Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors

Supplementary material

P.A. Harrison1,*, R. Dunford1, C. Savin2, M.D.A. Rounsevell3, I.P. Holman4,

A.S. Kebede5 and B. Stuch6

*Corresponding author: E-mail: ; Tel: +44 1865 275848

Online Resource 1European area-average changes in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) mean temperature and precipitation for the 2050s, the five GCMs and three combinations of emissions scenario and climate sensitivity

Emissions / Climate sensitivity / CSMK3 / IPCM4 / HadGEM / GFCM21 / MPEH5
DJF / JJA / DJF / JJA / DJF / JJA / DJF / JJA / DJF / JJA
2050s Area average temperature change (oC)
B1 / 1.5 (Low) / 1.7 / 1.1 / 1.3 / 1.3 / 1.1 / 1.3 / 1.2 / 1.1 / 1.2 / 1.0
B2 / 3.0 (Med) / 3.3 / 2.1 / 2.4 / 2.5 / 2.0 / 2.4 / 2.3 / 2.0 / 2.2 / 1.9
A1b / 4.5 (High) / 4.9 / 3.1 / 3.6 / 3.6 / 3.0 / 3.5 / 3.4 / 3.0 / 3.3 / 2.8
2050s Area average precipitation change (%)
B1 / 1.5 (Low) / 4.2 / -2.0 / 2.5 / -4.2 / 1.1 / -9.6 / 3.6 / -13.6 / 3.6 / -7.8
B2 / 3.0 (Med) / 8.3 / -3.4 / 4.9 / -7.4 / 2.1 / -16.8 / 7.2 / -22.6 / 7.0 / -13.6
A1b / 4.5 (High) / 12.5 / -4.6 / 7.4 / -10.3 / 3.3 / -23.0 / 11.1 / -29.5 / 10.6 / -18.6

Online Resource2(Next Page) Patterns of changes in annual temperature (first column), winter precipitation (second column) and summer precipitation for the 2050s, A1b emissions scenarios and medium climate sensitivity for five GCMs: CSMK3 (first row), GFCM21 (second row), HADGEM (third row), IPCM4 (fourth row), and MPEH5 (last row)

Online Resource3 Europe-wide changes in selected socio-economic drivers under the four CLIMSAVE socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s

Variable (% change from current) / We are the World / Icarus / Should I Say or Should I Go / Riders on the Storm
SOCIAL DRIVERS:
Population / 5 / -9 / 23 / 16
Water savings due to behavioural change / 45 / -30 / 11 / 52
Dietary preferences for meat / -21 / 10 / 0 / -9
TECHNOLOGICAL DRIVERS:
Agricultural mechanisation / 44 / 10 / 5 / 77
Water savings due to technological change / 29 / -35 / -60 / 45
Agricultural yields / 15 / -9 / -3 / 26
Irrigation efficiency / 26 / -9 / -21 / 58
ECONOMIC DRIVERS:
GDP / 94 / 0 / -36 / 54
Food imports / -13 / -6 / -13 / -13
Bioenergy production / 1.8 / 6.7 / 1.8 / 6.7
Oil price / 73 / 210 / 163 / 210

Online Resource 4Description of the 11 sectoral indicators

Indicator / Description
Artificial surfaces / Percentage of each grid cell under urban/suburban landcover.
People flooded in a 1 in 100 year event / The number of people flooded by both coastal and fluvial flooding in a 1 in 100 year (1%) event.
Water Exploitation Index / Proportion of the available water resources in each catchment that is abstracted for agricultural, domestic or energy production.
Irrigation usage / Average annual volume of irrigation usage.
Biodiversity Vulnerability Index / A measure of the total number of species within each grid cell that loose or gain both suitable climate and habitat space compared to the baseline. It is based on a subgroup of 12 species[1] that represent a cross-section of European species from different taxa, regions and habitats.
Food production / Gridded production-weighted food production derived as total daily calories of all foodstuffs modelled for each grid cell divided by the population.
Intensively farmed / Percentage of each grid cell under arable or dairying.
Extensively farmed / Percentage of each grid cell under sheep and beef cattle farming.
Forest area / Area of each grid cell under managed and unmanaged forest.
Unmanaged land / Percentage of each grid cell that is not under arable, forestry or urban landuses.
Intensity index / Scoring land uses in the following order of intensity: Urban > Intensive > Extensive > Forest > Unmanaged land.The total score for a grid cell is compared with the baseline value to determine whether or not land use has intensified.

Online Resource 5The four European regions:Western Europe= Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary (west), Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Slovakia (west), Switzerland, UK;Southern Europe = Bulgaria (southwest), Greece, France (Mediterranean coast), Italy, Portugal, Spain, Slovenia;Eastern Europe = Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany (extreme northeast), Hungary (east), Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia (east);Northern Europe = Norway, Sweden, Finland

Online Resource 6Climate-driven changes in mean grid-cell indicator values with reference to baseline values. The two scenarios are those which lead to the greatest and least change in unmanaged land.


Online Resource 7 Box and whisker plots for Europe and the four regions for nine indicators for baseline, 2050s climate scenarios combined with baseline socio-economic (All CC; values based on grid cell data from 10 runs), the 10 climate scenarios combined with each of the four socio-economic scenarios (All CC + Riders, WRW, SoG and Icarus; each based on 10 runs) and the Low (_L) and High (_H) emissions scenarios of the five climate models (HadGEM, GFCM21, IPCM4, CSMK3 and MPEH5) combined with the four socio-economic scenarios (All SE + HadGEM_H, etc; each based on 4 runs). The whiskers show the 5th and 95th percentiles whilst the boxes show the 25th and 75th percentiles. The median is marked with a white dash in the centre of the box. Note for scaling reasons that values may extend off the displayed graph.

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[1] (1) Common poppy (Papaverrhoeas), (2) Linnet (Cardueliscannabina), (3) Bilberry (Vacciniummyrtillus), (4) Hornbeam (Carpinusbetulus), (5) Norway spruce (Piceaabies), (6)Brown bear (Ursusarctosarctos), (7) Western dappled white butterfly (Euchloecrameri), (8) Common saltmarsh grass (Puccinelliamaritima),(9) Strawberry clover (Trifoliumfragiferum), (10) Bell heather (Erica cinerea), (11) Red deer (Cervuselaphas), (12) Capercaillie (Tetraourogallus).