ACFI Monitoring Report – March2017

Background

  • In 2013-14 and 2014-15 annual real growth of about 3.4% and 7.4% in the daily average ACFI were higher than projections of 3.2% and 5.6%, respectively.
  • In 2015-16, the annual real growth was 5.2%. This was higher than the initial projection of 3.2%.
  • In 2016-17, annual real (or non indexed) growth was projected at about 1.7%. Effective indexation was 1.3% implying a nominal growth of 3.0%.These figures include changes to ACFI beginning 1 July 2016 and 1 January 2017.

Summary of March2017Data

Average daily ACFI subsidyfor the period ofMarch2017(1 July 2016 to 31March2017) was $172.43comparedto a budget of $172.21.

If real growth for the year continues at the rate observed year-to-date, annual growth will be 2.1%.This is higher than the 2016 Budget projection of 1.7% (which takes account of 1 January 2017 changes).

Actual cumulative growth for the financial year to end of March2017 compared to the same period in 2015-16 was 2.8% (higher thanprojected cumulative growth of 2.7%).

  • By domain, the growth was 2.4% for ADL, 1.9% for BEH and 4.1% for CHC
  • Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory had growth higher than 2.7%

Figure 1.Real Growth in ACFI[1]Figure 2. Nominal Growth in ACFI

Overall changes in ACFI

The following charts show overall trends in ACFI. Claims peaked sharply before 1 July 2016 and flattened in the subsequent months.Claiming amounts started to rise in November and has peaked in December prior to the 1 January 2017 ACFI changes taking effect.There was a slight decline following the 1 January changes.

Figure 3. Daily Average $/Day Trend by Month – 2016/17 Dollars

Table 1: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by State

State / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Projected National / $165.54 / $172.21 / 4.0% / 2.7%
Actual National / $165.54 / $172.43 / 4.2% / 2.8%
NSW / $162.99 / $169.41 / 3.9% / 2.6%
VIC / $169.09 / $177.60 / 5.0% / 3.7%
QLD / $163.14 / $169.62 / 4.0% / 2.6%
WA / $170.76 / $177.31 / 3.8% / 2.5%
SA / $166.90 / $172.10 / 3.1% / 1.8%
TAS / $158.83 / $168.01 / 5.8% / 4.4%
ACT / $164.33 / $165.30 / 0.6% / -0.7%
NT / $162.77 / $174.24 / 7.0% / 5.7%

*The difference between the year to date projected national figure presented in the table and the annual projection of 1.7% relates to the month of the report. (ie this shows July 2016 to March2017relative to July 2015 to March2016whereas the annual projection shows July 2016 until June 2017.)

Tale 2: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Remoteness

Remoteness / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Major Cities of Australia / $169.25 / $175.97 / 4.0% / 2.6%
Inner Regional Australia / $158.06 / $165.38 / 4.6% / 3.3%
Outer Regional Australia / $156.28 / $163.04 / 4.3% / 3.0%
Remote Australia / $130.43 / $144.97 / 11.2% / 9.7%
Very Remote Australia / $143.08 / $150.97 / 5.5% / 4.2%

Table 3: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Organization Type

Organization Type / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
Not-For-Profit / $158.80 / $166.01 / 4.5% / 3.2%
For-Profit / $178.36 / $184.28 / 3.3% / 2.0%
Government / $146.23 / $152.80 / 4.5% / 3.2%

Table 4: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by Provider Size

Provider Size* / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
0-41 / $137.21 / $145.36 / 5.9% / 4.6%
41-74 / $154.24 / $161.18 / 4.5% / 3.2%
74-131 / $160.43 / $168.28 / 4.9% / 3.5%
131-499 / $163.91 / $171.36 / 4.6% / 3.2%
500-999 / $169.50 / $176.24 / 4.0% / 2.6%
1000+ / $172.28 / $177.67 / 3.1% / 1.8%

*Based on full time equivalent residents per year for 2015-16. Only includes providers active during July 2015.

Table 5: Cumulative Daily Average ACFI Subsidies and Growth Rates by ACFI Category

Average ACFI Category Subsidy / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Nominal Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year / Real Growth Over Same Period in Previous Year
ADL / $87.51 / $90.97 / 3.9% / 2.4%
BEH / $26.78 / $27.70 / 3.4% / 1.9%
CHC / $51.25 / $53.77 / 4.9% / 4.1%

Table 6: Cumulative proportion of total days by ACFI Level and ACFI Category

ADL / BEH / CHC
ACFI Level / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Change ADL / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Change BEH / Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017 / Change CHC
H / 53.4% / 56.5% / 3.1% / 62.4% / 64.1% / 1.8% / 55.6% / 59.3% / 3.7%
M / 30.2% / 29.7% / -0.5% / 20.7% / 20.5% / -0.2% / 24.9% / 25.2% / 0.3%
L / 15.6% / 13.2% / -2.4% / 11.9% / 11.0% / -0.9% / 15.9% / 12.8% / -3.1%
N / 0.8% / 0.6% / -0.2% / 5.0% / 4.3% / -0.6% / 3.6% / 2.7% / -0.9%

Table 7: Cumulative proportion of total days by ADL Scores and ADL Question

Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017
ADL Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Nutrition / 4.5% / 18.4% / 59.1% / 18.0% / 3.7% / 16.2% / 63.0% / 17.1%
Mobility / 2.7% / 4.9% / 36.7% / 55.7% / 2.0% / 3.7% / 35.6% / 58.7%
Personal Hygiene / 0.6% / 6.7% / 11.0% / 81.7% / 0.4% / 6.1% / 9.9% / 83.6%
Toileting / 5.1% / 13.3% / 13.8% / 67.8% / 3.8% / 11.9% / 13.7% / 70.5%
Continence / 15.9% / 3.1% / 5.0% / 76.0% / 14.1% / 2.6% / 4.6% / 78.7%

Table 8: Cumulative proportion of total days by BEH Scores and BEH Question

Jul 2015 To Mar 2016 / Jul 2016 To Mar 2017
BEH Question / A / B / C / D / A / B / C / D
Cognitive Skills / 10.3% / 28.2% / 33.0% / 28.5% / 9.2% / 28.0% / 34.4% / 28.4%
Wandering / 77.3% / 6.6% / 4.5% / 11.6% / 79.9% / 5.9% / 4.1% / 10.1%
Verbal / 12.9% / 12.3% / 17.9% / 56.9% / 11.9% / 11.6% / 18.3% / 58.2%
Physical / 25.7% / 14.4% / 16.6% / 43.2% / 25.6% / 14.6% / 17.5% / 42.3%
Depression / 38.4% / 30.1% / 16.2% / 15.3% / 36.5% / 30.3% / 16.9% / 16.3%

Table 9: Distribution of claim days for the CHC

July 2015 to March 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.6% / 0.2% / 0.9% / 0.2%
B / 2.8% / 5.3% / 7.2% / 8.9%
C / 4.9% / 4.4% / 8.2% / 12.3%
D / 1.8% / 7.9% / 25.6% / 8.8%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 3.6%
Low / 16.4%
Med / 24.3%
High / 55.6%

Table 9 (continued): Distribution of claim days for the CHC

July 2016 to March 20171Appraised before 1 July 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.4% / 0.1% / 0.7% / 0.1%
B / 1.4% / 3.0% / 4.9% / 7.2%
C / 2.6% / 2.2% / 5.1% / 9.5%
D / 0.9% / 4.6% / 19.7% / 6.5%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 2.8%
Low / 12.7%
Med / 22.3%
High / 62.2%

Appraised between 1 July 2016 and 31 December 2016

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A / 0.1% / 0.0% / 0.2% / 0.1%
B / 0.6% / 1.3% / 2.4% / 4.0%
C / 0.9% / 1.0% / 2.6% / 5.0%
D / 0.3% / 1.8% / 3.2% / 4.7%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 2.7%
Low / 13.1%
Med / 35.9%
High / 48.3%

Appraised on or after 1 January 2017

Q12
Q11 / A / B / C / D
A - No Assistance / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0%
B - Assistance / 0.3% / 0.4% / 0.8% / 0.9%
C - Injections / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.0% / 0.1%
Rating / Proportion
Nil / 0.8%
Low / 25.5%
Med / 34.9%
High / 38.8%
  1. Since 1 July 2016, there have been three ACFI regimes that a resident may have been appraised under; this depends on the date the resident was last appraised. Given this, the data for 2016-17 is split into three groups.

Table 10: Actual Average ACFI per day – Monthly and Cumulative

ACFI / Jul 16 / Aug 16 / Sep 16 / Oct 16 / Nov 16 / Dec 16
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.53 / $172.54 / $172.46 / $172.64 / $173.07
Cumulative ACFI / $172.51 / $172.52 / $172.53 / $172.48 / $172.50 / $172.59
ACFI / Jan 16 / Feb 16 / Mar 16 / Apr 16 / May 16 / Jun 16
Monthly ACFI / $172.51 / $172.20 / $172.02
Cumulative ACFI / $172.56 / $172.51 / $172.43

Figure 4.ACFI Category - Change in Proportion of Total Care Days Year to Date – Year on Year*

*Compares change in proportion of care days for 1 July to31Marchbetween 2015/16 and 2016/17

*All $ values are based on ACFI Question Responses,

[1]2015/16 projection was revised up to 5.2% in May 2016 Budget

2016/17 actual annual estimates is based on both 2015 MYEFO and 2016 Budget measures