FARHAD MIKAYILOV
Development inclinations of the human
potential in the CIS countries
In another hand we can note that, in the end of the 20 century the world economy began new development etap. This development was aided to the industrial etap based to the scientific new technology from the industrial etap based to the labour capacity. Naturally, in this new technology material producing resources kept its importance. But in the modern time increasing the economic production capacity, first of all, is defined with becoming high level staff, applying new knowledge, technology and admisnistration.
All of these factors it transfers the potentiality of the man and his intelect to the strengh of the development.
For marking influence level in the economic development of the human potential some of the reseachers realize some surveys in the beginning 50 years. In this survey the first ideas about the human capital givven by USA economist H. Bekker is conseption as Human Capital [4], [5].
In other years some of metodolgies about assesing the development level was done. And this was called human potential development index givven by UNDP in 1991. In the same time for assesing the level of economic development was givven a metodolgy for development index. This index calculates with the comparsion 1/3 of the medical, education and material indicators. This expression was expressed below this formula.
HDI=(LEI+EI+GDPi)/3
HDI- hmuan development index
Lei- Life Expectancy index
Ei- educational index
GDPi- Gross Domestic Product index
We note that, Azerbaijan participated in the conference REO of UNDP in 1994 and the summary of human development was printed till 1995. We divided three period in the human potential development direction [3].
In the first period it needed explain the national modern terminology about the human development. The education company began to acquante nearly the problem. For this purpose, intenational organizations aspects of human development on humanist programes begin to strengthen diffusing informations.
In the second preparing new generations was taken an aim of the specialists. Education about the human development has been able to concerned to the theory and practic activities as soon as it arrangs any level. By 1997 high level universities and non-government organizations representatives begin to make trainings about the development theory. Forming lectures at the universities by 1998 included human development courses to own education programmes. This subject based pilote project prepared by the Ministry of Education and UNDP development programme was studied at some schools in 2001 [5].
In the third period covered main approach the integration to the national strategy is consist of the importance of the done works. We note that after 1991 Azerbaijan faced with some aspects which prevent to the human development. This aspects are explained below.
In the transition period coming down life level, not using enough the social infrastructure inequality in the pepole life, economic confusion, disbelief, lasting the war and other aspects maked the economic crisis. The social researchers show that the prespectives of human development in Azerbaijan is very higher. Becoming the intellectual potential and natural resources of our republic gives opportunity increasing the human development. At the same time our republic have scientific potential and is in the main role in the world on scientific fields. This is in relation to the scientific and technic fields which used and studied the natural resources.
Table 1. Human development index. [4]
1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2005 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012Azerbaijan / 0,669 / 0,600 / 0,633 / 0,693 / 0,736 / 0,734 / 0,732 / 0,734
Armenia / 0,628 / * / 0,648 / 0,695 / 0,720 / 0,722 / 0,726 / 0,729
Belarus / 0,728 / 0,688 / 0,720 / 0,730 / 0,780 / 0,785 / 0,789 / 0,793
Kazakhstan / 0,713 / 0,668 / 0,663 / 0,721 / 0,739 / 0,744 / 0,750 / 0,754
Kyrgyzstan / 0,609 / * / 0,582 / 0,601 / 0,617 / 0,615 / 0,621 / 0,622
Moldova / 0,650 / * / 0,592 / 0,636 / 0,645 / 0,652 / 0,657 / 0,660
Russian Federation / 0,730 / * / 0,713 / 0,753 / 0,777 / 0,782 / 0,784 / 0,788
Tajikistan / 0,615 / * / 0,529 / 0,582 / 0,608 / 0,612 / 0,618 / 0,622
Ukraine / 0,714 / * / 0,673 / 0,718 / 0,728 / 0,733 / 0,737 / 0,740
Uzbekistan / 0,614 / 0,586 / 0,597 / 0,617 / 0,639 / 0,644 / 0,649 / 0,654
Middle indicator on CIS / 0,679 / 0,625 / 0,641 / 0,676 / 0,697 / 0,697 / 0,701 / 0,709
Middle indicator on world / 0,620 / 0,629 / 0,652 / 0,676 / 0,689 / 0,691 / 0,694
In this regard, the current conditions compared to the developed countries to accelerate the development of human potential is high. In Azerbaijan nowadays position of human potential development and the world rating was showen in the picture 1. As it is seen from picture in the growth of the human develoment in Azerbaijan have been observed sustainablity. And as this growth range was very higher year by year. If we consider that, in 1995 this difference was 0.009, in 2010 was 0.089 in our country. If we compare USSR countries by this indicator, it shows clearly that in 1995 our country was not higher than others, now it was changed, gained our country. Azerbaijan was 98 rating among the 182 countries in 1995, but in 2010 increase to 67th place or included to high development countries.
Human development index is equal 3 sub index - life expectancy index, education index and GDP index. As formula
HDI=0.33LEI+0.33EI+0.33+GDPI (2)
But especially when we had a look to the end in Azerbaijan the rapid growth of per capita GDP increased at the expense of GDPi on the background of the HDI increased, the specific gravity with the other two sub-index decline was observed. We can see clearly from the graphic.
Picture 1. Removing sub index from index
As seen from picture in 2000 it is observed sustainable growth in GDP. Other sub ind ex is active on the increasing trend of GDPi. Other two index is active on the decreasing trend. According to these terms percent of HDI in GDP have to increase and decrease in two sub index. That is to say every sub index givven 0.33 percent can increase and decrease [2].
Value aspects influenced HDI is gained main importance. One of the such aspects is life expactancy index. Increasing life expactancy is useful in result meetings directed protecting people health. People health is closed normal activity of health system. Note that direction of protection people health life expectancy increase to 0.087 comparing 1995 in 2012, even in 1995 if GDPI is less than world indicator, in 2010 that indicator was higher than world indicator. Steps aided in direction of protection of people health show itself to health service in the growth of the expenditure. In 2010 expenditure for health grew 5.7 times in comparison with 1995. 6.5 percent in comparison with previous year. Note that, in 2012 per capita expenditure for health was 54.9 AZN, and it was higher 10.1 times in comparison 2000, 1.2 times in comparison previous year. In spite of all this growth according to the World Health Organization, 2010, per capita public health expenditure is behind than a number of European and CIS countries. According to World Health Organization, health expenditures were per capita 429 $ in Turkey in 2010, 3602 $ in the United States, 3502$ in Germany, 2573 $ in Italy, 6018 $ in Norway, 2747 $ in United Kingdom, 306 $ in Russia, CIS countries, 208 $ in Belarus, 40 $ in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, 195 $, 56 $ in Armenia, Ukraine, 98 $ or 97 $ dollar in Moldova, in Georgia, 73 $, 21 $ in Uzbekistan, 29 $ and so on 13 $ in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In Azerbaijan it was 67 $ [6], [7].
Table 2. Life expectancy index.
1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2005 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012Azerbaijan / 0,708 / 0,718 / 0,739 / 0,773 / 0,795 / 0,798 / 0,800 / 0,802
Armenia / 0,755 / 0,772 / 0,807 / 0,839 / 0,851 / 0,853 / 0,856 / 0,858
Belarus / 0,801 / 0,772 / 0,762 / 0,771 / 0,779 / 0,782 / 0,786 / 0,798
Kazakhstan / 0,740 / 0,696 / 0,690 / 0,709 / 0,713 / 0,715 / 0,718 / 0,747
Kyrgyzstan / 0,732 / 0,728 / 0,730 / 0,746 / 0,758 / 0,762 / 0,767 / 0,758
Moldova / 0,753 / 0,741 / 0,740 / 0,759 / 0,768 / 0,771 / 0,774 / 0,783
Russian Federation / 0,758 / 0,727 / 0,713 / 0,720 / 0,737 / 0,742 / 0,747 / 0,774
Tajikistan / 0,679 / 0,670 / 0,689 / 0,722 / 0,741 / 0,745 / 0,749 / 0,754
Ukraine / 0,787 / 0,757 / 0,750 / 0,759 / 0,765 / 0,767 / 0,770 / 0,770
Uzbekistan / 0,741 / 0,735 / 0,744 / 0,750 / 0,757 / 0,759 / 0,763 / 0,766
Middle indicator on CIS / 0,747 / 0,732 / 0,738 / 0,756 / 0,767 / 0,770 / 0,774 / 0,781
As it is seen in Azerbaijan, this indicator is very low. If we take into account that, as set out in the country constitution, every Azerbaijani citizen has the right to free health service and the same amount in order to use this right is not enough.
Note that, the main part of health expenditure 69.18% was shared to hospitals, 18.51% of expenditure to policlinic and ambulances, 1.14% to scientific survey, 11.2% to other services. And it is not enough for preparing stuff and increasing the special level of stuff. Health care expenditures relative to GDP in Azerbaijan for a period of at least how it influenced the life expectancy to determine the share of health expenditure to GDP is assumed to be the life of the dependence between rating.
Index as a relative indicator of life expectancy, such as the factors that influence the state budget allocated to health spending share of GDP (SHN) and people's living level of the nominal per capita income as an indicator of the overall average absolute expression (ANPG) were selected. Giving in the bracket (-1) expresses desired one year time because of influence dependent indicator of chosen free indicators. Account is belong to1996-2011 based statistic base.
LOG (LEI) = -0.015LOG (SHN (-1)) + 0.013LOG (ANPG (-1))-0.396 (3)
We can consider results solidly. So regressive(reqressiya) index 0.92 shows that determinants are 92% changeable in the life expectancy index. Regressive (reqressiya) index quality shows that its 92 % is clear. Expressing the regressive index F statistical value is very higher than Fkrit says something about R2. If t - statistics in module prices are higher than tkrit it means that standard mistakes are very few. If Durbin-Watson index is 2.09 it means that there is not autocorrelation. In other words dependence is adequate and surveys are useful to do.
Contrast attracts in the result. Health expenditure from government budget index (-0.15) shows the cause 1.5 percent decreasing in the life expectancy index. That is to say health expenditure from budget to high medical service is a reason of growth in average life expectancy. It is true that, recently in particular "Socio-economic development of regions" in terms of logistics in the framework of modern medical and diagnostic centers, the construction is very praiseworthy. Improvement of life, standard of population which is generally expressed in nominal per capita income growth, a positive impact on life expectancy index is assumed to be reflected in the model. Thus the nominal per capita income growth of 100 percent, the life expectancy is assumed to be a one-year delay in the index by 1.3 percent growth is observed. Dependence direction is the expected result. Because each person incomes growth gives opportunity to feed quality, to use quality medical services, normal work regime, the average duration of life is increased as a result. One of the aspect which influencing to human development is education level [2].
The successful future of each country in the modern world is determined by the level of education in this country. Experience shows that the main indicator of the development of the state's abundance of natural resources, but importantly, to change into human capital, which is to provide the driving force behind the society. This is the necessary position of the education system. USA, Japan, South Korea and other developed countries belong to the material resources had a large income from human development. Surveys prove that, share of education which influence to the development in these countries are very higher and equal nearly to 70 %.
Results of World Bank research shows that, 76 % of national resource of USA is human capital, 19% production, 5% natural resources. In the European countries human capital is 74, production is 24, natural resource is 2 %. In Russia human index is 50%, production is 10, natural resource is 40%. Attention increase to the education is shown in the education index as sub index. We can see the changes of education index in the picture 4 for the years.
So comparison to 1995 education index is estimable increasing 0.036 joint, but in the last 3 years stability of education development requires attention to this field. Note that, in 2010 comparison 2000 year education expenditure increased 6.4 times. But in that time the part of GDP for education expenditure have fallen, it is caused of the decreasing special weight of expenditure for health and disparity between the budget growth rate and special weight of health expenditure of government budget.
Table3. The dynamics of the education index
1990 / 1995 / 2000 / 2010 / 2011Azerbaijan / 0,779 / 0,776 / 0,787 / 0,815 / 0,760
Armenia / 0,762 / 0,777 / 0,807 / 0,803 / 0,763
Belarus / 0,831 / 0,823 / 0,869 / 0,883 / 0,866
Kazakhstan / 0,826 / 0,816 / 0,826 / 0,886 / 0,839
Kyrgyzstan / 0,814 / 0,769 / 0,810 / 0,817 / 0,721
Moldova / 0,804 / 0,779 / 0,784 / 0,779 / 0,714
Russian Federation / 0,851 / 0,824 / 0,851 / 0,853 / 0,862
Tajikistan / 0,793 / 0,770 / 0,764 / 0,786 / 0,710
Ukraine / 0,847 / 0,835 / 0,859 / 0,887 / 0,860
Uzbekistan / 0,781 / 0,782 / 0,778 / 0,714 / 0,716
Middle indicator on CIS / 0,809 / 0,795 / 0,814 / 0,822 / 0.781
Middle indicator on world / 0,719 / 0,732 / 0,747 / 0,786 / 0.786
In our countries comparison to other countries expenditure for education is very free. So in Norway this indicator is 6.7%, in Iran 5.5%, In Canada is 4.9%, in Kazakhstan is 2.8%.