Business Decisions with Data

Woods

ECO 6415 - 792

BUSINESS DECISIONS WITH DATA

Term:Spring 2007

3:00-4:15P.M. MW

Course Number

& Location:ECO 6415– 761 [042- 1105]

Course Title:Business Decisions with Data

Course DescriptionPrerequisites: ECO 5115 or equivalent.

and Prerequisites:Study of the quantitative methods that are appropriate for use in the

context of business decisions. This involves several critical introductory methodological issues that are frequently overlooked by analysts: (i) the role of the ‘Scientific Method’ in all decision-making situations, especially the business ‘sciences’; (ii) the manner by which assumptions about degrees of certainty affect statistical models and estimations of the future; (iii) level(s) of measurability of the data being collected and interpreted and the patina of scientific (unbiased) analysis; and (iv) how the nature of the data determines the statistical techniques that should be used.

Instructor:L.A. Woods

Office Hours:Before classes and by appointment.

Phone:[904] 620-2641

E-mail:

Required Texts:Douglas Downing and Jeffrey Clark. 2003. Business Statistics, 4th Ed.

Hauppauge, N.Y.: Barron’s Educational Series.

Outside Readings:In addition to the assigned reading materials in the text, each student is expected to read a total of ten (10) articles in scholarly journals over the term. Summaries, outlines, or abstracts of the articles (one per week) are to be submitted to the instructor on a weekly basis beginning the week of January 22nd. No more than five of the articles listed below may be used for this purpose. Articles should be selected on the basis of: (i) student interests; (ii) relevance to materials discussed in the texts; or (iii) relevance to ideas developed in class. Several examples of the third category may be found on Michael Crichton’s official website:

( under ‘Other Projects’, ‘Speeches’. The following are of particular interest in regards to the Scientific Method:

“Aliens Cause Global Warming,” Caltech Michelin Lecture

(July 17, 2003)

“Why Speculate?” A Speech to the International Leadership

Forum (April 26, 2002)

Remarks to the Commonwealth Club (September 15, 2003)

A Speech to the Joint Session AEI-Brookings Institution,

(January 25, 2004) and

“Ritual Abuse, Hot Air, and Missed Opportunities: Science

And the Media” American Association for the

Advancement of Science (January 25, 1999).

Additionally, you may want to consider papers available off the internet websites of the Dallas Federal Reserve. ( or from the Mises Institute ( See: Dallas Fed -- Economic Insights. (

AdditionalEach student is expected to be well informed on current economic issues,

Requirements:by reading the Investor’s Business Daily (especially, the Monday issues

Kudlow and Cramer on CNBC, orNightly Business Report (PBS). Students are expected to explore various ‘secondary’ data sites, in order to become familiar with the sources and nature of data resources that are available, e.g., U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau ofEconomic Analysis, (BEA), The data available at the sites include:

BLSBEA

Inflation and ConsumerNational Data

SpendingRegional Data

ProductivityInternational Data

Labor Force Charac-Industry Data

teristicsPapers and Working

Papers

Familiarity with these data resource sites enable students to enhance their human capital, as well as, providing them with resources for making ‘good’ business decisions and evaluating data reporting (need to adjust data reported in the media, e.g., “gas prices at an all-time high”, which reflects either outright ignorance or political malice).

Course Outline and

Schedule:

Jan. 8Introduction to the course

Jan.10 -The role of the ‘Scientific Method’

17The nature of the measurement scales of data (‘nominal’, ‘ordinal’,

‘interval’ and ‘ratio’ scales)

Appropriate statistical techniques (nonparametric and parametric methods)

Downing & Clark, Chapter 1, “Why Statistics?” 1-6.

Review of basic concepts, Downing & Clark, “Measures of CentralTendency and Dispersion,” 9-21. [Keeping in mind the

‘measurement scales’ and the appropriate techniques].

Downing & Clark, Chapter 14, “The Chi-Square Test,” 297-307.

Jan. 15Martin Luther King Day – University Holiday

Jan. 24 First of the article reviews is due. One is due each week for the next 10

weeks.

Jan. 24- Review of probabilities and hypothesis testing, Downing & Clark, Chapter

Feb. 83, “Introduction to Probability and Hypothesis Testing,” 47-60.

Downing & Clark, Chapter 4, “Calculating Probabilities,” 65-96.

Downing & Clark, Chapter 18, “Nonparametric Methods,”

‘Kruskal-Wallis H Test’ and “Analysis of Variance,” especially:

324-327.

Feb. 12Quiz # 1[In-class portion – definitional; Take-home – problems]

Feb. 14-Review characteristics of ‘normal’ distributions, Downing & Clark,

March 14Chapter 8, “Normal Distribution and Related Distributions, 163-

195. [Emphasis on: pp. 174-195]

Downing & Clark, Chapter 15, “Analysis of Variance,” 315-336.

Correlation, both nonparametric and parametric, Downing &

Clark,

March 16Quiz # 2 [In-class portion – definitional; Take-home – problems]

March 19 -SPRING BREAK

March 24

March 26 -Simple regression, Downing & Clark, Chapter 16, “Simple Regression,”

April27341-379. Chapter 9, “Distributions with two Random Variables,” 201-221;

and 356-358.

Downing & Clark, Chapter 17, “Multiple Regression,” 383-400.

Downing & Clark, Chapter19, “Economic Data and Business

Forecasting,” 419-449.

Downing & Clark, Chapter 20, “Decision Theory,” 451-461.

April 27Classes end.

April 30Quiz # 3 [In-class portion – definitional; Take-home – problems]

Grading: Three quizzes will comprise 86% of the final grade. Each quiz is weighted equally. The weekly outside reading summaries will comprise the

remaining 14% of the final grade. The grading scale is as follows:

93.0 - 100.0% = A

86.0 - 92.9% = B

76.0 - 85.9% = C

69.0 - 75.9% = D

Less than 69.0 = F.

Library Scholarly journals may be located in the periodical section of the library

Assignments:(Third level).

Written The individual article summaries will comprise one of the written

Communicationcommunications requirements in this course.

Requirements:

OralClass participation constitutes the demonstration of oral

Communicationcommunication skills.

Requirements:

ComputerUse of the internet for data searches and data manipulation via

Applications: statistical software or a spreadsheet should be used for preparing

the take-home portions of quizzes.

International Statistics is a techniques course and there are few opportunities to

Coverage:incorporate international coverage. Suggested outside class sources may

be used to provide opportunities for such coverage.

EnvironmentalStatistics is a techniques course and there are few opportunities to

IssuesCovered:address environmental concerns, real or imagined.

Ethical IssuesEthical issue related to illegal activity in the economy will be

Covered:discussed where appropriate. A distinction will be drawn between legal

but tough corporate policies and illegal activities, particularly relationship

to employment, insider trading and environmental issues.

Academic Integrity:Each student is expectedto do his/her own work on assigned activities and on quizzes. An understanding of what constitutes plagiarism and

abuse of copyright laws is expected of each student.