HRP 258: Introduction to Probability and Statistics for Clinical Research

Spring Quarter 2010

Class Schedule: Wed. 12:00-3:00pm, CCSR 4205

Class Website:

Instructor Information:

Kristin Sainani

T211 HRPRedwoodBuilding

TA Information:

Vinnie Liu
/ Gabby Schmajuk

Class Objectives:

This course will equip students with the tools needed to understand and critically evaluate the medical literature.
Specific topics to include: 1. describing data (types of data, data visualization, descriptive statistics), 2. statistical inference (probability, probability distributions, the Central Limit Theorem, sampling theory, hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, pitfalls of hypothesis testing), and 3. specific statistical tests (ttest, ANOVA, linear correlation, linear regression, non-parametric tests, relative risks, Chi-square, logistic regression, survival analysis; how to choose the right statistical test). Emphasis is on interpretation rather than analysis.

For students interested in a more math-intensive course or who want to learn SAS (statistical analysis program), they may opt to take HRP 259 (in the fall) instead of HRP 258.

Required Textbook:

Statistical evidence in medical trial, what do the data really tell us? Stephen Simon

Grading:

Class Participation*.………………………………………………………..……..….…....20%

Journal article review sheets………………………………………………………………10%

Homework………………….…………………………………… …..…..…………….….30%

Final Exam…………………………………………………….…………..…….……....…40%

Journal article reviews:

We will be discussing a journal article at the beginning or end of each class. Everyone should fill out a “journal article review sheet” for the article (worth 1 point each). I will also pick three or four students to read the article more carefully and be the “discussion leaders” for the week. Everyone will take one turn at this, and it will be counted as part of the class participation grade.

*Your class participation grade will be based on your contribution to these class discussions (and other in-class exercises) as well as your preparation when it is your turn to be a “discussion leader.”

Homework:

Homework for each session will include a small assignment, as well as textbook and journal article reading.Please email completed homework and journal article review sheet to by the beginning of class each Wednesday.

Final Exam:

Final Exam will be a multiple-choice exam on the last day of class.

Class Outline (subject to modification!)

March

/ Wednesday
Describing Data
31 / Introduction to statistics: types of data; displaying data; mean, median, standard deviation; misleading graphics; misleading statistics.

April

/ Statistical Theory

7

/ Introduction to probability and probability distributions
14 / Statistical Inference I: The normal distribution, the standard normal distribution, Central Limit Theorem, introduction to hypothesis testing

21

/ Statistical Inference II: introduction to confidence intervals; statistics for one-sample and two-sample means and proportions

28

/ Statistical Inference III: Pitfalls of hypothesis testing

May

/ Specific Statistical Tests
5
/ Statistical Tests for Continuous Outcomes: Linear models (ttest, ANOVA, linear correlation, linear regression); non-parametric tests (Wilcoxon sign-rank, Wilcoxon sum-rank); introduction to regression modeling
12 / Statistical Tests for Categorical and Binary Outcomes: Relative risks, odds ratios, Chi-square test, logistic regression; diagnostic testing and screening

19

/ Statistical Tests for Time-to-Event Data (Survival Analysis): time-to-event data, Kaplan-Meier, Cox regression, hazard ratios

26

/ Synthesis/review: describing data, statistical inference, choosing the right statistical test

June

2 / FINAL EXAM: in-class, multiple choice exam