s population the past few years.
North Dakota / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040Expected Migration Scenario / 672,591 / 756,927 / 824,344 / 884,874 / 931,506 / 966,375 / 991,522
High Migration Scenario / 672,591 / 756,927 / 848,563 / 925,164 / 984,147 / 1,027,760 / 1,059,672
Low Migration Scenario / 672,591 / 756,927 / 800,124 / 844,583 / 878,865 / 904,990 / 923,372
Three scenarios are presented in this paper with each assuming a higher rate of in-migration to the state in the earlier years and a gradual level off in future years. No scenario with net out-migration was developed, as a net loss of residents due to migration appears unlikely for the next several years. All three scenarios use the same estimates for migration through 2015 but vary after this point.
In-migration impacts the state’s future natural rate of growth just as it has in the recent past. The more individuals of childbearing ages that migrate into the state, the greater the number of child births that are expected to occur.In addition, in-migration of younger individuals appears to have a corresponding impact on out-migration of older residents. In the recent past, for those counties that have experienced the highest overall growth there appears to be a higher out-migration of older residents from these areas. Older residents appear to be migrating into the Bismarck and Fargo regions or out of state.
Many areas in the western region of the state have become “work place” destinations where the worker resides in a different region of the state or in a different state. The population numbers presented do not include non-resident workers anticipated to remain residents of other states or nations.
A NOTE OF CAUTION
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North Dakota Census Office Population Projections of the State, Regions and Counties 2016
These projections are an attempt to provide the most likely outcome of population change expected in the state.
Past long-term projections have often been proven to be an inaccurate forecast of what North Dakota’s population has turned out to be.As an example, the 2005 Census Bureau state-level population projections indicated the state of North Dakota would continuously lose population and would have approximately 606,000 individuals by 2030. At this point, these projections appear highly unlikely.
Fluctuation in prices of the state’s exports will likely continue, as has been the case recently in both agricultural and mining sectors. It is impossible to forecast how these changes will play out or what impact they will have on the overall population of the state, regions or counties over time.In addition, the oil boom in western North Dakota appears to have reversed a decades’ long trend of out-migration.The pattern of migration that is believed to have occurred since 2010 is likely to shift again with time. Given the dramatic shift in migration as a result of oil field development, the opportunity for these projections to be fallible must be considered.
In the end, the estimated rate of migration for each scenario is subjective.The projection of migration also depends upon the accuracy of the 2014 and 2015 population estimates which are expected to have some imprecision compared to an actual census. The projections of migration are based upon the best data that is currently available at this point in time.
In each of the three scenarios presented, the population of each county is summed to estimate the population of the region at a given point in time. Similarly, the region total under each scenario is used to project the total of the state at a given point in time.It is unlikely that the scenarios will play out uniformly, so, the total for the state and the regions will likely differ from what is presented here.
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North Dakota Census Office Population Projections of the State, Regions and Counties 2016
METHODOLOGY
The process used in these projections isa modified version of thecohort survival componentmethod – the most commonly used method of projections.State-level expected migration is distributed to county level based on the net state level migration possible under each scenario.
Projections are based upon the population by age and sex found in each county in 2010.The population of each county was “aged” forward to 2015 to determine the most likely population of each age group and sex if no migration had occurred.The resulting data was then prorated back to what differences would be expected to be found in the 2014 population estimate, by age and sex, to estimate the approximate 5-year cohort size for each age and sex in each county. The differences found between what would be expected if there was no migration in each 5-year age groups, and 53 counties (1,908 individual cells) were then compared to estimate migration numbers during this timeframe for each age group and sex in each county. These factors became the basis to determine the percentage of the state’s overall migration in or out for each age group and sex in each county, region and the state as a whole.
Fertility, rate of births and,age of the mother was determined from data provided by the North Dakota Department of Health’s records from 2008 through 2013.Results by county were smoothed to reduce anomalies in the number of births during this timeframe. Children projected to be born to women who recently migrated into the state are treated as part of the net migration for each of the five year periods.
Life expectancy is based upon data from the Social Security Administration without consideration for race. The tables by age group and sex for 2010 were used in the timeframe from 2010 to 2020, tables for 2020 were used for the timeframe 2020 to 2030 and tables for 2030 were used from 2030 to 2040. As a result of this application, life expectancy may be somewhat conservative in most counties but somewhat liberal in those with higher American Indian populations.
Migration is by far the most problematic factor to predict and the most important, as about three-fourth of the state’s net population change between 2010 and 2015 was a result of migration. The forecast number of economic migrants in the Regional Economic Model (REMI) Policy Insight PlusModel for North Dakota was used to forecast the overall number of migration for each5-year period of time.Past REMI forecasts were compared to the Census Bureau’s estimate of net annual migration and used to predict state level totals for future years.There were substantial changes from REMI PI+ forecast for economic migrants in their release for 2014 and 2015.As a result, the two forecasts were averaged together.Because REMI’s forecast appeared higher than felt probable,the result was reduced by 30 percentfor each 5-year period from 2015 through 2040 in the expected migration scenario.
The sex ratio of future migration is another area that is problematic. Data from the Census Bureau’s Population Program indicates, that so far this decade, the state has experienced a net gain of new residents as a result of migration at an approximate rate of 1.5 males for every for every female.We assumed future migration would be more balanced between the sexes, as the surge in male dominated jobs in the western part of the state has leveled off. These projections assume an equal number of males and females migrating into the state in all future years.
Three scenarios were considered, each based upon the rate of migration. Counties that have experienced out-migration since 2010 are likely to continue that trend. In the expected scenario 36 counties are expected to grow, with 17 losing population through 2040.
EXPECTED MIGRATION SCENARIO
The population of the state is expected to grow continuously from now to 2040, but begin to slow after 2030.
COMPONENTS OF CHANGE
Population change is generally counted in two ways: natural growth (births minus deaths) and net migration.There is a high level of interaction between these two components as the age groups most likely to migrate are those of, or near, child bearing ages and young children.Increased migration into the state has resulted in a significant increase in childbirths within the past few years. Under our expected migration scenario, this component is expected to continue to be a factor in the state’s population growth between now and 2025.Afterwards, natural growth is expected to surpass migration as the primary driver in the growth of the state’s population. Natural growth is expected to reach its highest level of contribution to the state’s population increase during the timeframe from 2026 and 2030 and slowly taper off afterwards, but remain positive.
CHANGE IN POPULATION BY REGIONS
In the expected migration scenario the western four combined economicregions (Williston, Minot, Dickinson and Bismarck) reach a population surpassing the four combined eastern regions (Devils Lake, Grand Forks, Jamestown and Fargo) of the state between 2025 and 2030. Under the high migration scenario, this would occur prior, between 2020 and 2025.Under the low migration scenario, the western four regions do not surpass the eastern four regions prior to the end of the timeframe included in the model.
Under all three migration scenarios, the Fargo Region would continue to have the highest percentage of the state population dominated by Cass County, with the Bismarck Region remaining the second largest region, dominated by the population of Burleigh and Morton counties.Likewise, Cass County remains the largest county in terms of population.As early as last year (2015), Ward County was expected to be the third largest county,surpassing Grand Fork County,in both the expected migration scenario and the high migration scenario but not in the low migration scenario.
All three scenarios had similar results for both the Devils Lake and the Jamestown regions. For example, in the Jamestown Region, the low migration scenario resulted in a population of 55,000 in 2040, while the high scenario resulted in a population of just over 56,000.The Devils Lake Region likely has a lower projected population under the high migration scenario than under the low migration scenario as this region has had a net-outmigration in the past few years.
Not surprisingly, those regions that have experienced the largest growth also have the largest range between the high and low scenarios.Under the expected migration scenario, the Williston Region would reach a resident population of about 99,000 in 2040.However, this could range from approximately 82,000 under the low migration scenario to approximately 117,000 under the high migration scenario, a difference of nearly 42 percent.
Similar to the Williston Region, the Dickinson Region would have an expected population of approximately 70,000. However, this could range from approximately 62,000 under the low migration scenario to approximately 79,000 under the high migration scenario, a difference of nearly 27 percent.
CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC MAKEUP OF THE STATE OVER TIME
Population of Children, Residents Under Age 18
In all three scenarios the population of resident childrengrows in the state.In the expected migration scenario,child population would grow from about 153,000 to 240,000 by 2030 and continue to grow after this timeframe, but begin to level off towards the end of the timeframe in these projections.
ChildrenAges
0 to 17 / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
Expected / 152,945 / 176,759 / 200,793 / 224,030 / 240,241 / 250,131 / 253,538
Low / 152,945 / 176,759 / 194,395 / 213,594 / 224,976 / 230,933 / 230,959
High / 152,945 / 176,759 / 207,191 / 234,466 / 255,505 / 269,329 / 276,116
Young Children, Residents Under Age 5
Under the expected migration scenario continue to grow reaching its highest point in 2030 at about 71,000 and decline slightly afterwards.
ChildrenAges
0 - 4 / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
Expected / 44,595 / 52,338 / 60,848 / 67,345 / 70,505 / 70,340 / 70,253
Low / 44,595 / 52,338 / 60,362 / 63,723 / 63,969 / 63,876 / 63,826
High / 44,595 / 52,338 / 61,335 / 70,967 / 77,041 / 76,805 / 76,679
Workforce Age Group, Ages 18 – 64
The primary workforce age group is expected to grow continuously throughout the timeframe of the projections. In the expected migration scenario, those under age 35 begins to level off after 2025 and decline slightly through 2035.In the low migration scenario, this leveling off begins after 2020. In the high migration scenario, this leveling off does not occur until 2030.
Workforce Ages18 - 64 / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
Expected / 422,169 / 473,329 / 501,430 / 521,097 / 538,448 / 561,274 / 584,250
Low / 422,169 / 473,329 / 483,801 / 491,146 / 501,299 / 520,629 / 541,317
High / 422,169 / 473,329 / 519,059 / 551,049 / 575,596 / 601,918 / 627,182
Age 65Plus Residents
Regardless of the migration scenario considered, the population of age 65 plus tended to be fairly consistent with only a few thousand found between the low and the high migration scenarios.
Age 65 Plus / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040Expected / 97,477 / 106,839 / 122,120 / 139,747 / 152,818 / 154,970 / 153,734
Low / 97,477 / 106,839 / 121,928 / 139,844 / 152,590 / 153,428 / 151,095
High / 97,477 / 106,839 / 122,313 / 139,649 / 153,046 / 156,513 / 156,373
Age 85 Plus Residents
Similar to what was found with the Age 65 plus population, the age 85 plus population tended to be fairly consistent regardless of the migration scenario considered.However, as there tends to be a slight out-migration of individuals over age 60, an increase in total migration results in the lowest number of individuals in this age range towards the end of the timeframe considered.
Age 85 Plus / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040Expected / 16,688 / 18,333 / 17,983 / 17,290 / 17,458 / 20,001 / 23,873
Low / 16,688 / 18,333 / 17,417 / 16,648 / 16,967 / 19,789 / 23,932
High / 16,688 / 18,333 / 18,549 / 17,933 / 17,950 / 20,212 / 23,814
EXPECTED MIGRATION SCENARIO
This scenario assumes that the net migration will be approximately 98,000 additional residents between 2015 and 2040.
Summary of Projections (Expected Migration Scenario)
2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040North Dakota / 672,591 / 756,927 / 824,344 / 884,874 / 931,506 / 966,375 / 991,522
East and West Region of the State (Combined) / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
East Four Regions / 371,035 / 397,713 / 421,491 / 444,060 / 462,994 / 478,102 / 488,954
West Four Regions / 301,556 / 359,215 / 402,853 / 440,813 / 468,512 / 488,273 / 502,568
North Dakota’s Economic Planning Regions / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
Region 1 (Williston) / 30,829 / 49,306 / 63,473 / 76,282 / 86,183 / 93,581 / 99,302
Region 2 (Minot) / 89,967 / 103,736 / 114,796 / 124,823 / 132,542 / 138,505 / 143,189
Region 3 (Devils Lake) / 40,672 / 41,731 / 43,045 / 44,534 / 46,263 / 47,866 / 49,317
Region 4 (Grand Forks) / 88,519 / 92,333 / 97,463 / 103,096 / 108,926 / 114,126 / 117,474
Region 5 (Fargo) / 185,481 / 207,484 / 224,981 / 240,400 / 251,766 / 260,194 / 266,498
Region 6 (Jamestown) / 56,363 / 56,165 / 56,003 / 56,030 / 56,040 / 55,916 / 55,664
Region 7 (Bismarck) / 141,864 / 157,696 / 169,135 / 178,332 / 184,262 / 187,762 / 189,671
Region 8 (Dickinson) / 38,896 / 48,476 / 55,449 / 61,377 / 65,523 / 68,425 / 70,407
Summary of Projections (Expected Migration Scenario)
North Dakota Counties / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040North Dakota / 672,591 / 756,927 / 824,344 / 884,874 / 931,506 / 966,375 / 991,522
Adams County / 2,343 / 2,396 / 2,390 / 2,364 / 2,317 / 2,260 / 2,199
Barnes County / 11,066 / 11,167 / 11,227 / 11,271 / 11,263 / 11,219 / 11,149
Benson County / 6,660 / 6,859 / 7,185 / 7,577 / 8,075 / 8,570 / 9,040
Billings County / 783 / 931 / 1,034 / 1,116 / 1,179 / 1,222 / 1,252
Bottineau County / 6,429 / 6,699 / 6,904 / 7,085 / 7,200 / 7,241 / 7,236
Bowman County / 3,151 / 3,268 / 3,437 / 3,614 / 3,750 / 3,895 / 3,974
Burke County / 1,968 / 2,312 / 2,610 / 2,888 / 3,098 / 3,255 / 3,374
Burleigh County / 81,308 / 92,903 / 100,986 / 107,205 / 110,932 / 112,983 / 113,937
Cass County / 149,778 / 171,588 / 188,810 / 203,784 / 214,719 / 222,826 / 228,895
Cavalier County / 3,993 / 3,822 / 3,720 / 3,672 / 3,643 / 3,626 / 3,620
Dickey County / 5,289 / 5,119 / 5,036 / 5,010 / 5,031 / 5,059 / 5,095
Divide County / 2,071 / 2,529 / 2,866 / 3,174 / 3,414 / 3,588 / 3,720
Dunn County / 3,536 / 4,619 / 5,437 / 6,147 / 6,654 / 7,006 / 7,249
Eddy County / 2,385 / 2,374 / 2,379 / 2,414 / 2,455 / 2,484 / 2,503
Emmons County / 3,550 / 3,391 / 3,299 / 3,259 / 3,232 / 3,209 / 3,190
Foster County / 3,343 / 3,370 / 3,384 / 3,409 / 3,434 / 3,446 / 3,438
Golden Valley County / 1,680 / 1,863 / 2,010 / 2,155 / 2,270 / 2,353 / 2,411
Grand Forks County / 66,861 / 71,328 / 76,955 / 82,966 / 89,081 / 94,535 / 98,121
Grant County / 2,394 / 2,349 / 2,299 / 2,258 / 2,207 / 2,150 / 2,089
Griggs County / 2,420 / 2,295 / 2,196 / 2,114 / 2,039 / 1,965 / 1,897
Hettinger County / 2,477 / 2,706 / 2,873 / 3,034 / 3,178 / 3,294 / 3,396
Kidder County / 2,435 / 2,422 / 2,402 / 2,378 / 2,355 / 2,330 / 2,302
LaMoure County / 4,139 / 4,153 / 4,108 / 4,061 / 4,002 / 3,937 / 3,869
Logan County / 1,990 / 1,932 / 1,927 / 1,972 / 2,033 / 2,102 / 2,177
McHenry County / 5,395 / 6,141 / 6,675 / 7,130 / 7,461 / 7,677 / 7,817
McIntosh County / 2,809 / 2,804 / 2,775 / 2,760 / 2,751 / 2,749 / 2,754
McKenzie County / 6,360 / 12,193 / 16,568 / 20,480 / 23,492 / 25,691 / 27,361
McLean County / 8,962 / 9,737 / 10,332 / 10,870 / 11,275 / 11,519 / 11,673
Mercer County / 8,424 / 8,819 / 9,059 / 9,215 / 9,283 / 9,271 / 9,206
Morton County / 27,471 / 30,418 / 32,712 / 34,670 / 36,006 / 36,877 / 37,418
Mountrail County / 7,673 / 10,314 / 12,364 / 14,191 / 15,587 / 16,607 / 17,367
Nelson County / 3,126 / 3,028 / 2,947 / 2,881 / 2,828 / 2,773 / 2,718
Oliver County / 1,846 / 1,850 / 1,875 / 1,918 / 1,973 / 1,999 / 2,022
Pembina County / 7,413 / 7,052 / 6,758 / 6,494 / 6,267 / 6,062 / 5,866
Pierce County / 4,357 / 4,415 / 4,475 / 4,555 / 4,641 / 4,704 / 4,752
Ramsey County / 11,451 / 11,587 / 11,734 / 11,877 / 12,007 / 12,097 / 12,150
Ransom County / 5,457 / 5,445 / 5,410 / 5,403 / 5,408 / 5,407 / 5,399
Renville County / 2,470 / 2,613 / 2,715 / 2,817 / 2,911 / 2,983 / 3,035
Richland County / 16,321 / 16,478 / 16,723 / 17,058 / 17,406 / 17,709 / 17,968
Rolette County / 13,937 / 14,765 / 15,628 / 16,521 / 17,556 / 18,527 / 19,415
Sargent County / 3,829 / 3,961 / 4,084 / 4,212 / 4,288 / 4,322 / 4,334
North Dakota Counties (Continued) / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
Sheridan County / 1,321 / 1,330 / 1,336 / 1,331 / 1,316 / 1,300 / 1,284
Sioux County / 4,153 / 4,478 / 4,834 / 5,228 / 5,682 / 6,124 / 6,550
Slope County / 727 / 774 / 807 / 830 / 847 / 857 / 862
Stark County / 24,199 / 31,919 / 37,462 / 42,117 / 45,329 / 47,537 / 49,063
Steele County / 1,975 / 1,948 / 1,924 / 1,905 / 1,882 / 1,856 / 1,829
Stutsman County / 21,100 / 21,139 / 21,207 / 21,314 / 21,379 / 21,352 / 21,232
Towner County / 2,246 / 2,324 / 2,398 / 2,474 / 2,527 / 2,563 / 2,588
Traill County / 8,121 / 8,065 / 8,031 / 8,039 / 8,064 / 8,074 / 8,073
Walsh County / 11,119 / 10,925 / 10,803 / 10,755 / 10,749 / 10,756 / 10,769
Ward County / 61,675 / 71,243 / 79,053 / 86,157 / 91,644 / 96,037 / 99,607
Wells County / 4,207 / 4,187 / 4,143 / 4,120 / 4,109 / 4,087 / 4,053
Williams County / 22,398 / 34,583 / 44,039 / 52,628 / 59,276 / 64,302 / 68,221
Composition of the State’s Population by Age Group and Sex by Year (Expected Migration Scenario)
MalesAge Group / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
0-4 / 22,821 / 26,769 / 31,162 / 34,485 / 36,105 / 36,022 / 35,978
5-9 / 20,520 / 25,912 / 28,472 / 32,361 / 35,060 / 36,343 / 36,079
10-14 / 20,361 / 22,448 / 26,987 / 29,232 / 32,730 / 35,217 / 36,385
15-19 / 24,626 / 25,686 / 25,805 / 29,370 / 30,539 / 33,448 / 35,317
20-24 / 31,530 / 39,919 / 35,089 / 34,253 / 35,252 / 35,262 / 33,767
25-29 / 26,451 / 32,057 / 39,230 / 33,695 / 32,495 / 32,794 / 35,054
30-34 / 21,601 / 28,997 / 32,920 / 39,115 / 33,487 / 31,707 / 32,649
35-39 / 19,209 / 23,751 / 30,065 / 33,584 / 39,266 / 33,431 / 31,529
40-44 / 19,617 / 20,705 / 24,519 / 30,478 / 33,599 / 39,027 / 33,147
45-49 / 23,461 / 20,125 / 20,863 / 24,477 / 30,168 / 33,146 / 38,438
50-54 / 25,306 / 25,074 / 20,879 / 21,238 / 24,315 / 29,623 / 32,397
55-59 / 23,634 / 25,599 / 24,814 / 20,582 / 20,687 / 23,519 / 28,560
60-64 / 18,300 / 22,704 / 24,433 / 23,636 / 19,560 / 19,624 / 22,287
65-69 / 12,902 / 16,574 / 20,760 / 22,430 / 21,781 / 18,058 / 18,142
70-74 / 9,635 / 11,242 / 14,637 / 18,392 / 19,917 / 19,361 / 16,060
75-79 / 8,125 / 8,067 / 9,376 / 12,202 / 15,329 / 16,598 / 16,133
80-84 / 6,314 / 6,027 / 6,004 / 6,973 / 9,067 / 11,388 / 12,329
85+ / 5,451 / 6,178 / 6,060 / 5,942 / 6,419 / 7,805 / 9,692
Total Males / 339,864 / 387,834 / 422,076 / 452,447 / 475,777 / 492,371 / 503,942
Expected North Dakota Population Pyramid 2020
Age Group / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
0-4 / 21,774 / 25,569 / 29,686 / 32,860 / 34,399 / 34,318 / 34,275
5-9 / 19,556 / 24,655 / 27,706 / 31,240 / 33,618 / 34,727 / 34,414
10-14 / 19,429 / 21,501 / 26,176 / 28,814 / 31,783 / 33,855 / 34,799
15-19 / 22,848 / 24,158 / 25,201 / 29,026 / 30,369 / 32,635 / 34,028
20-24 / 27,426 / 34,527 / 32,872 / 32,960 / 34,164 / 35,263 / 33,088
25-29 / 23,145 / 25,552 / 32,689 / 30,801 / 30,884 / 31,554 / 35,095
30-34 / 19,288 / 25,507 / 27,689 / 33,515 / 30,866 / 30,288 / 31,561
35-39 / 17,856 / 20,559 / 26,463 / 28,249 / 33,759 / 30,909 / 30,220
40-44 / 18,580 / 18,902 / 21,400 / 27,007 / 28,426 / 33,709 / 30,773
45-49 / 22,919 / 19,079 / 19,213 / 21,552 / 26,922 / 28,228 / 33,405
50-54 / 24,971 / 23,992 / 19,905 / 19,736 / 21,628 / 26,693 / 27,859
55-59 / 22,312 / 25,097 / 23,995 / 19,855 / 19,495 / 21,240 / 26,136
60-64 / 17,573 / 21,244 / 23,988 / 23,005 / 19,111 / 18,824 / 20,547
65-69 / 13,126 / 16,294 / 19,874 / 22,578 / 21,768 / 18,130 / 17,894
70-74 / 11,210 / 11,783 / 14,799 / 18,183 / 20,782 / 20,087 / 16,752
75-79 / 10,243 / 9,903 / 10,432 / 13,078 / 16,043 / 18,326 / 17,708
80-84 / 9,234 / 8,616 / 8,256 / 8,621 / 10,672 / 13,023 / 14,844
85+ / 11,237 / 12,155 / 11,923 / 11,348 / 11,039 / 12,195 / 14,181
Total Females / 332,727 / 369,093 / 402,268 / 432,427 / 455,729 / 474,004 / 487,579
Expected North Dakota Population Pyramid 2030
Age Group / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
0-4 / 44,595 / 52,338 / 60,848 / 67,345 / 70,505 / 70,340 / 70,253
5-9 / 40,076 / 50,566 / 56,178 / 63,601 / 68,678 / 71,070 / 70,494
10-14 / 39,790 / 43,949 / 53,163 / 58,047 / 64,513 / 69,072 / 71,184
15-19 / 47,474 / 49,843 / 51,006 / 58,396 / 60,908 / 66,083 / 69,345
20-24 / 58,956 / 74,446 / 67,961 / 67,213 / 69,415 / 70,525 / 66,855
25-29 / 49,596 / 57,609 / 71,919 / 64,496 / 63,379 / 64,348 / 70,149
30-34 / 40,889 / 54,504 / 60,609 / 72,630 / 64,353 / 61,994 / 64,210
35-39 / 37,065 / 44,310 / 56,529 / 61,833 / 73,025 / 64,340 / 61,749
40-44 / 38,197 / 39,607 / 45,918 / 57,485 / 62,025 / 72,736 / 63,920
45-49 / 46,380 / 39,204 / 40,076 / 46,029 / 57,090 / 61,374 / 71,843
50-54 / 50,277 / 49,066 / 40,784 / 40,974 / 45,944 / 56,316 / 60,256
55-59 / 45,946 / 50,696 / 48,809 / 40,437 / 40,182 / 44,760 / 54,696
60-64 / 35,873 / 43,949 / 48,421 / 46,641 / 38,671 / 38,448 / 42,834
65-69 / 26,028 / 32,868 / 40,634 / 45,008 / 43,548 / 36,188 / 36,036
70-74 / 20,845 / 23,026 / 29,435 / 36,575 / 40,699 / 39,447 / 32,811
75-79 / 18,368 / 17,970 / 19,808 / 25,280 / 31,372 / 34,923 / 33,841
80-84 / 15,548 / 14,642 / 14,260 / 15,594 / 19,740 / 24,411 / 27,173
85+ / 16,688 / 18,333 / 17,983 / 17,290 / 17,458 / 20,001 / 23,873
Total Both Sexes / 672,591 / 756,927 / 824,344 / 884,874 / 931,506 / 966,375 / 991,522
Expected Migration Scenario North Dakota Population Pyramid 2040
LOW MIGRATION SCENARIO
This scenario assumes that net migration will be approximately 50,000 additional residents between 2015 and 2040.
Summary of Projections (Low Migration Scenario):
2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040North Dakota / 672,591 / 756,927 / 800,124 / 844,583 / 878,865 / 904,990 / 923,372
East and West Region of the State (Combined) / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
East Four Regions / 371,035 / 397,713 / 414,885 / 433,591 / 448,760 / 461,005 / 469,414
West Four Regions / 301,556 / 359,215 / 385,239 / 410,993 / 430,105 / 443,985 / 453,958
North Dakota’s Economic Planning Regions / 2010 / 2015 / 2020 / 2025 / 2030 / 2035 / 2040
Region 1 (Williston) / 30,829 / 49,306 / 57,400 / 65,837 / 72,535 / 77,676 / 81,708
Region 2 (Minot) / 89,967 / 103,736 / 111,041 / 118,213 / 123,724 / 128,043 / 131,418
Region 3 (Devils Lake) / 40,672 / 41,731 / 43,124 / 44,656 / 46,434 / 48,071 / 49,554
Region 4 (Grand Forks) / 88,519 / 92,333 / 96,563 / 101,699 / 106,617 / 110,999 / 113,553
Region 5 (Fargo) / 185,481 / 207,484 / 219,456 / 231,597 / 240,163 / 246,591 / 251,283
Region 6 (Jamestown) / 56,363 / 56,165 / 55,742 / 55,638 / 55,545 / 55,343 / 55,024
Region 7 (Bismarck) / 141,864 / 157,696 / 164,500 / 170,811 / 174,981 / 177,435 / 178,678
Region 8 (Dickinson) / 38,896 / 48,476 / 52,297 / 56,132 / 58,865 / 60,831 / 62,154
Summary of Projections (Low Migration Scenario)