Civilians:
The Common Victim of Anti-State Violence
South Asia Security Report
By Manzoor Ahmad
Table of Contents
2Executive Summary
3Introduction
4Methodology
5An Overview of the Security in the Region
6The Regional Security Report
6.1Militancy in the Region
6.1.1Militant Assaults
6.1.2Bomb Blasts:
6.1.3Suicide Attacks:
6.1.4Target Killings:
6.2Security Forces Actions
6.2.1Air Raids
6.2.2Ground Operations:
6.2.3Others
7Country Report Afghanistan
7.1The Militant Activities
7.2Killings of Foreign Troops:
7.3The Security Forces Operations
8Country Report India
8.1Militant activities
8.2Security Forces Actions
8.3Kashmir – the Most Troubled Area in India
8.4Mutual Quarrels and Suicides of Security Forces Personnel:
9Country Report Pakistan
9.1Drone Attacks
9.2The Militant Activities
9.3Attacks on Religious Shrines
9.4The Security Forces Actions:
Executive Summary
A study conducted by the Conflict Monitoring Center –an Islamabad based independent research center- shows that militant activities against Pakistani security forces have become least effective. Majority of the victims of militant activities are now civilians. The study also shows that Pakistani security forces are most careful regarding civilian casualties in their counter-insurgency operations while the Indian security forces are least careful in this regard. Conflict Monitoring Center collected, processed, and analyzed statistics of anti-state and anti-government violence in three major states of South Asia i.e. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. According to the report, everyday 13 incidents of anti-state violence are reported in these three countries. Almost half of these violent incidents occur in Afghanistan while India sees more anti-stat violent incidents per day than Pakistan. The study is based on data of last quarter of the year 2010 (October-December 2010). The data is collected from mainstream national and international media. It shows that during the study period at least 1139 incidents of anti-state violence were reported in these three countries killing at least 3648 and injuring 2429 peoples. Out of these 1139 incidents, 522 were reported in Afghanistan, 335 in India and 282 in Pakistan. More than one thousand (1025) of those killed were civilians which constitutes 28 percent of total deaths. Most of the civilians (396) were killed in Afghanistan while 388 civilians were killed in Pakistan and 241 were killed in India.
In Pakistan 378 out of 288 civilians were killed by militants. Only four civilian deaths were reported in Pakistani security forces actions against militants. The statistics show that the ability of militants to target Pakistani security forces has fallen considerably. During the study period, the militants carried out 183 attacks and killed 573 people. They could kill only 77 security personals during these attacks while they lost 118 militants in retaliation by security forces. 378 of the 573 people killed in militant attacks were civilians. Previously suicide attacks were an effective weapon of militants against security forces but now the suicide attacks too are taking mostly civilian lives. The data shows that 96 percent of those killed in suicide attacks in Pakistan were civilians.
Suicide attacks were more lethal in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. In Afghanistan 23 suicide, attacks were reported during the last three months of 2010 killing 43. During the same period, militants carried out 12 suicide attacks in Pakistan killing as many as 265 people. It shows that in Afghanistan every suicide attack killed only two persons while in Pakistan every suicide attack killed 22 persons.
In India, more than 52 percent of reported deaths were civilians. This is the highest ratio of civilian fatalities in anti-state armed conflicts in the region. The ratio of civilian casualties in security forces operations is also highest in India. There were 249 people killed and more than two hundred others injured in 179 different militant activities in India during the last quarter of the year 2010. Two third (66.27 %) of the victims of these activities were civilians (165). The killings of security forces personnel (57) constitute about one fourth (22.89 %) of the total casualties in militancy. Approximately two third (63.13 %) of the militant activities (113) and (63.05 %) of consequent casualties were reported in the Eastern Region of the country. Slightly more than two third (70.06 %) of the victims of such activities in the region were civilians (110).
In about 156 different security forces actions, at least 213 persons were killed and more than three hundred others wounded in India during the reported period. Almost one half (52.58 %) of the victims of these actions were the militants (112). More than one third (35.68 %) of the victims of security forces actions in India are the civilians. As such, the ratio of killings of innocent people in the hands of forces is highest in India in the region. Approximately three fourth (72.44%) of the security forces actions (113) and about three fifth (59.15 %) of the deaths (126) in such actions have been reported in Kashmir. Hundreds of those wounded in security forces actions have also been reported in the area. The deaths of civilians constitute more than one half (53.97 %) of the total casualties in security forces actions in Indian held Kashmir. Indian forces time and again used brute force against the peaceful demonstrators killing several of them and inflicting injuries to hundreds others. They also killed three persons under their custody.
The myth that more people are killed in Pakistan than in Afghanistan in militancy proved untrue during the study. The study proves Afghanistan is the worst victim of anti-state violence in the region. 522 out of 1139 reported incidents of violence took place in Afghanistan. 55 percent of the combined deaths in three countries were reported in Afghanistan. Everyday about 22 (21.74) persons are killed and tens of others left wounded in war-torn Afghanistan. Everyday about six (5.67) incidents of armed conflicts are reported and each incident takes lives of four (3.83) persons in the country. There were at least 2000 people killed and more than eight hundred others left wounded in Afghanistan during the last quarter of the year 2010.
1Introduction
The Conflict Monitoring Center (CMC) – an Islamabad based independent research organization – has conducted a three months study on anti-state/anti-government insurgencies and counter-militancy campaigns in 3 major South Asian countries, i.e. Afghanistan, India and Pakistan. The report covers the incidents of violence took place, and reported in the mainstream national and international media during the last quarter (October – December) of the year 2010.
2Methodology
The study covered incidents of armed conflicts including militant activities and counter–militancy actions by the security forces in Afghanistan, India and Pakistan during the last three months (October – December) of the year 2010. Such incidents have been divided into two broad categories, i.e., security forces actions and militant activities. The former refers to the actions of armed forces, paramilitary forces, police etc. These actions have been further divided into air-raids, security forces operations (which include all ground operations including search and clearance operations), shelling, and others. The militant activities refer to all sorts of militant actions carried out by anti-state / anti-government elements against security forces, government machinery, and civilians. These activities have been further divided into assaults, bomb blasts, suicide attacks, and target killings. The data has been processed separately for each country and then province-wise / region–wise as well as attack-wise for each month.
3An Overview of the Security in the Region
The report shows that everyday some 40 persons are killed and more than 26 others left wounded in anti-statearmed conflicts and violence in South Asia. Out of them 22 are killed in Afghanistan, 5 in India and 13 in Pakistan. Almost 13 incidents of violence are reported every day and each incident takes lives of 3 persons in the region. Out of them, 6 incidents (5.67) are reported in Afghanistan, 4in India (3.64) and 3 in Pakistan. Each incident takes lives of about 4 persons each in Afghanistan and Pakistan whereas every three incidents take lives of four persons in India.In average, everyday 2 coalition troops are killed in Afghanistan whereas 3 people are killed in drone attacks in Pakistan. Every fourth person killed in armed conflict in Pakistan is targeted in a drone attack. About every second day of the last quarter of the year 2010 saw a drone attack in Pakistan and each attack killed 6 people.
Slightly over one fourth (28.1%) of the total victims in anti-state violence are civilians, including women and children. The deaths of the alleged militants constitute more than one half (55.7%) of the total casualties. The fatalities of those performing security related duties form about one sixth (16.2 %) of the total killings reported in the region.
Mostly civilians are killed by militants; however, a significant number of civilians are also killed by security forces during anti militancy campaigns. The ratio of civilian killings by security forces during anti-militancy campaigns is highest in India and lowest in Pakistan.
4The Regional Security Report
Thearmed conflicts, insurgency and counter-militancy campaigns took lives of at least 3648people and left thousands others woundedin South Asia during the last quarter (October – December) of the year 2010.[1]Approximately, each act of violence took life of a civilian. There were about1139 different incidents of violence killing at least 1025 civilians during the period. Afghanistan remained the worst victim of violence in all respects where two thousand people lost their lives in about 522 different incidents. The highest killings of civilians in the region(396) were also reported in Afghanistan which constitute about one fifth (19.8 %) of the total casualties in the country. Pakistan stands at number twoin terms of total casualties in the region.There were 282 acts of armed conflictsreported in Pakistankilling 1186 people. About one third (32.71 %) of the victims were civilians as388victims of armed conflictsin the countrywere non-combatant ordinary people. In Pakistan, 378 or 97.42% of the civilians lost their lives in the hands of the militants.In India, higher numbers of acts of violence but fewer casualties than Pakistan were reported during the period.At least 462 people were killed in 335 different incidents of violence in India.However,the ratio of civilian fatalities to total casualties in a countryhas been highest in India, i.e.52.16 %.About one third (31.54 %), i.e. 76 out of 241 civilian victims, were killed by Indian security forces. The country-wise details of the casualties are given below:
COUNTRY-WISE DETAILS OF TOTAL CASUALTIES IN SOUTH ASIA (OCT. – DEC. 2010)S.# / Country name / No. of
Attacks / Killed / Injured
SFP* / M** / C*** / Total / SFP / M / C / Total
1. / AFGANISTAN / 522 / 431 / 1173 / 396 / 2000 / 254 / 187 / 432 / 873
2. / INDIA / 335 / 82 / 139 / 241 / 462 / 97 / 6 / 397 / 500
3. / PAKISTAN / 282 / 78 / 720 / 388 / 1186 / 116 / 192 / 748 / 1056
GRAND TOTAL / 1139 / 591 / 2032 / 1025 / 3648 / 467 / 385 / 1577 / 2429
*SFP= Security Forces Personnel; **M=Militants; ***C= Civilians
4.1Militancy in the Region
The study suggests that almost half of the victims of armed conflictsduring the reported period were killed in militant activities, i.e. 1832 out of 3648. Most (43.56 %) of the victimsofmilitants’ attacks were civilians (798). The highest number of civilian casualties (378) in militant activities were reported in Pakistan which constitute about 65.97 % (two third) of the total victims (573) in the country. However, the highest numbers of people reportedly killed in militant activities were in Afghanistan, i.e. 1010. The civilian victims (255) constitute one-fourth (25.25 %) of the total casualties in the country.In India, 165 out of 249deathswere reportedly civilians. It constitutes two third(66.27 %)of the total casualties in militant activities in the country.In the region as a whole, more than one quarter(29.31 %)of the victims of the militancy were people performing security related duties (537). Out of them 403 were killed in Afghanistan, 77 in Pakistan and 57 in India. About 497 militant were also killed in retaliation by the security forces in the region. It forms slightly over one fourth (27.13%) of the total victims of militancy in South Asia. The percentage of deaths of militants in such activities is highest (34.85 %) in Afghanistan followed by Pakistan(20.59 %) and lowest in India, i.e., 10.84 % only.The complete breakup of militant activities and ensuing fatalities in three countries of South Asia during the period is given below:
COUNTRY-WISE DETAILS OF CASUALTIES IN MILITANT ACTIVITIES (OCT. – DEC. 2010)S.# / Country name / No. of
Attacks / Killed / Injured
SFP / M / C / Total / SFP / M / C / Total
1. / AFGANISTAN / 358 / 403 / 352 / 255 / 1010 / 243 / 79 / 418 / 740
2. / INDIA / 179 / 57 / 27 / 165 / 249 / 78 / 3 / 141 / 222
3. / PAKISTAN / 183 / 77 / 118 / 378 / 573 / 111 / 38 / 730 / 879
GRAND TOTAL / 720 / 537 / 497 / 798 / 1832 / 432 / 120 / 1289 / 1841
4.1.1Militant Assaults
Most (46.56 %) of people killed in militant activities were targeted in assaults. The militants carried out 296 assaults killing 853 persons and leaving more than four hundred others wounded. The highest number of assaults (146) and resultant casualties (550) were reported in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, 179 persons were killed in 67 different assaults, whereas 124 people lost their lives in India in 83 assaults. In average, each assault killed about 4 (3.77) persons in Afghanistan, 3 (2.67) in Pakistan and two assaults killed 3 persons in India. The breakup of the militant assaults in the three states is given below:
COUNTRY-WIS E DETAILS OF CASUALTIES IN MILITANT ASSAULTS (OCT. – DEC. 2010)S.# / Country name / No. of
Attacks / Killed / Injured
SFP / M / C / Total / SFP / M / C / Total
1. / AFGANISTAN / 146 / 218 / 302 / 30 / 550 / 118 / 65 / 72 / 255
2. / INDIA / 83 / 29 / 20 / 75 / 124 / 22 / 3 / 29 / 54
3. / PAKISTAN / 67 / 39 / 96 / 44 / 179 / 37 / 36 / 59 / 132
GRAND TOTAL / 296 / 286 / 418 / 149 / 853 / 177 / 104 / 160 / 441
4.1.2Bomb Blasts:
The bomb blasts were the most frequent tool used by the militants. There were 283 bomb blasts reported in the region during the last quarter of the year killing 496 persons and leaving more than six hundred other wounded. About three fifth (59.36%) of the total bomb blasts in the region were reported in Afghanistan where 391 people lost their lives in 168 different incidents. In Pakistan, 55 people were killed and 147 others left wounded in 65 bomb blasts. In India, 50 bomb blasts were reported killing 50 persons and inflicting injuries to 139 others. The civilians were the largest victims (242) of the bomb blasts constituting about one half (48.79%) of the total casualties in such incidents. Out of them, 81 % were killed in Afghanistan, 9.5 % each in India and Pakistan. The breakup of the bomb blasts and resultant fatalities is as under:
COUNTRY-WIS E DETAILS OF CASUALTIES IN BOMB BLASTS (OCT. – DEC. 2010)S.# / Country name / No. of
Attacks / Killed / Injured
SFP / M / C / Total / SFP / M / C / Total
1. / AFGANISTAN / 168 / 160 / 35 / 196 / 391 / 86 / 10 / 266 / 362
2. / INDIA / 50 / 26 / 1 / 23 / 50 / 41 / 0 / 98 / 139
3. / PAKISTAN / 65 / 23 / 9 / 23 / 55 / 60 / 2 / 85 / 147
GRAND TOTAL / 283 / 209 / 45 / 242 / 496 / 187 / 12 / 449 / 648
4.1.3Suicide Attacks:
The militants carried out 35 suicide attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan killing at least 308 persons and inflicting injuries to 700 others. No such attack was reported in India. About two third (65.71%) of the suicide attacks were reported in Afghanistan killing only 43 persons, i.e. about 14 % of the total casualties in such incidents. It means suicide attacks in Afghanistan were not as lethal as in Pakistan wherein 12 suicide attacks, 265 persons were killed and 592 others injured. As such, each suicide attack took lives of 22 people and left 49 others wounded in Pakistan. In Afghanistan, in average only two persons were killed and about five others left wounded in each suicide attack.
Almost four fifth (84.42%) of the victims of the suicide attacks have been civilians (260). This ratio is even further higher (93.96%) in Pakistan where 249 out of 265 deaths in suicide attacks were reportedly civilians. In Pakistan, 578 out of 592 persons sustaining injuries (97.63%) in such incidents were also the civilians. The suicide attacks also took lives of 27 security forces personnel, i.e. 18 in Afghanistan and 9 in Pakistan. The breakup of the suicide attacks and ensuing casualties is given below:
COUNTRY-WIS E DETAILS OF CASUALTIES IN SUICIDE ATTACKS (OCT. – DEC. 2010)S.# / Country name / No. of
Attacks / Killed / Injured
SFP / C / Total / SFP / M / C / Total
1. / AFGANISTAN / 23 / 18 / 11 / 43 / 37 / 0 / 71 / 108
2. / INDIA / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
3. / PAKISTAN / 12 / 9 / 249 / 265 / 14 / 0 / 578 / 592
GRAND TOTAL / 35 / 27 / 260 / 308 / 51 / 0 / 649 / 700
4.1.4Target Killings:
The militants also launched a campaign of target killings in three states during the reported period. In some 93such incidents, 160 people were killed and 19 others left wounded.Thehighest numbers of incidents of target killings (40) and resultant casualties (69) were reported in India, followed by Pakistan where 67 persons were killed in 36 different incidents. In Afghanistan, 17 incidents of target killings and 24 consequent fatalities were reported.
Almost nine tenth (88.75 %) of the victims of target killings were the civilians (142).The civilians casualties constitute about three fourth (75 %) of the total victims of target killings in Afghanistan,96.66 % in India and 86.57 % in Pakistan. In several cases, the pro-government elements perceived as enemies by the militants or suspected security forces spies were targeted. The breakup of incidents of target killings and resultant fatalities is given below:
COUNTRY-WIS E DETAILS OF CASUALTIES IN TARGET KILLINGS (OCT. – DEC. 2010)S.# / Country name / No. of
Attacks / Killed / Injured
SFP / M / C / Total / SFP / M / C / Total
1. / AFGANISTAN / 17 / 5 / 1 / 18 / 24 / 0 / 4 / 5 / 9
2. / INDIA / 40 / 1 / 2 / 66 / 69 / 1 / 0 / 1 / 2
3. / PAKISTAN / 36 / 6 / 3 / 58 / 67 / 0 / 0 / 8 / 8
GRAND TOTAL / 93 / 12 / 6 / 142 / 160 / 1 / 4 / 14 / 19
4.2Security Forces Actions
Almost half of the victims(1816) of armed conflicts in South Asia lost their lives in security forces actions (which also includes US drone attacks). Onlya single drone attack was also reported in Afghanistan (Helmand) during the reported period that killed a militant and his 03 family members (civilians).The campaign, however, exclusively targeted the northwestern part or the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. The drone attacks have been both cause and effect of the militancy in Pakistan. They are apparently aimed to root out militancy from the tribal belt but they also generate reactionary sentiments and promotemilitancy in Pakistan. These attacks are carried out by pilotless planes operated by the Special Activities Division of the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). During the last quarter of the year 2010, CIA carried out 52 drone attacks killing 314 persons in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in North West of Pakistan.
At least 1502 people were killed in air raids, ground operations, shelling etc by the security forces (including ISAF and NATO troops in Afghanistan). The largest (81.69 %) victimsof such actions were alleged militants (1227). Most ofthe militants (821)were killed in Afghanistan, followed by Pakistan (294) and lowest in India (112). The percentage of deaths of militants in security forces actions remained highest in Pakistan (98.33%) followed byAfghanistan(82.93 %) and India (52.58 %). At least 54 security forcespersonnel also lost their lives in counter–militancy activities. It is just 3.56 % of the total casualties in security forces actions. However, it was comparatively higher in India (11.74 %)as compared to 2.83 % in Afghanistan and just 0.33% in Pakistan.