Changewave Research: Consumer Tablet, PC and Ultrabook Demand Trends
ChangeWave Research: Consumer Tablet, PC and Ultrabook Demand Trends
Consumer Tablet, PC and Ultrabook DemandTrends
Flurry of NewTablet and Laptop Offerings Changing the Landscape
Paul Carton and Andy Golub
Overview:The tablet and PC landscapes are changing dramatically. First, after owning the tablet space since the original iPad launch, Apple now faces a flurry of more competitive tablet offerings from the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Samsung, and others.
At the same time, the PC industry is hoping Microsoft’s new Windows 8 operating system can help spur holiday laptop and desktop sales.
This report focuses on consumer tablet and PC demand for the all-important holiday season, along with planned purchases of Ultrabooks. A total of 2,797primarily North American consumers participated in the October 30 – November 15 survey. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.
Surge in Consumer Tablet Demand
A total of 13% of respondents plan on buying a tablet in the next 90 days, more than double the level of three months ago (Aug ’12).
The holiday shopping season is helping drive this surge – as are a slew of new tablet releases. Even so, some of the new tablets were launched during the peak of the U.S. election season and hurricane Sandy – two disruptive events which may have had a short-term dampening effect on demand.
Leading Tablet Manufacturers.Apple still towers above the rest of the tablet competition, with two-in-three planned buyers over the next 90 days (67%) saying they’ll purchase an iPad.
(FOR THOSE BUYING A TABLET DEVICE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS) Who is the manufacturer and what tablet device are you planning on buying?
While this is a 2-pt uptick for Apple since our August survey – it’s not as strong of a surge as Apple has previously seen upon the release of a new iPad.
One possible reason is it's been only seven months since the last iPad release,as opposed to the 12 month cycle we've seen previously. Secondly, the maturing tablet market is a lot more competitive today than it was one or two years ago. Other manufacturers, in combination, are chipping away at Apple’s dominance, including:
- Amazon (11%; up 8-pts), which has seen a major surge since August (more than tripling) driven by the launch of their Kindle Fire HD releases. The Kindle Fire HD 8.9” Wi-Fi Only model (37%) appears most in demand, followed by the Fire HD 7" (34%).
- Microsoft Surface (8%; up 1-pt). By a 4-to-1 margin, planned buyers prefer the soon-to-be-released Surface Pro (81%; expected by Jan 2013) over the Surface RT (19%).
- Samsung tablets (6%; down 3-pts). Among Samsung planned tablet buyers, the Galaxy Tab 2 10” (35%) appears most popular, followed by the Galaxy Note Tablet 10” (29%).
- Google Nexus (7%; down 5-pts). While planned buying is down from our previous survey, the Nexus 10 should provide a welcome boost for Google.
Among the two-in-three planned buyers who say they’ll purchase an iPad, 43% are opting for the 4th generation iPad with Retina displayand37% the iPad mini.
Operating Systems.One-in-two planned buyers (51%) say they’d most prefer their tablet to run on Apple’s iOS. Another 17% prefer Android, while 14% prefer the new Windows 8 operating systems from Microsoft (11% Pro; 3% RT).
*Don't Know/Other = 17%
Bottom Line.For two and a half years Apple has enjoyed near total domination of the tablet market – but the competitive landscape is changing. Several new devices from Amazon, Microsoft, Samsung and Google – in combination – are posing a competitive threat to Apple’s overwhelmingdominance, and some are priced at significantly lower levels.
In response Apple recently launched the iPad mini and its 4th generation iPad. Importantly, customer satisfaction levels have historically played a huge role in terms of sustaining future demand – and Apple has led the industry by a wide margin in this area. In a follow-up December report, we'll take a close-up look at the latest tablet satisfaction ratings for Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Samsung and Google.
TheChangeWave survey also looked at PC and Ultrabook demand trends.
Consumer PC Demand – Next 90 Days
The PC industry is hopingMicrosoft’s new Windows 8 operating system helps spur holiday sales – but how doesconsumer PC demand look in our latest survey?
Nearly 1-in-10 respondents (9%) say they plan on buying a laptop in the next 90 days – up 1-pt from August and tied with the level of a year ago.
Desktop demand (5%) is down from August but remains slightly higher than a year ago.
We also asked planned PC buyers who are purchasing in the next 90 days which operating system they’dlike installedon their computer. Nearly halfsay they’ll choose a Windows 8 version (29% Windows 8, 18% Windows 8 Pro, 2% Windows 8 RT).
In comparison, 21% say they prefer Windows 7.
The Apple Mac OS X Mountain Lion is preferred by 28% of planned buyers.
Similarly, when we asked all respondents about their likelihood of using Windows 8 in the future, half (48%) said that the next computer they buy will use the new OS (23% Very Likely; 25% Somewhat Likely).
Individual PC Manufacturers
Customer Satisfaction.Among respondents who bought a computer in the past six months, Apple continues tohandily outperformin terms of customer satisfaction.
Better than 4-in-5 recent Mac buyers say they’re Very Satisfied (83%) with their computer.
Lenovo (68%) ranks second in satisfaction, followed by Samsung (61%).
PC Manufacturer Demand – Next 90 Days
Apple.Nearly a third of laptop buyers (32%;down 1-pt) and 31% of desktop buyers (up 2-pts) say they’ll purchase a Mac in the next 90 days – encouraging numbers for Apple considering the Windows 8 rollout is now underway.
The MacBook Pro (43%; down 4-pts) remains the most popular among planned buyers, but the recently refreshed iMac (22%) and Mac mini (10%) are both up 4-pts since August. (The iMac all-in-one desktop and Mac minifeature third generation Intel Core processors, improved graphics and Thunderbolt technology, among other things.)
Lenovo.Demand for Lenovo is surging, with 16% of planned computer buyers saying they’ll purchase a Lenovo laptop and 9% a desktop – each up 5-ptssince August. Note that Lenovo appears to be an early beneficiary of the Windows 8 release, offering a wide spectrum of new desktops, laptops, Ultrabooks and tablets.
Dell. Dell continues to show modest improvements in consumer laptop buying (21%; up 2-pts),but its desktop buying (26%) has slipped 1-pt since previously. The next couple of quarters will be crucial for Dell as it attempts to leverage the Windows 8 release to rejuvenate sales.
Hewlett-Packard.Demand for Hewlett-Packard desktops (19%) and laptops (15%) remains unchanged from the depressed levels seen in our previous survey. We note that approximately 60% of H-P’s sales come from outside the U.S., whereas ChangeWave surveys focus primarily on the North American market.
Consumer Ultrabooks: Future Demand
Ultrabooks,a growing segment of the computer industry,is showing a 1-pt uptick in planned buying, with 7% of respondents saying they’ll get one in the future.
Dell (22%; down 5-pts) is currently the leading manufacturer among planned Ultrabook buyers that know which model they'll purchase, but Samsung (18%) is closing the gap – jumping 6-pts since the previous survey.
Who is the manufacturer of the new Ultrabook computer you plan on buying?
Current Survey Nov ‘12 / PreviousSurvey
Aug ‘12
Dell (e.g., Inspiron 15z, XPS 14) / 22% / 27%
Samsung (e.g., Series 9, Series 5) / 18% / 12%
Hewlett-Packard (e.g., Folio, Envy, Spectre XT) / 18% / 14%
Lenovo (e.g., Thinkpad T430U, IdeaPad U410) / 17% / 16%
ASUS (e.g., Zenbook) / 8% / 16%
Sony (e.g. VAIO T Series, Duo 11) / 6% / NA
Acer (e.g., Aspire S7) / 5% / 3%
Toshiba (e.g., Satellite U845W, Portégé Z935) / 4% / 8%
Ultrabook Customer Satisfaction.We also asked respondents who purchased an Ultrabook in the past six months how satisfied they are with their device, and found 41% saying they are Very Satisfied and 34% Somewhat Satisfied.
*Don't Know/NA = 7%
Summary of Key Findings
The ChangeWave Research Networkis a group of 25,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries—credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change. ChangeWave surveys its Alliance members on a range of business and investment research and intelligence topics, collects feedback from them electronically, and converts the information into proprietary quantitative and qualitative reports.
Table of Contents
Summary of Key Findings...... 7
The Findings...... 9
Consumer Tablet Demand – Next 90 Days...... 9
Other Tablet Trends...... 12
Consumer Ultrabooks: Future Demand...... 16
Consumer PC Demand – Next 90 Days...... 17
ChangeWave Research Methodology...... 23
About ChangeWave Research...... 23
About 451 Research...... 23
I. The Findings
Introduction:The tablet and PC landscapes are changing dramatically. First, after owning the tablet space since the original iPad launch, Apple now faces a flurry of more competitive tablet offerings from the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Samsung, and others.
At the same time, the PC industry is hoping Microsoft’s new Windows 8 operating system can help spur holiday laptop and desktop sales.
This report focuses on consumer tablet and PC demand for the all-important holiday season, along with planned purchases of Ultrabooks. A total of 2,797primarily North American consumers participated in the October 30 – November 15 survey. ChangeWave Research is a service of 451 Research.
Surge in Consumer Tablet Demand
A total of 13% of respondents plan on buying a tablet in the next 90 days, more than double the level of three months ago (Aug ’12).
The holiday shopping season is helping drive this surge – as are a slew of new tablet releases. Even so, some of the new tablets were launched during the peak of the U.S. election season and hurricane Sandy – two disruptive events which may have had a short-term dampening effect on demand.
Leading Tablet Manufacturers.Apple still towers above the rest of the tablet competition, with two-in-three planned buyers over the next 90 days (67%) saying they’ll purchase an iPad.
(FOR THOSE BUYING A TABLET DEVICE IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS) Who is the manufacturer and what tablet device are you planning on buying?
Current Survey Nov ‘12 / PreviousSurvey
Aug ‘12
Apple (e.g., iPad, iPad 2) / 67% / 65%
Amazon (e.g., Kindle Fire) / 11% / 3%
Microsoft (e.g., Surface) / 8% / 7%
Google (e.g., Nexus 7) / 7% / 12%
Samsung (e.g., Galaxy Tab) / 6% / 9%
Asus (e.g., Eee Pad, Eee Slate) / 1% / 2%
Barnes & Noble (e.g., Nook Tablet) / 1% / 0%
RIM/BlackBerry (e.g., Playbook) / 0% / 1%
While this is a 2-pt uptick for Apple since our August survey – it’s not as strong of a surge as Apple has previously seen upon the release of a new iPad.
One possible reason is it's been only seven months since the last iPad release,as opposed to the 12 month cycle we've seen previously. Secondly, the maturing tablet market is a lot more competitive today than it was one or two years ago. Other manufacturers, in combination, are chipping away at Apple’s dominance, including:
- Amazon (11%; up 8-pts), which has seen a major surge since August (more than tripling) driven by the launch of their Kindle Fire HD releases. The Kindle Fire HD 8.9” Wi-Fi Only model (37%) appears most in demand, followed by the Fire HD 7" (34%).
- Microsoft Surface (8%; up 1-pt). By a 4-to-1 margin, planned buyers prefer the soon-to-be-released Surface Pro (81%; expected by Jan 2013) over the Surface RT (19%).
- Samsung tablets (6%; down 3-pts). Among Samsung planned tablet buyers, the Galaxy Tab 2 10” (35%) appears most popular, followed by the Galaxy Note Tablet 10” (29%)
- Google Nexus (7%; down 5-pts). While planned buying is down from our previous survey, the Nexus 10 should provide a welcome boost for Google.
Among the two-in-three planned buyers who say they’ll purchase an iPad, 43% are opting for the 4th generation iPad with Retina display and 37% the iPad mini.
For those planning to buy an Apple iPad in the future, which iPad version are you most interested in buying?
Current Survey Nov ‘1216GB Wi-Fi-only iPad mini 7-inch (Cost $329) / 13%
32GB Wi-Fi-only iPad mini 7-inch (Cost $429) / 9%
64GB Wi-Fi-only iPad mini 7-inch (Cost $529) / 3%
16GB Wi-Fi + Cellular iPad mini 7-inch (Cost $459) / 4%
32GB Wi-Fi + Cellular iPad mini 7-inch (Cost $559) / 5%
64GB Wi-Fi + Cellular iPad mini 7-inch (Cost $659) / 3%
16GB Wi-Fi-only iPad ‘4’ with Retina Display ($499) / 8%
32GB Wi-Fi-only iPad ‘4’ with Retina Display ($599) / 9%
64GB Wi-Fi-only iPad ‘4’ with Retina Display ($699) / 6%
16GB Wi-Fi + Cellular iPad ‘4’ with Retina Display ($629) / 4%
32GB Wi-Fi + Cellular iPad ‘4’ with Retina Display ($729) / 6%
64GB Wi-Fi + Cellular iPad ‘4’ with Retina Display ($829) / 10%
16GB Wi-Fi-only iPad 2 ($399) / 2%
16GB Wi-Fi + 3G iPad 2 ($529) / 0%
Don't Know / 17%
Not Applicable / 1%
And for those planning to buy an Apple iPad, will you be reselling/trading in a previously-owned iPad?
Current Survey Nov ‘12Yes / 6%
No / 64%
Don’t Know/NA / 31%
Operating Systems.One-in-two planned buyers (51%) say they’d most prefer their tablet to run on Apple’s iOS. Another 17% prefer Android, while 14% prefer the new Windows 8 operating systems from Microsoft (11% Pro; 3% RT).
Which mobile OS (operating system) would you most prefer to have on the Tablet you plan on buying?
*Don't Know/Other = 17%
Current Survey Nov ‘12iOS (Apple) / 51%
Android (Google) / 17%
Windows 8 Pro (Microsoft) / 11%
Windows 8 RT (Microsoft) / 3%
Windows 7 (Microsoft) / 1%
BlackBerry Tablet OS (RIM) / 0%
Don't Know / 16%
Other / 1%
Wireless Providers.Less than a third of planned tablet buyers (31%) say they’ll be using Wi-Fi only models – the lowest level in the past five surveys and likely due to the growing popularity of new shared mobile data plans from Verizon and AT&T. Another 22% say they’ll use Verizon and 18% AT&T.
Which wireless service provider - if any - will you use for your new tablet device?
Current Survey Nov ‘12 / Previous Survey Aug ‘12 / Previous Survey May ‘12 / PreviousSurvey
Feb ‘12 / Previous Survey Nov ‘11
None (Wi-Fi Only) / 31% / 34% / 36% / 33% / 35%
Verizon Wireless / 22% / 22% / 22% / 20% / 22%
AT&T / 18% / 15% / 16% / 17% / 15%
Sprint / 5% / 3% / 3% / 3% / 3%
T-Mobile / 2% / 1% / 2% / 2% / 1%
Don’t Know / 14% / 16% / 14% / 18% / 17%
Other / 7% / 6% / 7% / 3% / 3%
Consumer PC Demand – Next 90 Days
The PC industry is hoping Microsoft’s new Windows 8 operating system helps spur holiday sales – but how doesconsumer PC demand look in our latest survey?
Nearly 1-in-10 respondents (9%) say they plan on buying a laptop in the next 90 days – up 1-pt from August and tied with the level of a year ago.
Desktop demand (5%) is down from August but remains slightly higher than a year ago.
Will you be buying a computer in the next 90 days?
We also asked planned PC buyers who are purchasing in the next 90 days which operating system they’dlike installedon their computer. Nearly half say they’ll choose a Windows 8 version (29% Windows 8, 18% Windows 8 Pro, 2% Windows 8 RT).
In comparison, 21% say they prefer Windows 7.
The Apple Mac OS X Mountain Lion is preferred by 28% of planned buyers.
Which operating system would you like to have preinstalled on the computer(s) you plan on buying in the next 90 days? (Check All That Apply)
Current Survey Nov ‘12Windows 8 / 29%
Windows 8 Pro / 18%
Windows 8 RT / 2%
Windows 7 / 22%
Other Windows / 1%
Mac OS X Mountain Lion / 28%
Chrome OS / 4%
Linux / 1%
Don't Know / 10%
Other / 1%
Similarly, when we asked all respondents about their likelihood of using Windows 8 in the future, half (48%) said that the next computer they buy will use the new OS (23% Very Likely; 25% Somewhat Likely).
Microsoft recently released their new Windows 8 Operating System. How likely is it that the next computer you buy will have Windows 8 installed on it?
Current Survey Nov ‘12Very Likely / 23%
Somewhat Likely / 25%
Unlikely / 26%
Don’t Know/NA / 26%
Individual PC Manufacturers
Customer Satisfaction.Among respondents who bought a computer in the past six months, Apple continues to handily outperform in terms of customer satisfaction.
Better than 4-in-5 recent Mac buyers say they’re Very Satisfied (83%) with their computer.
Overall, how satisfied are you with the desktop or laptop computer(s) you purchased within the past 6 months? (Please Rate Only Those You've Purchased Within the Last 6 months.)
Very Satisfied / Somewhat Satisfied / Somewhat Unsatisfied / Very UnsatisfiedApple / 83% / 11% / 1% / 4%
Lenovo / 68% / 20% / 5% / 7%
Samsung / 61% / 26% / 6% / 7%
Hewlett-Packard / 58% / 32% / 4% / 6%
ASUS / 56% / 33% / 8% / 3%
Dell / 55% / 31% / 7% / 7%
Toshiba / 53% / 27% / 10% / 7%
Acer (including Gateway & eMachines / 44% / 41% / 7% / 7%
Lenovo (68%) ranks second in satisfaction, followed by Samsung (61%).
PC Manufacturer Demand – Next 90 Days
Apple.Nearly a third of laptop buyers (32%; down 1-pt) and 31% of desktop buyers (up 2-pts) say they’ll purchase a Mac in the next 90 days – encouraging numbers for Apple considering the Windows 8 rollout is now underway.
The MacBook Pro (43%; down 4-pts) remains the most popular among planned buyers, but the recently refreshed iMac (22%) and Mac mini (10%) are both up 4-pts since August. (The iMac all-in-one desktop and Mac minifeature third generation Intel Core processors, improved graphics and Thunderbolt technology, among other things.)
We note that the MacBook Air (19%; up 3-pts) has also increased since August.
Lenovo.Demand for Lenovo is surging, with 16% of planned computer buyers saying they’ll purchase a Lenovo laptop and 9% a desktop – each up 5-ptssince August. Note that Lenovo appears to be an early beneficiary of the Windows 8 release, offering a wide spectrum of new desktops, laptops, Ultrabooks and tablets.
Dell.Dell continues to show modest improvements in consumer laptop buying (21%; up 2-pts), but its desktop buying (26%) has slipped 1-pt since previously. The next couple of quarters will be crucial for Dell as it attempts to leverage the Windows 8 release to rejuvenate sales.