Population Association

POPULATION ASSOCIATION

NEW ZEALAND

Te Roopu Whaka Waihanga

Iwi O Aotearoa

NEWSLETTER

NOVEMBER 2005

CONTENTS

President’s message: A note from the President / 3
PANZ Newsletter and New Zealand Population Review contributions / 4
Forthcoming conferences, meetings, etc / 5
Statistics New Zealand Jacoby Prize / 6
News from Statistics New Zealand / 7
Latest New Zealand demographic measures / 10
Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato / 12
Other publications, papers, references / 19
PANZ Officers and Council members 2005/2006 / 21
Editors’ and website addresses / 23
PANZ membership and membership/subscription form / 24

PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE

A Note from the President

Much of the PANZ Council’s effort this year was focussed on the biennial conference of the association held at The University of Auckland conference centre on June 30 and July 1. It’s theme was “People and place: communities, regions, diversity and change”, and the diverse theme was reflected in the variety of keynote speeches and papers presented at the conference. Brenda Yeoh from the National University of Singapore presented the first keynote on migrant domestic workers in Sinagpore, and Kevin Dunn from the University of New South Wales kicked off the second day with a keynote on ‘the paradigm of transnationalism’. Other plenary topics included ‘Demography’s missing link: momentum’ (Ian Pool), population studies professionals (James Newell), the 2006 Census (Statistics NZ census team) and ‘Monitoring health inequality through neighbourhood life expectancy’ (Martin Tobias). Other paper sessions covered a range of topics including community, ethnicity, Maori population issues, migration and globalisation, occupation, labour force, migration and diversity, service provision, fertility and demographic structure and internal migration. Some of the paper presentations have been posted on the PANZ website (see below). After the conference, there were a considerable number of messages received from participants noting how much they had got out of the conference. One of the challenges is to maintain the interest and participation of new members who were enrolled as part of the registration process for the conference.

I would like to welcome new members elected onto the PANZ Council: Peter Himona from Te Puni Kokiri, Denise McGregor from Statistics New Zealand, and Alison Reid from Auckland Regional Council. Also, welcome back to those who were on the council previously: James Newell (MERA) as Immediate Past President, Sarah Hillcoat-Nallémtamby (University of Waikato), Arvind Zodgekar (VUW), Anne Henderson, and Mansoor Khawaja (Statistics NZ). Lesley Baddon (ARC) has taken over the role of Secretary, Michael Rich (Ministry of Justice) remains in charge of fiscal prudence as Treasurer, and Cyril Mako (Ministry of Education) has become Vice-President. Having served on the Council for a number of years, I am honoured to have been elected as President. I think we have a strong Council, representing a broad range of institutions interested in population issues, as well as representatives from Christchurch, Wellington, Palmerston North, Hamilton, and Auckland. I would also like to thank Dharmalingam for his ongoing commitment as editor of New Zealand Population Review, and Anne Henderson for editing the Newsletter.

There are a number of initiatives underway, although I will only mention two here. The website has developed over the last couple of years, especially with the input of James Newell. Further changes are in the pipeline, and we are hoping to have the regular input of several people to keep it up to date and interesting. Note the unusual URL: which does not have a www in it, and the rsnz reflects the hosting of the site by the Royal Society of New Zealand. We are also currently in the process of organising a joint meeting next year of PANZ and the Australian Population Association, but the nature of, and venue for, this meeting have not yet been determined.

Hope you all have a good summer break.

Ward Friesen

PANZ Newsletter and New Zealand Population Review contributions

The next issue of the PANZ Newsletter is due out in May 2006, but contributions are welcome at any time. Please make a note of any news, notices, forthcoming conferences, references, etc, you would like included in this newsletter and emailed or snail-mail them to me ( or Anne Henderson, 20 Collingwood St, Palmerston North).

Members are also encouraged to contribute articles to the peer-reviewed New Zealand Population Review. Your articles and any enquiries regarding the journal should be addressed to one of the two journal editors, Dr Dharmalingam () or Dr Arvind Zodgekar ( ). (See p.23 for their full contact addresses.)

Newsletter Ed.

FORTHCOMING CONFERENCES, MEETINGS, etc

Royal Society of New Zealand Conference:

“Science and security – informing New Zealand”

Civic Suite, OldTown Hall, Wellington

17 November 2005

A list of other forthcoming, science-related New Zealand conferences and meetings is provided in the “Events Calendar” on the Royal Society of New Zealand website (

Migration/population research-related seminar, Wellington 2006

A further “end users” seminar on international and national migration- and population-related topics, organised by researchers from a variety of funded social sciences programmes, is likely to be held late March/April 2006. If you have not previously attended one of these end-users’ seminars (and so are not already on the contact list) and/or would like information about this meeting, please contact the Population Research Centre, University of Waikato sometime in the new year

Overseas conferences:

European Association of Population Studies (EAPS) Conference, Main theme: “Population challenges in ageing societies”.

Liverpool, 21-24 June 2006.

Institute for Social and Economic Research (ISER) Conference

on “Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys (MOLS 2006)”,

University of Essex, 12-14 July 2006.

(Some presenters organised; abstracts for other papers by 30 Nov. 2006.)

*****

TV series – ‘Hidden in the numbers’

With only some editing plus a little more interviewing and filming to be done, Auckland Television Production company, Razor Films’ three-part documentary series funded by New Zealand on Air about the changing face of New Zealand’s population is nearing completion. The series will go to air in TVNZ’s new season, which begins around February-March 2006.

“Hidden in the Numbers” will be broken into three one-hour programmes, loosely themed as:

Programme One – Population: who we are (key demographic trends - historically, now and the future);
Programme Two – Consumption, charting changing patterns or earning and spending; and
Programme Three – Time Use, including daily activities, how technology has impacted on our daily lives, and the changing moral make-up of our nation (eg the stories hidden in the crime, sex and vice statistics).

********

STATISTICS NEW ZEALAND JACOBY PRIZE

The Statistics New Zealand Jacoby Prize is awarded by the Population Association of New Zealand for the best essay written by a student during a course of university study on a population topic. The competition is open to students throughout New Zealand and the essays are submitted in the form they were presented during the course of study.

Judged during the year of the biennial PANZ Conference (held in odd-numbered years), the competition is open to all current or immediate past students who present a paper in the Poster/Oral Session at the Conference based on their student research work. On acceptance of their submitted paper or poster, all entrants will receive free registration for the conference.

The winner’s prize is a year's subscription to PANZ and publication of the winning essay in the New Zealand Population Review. In addition, Statistics New Zealand - the sponsor of the prize - will provide the winner with a cash prize of $250, and a copy of the latest New Zealand Official Yearbook and Demographic Trends.

Entries for the 2007 competition can be sent to the co-editor of the New Zealand Population Review (address below):

Dr A Dharmalingam, Population Studies Centre,

University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton.

email:

NEWS FROM STATISTICS NEW ZEALAND

2006 Census Field Operation

With the census field operation fast approaching, we have been talking to local authorities and community organisations about how we can maximise their local knowledge, networks, skills and facilities to achieve the best coverage and highest quality data. Over the next month we will be confirming regional advocates who can help Statistics New Zealand achieve maximum responsiveness in each region for next year’s Census. Area managers were appointed in September for 22 regions around New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand will be recruiting for district supervisors from October 8, and for collectors from early January. For more information on job opportunities for the 2006 Census, visit Development work has begun for the 2006 public information campaign, which will be launched in early February.

2006 Census Imputation Rules

The 2006 Census imputation rules were confirmed in mid-May. A summary paper, 'Imputation and Balancing for the 2006 Census’, has been posted on the Statistics New Zealand website. Go to

Census 2006 Output and Dissemination.

Work is continuing on planning the 2006 Census output and dissemination process. Official Statistics System census seminars were held in Christchurch, Wellington, Hamilton, Counties Manukau and Auckland. The seminars had these presentations:

2006 Census Progress Report, a user focus,
Census Online Form,
2006 Census Release Timetable,
Developing the 2006 Census Product and Service Mix,
2006 Census Product and Service Mix.

The corresponding papers and presentations for items 2-5 are available at: and

General Social Survey

The General Social Survey (GSS) is a multidimensional survey on well-being. It will collect information on a range of social topics on a regular basis to enable cross-sectional and trend analysis of social outcomes. The GSS is one of a range of new surveys to be developed as part of the Programme of Official Social Statistics (POSS). The programme aims to establish a coherent system of official social statistics across the government sector by:

consolidating existing surveys into a managed programme,
introducing new surveys to fill information gaps (eg the General Social Survey and a family survey),
exploiting other sources of data such as administrative databases,
improving analytical capability, dissemination of information and access to data.

The programme will produce comprehensive and cohesive statistics on social well-being and social outcomes, to provide a sound basis for assessing progress towards achieving widely held social goals. Other surveys being considered for development as part of the programme include family, time use, and Mäori social surveys.

Underpinning the GSS is the concept of social well-being. Social well-being lies at the heart of the social policy agenda of government. It relates to the satisfaction of social goals that are widely held in society and that reflect fundamental concerns about what constitutes a 'good life' (eg being healthy and having an adequate income). It is currently intended that the first release of information from the GSS will be in 2008. Results from the GSS will be available in the form of an initial release containing basic results issued by Statistics New Zealand. It is intended that a Confidentialised Unit Record File (CURF) as well as special data services (eg special tabulations) will follow at a later date and be available to interested researchers. One of the key objectives of the GSS is to enable the analysis of the interrelationship of outcomes across domains, including the exploration of multiple disadvantage. This gives the survey a different focus from other Statistics New Zealand surveys, where the output is generally related to one or two domains. Researchers using the CURF will have their own plans for analysis, however advice is sought as to how Statistics New Zealand can best meet broader needs in presenting connections uncovered by the GSS. Statistics New Zealand will release a paper stating the outcomes of the consultation for the GSS on 30 November 2005 (

Population Website Update (

The Population website is increasingly used by a wide range of central government, academic and student users as a primary source of information on population. New material added to the website since the last update includes papers on residents temporarily overseas at the time of the 1996 and 2001 censuses, and links to important papers on other agency websites, such as those on ethnicity and on ethnic intermarriage on the Statistics New Zealand website.

Latest demographic projections

Last release / Next release
National projections:
National population / 16 Dec 2004 / Oct 2007
National ethnic population / 22 April 2005 / 2008-09
National family and household / 1 Jun 2005 / 2008-09
National labour force / 26 Sep 2005 / 2008-09
Subnational projections:
Subnational population / 28 Feb 2005 / Nov 2007
Area unit population / Feb-Jun 2005 / 2008-09
Subnational ethnic population / 19 Aug 2005 / 2008-09
Subnational family and household / 27 Oct 2005 / 2008-09

Information about all of these projections is available from For more information, email or phone toll-free 0508 525 525.

Latest New ZealandDemographic Measures
Population at 30 June(1) / 2003 / 2004 / 2005
Estimated resident population at 30 June / 4,009,200 / 4,061,400 / 4,098,300 P
Annual growth rate (percent) / 1.8 / 1.3 / 0.9 P
Under 15 years / 884,000 / 885,400 / 879,700 P
15–64 years / 2,648,500 / 2,690,200 / 2,721,200 P
15–39 years / 1,424,000 / 1,433,900 / 1,440,000 P
40–64 years / 1,224,500 / 1,256,400 / 1,281,100 P
65+ years / 476,600 / 485,800 / 497,400 P
Median age (years) / 35.0 / 35.2 / 35.5 P
Sex ratio (males/100 females) / 96.7 / 96.8 / 96.9 P
Vital and Migration Statistics, year ended 30 June
Live births(2) / 54,942 / 57,870 / 57,986
Deaths(3) / 27,764 / 28,134 / 28,437
Natural increase / 27,178 / 29,736 / 29,549
Permanent and long-term migration
Arrivals / 97,250 / 84,285 / 79,139
Departures / 54,733 / 62,277 / 70,546
Net migration / 42,517 / 22,008 / 8,593
Total migration(4)
Arrivals / 3,463,828 / 3,884,702 / 4,314,595
Departures / 3,385,378 / 3,883,193 / 4,284,663
Net migration / 78,450 / 1,509 / 29,932
Demographic Indices, year ended 30 June(5)
Crude birth rate (births per 1,000 mean population) / 13.8 / 14.3 / 14.2 P
Total fertility rate (births per woman) / 1.92 / 2.01 / 2.01 P
Crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 mean population) / 7.0 / 7.0 / 7.0 P
Infant mortality rate (deaths under one year per 1,000 live births) / 5.2 / 5.0 / 5.5
Median age of women having a baby (years) / 30.2 / 30.2 / 30.3
Vital Statistics, year ended 31 December
Marriages(6) / 21,419 / 21,006 / ..
Divorces(7) / 10,491 / 10,609 / ..
Induced abortions(8) / 18,511 / 18,211 / ..
Demographic Indices, year ended 31 December(5)
General marriage rate (marriages per 1,000 not-married population aged 16+ years) / 14.7 / 13.9 / ..
Divorce rate (divorces per 1,000 existing marriages) / 13.1 / 13.2 / ..
General abortion rate (abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years) / 21.0 / 20.5 / ..
Median age at first marriage (years)
Males / 29.5 / 29.9 / ..
Females / 27.7 / 28.1 / ..
Median age at divorce (years)
Males / 42.5 / 43.0 / ..
Females / 40.1 / 40.4 / ..
Median age of women having an abortion (years) / 24.7 / 24.7 / ..
Life expectancy at birth (years of life) for 2002–04(9)
Males / 77.0 / .. / ..
Females / 81.3 / .. / ..
(1) 2001-base estimated resident population.
(2) Births registered in New Zealand to mothers resident in New Zealand, by date of registration.
(3) Deaths registered in New Zealand of people resident in New Zealand, by date of registration.
(4) Includes the short-term (less than 12 months) movement of overseas and New Zealand residents, as well as permanent and long-term migration.
(5) All data are based on the resident population concept.
(6) Marriages registered in New Zealand of bridegrooms resident in New Zealand.
(7) Orders for dissolution of marriage granted in New Zealand.
(8) Induced abortions registered in New Zealand.
(9) Abridged life tables.
Symbols:
P provisional
.. figures not available
Compiled by Demography Division, Statistics New Zealand, Christchurch.

POPULATION STUDIES CENTRE, UNIVERSITY OF WAIKATO

Staff news

Two staff members moved on to another job, or other activities, respectively during this period. Sandra Baxendine took up the position as statistician at the Waikato District Health Board, while Jacquie Lidgard moved into (semi)-retirement, although she will continue as a research associate of the PSC and, for example, will continue research on ageing in rural areas. Sarah Howard commenced to provide assistance on a part-time basis on documentation of the PSC databases and publication of the long forthcoming series of papers on New Zealand regions 1986-2001. Bill Cochrane was successful in obtaining a Waikato University PhD scholarship and commenced in October research on the dynamics of regional labour markets in New Zealand. Bettina Rauschmayer, a German sociology student joined the Migration Research Group as an intern in order to learn the intricacies of our migration research.

Visit of Professor Jenny Gierveld

As the Waikato node of the Building Research Capability in the Social Sciences (BRCSS) Network, the Population Studies Centre hosted in May the visit of Professor Jenny Gierveld, who is a member of the international advisory group of BRCSS. Professor Gierveld, who is Emeritus Professor of Sociology and Social Gerontology at the Free University of Amsterdam and also a former director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), is a world-renowned gerontologist. She has, for example, developed a scale for measuring loneliness among older people that is widely used. The Enhancing Wellbeing in an Ageing Society (EWAS) project particularly benefited from Professor Gierveld’s visit, as she provided constructive feedback on the draft questionnaire of a nationwide survey for this project. Jenny Gierveld also gave a seminar entitled Longevity and care: the relationship between older parents and adult children on 17 May. Following this visit, Professor Gierveld participated in the meeting of the national research college of BRCSS in Wellington, where she presented another seminar entitled Loneliness or social integration? The social well-being of older people on May 25.

Demographic change in the Waikato region

Sandra Baxendine, Bill Cochrane and Jacques Poot completed a study of demographic change and transport needs in the Waikato region, commissioned by Environment Waikato as an input into the formulation of their Regional Land Transport Strategy. While in many ways overall demographic change in the Waikato tracked the national change fairly well, there are major differences across the sub-regional territorial authorities with important implications for transport planning. The results are available as a PSC discussion paper (see list of publications).

Two international workshops at the PSC

In association with the Economics Department at WaikatoUniversity and BRCSS, the PSC hosted two International Workshops in September. The workshop on September 26 was entitled Ecological-economic modelling for policy and included –besides presentations of New Zealand participants Jacek Krawczyk (Victoria University of Wellington), Suzi Kerr (Motu) and Ric Scarpa (University of Waikato) –a paper by Professor Yoshiro Higano of the University of Tsukuba in Japan. On Tuesday September 27, the workshop focussed on Transfers of knowledge and wealth in the context of demographic change, and included presentations by Professors Kingsley Haynes (GeorgeMasonUniversity), Bob Stimson (University of Queensland) and Terry Clower (University of NorthTexas). Details can be found on the PSC website.