POSC 330

The Complexity of Politics

Monday Wednesday: 2:35 to 4:20

Library 344

Professor: Greg Marfleet

Willis 413

(507) 646-4116

Office Hours:

Tuesday 1:00 – 3:00

Monday & Wednesday

11:15 to 12:45

(Figure from Joshua Epstien’s Agent-based Model of Genocide)

Theories of complexity and emergence relate to how large-scale collective properties and characteristics of a system can arise from the behavior and attributes of component parts. This course explores the relevance of these concepts, studied mainly in physics and biology, for the social sciences.

Readings and seminar discussion topics may include conflict and cooperation in international and sub-national environments, electoral competition, cross-cultural contact and the transmission of cultural traits, models of group interactions and decision making and social networks

Over the term we will experientially explore agent-based modeling to discover emergent properties of social systems through computer simulations created using NetLogo software. A series of workshops will build the requisite skills to complete the programming project which constitutes the main graded assignment for the class.

This course is organized in a combination seminar/workshop format. Each meeting will begin with a discussion of the listed readings. Students will be assigned roles as discussants and will be asked to generate 3 or 4 discussion questions per reading. For the second half of the class we will shift our focus to NetLogo programming. On Mondays we will discuss assignments that are ‘in progress’ and you can raise any questions or problems you are having. On Wednesday I will ask student to briefly present their finished models for that assignment. If possible I will arrange to hold a few session in a multi-user computer lab to facilitate group brainstorming and “on the fly” code revisions.

Resources

Books

  • Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation. PrincetonUniversity Press: PrincetonNJ.
  • Schelling, Thomas C. 1978. Micromotives and Macrobehavtior. Norton: New York.
  • Cederman, Lars-Eric. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. PrincetonUniversity Press: PrincetonNJ.

Articles

Articles listed below are (mostly) availablein adobe.pdf format (some are in html) and have been placed in the Collab Course Materials folder for this course. Others are on J-stor. The few that arenot in electronic form already will be made available at the library reserve desk or on e-reserves.

One very useful resource for research on agent based modeling in the social sciences is JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation at Although some of the studies are quite technical, you may find the journal helpful as you search for modeling ideas.

Collab

The Collab course materials and common folders for POSC 330 will serve as resource depots for the class. Students may chose to post their code solutions in the common folder and I will make coding examples available as well. Keep your eye on these important folders throughout the term.

Grading Scheme

ComponentPts

Participation in Seminar (includes discussion question

Preparation when required)200

Workshop Assignments (Weeks 1 to 5) 75 pts each 375

Model Proposal Paper (due Wednesday of Week 6) 150

Workshop Assignments (Weeks 7, 8, 9) 25 pts each)75

Final Project (including Presentation due 11/19)200

Total1000

Participation in Seminar

Participation in and preparation for seminar discussion is a large component of your grade. For each session of class I will ask for volunteers to act as reading discussion leaders. Each leader should prepare 3-4 discussion questions that relate to his/her assigned readings. These questions must be submitted to the instructor either in physical or electronic form on Monday. Other students should read the material and come prepared to engage in a discussion centered on the questions generated by their peers. I will be monitoring each student’s involvement and preparation for seminar over the term and these observations and the submitted question sheets will be considered in assigning your participation grade.

Assignments

Modeling workshop assignments are assigned weekly and will be due on Wednesday of each week. However, please donot leave your coding until Tuesday night! The second half of each Monday sessions will focus on your work ‘in progress’ as it pertains to the week’s assignment. These sessions that will allow you to show us your work so far, ask questions and get feedback from the instructor and your peers before the assignment is due! The more you have done on Monday the better your projects will turn out. Please not that unless arrangements are made with the instructor prior to the due date, late assignments, papers and projects will be penalized 5 points per day to a maximum of 50% of the possible points. It is important that we all stay on schedule with our modeling projects to maximize the benefits of peer interaction.

Week 1 Introduction to Complexity and the Social Sciences

Modeling Assignment 1:

NetLogo is an agent based modeling tool that is freely available for education purposes. Download and install NetLogo 2.1 from

Complete tutorial #1 in the NetLogo manual andcomplete the steps in “Turtle Epidemic A NetLogo Simulation Activity “ (Balzano,2002) (in the collab folder for week 1).

IMPORTANT NOTE: Store the code you create in your Collab student work space FOR THIS CLASS (call it myname_1.nlogo where ‘myname’ is your last name). Please don’t store your assignment code on your personal Collab home foldersince that folder won’t be available in class unless we continuously log off and on the classroom PC (and reinstall NetLogo each time!) or in the Common class folder (unless you want everyone to have access).

Readings:

Monday:

  • Jervis, Robert. 1998. “Complexity and the Analysis of Political and Social Life.” Political Science Quarterly 122, 4 : 569-93.
  • Hamman, Henry (1998) “Remodeling International Relations: New Tools from New Science” Chapter 8 in International Relations in a Constructed World, Kubalkova, Onuf and Kowert Eds. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.

Wednesday:

  • Axelrod, The Complexity of Cooperation.Introduction.
  • Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehavior. Chapter 1
  • Lansing, Stephen J. 2002. “’Artificial societies’ and the social sciences”, Artificial Life, v.8 n.3, p.279-292, 2002. (check out the daisy world model in collab)

Week 2 Agent-Based Models and Complex Adaptive Systems.

Modeling Assignment 2

Complete tutorial #2 from the Netlogo Manual and complete the steps in “A Standing Ovation”. Store the code you create in your Collab student work space FOR THIS CLASS (again call it myname_2.nlogo).

Readings

Monday:

  • Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehavior. Chapter 3, 4 and 5 (also 2?).
  • Rauch, Jonathan. 2002. “Seeing Around Corners.” The Atlantic Monthly, April.
  • Axtell, Robert (2000). “Why Agents? On the Varied Motivations for Agent Computing in the Social Sciences.” Brookings Institute CSED Working Paper #17
    (check out the Segregation and Sugar Scape Models on Collab)

Wednesday:

  • John H. Miller and Scott E. Page (2004) “The Standing Ovation Problem” Complexity, 9, 5, pp 8-16.
  • Macy, Michael W. and Robert Willer. 2002. From Factors to Actors: Computational Sociology and Agent Based Modeling. Annual Review of Sociology. 28: 143-166.

Week 3 Adaptive Agents: Evolutionary Games and Genetic Algorithms

Modeling Assignment 3

Complete tutorial #3 from the Netlogo Manual. Because the complete code for this tutorial is already in the guide and models library, your challenge for this assignment is to somehow ‘take things a step beyond’ the basic tutorial. This could include investigating other peak finding algorithms, changing the vision range of agents or, in keeping with the readings, figuring out a way to have the agents evolve to get better at climbing hills (death, reproduction, etc) Bring your ideas to class on Monday. Store the code you create in your Collab student work space FOR THIS CLASS (call it myname_3 where ‘myname’ is your last name).

Readings

Monday

  • Holland, John. 1992. “Complex Adaptive Systems.” Daedalus 121: 17-30.
  • Holland, John. 1992. “Genetic Algorithms.” Scientific American. July. pp. 66-72.
  • Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation. Chapter 1 & 2.

Wednesday

  • Joshua Epstein 2001 “Zones of Cooperation in Demographic Prisoner's Dilemma” Brookings Institute Working Paper.
  • Miller, John H.. 1996. “The Coevolution of Automata in the Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 29:1.
  • (check out the Moore Machine Example on Collab)

Week 4 Early Computer Simulations of World Politics

Modeling Assignment 4

Adapt an existing model. Select one of the models from the NetLogo Models library and alter it in some significant (but not necessarily profound) way. Save this model in your Collab student work space FOR THIS CLASS (as myname_4.nlogo) along with a brief note (.doc or txt file) describing what you did to change the model. We’ll run both the original and your adapted versions during class time.

Readings

Monday

  • Bremmer, Stuart A. and Micheal Mihalka. 1977. “Machiavelli in Machina: Or politics among Hexagons” in Karl Deutsch, Bruno Fritsch, Helio Jaguaribe and Andrei S. Markovits Problems of World Modeling: Political and Social Implications. Ballinger: Cambridge, MA. (e-reserve)
  • Stoll, Richard. 1987. “System and State in International Politics: A Computer Simulation of Balancing in an anarchic world”.International Studies Quarterly 31:4 (December 1987), pp. 387 402.
  • Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press (ch 1)

Wednesday

  • Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Princeton: PrincetonUniversity Press (ch 2- 4)

Week 5 Contemporary ABMModels of International Relations

Modeling Assignment 5

No coding required! Now that you’ve seen some examples, it is time to propose some model concepts. In a paper of not more than two pages compose briefoutlines for at least 3 ideas you have for an agent based model. Each outline should consider what/who the agents are, what attributes they might have, how they might interact, etc. Come prepared to share these ideas with the class. We’ll spend our time in small groups discussing and refining everyone’s ideas.

Readings

Monday

  • Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics.Ch 5 – 9.

Wednesday

  • Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation.New York: Chapters 4 and 6.
  • Cederman, Lars-Eric. 2003. “Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to Sandpiles” American Political Science Review. 97, 1:135-150. (check out the sandpiles model on Collab)
  • Simon, Marc and Harvey Starr. 1996. “Extraction, Allocation and the Rise and Decline of States: A simulation analysis of two-level security management” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40, 2: 272-297.

Week 6 Modeling Societies in Conflict

Modeling Paper Proposal (a.k.a. assignment 6)

Your modeling project Proposal is due Wednesday. In a paper of not more that 5 pages (typed double spaced 12 pt point font) describe the model you want to build. Your paper should begin with a brief introduction to the problem or substantive question you want to investigate. Some indication of the relevant social science theories or literature must be included (5 or 6 articles should suffice). You should also indicate the nature of the agents in the model, their characteristics and possible interactions. Finally, you should discuss what emergent properties of the model you wish to investigate. Is the model outcome or process focused? Are the agents individually adaptive or is change to be noted at the aggregate level? Are you looking for equilibria, tipping points or perpetually novel processes? Etc. This paper will eventually become part of the content of the ‘Information’ section of your completed model.

Readings

Monday No Class Mid-term Break

Wednesday

  • Lustick, Ian S., Dan Miodownick and Roy Eidelson. 2004. “Secessionism in Multicultural States: Does Sharing Power Prevent or Encourage It? American Political Science Review, 98, 2 pp: 209-229.
  • Bhavnani, Ravi and David Backer 2000. Localized Ethnic Conflict and Genocide: Accounting for Differences in Rwanda and Burundi. The Journal of Conflict Resolution. 44, 3: pp. 283-306
  • Epstein, Joshua M., John D. Steinbruner, Miles T. Parker 2001 “Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach” CSED Working Paper No. 20

Week 7 Social Networks, Movements and Institutions

Modeling Assignment 7

Workshop Session #1a/b. Show us the goods, so far. You should be prepared on either Monday or Wednesday to take the reigns of the class PC and run your current model on the big screen! Each student should (by Wednesday) submit their model as it currently stands AND include a VERY brief (one or two paragraph) summary of their coding progress (like a log entry) in a .txt. or .doc file. The log should tell me what’s new in this week’s code, describe any updated features and perhaps alert me to any problems that you’d like to discuss in class! I may try to run your model or look at code to give you feedback, but it is the log-file that will be graded.

Readings

Monday

  • M. Afzal Upal. 2005. Simulating the Emergence of New Religious Movements. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 8, no. 1
  • Raczynski, S. 2004. “Simulation of the Dynamic Interactions between Terror and Anti-Terror Organizational Structures.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulations 7,2.

Wednesday

  • Bhavani, R. 2003. “Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions and Civic Traditions in Modern Italy.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 6, no. 4.
  • Buckley, Jack and Scott Graves. 2001. Growing Congress: Using Agent-based Computational Modeling to Develop Theories of Legislative Behavior, Learning and Organization. Paper presented for the annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association
  • van der Veen, A. Maurits. 2002. The Emergence of a European Identity: Modeling International Experiences. Presented at the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting in Boston, MA.

Week 8Models of Norms, Cultures and Agent Behaviors

Modeling Assignment 8

Workshop Session #2a/b. Show us the goods. Remember to post your code and update your log file.

Readings

Monday

  • Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation.Chapters. 3, 5 & 7

Wednesday

  • Arthur, W. Brian. (1994). Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality. American Economic Review 84:406-411. (check out the El Farol bar model on Collab)
  • Matthew J. Hoffmann 2000. Exploring Norm Emergence and Evolution: An Investigation with Agent-Based Models. Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.
  • Bednar, Jenna and Scott Page, “Game(s) Theory and Culture.” see Jenna Bednar’s web site

Week 9 Making Choices:Electoral and Voting Models

Modeling Assignment 9

Workshop Session #3a/b. Show us the goods. Remember to post your code and update your log file.

Readings

Monday

  • Schelling Macromotives and Microbehavior Ch 6 & 7
  • Kollman, Ken, John Miller, and Scott Page. 1992. “Adaptive Parties and Spatial Elections.” American Political Science Review 86: 929-937.

Wednesday

  • Kollman, Ken, John Miller, and Scott Page. 1997. “Political Institutions and Sorting in a Tiebout Model.” American Economic Review 87: 977-92.
  • Kollman, Ken, John Miller, and Scott Page. 1998. “Political Parties and Electoral Landscapes.” British Journal of Political Science 28: 139-58.

Week 10 : Student Presentations

Our sessions on Monday and Wednesday will be devoted to viewing the (nearly) final version of the models you have been working on over the last few weeks. Roughly 5 students will present each day and each student will have 15-20 minutes to introduce, run and explore the model and answer questions from the class and the instructor. This presentation is an integral part of the final assignment grade. However you should view the session as a chance to get some last-minute feedback on your project before submitting the final product. The remainder of the final assignment grade will focus on the completed model including code and documentation.

Your final model should be stored in your student work folder for POSC 330 as “myname_final.nlogo”. In order to achieve a high grade on this assignment your code must be

  1. Complete, working and bug free (I shouldn’t be able to crash it by using the built-in features such as slider bars, buttons, menus, etc.).
  2. Any plotting features should be functional and informative. The overall interface should be well organized and not cluttered with unnecessary monitors that you included for diagnostic or debugging purposes.
  3. Your code must also be FULLY commented. Each named procedure should have some introductory comments as well as informational comments throughout so that a reader could follow the flow of the program.
  4. Attention should have been paid to creating meaningful variable and procedure names to ease code analysis.
  5. The sections in the ‘Information’ tab for your model should also be completed. Much of this may come from your earlier assignment but additional clarification and description of the fully working model will undoubtedly be required.

The final version of the code MUST be placed in your Collab-hand in folder no later than 5:00pm on Saturday November 19th (the first day of exams).