Economy DASLUDL/BUDL

Economy DASLUDL/BUDL

JV & Varsity Only

Economy Disadvantage (JV & V only)

Economy Disadvantage

Summary

Glossary

Economy DA - 1NC Shell (JV & V) (1/2)

Economy DA - 1NC Link (B.) Drone Surveillance

Economy DA - 1NC Link (B.) Drug Surveillance

Economy DA - 1NC Link (B.) Immigration Surv.

AT: Non-Unique – Housing and Unemployment

AT: Non-Unique – Deficit Spending

AT: No Impact – US Not Key to Global Economy

AT: No Impact – Global Economy Determines US Economy

AT: No Impact – Global Economy Resilient

AT: No Impact – No War

Summary

This Negative position is one that is versatile enough to be used against most cases in the evidence packet. .

The argument itself is rather simple. The Negative first needs to demonstrate that the economy is improving. This is usually done with reference to evidence from various organizations that assess the health of the U.S. economy. Then, the Negative should show that the plan uniquely destroys the economy. For the various cases, these all have different stories, which is why the shell is missing the link argument. Debaters will have to insert one from Pages 6-8 before they read the disadvantage.

Lastly, the Negative should show that destruction of the economy would lead to devastating implications for the world. While this argument might seem to be exaggerated, the question that should be asked is: “What if?” Since extinction is such a high-magnitude impact, one could argue that even if the risk is small, one simply can’t ignore the possibility that the world might face extinction.

The flexibility of this argument towards cases that the Negative might not have yet encountered depends on a little bit of a research burden. The Negative team moving into Championship division should do a little bit of research on how ending surveillance in general destroys the economy. There are hundreds of articles out there that describe that exact scenario. Armed with the general argument, the Negative can apply this to every case that seeks to curtail surveillance.

Glossary

BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

Credit Rating– An evaluation of the credit worthiness of a business (company) or a government, but not individual consumers.

Economic Decline – A general slowdown in economic activity.

Economic Recovery – The process of an economy regaining levels achieved prior to downturn.

Empirics – Relying on observation and experimentation.

Hyperinflation - When price increases are so out of control that the concept of inflation is meaningless.

Infrastructure - The basic physical and organizational structures and facilities (e.g., buildings, roads, and power supplies) needed for the operation of a society or enterprise.

Labor market–The supply of available workers in relation to available work.

Macroeconomic–A branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole, rather than individual markets. This includes national, regional, and global economies.

Markov Probability Model–A system to model random change that assumes that future outcomes depend only on the present state, and not on any preceding events.

Narco-dollars– Money obtained from drug trafficking.

National Airspace System (NAS) – The airspace, navigation facilities and airports of the United States along with their associated information, services, rules, regulations, policies, procedures, personnel and equipment.

Volatility–The degree of financial variation that is possible in an economy in a short period of time.

World Trade Organization (WTO) – An intergovernmental organization which regulates international trade.

Economy DA - 1NC Shell (JV & V) (1/2)

A. Uniqueness – The economy is getting stronger, but that trend can easily be reversed

Saphir, 2015 (Ann; U.S. economy isn't as weak as estimates suggest, Fed paper says;

The U.S. economy is probably not as weak as current estimates suggest, a paper published Monday by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco said, potentially adding to arguments for raising interest rates sooner rather than later. A government report late last month put first-quarter growth at a mere 0.2 percent, far below economists' expectations and uncomfortably close to an outright contraction like that experienced in the first quarter of 2014. But by running a series of statistical corrections for the way the government accounts for seasonal variations in output, the paper's authors found "a good chance that underlying economic growth so far this year was substantially stronger than reported." A chart in the paper suggested first-quarter growth may have been closer to 1.8 percent. That's still below the economy's potential but not dramatically so. A stronger economy suggests a lower hurdle for the Fed to raise interest rates that have been near zero since December 2008. San Francisco Fed President John Williams, whose chief research economist co-authored Monday's paper, has said he believes the economy will bounce back this quarter and may be strong enough for the Fed to begin raising interest rates even as soon as June. The paper's conclusions are at odds with the findings published last week by economists at the Washington-based Federal Reserve Board. They argued that the recent pattern of first-quarter economic slowdowns isn't a reflection of a statistical fluke in the way U.S. gross domestic product is measured.

B. <Insert specific link.>

Economy DA - 1NC Shell (JV & V) (2/2)

C. Economic prosperity enhances global peace

O'DRISCOLL & FITZGERALD '02(Dr Gerald P, frmr Dir of Cntr for Intl Trade & Econ @ Heritage, & Sarah Trade Policy Analyst @ Cntr for Intl Trade & Econ @ Heritage, Dec 18, "Trade Promotes Prosperity & Security, accessed 8/24/03)

It is fitting that economic freedom be included as part of the national security strategy. A strong economy undergirds a strong national defense, and the strong U.S. economy is one source of the military strength of the United States. The national security strategy also argues, however, that the economic strength of other friendly countries will enhance U.S. security. Economic freedom sustains economic growth and wealth creation. Free markets foster the spirit of entrepreneurship and innovation that creates new products and jobs. This creative economic process in turn generates higher incomes, savings and wealth creation, and economic development in nations.According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, for instance, the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay Round together "generate annual benefits of $1,300-$2,000 for the average American family of four."8 Such benefits equal more than $100 per month and would greatly assist struggling families throughout the world. According to a World Bank study, "growth generally does benefit the poor as much as everyone else, so that the growth-enhancing policies of good rule of law, fiscal discipline, and openness to international trade should be at the center of successful poverty reduction strategies." Chapter VI of the Administration's national security strategy describes the process succinctly: "Ignite a New Era of Global Economic Growth Through Free Markets and Free Trade." Specifically: A strong world economy enhances our national security by advancing prosperity and freedom in the rest of the world. Economic growth supported by free trade and free markets creates new jobs and higher incomes. It allows people to lift their lives out of poverty, spurs economic and legal reform, and the fight against corruption, and it reinforces the habits of liberty.

Economy DA - 1NC Link (B.) Drone Surveillance

B. Link

1. Drones are vital for the economy. The plan guts tens of thousands of good paying jobs.

Wolfgang, 2013 (Ben; Drone industry predicts explosive economic boost; Mar 12;

Drones as weapons and drones as spies remain matters of intense debate across the country, but the controversial aircraft are poised to make an impact as something else: economic engines. Private-sector drones — also called unmanned aerial systems or UAVs — will create more than 70,000 jobs within three years and will pump more than $82 billion into the U.S. economy by 2025, according to a major new study commissioned by the industry’s leading trade group. But the report, authored by aerospace specialist and former George Washington University professor Darryl Jenkins, assumes that the White House and Congress stick to the current schedule and have in place the necessary legal and regulatory frameworks. Current law calls for full drone integration into U.S. airspace by September 2015, but many key privacy questions surrounding UAVs have yet to be answered. There’s also growing doubt that the Federal Aviation Administration can meet the congressionally mandated timetable. If deadlines are met and drones become commonplace in American skies, some states will be especially big winners. Virginia, for example, stands to gain nearly 2,500 jobs by 2017. It also could take in $4.4 million in tax revenue and see more than $460 million in overall economic activity by 2017, the report says. Virginia would gain the eighth-most jobs of any state as a result of drone integration. Maryland isn’t far behind, with projections of more than 1,700 new jobs by 2017. California would be by far the biggest winner in terms of jobs, with more than 12,000 expected. Florida, Texas, New York, Washington, Connecticut, Kansas, Arizona and Pennsylvania are also expected to be benefit greatly from the coming drone economy. “This is an incredibly exciting time for an industry developing technology that will benefit society, as well as the economy,” said Michael Toscano, president and CEO of the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International, a trade group that has existed for more than 40 years but has come into the public eye only recently. Drone expansion “means the creation of quality, high-paying American jobs,” Mr. Toscano continued. But the motivation behind Tuesday’s report — arguably the most sweeping look ever at the economic potential of drones — runs deeper than just dollars and cents. The industry faces an uncertain future in light of growing public paranoia surrounding the craft — paranoia that has only been heightened by the debate over whether the Obama administration would ever consider using a drone to kill an American on U.S. soil. While the drones that will be employed by U.S. companies or law enforcement agencies are far different than the military-style UAVs equipped with Hellfire missiles, those distinctions aren’t always clear. Tuesday’s report not only offered the industry a chance to shine the spotlight on drones’ positive uses and economic potential, but also served as an opportunity — or, perhaps a warning — to lawmakers seeking to limit UAVs. More than 20 states are considering bills to establish strict guidelines for what drones can do.

2. New jobs underpin current economic growth

Davidson, 2015 (Paul; Rise in higher-paying jobs lighting US economy; May 11; kdf)

Job growth last month shifted to higher-paying positions in a sign of a broadening labor market recovery. Professional and business services, construction and health care led the solid 223,000 job gains reported by the Labor Department on Friday. Retail and leisure and hospitality lagged. Both have been engines of payroll gains through most of the U.S. employment upswing since 2010. "We're seeing more quality jobs," says Diane Swonk, chief economist of Mesirow Financial. The trend, she says, partly reflects a widening recovery that includes a pickup in full-time positions. Professional and business services added 62,000 jobs in April, with strong advances in computer systems design, management and technical consulting, and architectural and engineering services.

Economy DA - 1NC Link (B.) Drug Surveillance

B. Link

1. Loss of drug trafficking revenue collapses Mexican economy and government

The Daily Telegraph, 1997 (Lord of the Skies, stuff.mit.edu/people/aaelenes/sinaloa/narco/amado/ amado12.html)

Narcotics trafficking is a $30 billion-a-year industry in Mexico, equivalent to the rest of the nation's GNP put together. Oil, the second biggest industry, earns $ 10 billion a year, the annual income of Amado Carrillo Fuentes. The government can't afford to stamp out drug trafficking, even if it could. Without narco-dollars, the Mexican economy would likely collapse and the government along with it. Which explains why the United States, for all its drug war rhetoric, tolerated Carrillo for so long. Which explains a letter Carrillo wrote to the Mexican President, Ernesto Zedillo, on January 14 this year, subsequently leaked to the press: 'Leave me alone to run my business. Otherwise I'll withdraw its benefits from the nation.' Note the slightly impatient tone: Look Ernesto, just don't you forget who's paying the bills around here.

2.Mexican economic decline spills over to the U.S. and collapses the U.S. economy.

Sarukhan, 2012 (Arturo, Ambassador of Mexico to the United States, “Mexico ‘Critically Important’ to US Economy,” Wilson Center, 2/24/12, video testimony,

It’s an incredibly strong relationship, for starters, because a lot of people sometimes don’t stop to think that we trade one billion dollars a day of goods in both directions. Second, that Mexico is the United States’ depending on crate loads that we are either third, or second largest trading partner with the United States. China and Mexico have been sort of in second or third, and we are the second largest buyer of U.S. exports on the face of the Earth. Depending what your area of geographic expertise or fondness is, if you think of Latin America, Mexico buys more U.S. exports than all of Latin America and the Caribbean combined. If you’re focused on Europe, Mexico buys more U.S. exports than the combined purchase of the U.K., Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands. If you’re focused on the new, sexy Asia-Pacific, Mexico is buying more U.S. exports than Japan and China combined. We buy more exports than all the four BRIC countries put together, so it’s a very compelling story. 26 states in America today have Mexico as their #1 or #2 export market, and there are ten million U.S. jobs directly related to trade with Mexico in those states. So, it is very vibrant, very important to weigh economic relationship. Mexico’s macroeconomic fundamentals, when the world is hurting still and still facing some of the challenges from the global recession, Mexico growth last year was five percent with 3.1 [percent] inflation and four percent unemployment. These are very compelling numbers. I think that the macroeconomic fundamentals of Mexico are sound, and this two-way successful relationship that we have developed is critically important for the social well-being and the prosperity of Americans.

Economy DA - 1NC Link (B.) Immigration Surv.

B. Link – The cost of illegal immigration harms the U.S Economy.

Camarota, 2004 (Steven A. Camarota, The High Cost of Cheap Labor Illegal Immigration and the Federal Budget,

When defense spending is not considered, illegal households are estimated to impose costs on the federal treasury of $6,949 a year or 58 percent of what other households received. When defense spending is included, their costs are only 46 percent those of other households. However, they pay only 28 percent as much in taxes as non-illegal households. As a result, the estimated net cost per illegal household was $2,736. Whether one sees this fiscal deficit as resulting from low tax payments or heavy use of services is a matter of perspective. As already discussed, illegal households comprise 3.6 percent of the total population, but as Table 2 shows they account for an estimated 0.9 percent of taxes paid and 1.4 percent of costs. Thus, both their payments and costs are significantly less than their share of the total population. Since they use so much less in federal services than other households, it probably makes the most sense to see the fiscal deficit as resulting from low tax payments rather than heavy use of public services. Total Deficit Created by Illegals. If the estimated net fiscal drain of $2,736 a year that each illegal household imposes on the federal treasury is multiplied by the nearly three million illegal households, the total cost comes to $10.4 billion a year. Whether one considers this to be a large sum or not is, of course, a matter of perspective. But, this figure is unambiguously negative and certainly not trivial. It is also worth remembering that these figures are only for the federal government and do not include any costs at the state or local level, where the impact is likely to be significant.

AT: Non-Unique – Housing and Unemployment

[___] The economy is high—low unemployment, average wages, participation rate, stable credit rating all prove this.

Kruger, 2014

(Daniel Kruger- Phd from Loyal University of Chicago- studies patterns of economics and mortality- “Treasuries in facing Biggest Weekly Drop Since March After Jobs”- Bloomberg June 6, 2014-

Treasuries posted the biggest weekly drop in three months as employment gains in May pushed U.S. payrolls past their pre-recession peak and the jobless rate held at an almost six-year low. The U.S.’s AA+ credit rating was affirmed by Standard & Poor’s, which cited the resiliency and diversity of the economy, almost three years after downgrading the nation for the first time. Yields on government securities in the euro-area fell to record lows a day after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, sparking a global warming crisesrush for bonds. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said May 7 labor-market conditions “are still far from satisfactory.”“The overall economy from a job perspective is finally trending in a good way,” Jason Rogan, managing director of U.S. government trading at Guggenheim Securities, a New York-based brokerage for institutional investors. “From the Fed’s perspective, you’re starting to see very good job growth.” Benchmark 10-year yields rose less than one basis point to 2.59 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York after earlier dropping five basis points, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The price of the 2.5 percent security due in May 2024 dropped 1/32, or 31 cents per $1,000 face value, to 99 7/32. Yields on the securities climbed 11 basis points this week, the most since the five days ended March 7, and rose as high as 2.64 percent yesterday, the most since May 13. Two-year note yields added two basis points to 0.40 percent, the highest level since May 13, gained three basis points this week for a second five-day gain. Credit Rating New York-based S&P said today in a statement that there is a less than one-in-three probability that the U.S.’s credit ranking will change in the next two years. The outlook on the rating is stable. Since the August 2011 downgrade from AAA, record budget deficits have shrunk, economic growth accelerated, the dollar rallied, stocks climbed to all-time highs and Treasuries strengthened their hold as the world’s preferred haven from turmoil. Still, S&P said a polarized policy-making environment and high general government debt and budget deficits constrain the ratings. “After the rating of the U.S. came under pressure because of the debt ceiling and government shut down, we actually saw a better cost of funding for the government,” David Coard, head of fixed-income trading in New York at Williams Capital Group, a brokerage for institutional investors. “We’re still the safe haven everybody seeks when there’s uncertainty in the world. I don’t think that’s changed.”