Director, Institute of Social and Political Research, RAS

Gennady Osipov,

Director, Institute of Social and Political Research, RAS

Dear participants in our meeting, colleagues, guests, ladies and gentlemen, comrades.

On behalf of the leaders of the Institute of Social and Political Research and the American University in Moscow I declare our conference open. I congratulate all the participators with the beginning of our constructive, as I hope, work.

The meeting of Russian and American scientists takes place under the slogan: “Russia-USA: Look into the future”.

I will make no secret from the fact that some scientists and politicians have called in question the very purposefulness of our meeting. “What partnership are we talking about when the escalation of political and military tension between the United States and Russia is growing in geometric progression”. “Yes”, I replied, “tension is growing; however, we as scientists must do our best in order not only to relieve this tension but to raise the partnership between our countries to a level unprecedented in the history of our relationships”. This is our duty, this is our predestination, this is our obligation in today situation.

Many of those present have witnessed the Caribbean Crisis. The world was on the edge of a nuclear war. Then a great scientist and philosopher Bertrand Russell helped to relieve the tension. He addressed to the leaders of both countries – the United States and Russia – and clearly delineated the unavoidable consequences of a military catastrophe this crisis could lead to. The scientist’s conclusion was clear: there will be no winners – there will be worldwide destruction. Reason has triumphed and the crisis has been resolved by mutual efforts of our two Powers. Now the crisis repeats itself. American nuclear warhead missiles are stationed near Russia’s borders.

Our today meeting has an epochal character. This hall has gathered scientists and politicians from our two Great Powers, the Powers which have happened to be engaged in a serious conflict, in confrontation with each other. The confrontation more serious, in my opinion, than during the Caribbean Crisis. Now the future of human civilization and maybe the very life on this planet Earth depends upon the United States and Russia.

We have gathered here not for addressing somebody any claims or accusations and analyzing problems of contemporary world in terms of who is right and who is wrong; in short, not for exacerbating the current confrontation between our two Great Powers but, on the contrary, for doing as much as possible to stop this confrontation, to shift the attention of the Russian and the American people to the solution of constructive problems, urgent for the future of human civilization. For doing as much as possible in order that our trains rushing to meet each other along the same track leave this track and start moving along the parallel lines leading in the same direction – the direction of partnership based on mutual understanding and respect to national interests and of mutual constructive activity not only for the conservation but for the prosperity of our civilization.

What is going on today in Russian and American media? There are calculations, how many times the United States and Russia can annihilate each other using nuclear weapons. The result is disadvantageous for Russia: the United States can annihilate Russia four or six times and Russia can annihilate the United States only one or two times. The prophecy is circulating attributed to a Bulgarian clairvoyant Vanga which says, I cite literally: ‘After the war in Osetia the World War III will begin”. And so on and so forth. Some writers outstripping events already get ready to create a hymn celebrating the beginning of a Cold War. Making farce of the catastrophe which threatens the world is, in my opinion, not only immoral but equal to a crime against humanity.

One might pay no attention to all this were it not for an increasing “muscle play”.

Analyzing the current political, military and ideological confrontation between our two Powers we, scientists, must firmly declare: there will be no World War III, there will be no new Cold War which would inevitably become a prelude to a Hot War.

If the confrontation between our two Great Powers continue, if the trains keep rushing to meet each other along the same track, the result will be the death of world civilization and the extinction of life on the planet Earth. And the question still remains, whether the Earth will keep its place in the planet system.

An outstanding Russian scientist Nikita Moiseyev has scientifically substantiated the conception of “nuclear winter” which will come after a nuclear conflict. Unfortunately, this conception has been forgotten or is pretended to be forgotten.

Time has added to this warning something new. As a result of nuclear heat emission huge masses of methane will be released killing the whole life on our planet. This warning has been made by Eric Galimov, a member of our Academy and another outstanding Russian scientist.

It is also useful to remember a warning by Alexander Spirin, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who told that two experts and $500,000 are enough to supply terrorists with a biological weapon capable of killing life on whole continents. We cannot exclude the possibility that these experts would do their black business somewhere near Washington or Moscow.

We must not ignore volcanoes as well. Our Earth is like a worm-eaten apple with thousands of passages leading from its nucleus to the surface and burning hot masses of matter moving along them. If, accidentally or intentionally, nuclear charges hit a volcano crater eruptions can occur anywhere. These are only a few examples. And all this is not a fantasy but hard reality.

And these tragic consequences for our planet and humankind may result not from sixfold annihilation of Russia or twofold annihilation of the United States but from the use of only one thousandth of accumulated nuclear weapons in case of a military conflict. And we must take into account the consideration that independently of the superiority in conventional weapons and troops one part of a conflict may have over the other, the other part having nuclear weapon will inevitably use this weapon in case of defeat with the result of not only their mutual annihilation but the annihilation of human civilization at large.

Can anybody really assume or imagine that after a conventional military conflict the President of the United States or the leadership of the NATO would review the troops on the Red Square, as the President of one neighbouring with Russia country dreams of or that Russian troops would march along the streets of Washington, New York or London?

There is one more aspect of this problem. This is the US missile defense system in Europe including the stationing of nuclear warhead missiles in Poland and Czech. How can a country being practically the target of those missiles respond to such events quietly? Surely no, it cannot. And a response will be adequate. Scientists know it and many of the participants here should know it too that contemporary science has immense possibilities. There is a real possibility to create a technical system adding a circular quality to rays directed at Russia with the result that any nuclear explosion or missile launch made by terrorists, for instance, in Spain or Ireland will cover with “nuclear winter” East and West Europe. In addition, nuclear power plants may detonate and not only in Europe.

Of the will of the Polish and Czech leaders the nuclear sword of self-destruction will be raised over these peoples. But do other European peoples really want that? No, nobody wants that except political maniacs and adventurers. Their activity must be restrained. The world community should be aware of the consequences of these political Herostrati’s actions. Unfortunately, it is largely in the dark about those. With the use of contemporary media political adventurers and their stooges have enmeshed the world in the web of disinformation and lies.

Irrespective of what is said, the architecture of contemporary world is determined by the relationships between the United States and Russia. And this fact is cleverly used by political adventurers of all kinds for blackmailing, creating and rousing conflicts between our two Great Powers, for engaging them in the solution of their own national problems while neglecting the problems of conserving peace and security of peoples.

And I feel absolutely certain, if there are no sincere and honest partnership between the United States and Russia, partnership without secret purposes and double standards, without claims for world leadership, the Damoclean sword raised over human civilization will sooner or later do its business. Only the United States and Russia can remove this threat to humankind. This is the first great humanistic role of our two Great Powers. This is their great responsibility to humankind.

The contemporary civilization faces many other problems whose neglect may have tragic or irreversible character. And this determines the second great humanistic role of our two Great Powers. Let me only list these problems.

1. This is global warming caused by growing emission of greenhouse gases. Russian scientists have solved this problem within the framework of the “Synthesis” project. After some experiments this project will be ready for practical implementation. In this field the efforts of scientists from both countries can be united.

2. Uncontrolled deforestation which will inevitably result in decreasing oxygen supply. This is the problem of possible “oxygen hunger”.

3. The growing consumption of natural energy resources leads to their exhaustion. The problem of the transition to renewable energy sources – hydrogenous, solar, seismic and so on - becomes increasingly urgent. But even these new kinds of energy will not be able to sustain energy consumption for household and industrial needs. On the agenda is the problem of using helium-3 which is absent on the Earth but exists in unlimited quantities on the Moon. We can supply our planet for many centuries with ecologically safe energy but this is possible only on the base of partnership and interaction between the United States and Russia.

4. The anthropogenous burden on the planet is growing at unprecedented pace including the destruction of organic top-soil. Our planet is put into concrete and asphalt shackles. But nature can cruelly revenge for our unreasonable attitude. We together must think how to prevent this threat.

5. The decrease of organic elements in food may have unpredictable consequences for future generations. This is a “genetic” threat.

6. Major geopolitical problems are inequality, poverty, hunger of a considerable part of the world population. The collision of interests between the rich North and the poor South can grow into a serious military conflict.

7. The threat of international and national terrorism is increasing. Only joint efforts of our two Powers can remove this threat once and for all.

8. Of great importance is the joint solution of international problems including Israeli-Palestinian relationships, South-Korean and Iranian nuclear programmes, radical Islamism in Afghanistan and so on. These are also threats and intimidation addressed by some countries to others.

This list can be easily continued. The solution of all these problems is possible under the condition of removing negative processes which have been generated by humans and have prevailed in contemporary world. These are:

·  arms race, one spire after another;

·  proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction;

·  enlargement of military blocs and spread of military bases;

·  trampling upon rights of peoples;

I cannot keep myself from reproducing the words said here in Moscow and then repeated in Washington by Robert Krieble who once sponsored the US Cold War against Russia. “The United States must leave the NATO”, he said. “The NATO is an anachronism. As long as the United States remain a NATO member, tension in the world will only increase”. This is the will of a great, undoubtedly, American.

During an Ariel Sharon’s visit in Moscow, when the ways out of the Middle East crisis were discussed he said that if the United States and Russia together guarantee the stability of the Israeli state’s existence and consider all the political adventures directed against this state as directed against themselves, the Middle-East crisis will gradually end.

Following the same logic, who will be able to threaten, for instance, Poland, Czech, Estonia or Ukraine if the United States and Russia mutually guarantee their sovereignty and stability of their borders? Surely nobody. And right away the next question arises: do these countries need huge armed forces and huge military budgets, do they need the NATO? Surely no.

Unlimited possibilities for cooperation are open before the United States and Russia. There is only one way for this cooperation: to remove by joint efforts all the negative and destructive created by past generations and to take decisively a positive and constructive position. Huge resources and efforts under the influence of political “authorities” recklessly wasted on self-destruction of humankind can and must be spent on the solution of its problems and its prosperity.

Russia and the United States could be initiators of two international projects. One of them has political and another – practical character.

As September 11, 2001 and August 8, 2008 have shown, the existing system of international security has proved to be very vulnerable. We need a qualitatively new system of international security. In this connection, it would be useful to return to the initiatives by Dan Quale, the former US Vice President, and Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State, as well as by some Russian scientists about the transition to a system of security based on world power centres (Europe, Russia, the USA, China, India, Brazil, Islamic World). The main objective of these initiatives is to ensure security and stability on our planet. In parallel, we could organize the Moscow-Washington Club which would make scientific research and work out concrete recommendations for solving global problems of contemporary civilization.