MCanxixun* Information
MCANXIXUN VIEW
Vol.42，2011
*Mcanxixun View
*Expert Analysis
*Authority Opinion
*Focus to Hotspot
*World Economy Trend
*Global Policy Tendency
MCanxixun Information and News Service
Contents
Economy（经济动态） 3
Developed World Facing 'Mission Impossible': Economist 3
经济学家称：发达国家面临‘棘手的任务’ 3
Service Sector Leads Boost in Job Creation; Layoffs Fall 4
美国11月就业数据带来意外惊喜；裁员人数下降 5
Hey big spenders 6
2012年新兴经济体将成最大的买家 7
IMF Says It’s Likely to Cut Global Growth Forecasts Amid Financial Turmoil 7
金融危机愈演愈烈，IMF或降低全球经济增长预测 8
Goldman Joins HSBC Bucking China Economist Majority With ’12 Rate-Cut Call 9
高盛与汇丰预计：中国明年会降息 10
Russia’s November Inflation Rate Probably Dropped to Lowest in 14 Months 11
俄罗斯11月通胀率或降至十四个月来的最低点 12
Lehman Redux? World Economy Needs Euro Fix 13
雷曼兄弟时代又来了？世界经济需要欧元区来修复 14
Live Free Or Die In China's Tax Haven 16
中国预算中的灰色地带 16
Australia’s Economy Expands More Than Forecast on Consumers, Mining Growth 17
澳洲第三季度扩张好于预期 18
Economic Troubles in Europe and U.S. Start to Affect Asia 19
欧美两国经济风暴侵袭亚洲 21
Policy（政策解析） 22
Trade agreements and 21st century trade: A new Policy Insight 22
贸易协定及21世纪贸易：新政策展望 23
China’s economic growth ‘miracle’ and its outlook by 2020 24
中国经济增长的‘奇迹’及2020展望 26
Autumn statement: George Osborne's cutting fantasy is over 28
秋季声明：奥斯本梦寐以求的消减赤字结束了 29
Its Growth Slowing, Britain Extends Austerity Measures 30
经济增长缓慢，英政府延长紧缩措施 32
America is not heading down Japan’s route 33
美国不会重蹈日本覆辙 34
Guest post: how to boost the RMB, the IMF, Chinese bank reform – and the euro 34
如果中国援助欧元区 36
The year of self-induced stagnation 37
2012，自身诱导性停滞的一年 38
Ten years on, where are the Brics? 40
书评：奥尼尔新著《增长地图》 41
China's Superior Economic Model 42
中国有计划经济 美国也应该有 43
About China（聚焦中国） 45
Latin America fears a Chinese slowdown not a European crash 45
拉美更关心中国经济走向 46
Market-economy status for China is not automatic 47
中国市场经济地位并非自动获取 49
China Shifts Economic Focus 50
中国经济政策重心转向促增长 52
China Rejects U.S. Solar Imports Ruling 53
中国拒绝接受美国太阳能进口裁决 55
Business（商业情报） 56
Yahoo Battles Brain Drain 56
雅虎采取措施应对人才流失难题 57
Citigroup to Lay Off 4,500 Workers 58
花旗集团计划裁减4500员工 59
Management（管理） 60
Rejected: Foreign MBA applicants face major hurdles 60
中印MBA申请者面临的主要困难---拒收 62
The IT Boss Who Shuns Email 63
不发电子邮件的IT公司老板 64
Steve Jobs Tops List of 2011's Most Buzzed About CEOs 66
2011最佳CEO已出炉，乔布斯位居榜首 67
How To Sell Almost Anything 67
如何在销售中变被动为主动：聆听客户 69
Industries（热门行业） 70
Asian Taste For Watches Keeps Swiss Exports Ticking 70
中国消费者钟表需求撑起瑞士出口业 71
Factories Stall Worldwide as US Jobless Claims Rise 72
全球制造业收缩，美国则一枝独秀 73
Upmarket response to low-cost challenge 75
中国制造业向高端转型 76
Economy（经济动态）
Developed World Facing 'Mission Impossible': Economist
The West is facing a "mission impossible" as it attempts to tackle high unemployment, inflationary pressures and exchange rate tensions, an economist told CNBC.
"The developed world is facing a policy paradox. It needs inflation to rid itself of debt but deflation to encourage firms to boost production and employment," Karen Ward, senior global economist at HSBC told CNBC Tuesday.
The only way to achieve the best of both worlds would be through a decrease in real exchange rates in the developed economies, she said.
"If we don't do this exchange rate adjustment we are looking at a very long period of stagnant growth, high unemployment and ongoing uncertainty," Ward warned.
The policy of monetary stimulus – quantitative easing – used by both the US and the UK central banks in recent months has the "hidden purpose" of instigating exchange rate decline to the detriment of emerging economies, Ward told CNBC.
"In the developed world we might be using quantitative easing to bring down the currencies as we've seen for the last two years; in the emerging world they don't want to be on the receiving end of that," Ward added.
There have been rising tensions between the US and China with growing momentum in the US for a trade bill against China.
Ward warned that this was unsustainable in the long term and would hamper efforts to restart growth in the global economy.
"This is unsustainable. We keep running into these problems in the global economy and global growth will not recover until we have this rebalancing of the global economy and the exchange rate adjustment is desperately required," Ward said.
She added that the ideal solution would be to have developed economies exercising some patience and the emerging economies seeing their exchange rates appreciate.
However, the political machine could derail this scenario.
Ward said she was worried that impatient politicians, particularly in the US where there is an election next year, will force the issue.
"It would be much better if we were to remain amicable in the global system," she said.
经济学家称：发达国家面临‘棘手的任务’
一名经济学家告诉CNBC说：“由于西方世界企图解决高失业率、通胀压力和紧张的汇率局势，因此它们正面临着棘手的任务”。
汇丰银行（HSBC）高级全球经济学家Karen Ward在周二（11月29日）告诉CNBC说：“发达世界正面临着政策悖论。它需要用通胀摆脱自身的债务，而不是用通过紧缩来鼓励企业，从而刺激生产和就业”。
她说，实现两全其美的唯一方法将是：降低发达国家的实际汇率。
Ward警告称：“如果我们没有调整汇率，那么我们将着眼于相当长一段时间的停滞增长、高失业率以及进行中的不确定性”。
Ward告诉CNBC说：“美国和英国央行最近几个月使用的货币刺激政策---量化宽松，有着不可告人的目的，它唆使汇率降至不利于新兴经济的水平”。
Ward补充说：“在发达世界里，我们可能会使用量化宽松政策来降低货币流通，就像我们在上两年看到的那样；在新兴国家中，它们不想成为被攻击的目标”。
由于美国对中国的贸易法案不断增长的势头，因此中美之间的关系也变得越来越紧张。
Ward警告称：从长远来看，这是不可持续的，并将阻止全球经济重新增长而作出的努力。
Ward说：“这是不可持续的。我们陷入了全球经济出现的问题中，并且直到我们让全球经济增长和调整汇率的重新平衡成为迫切需求时，全球经济才会复苏”。
她补充说：这一理想的方案需要发达国家拿出一定的耐心，并且新兴经济体将会看见它们的汇率升值。
然而，政治机构可能会破坏这种情况。
Ward表示：她担心不耐烦的政治家将迫使这一问题，尤其是明年将要换届选举的美国。
她说：“如果我们在全球系统中保持和睦，那么情况会好得多”。
Service Sector Leads Boost in Job Creation; Layoffs Fall
The private sector created 206,000 jobs in November, far more than expected and the most in nearly a year, as service sector positions exploded and manufacturing and construction posted modest gains.
ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors reported that service providers added 178,000 positions. The goods-producing sector saw a 28,000-job rise, while manufacturing employment increased by 7,000 and construction added 16,000.
"This month's jobs figures show positive growth in all major sectors of the economy and are in line with the recent drop in the national unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims," Carlos Rodriguez, President and CEO of ADP, said in a statement. " Despite fiscal uncertainties here and abroad, owners of small- and medium-sized businesses found ways to grow and hire in November. As in previous months, service providers led the way in job creation."
The report also said the estimated gain in employment from September to October was revised up to 130,000 from the initially reported 110,000.
ADP Chairman Joel Prakken said the reports is "normally would be associated with a decline in the unemployment rate," which currently stands at 9.0 percent. In a conference call with reporters, he said he expects Friday's nonfarm payroll report to come in above expectations of 122,000 new jobs created.
"I'm expecting a number that's well above consensus on Friday, (but) maybe not as strong as this number today because this number does not include the government sector and my sense is, particularly in state and local level governments, they're still shedding employees," Prakken said.
At the same time, the number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms edged down marginally in November, though job cuts for the year have surpassed 2010's total, a report on Wednesday showed.
Employers announced 42,474 planned job cuts this month, down 0.7 percent from 42,759 in October, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.
November's job cuts were down 12.8 percent from the same time a year ago when 48,711 layoffs were announced. But with just one month left in the year, employers have announced 564,297 cuts for 2011, exceeding 2010's total of 529,973.
Cuts in the government sector accounted for 44 percent of November's layoffs, the eighth time this year the sector has led all others in monthly job cuts.
Of the 18,508 government job cuts announced this month, 13,500 were the result of civilian workforce cuts made by the United States Air Force.
"Over the past six months, we definitely have seen a shift away from the heavy government job cuts at the state and local level toward increased job cuts at the federal level," John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.
"The worst may be yet to come, as cutbacks spread from the military to every other agency in Washington."
Hiring plans fell sharply to 63,527 from 159,177 the month before. Most of November's gains were from seasonal workers being hired by UPS.
The report comes two days ahead of the key U.S. jobs report, which is forecast to show the economy added 122,000 in November.
美国11月就业数据带来意外惊喜；裁员人数下降
11月，私人部门创造了20.6万个工作岗位，远远超过了预期，同时也创下了今年的最高值，而产生这一结果的原因是服务部门的岗位激增，以及制造业和建筑业的适度增长。
ADP公司和宏观经济顾问公司报道称：服务业增加了17.8万个工作岗位。商品生产也增加了2.8万个工作岗位，同时制造业的雇佣增加了7000个，以及制造业增加了1.6万个。
ADP公司的总裁兼首席执行官Carlos Rodriguez在一项声明中表示：“本月的就业数据表明，所有主要领域都出现了积极的增长，并符合最近国家失业率的下降以及每周首次申请失业救济人数。尽管国内外的财政存在不确定性，但中小型企业的业主在11月份发现了增长和雇佣的方法。就像几个月前，在就业创造上起着带头作用的服务业提供商”。
该报告还显示：9-10月，就业机会的增加预计从最初报道的11万人上调至13万。
ADP公司的董事长Joel Prakken表示：这一报告通常是与失业率的下降有关，当前的失业率仍然保持在9.0％。在与记者的电话会议中，他说，他预计周五的非农就业报告所公布的新就业创造的结果有望高出12.2万个的预期值。
Prakken说：“我希望周五公布的数据能高于预期，但可能不会像今天（11月30日）的数据那样强劲，因为这一数据并没有包括政府部门，并且我感觉，政府部门仍在裁员，尤其是国家和地方级政府”。
周三（11月30日）公布的一份报告显示：与此同时，11月美国企业计划裁员的人数略有下降，尽管今天的就业消减已超过了2010年的总体数量。
据咨询机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的报告显示：本月雇主宣称计划消减4.2474万个工作岗位，比十月份的4.2759万低0.7％。
11月份的就业消减同比下降12.8％，据称当时的裁员人数为4.8711万人。但一个月之后，雇主就宣称2011年的裁员人数为56.4297万，超过2010年的总人数---52.9973万。
政府部门的裁员人数共占11月份总裁员人数的44％，月度裁员人数在今年第八次领先于其它部门。
本月，政府部门的裁员人数为1.8508万，其中有1.35万是由于美国空军（United States Air Force）消减平民劳动力的结果。
咨询机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的首席执行官John Challenger在一项声明中称：“在过去六个月，我们已经清楚地看到了转变，从国家政府大量消减政府部门的工作岗位，到联邦级政府对地方级增加工作的消减力度。”
“由于裁员从军队蔓延至华盛顿的其它机构，因此最糟糕的事情可能还在后头”。
招聘计划从一个月前的15.9177万人急速降至6.3527万人。11月份的增长多数来自于联合包裹速递公司（UPS）所雇用的临时工。
这一报告比关键的美国就业报告早两天，美国就业报告预计会公布：11月份，美国增加了12.2万个工作。
Hey big spenders
Emerging economies will buy over half of the world’s imports in 2012
The idea that economic power is shifting from the old rich world to emerging economies is hardly new, but it is taking a new form. For the past couple of decades, emerging economies have grabbed a rising share of world manufacturing production and exports, thanks to their lower wage costs. They already produce more than half the world’s exports. But an important new milestone will be reached in 2012, when the upstarts will import more goods than rich economies. That is a dramatic change since 2000, when they imported barely half as much as rich countries did. This rapid growth in developing countries’ buying power will boost the profits of companies in rich economies over the coming years.
The rich world’s financial crisis has hastened the shift in global economic power towards the newcomers. At the beginning of 2012, the total real GDP of the rich economies will be no higher than it was at the end of 2007. In contrast, the output of the emerging economies will have jumped by almost a quarter over the same period. Their combined output (including Asia’s newly industrialised economies, such as South Korea and Taiwan) will account for over two-fifths of world GDP at market exchange rates in the coming year, almost twice the share in 1990. If GDP is instead measured at purchasing-power parity to take account of the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries, emerging economies have already overtaken the developed world.
Rapid growth in incomes, and hence spending, has increased their appetite for foreign goods: imports into emerging markets have grown twice as fast as those into developed ones over the past decade. This partly reflects increasing trade between emerging economies themselves, such as China and Brazil, but their purchases from rich countries have also grown strongly. Almost three-fifths of American exports will head to emerging markets in 2012, nearly double the share in 1990.
Emerging economies need to import advanced machinery and equipment from rich countries in order to build new factories and improve their infrastructure. But consumer spending is also rising rapidly. In 2012 emerging markets will account for nearly half of global retail sales. Even more important, the increase in their spending in absolute dollar terms will be twice as big as the increase in the developed world. They already buy over half of all motor vehicles (up from only 20% in 2000), and account for four-fifths of mobile-phone contracts.
China will overtake America as the world’s biggest importer by 2014. Within ten to 15 years emerging markets could produce half of the revenues of several big multinational firms.
An enterprising Englishman in the 1850s famously said that if he “could add an inch of material to every Chinaman’s shirt tail, the mills of Lancashire could be kept busy for a generation.” Those mills have since turned to rust, but selling to China and the world’s other emerging markets will keep many Western firms busy for years to come.
2012年新兴经济体将成最大的买家
新兴经济体将在2012年购买世界近一半的进口
‘经济强国正从老牌发达国家转向新兴经济体’这一说法并不是什么新鲜事了，但它正在变成一种新形式。对于过去几十年来说，新兴经济体已捕获了世界工业生产和出口的大量份额，这要归功于它们较低的工资成本。这些新兴经济体还生产了世界上一半以上的出口商品。但是，在2012年将达到一个重要的、新的里程碑，到那时暴富者将进口更多的商品，超过发达经济体。这是自2000年以来的一次戏剧性的转变，当时新兴经济体进口的产品还不足发达国家进口的一半。发展中国家购买力的迅猛增长将在未来几年，刺激发达国家企业的利润。
发达国家的金融危机已促使全球经济实力转向‘新起之秀’。在2012年初，发达国家的总实际国内生产总值将不再高于2007年年底。相反，新兴经济体的产出将在同一时期跃升近四分之一。明年，它们的（包括亚洲新兴工业化经济体，如：韩国和台湾）联合输出量将占世界GDP的五分之二（按市场汇率计算），所占比例几乎是1990年的二倍。如果GDP不是以购买力同等性测量，以考虑到‘贫穷国家的物价较低’这一事实，那么新兴国家就已经赶上了发达国家。
收入的快速增长，并因此而产生的开支的增长，都增加了它们对外国货的欲望：在过去十年中，进入新兴市场的进口的增速已经是进入发达国家市场的进口增速的两倍。这就从某种程度上反映了新兴国家之间日益增加的贸易，比如中国和巴西，但是，它们从发达国家的采购也强劲增长。2012年，近五分之三的美国出口将涌入新兴市场，几乎是1990年的两倍。
新兴经济体需要从发达国家进口先进的机械和设备，目的是建设新工厂，并改善它们的基础设施。但消费开支也快速增长。2012年，新兴市场将占据全球近一半的零售销售额。更重要的是，按美元计算，它们的消费增长将使是发达国家消费增长的两倍。它们购买了近一半的汽车（2000年仅有20%），并在移动电话合同中占着五分之四的比例。
到2014年，中国将超过美国，作为世界上最大的进口国。在10-15年内，新兴市场将为几大跨国企业创造近一半的收入。
在19世纪50年代，一名有胆识的英国人曾说过这样一句名言：“如果他可以向每个中国人的衬衫下摆添加一英寸的材料，那么兰开夏郡（Lancashire）的工厂就可以不停地忙碌着一代人的时间。”从那以后，这些工厂已经倒闭，但是向中国和世界上其它新兴经济体所出售的产品将使西方国家的许多公司在未来几年处于忙碌状态。
IMF Says It’s Likely to Cut Global Growth Forecasts Amid Financial Turmoil
The International Monetary Fund will probably lower its growth forecasts next month as the European debt crisis rocks financial markets and slows output, a spokesman said.
Since the latest forecasts were released in September “there’s been a marked slowdown in economic activity,” particularly in Europe, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in Washington today. “We will likely be revising downwards the forecast” near the end of January, he said, without specifying which projections may be affected.
The IMF cut its forecast for global growth to 4 percent this year and next in September, predicting “severe” repercussions if Europe failed to contain its debt crisis. The turmoil has since worsened, with Italian and French bond yields rising and Germany failing to attract bids for 35 percent of bonds it offered for sale Nov. 23.
Rice also said the lender will meet Dec. 5 to authorize the next 2.2-billion euro ($3 billion) disbursement to Greece under a joint bailout plan with the European Union. An IMF team will go to Athens Dec. 12-16, he said.
The IMF is not in talks with Italy about any funding, Rice said. There’s no date set yet for an unprecedented mission that was agreed to last month to audit the country’s efforts to cut its debt, he said. The review will be quarterly and similar to the yearly assessment of the nation’s economy, he said.
Italian Measures
The Italian Cabinet will approve on Dec. 5 a package of debt-reducing measures and structural reforms aimed at boosting economic growth and balancing the budget in 2013, Prime Minister Mario Monti has said.
European heads of government also meet on Dec. 9 in Brussels, with Germany pushing for governance changes that would tighten enforcement of budget rules.
European finance ministers said this week they would seek a greater role for the IMF alongside their own bailout fund in their latest effort at taming the euro zone’s sovereign debt turmoil. The IMF is co-financing bailouts to Greece, Portugal and Ireland.
Asked whether the European Central Bank could lend funds to the IMF, Rice said that while it’s legally feasible for central banks to do so, no discussions are taking place on the subject.
金融危机愈演愈烈，IMF或降低全球经济增长预测
一名新闻发言人称：由于欧元区主权债务危机引发金融市场动荡，并减缓产出，因此国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）或在下个月降低其经济增长预期值。
国际货币基金组织（IMF）的新闻发言人格里·赖斯（Gerry Rice）今天（12月2日）在华盛顿告诉记者，说：“自九月份公布的最新预测以来，经济活动已明显放缓，尤其是欧洲”。他说：“我们很能在一月底下调预测”，但却没有指明会下调哪个预测。
国际货币基金组织9月份发布的2011年下半年《世界经济展望》报告预测，今明两年全球经济的增速为4.0%，并称：如果欧洲未能抑制其债务危机，那么影响将会更严重。由于意大利和法国债券收益率上升，以及德国未能获得35％债券（11月23日发售）投标，因此金融动荡已经恶化。
Rice还表示：根据与欧盟的联合救助计划，债权人将在12月5日召集会议，以批准接下来的22亿欧元（合30亿美元）的对希腊的援助贷款，,IMF团队将在12月12-16日奔赴雅典。
Rice称：IMF没有和意大利商谈任何的救助。他说，没有为IMF监督团访问意大利设定时间，其目的是审计该国家为消减债务而作出的努力。他表示：这一审查将是按季度进行的，且类似于国家经济的年度评估。
意大利采取的措施
意大利总理Mario Monti已经表示：意大利内阁将在12月5日批准一系列的债务消减措施，以及结构改革，旨在促进经济增长，并在2013年平衡预算。
欧洲领导人于12月9日在布鲁塞尔会面，同时推动统治改变的德国将加紧预算规则的执行。
欧洲财政部长们本周表示：在他们为驯服欧洲主权债务危机而作出的最新的努力（援助基金）的同时，他们还将为国际货币基金组织寻找一个作用更大的角色。IMF正在共同融资，救助希腊、葡萄牙和爱尔兰。
当问及到欧洲央行是否能够借款给IMF时，Rice说：“尽管央行这样做从法律上讲是可行的，但正在进行的讨论没有关于这一话题的”。
Goldman Joins HSBC Bucking China Economist Majority With ’12 Rate-Cut Call
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings Plc forecast that China will cut interest rates in 2012, putting the banks at odds with most of their rivals, who see elevated inflation preventing a reduction.
The People’s Bank of China reduced lenders’ reserve requirements on Nov. 30 for the first time since 2008 as Europe’s debt crisis deepened. Eleven economists of 19 in a Bloomberg News survey conducted yesterday say rates will stay unchanged through next year and another three predict increases. Goldman and HSBC are among five that see cuts.
China’s challenge in loosening monetary policy is to sustain the expansion of the world’s second-largest economy without spurring price gains, fueling bad loans or reigniting a real estate boom that has started to deflate. Inflation will remain too high for the benchmark one-year deposit rate to be lowered from the current 3.5 percent, according to Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.
“The authorities should be careful that the loosening does not go too far in order to prevent a repeat of mistakes during the 2008 global financial crisis,” said Ma Xiaoping, a Beijing- based economist with HSBC. Ma said rates may be cut after inflation falls below 3 percent in the second half of next year.
The economist said three more reserve-ratio cuts are likely in the first half of next year, along with tax breaks and fiscal stimulus, after a report yesterday indicated Chinese manufacturing contracted for the first time since March 2009.
Threat to Asia
Across Asia, policy makers are moving to preserve growth after Europe’s debt crisis prompted a Federal Reserve-led effort this week to ease borrowing costs for financial firms. In Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda yesterday ordered a fourth extra budget, a step unprecedented since postwar reconstruction, while Thailand cut interest rates this week and Indonesia did the same on Nov. 10.