Campaigns and Elections in the United States

GO 251C

Ron SeybOffice Hours

Ladd 311M&W, 1:30-3:30

Ext. 5248Fall 2014

Course Description

American democracy is constructed on two propositions that are often referenced but rarely interrogated: (1) Popular elections are the principal mechanism by which the public both communicates its desires and demands to public officials and holds those officials accountable, and (2) Elections have policy consequences that reflect either continuity or change in the composition or the preferences of the electorate. Recent changes in campaign techniques, political attitudes, and voting behavior, however, have prompted political scientists to question even more directly than they have in the past whether American elections fairly reflect the people’s will. In particular, the combination of an increasingly polarized political class and the emergence of technologies and techniques for slicing the electorate thinner and thinner for the purpose of “microtargeting” have caused some scholars to suggest that even America’s supposedly quintessential “catch-all parties” have become nothing but vehicles for the more ideologically extreme activists of both parties to prosecute agendas with which many Americans disagree.

This course will examine both the properties and the consequences of campaigns and elections in the United States during an era of partisan polarization. It will, in particular, address (1) How changes in the two political parties have altered campaign strategy and election results and (2) What, if any, are the consequences of these changes for public policy and the performance of the American political system.

Course Goals

The course is designed to enable students to:

1. Assess the ways that partisan polarization affects electoral politics in the United States

2. Understand how journalistic and social scientific accounts of electoral politics differ

3. Learn both the value and limitations of data-driven examinations of electoral politics

4. Appreciate the various ways that elections have consequences

Course Requirements

A midterm examination administered on Friday, October 10 (30%)

An annotated bibliography containing at least seven (7) sources for your term paper due on Friday, September 26 (10%)

A 10-15 page term paper analyzing one of the pivotal 2014 Senate elections due on Friday, November 14 (30%)

An in-class final examination administered on Monday, December 15 from 1:30-4:30 PM in Ladd 307 (30%)

Attendance

You are allowed to miss four (4) classes. There are no excused absences. I do not grant excused absences for two reasons: (1) I have found that my ability to discriminate between a valid and an invalid reason for missing class rivals my ability to discriminate between the hairstyles of two members of One Direction and (2) Four absences allow you to miss over a week of class without incurring any penalty. If you can find a more generous attendance policy, then you clearly are Liam Nesson and no one has the nerve to tell you that you need to show up on set on time and that all the donuts do not belong to you. I will treat tardies as absences. I do often say significant things at the outset of class about readings, assignments, my explanation for Vince Vaughn’s enduring appeal, etc. It is hence important that you be present every MWF at 10:10 AM.

I will deduct 2% from your final grade for each absence you accrue over the 4 absence limit (e.g., a student who earns a cumulative score of “90” (A-) on the course assignments who compiles 5 absences will receive an “88” (B+) for the course).

If you reach four absences, I will send you an email alerting you that your next absence will cause me to deduct 2%from your course grade.

You should also keep in mind that according to the Academic Information Guide "any students who miss more than a third of the (class) sessions may expect to be barred from (the final examination). In such cases, the course grade will be recorded as F."

Laptops and Tablets

Laptops and tablets are not allowed in class. I do understand that this policy makes me more obsolete than the Court of Charlemagne (which was really never that hip). I also, however, understand the natural inclination (one that, by the way, I share) to check out Frank Caliendo’s Twitter during slack moments in the presentation. While I recognize that some of you may be unaccustomed to taking notes by hand, please trust me when I say that this is an important skill to learn, and not merely because you may not always have a laptop or tablet in your holster. There is an emerging consensus among scholars that taking notes by hand enhances recall and understanding of class material (see, for example, Robinson Meyer, “To Remember a Lecture Better, Take Notes by Hand, The Atlantic, May 1, 2014). Students who have a disability that precludes them from taking notes by hand must provide me with documentation testifying to their needs by the end of the second week of classes (i.e., Friday, September 12).

Cell and Smart Phones

I will not ask you to check your phone with my personal security detail. I know that the separation anxiety that arrives soon after you lose track of your phone is more acute than even that which Sophie felt after making her tragic choice. I will, however, ask that you turn off these devices during class. If I do see you texting in class, then I will write you an email following class urging you to desist for all of the reasons of which you are undoubtedly aware. If you repeat this offense, then I will ask you not to bring your phone to class. A third transgression will compel me, reluctantly, to deduct 5 points from your course grade. I will not entertain any challenges to my judgment that you are texting in class. Your most prudent course is thus to do nothing in class that could even cause me to think that you might be texting (i.e., do not try to execute the standard one hand under the desk, head cocked at a side angle, eyes downcast posture that is approved by no Reiki specialist with whom I am acquainted)

Books

The following books are available at The Skidmore Shop for less than it costs Mitch McConnell to get that turtle wax hard shell finish on his skin:

Zoltan J. Hajnal and Taeku Lee, Why Americans Don’t Join the Party

Sasha Issenberg, The Victory Lab

Karen M. Kaufmann, John R. Petrocik, and Darron R. Shaw, Unconventional Wisdom

John Sides and Lynn Vavreck, The Gamble

Important Note about The Hodges Harbrace Handbook

All Government majors are now required to own a copy of the of The Hodges Harbrace Handbook. While it would be ideal if you owned the most recent edition of this style guide (the 18th edition), you certainly can manage with an earlier edition in the same way that Tim Gunn can manage to be stylish even in a peacoat.

Weekly Topics and Reading Assignments

Note: An asterisk (*) denotes a reading available on Blackboard

Week 1 (September 3-5): American Campaigns and Elections in a Polarized Era

Readings: Kaufmann, et al., Chapter 3

*Alan Abramowitz and Kyle L. Saunders, “Is Polarization a Myth?” Journal of Politics (April 2008)

Week 2 (September 8-12): The Discreet Charm of Political Parties I

Readings: Kaufmann, et al., Chapter 2

Hajnal and Lee, Chapters 2 and 5

Week 3 (September 15-19): The Discreet Charm of Political Parties II: These Primary Colors Always Run

Readings: *Kathleen Bawn, et al., “A Theory of Political Parties: Groups, Policy Demands and Nominations in American Politics” Perspectives on Politics 10(3) (September 2012)

*Vanessa Williamson, et al., “The Tea Party and the Remaking of American Conservatism,” Perspectives on Politics 9(1) (March 2011)

Sides and Vavreck, Chapters 3 and 4

Week 4 (September 22-26): Is Everyone Hanging Out Without Me? The Loneliness of the Independent Voter

Readings: Kaufmann, et al., Chapter 4

Hajnal and Lee, Chapter 3

Annotated Bibliography Due (Must be Submitted by 5:00 PM)

Friday, September 26

Week 5 (September 29-October 3): Do Presidential Campaigns Matter?

Readings: Kaufmann, et al., Chapter 8

Sides and Vavreck, Chapters 1 and 5-7

Week 6 (October 6-10): The Turn toward Turnout I: The Two Electorates Thesis

Readings: *Sasha Issenberg, “The Science of Democratic Survival”

*Elizabeth Drew, “The Stranglehold on Our Politics”

Midterm Examination

Friday, October 10

Week 7 (October 13-17): The Turn toward Turnout II: The Red Pill Society

Readings: Issenberg, Chapters 1-4 and 7

Kaufmann, et al., Chapter 7

Week 8: (October 20-22): The Turn toward Turnout III: Base Politics in Congressional Elections

Readings: *Sam Wang, “The Great Gerrymander of 2012,” The New York Times, February 2, 2013

*John Sides and Eric McGhee, “Redistricting Didn’t Win Republicans the House,” The Washington Post, February 7, 2013

*Alan I. Abramowitz, “U.S. Senate Elections in a Polarized Era,” Chapter 2 of Alan I. Abramowitz, The U.S. Senate: From Deliberation to Dysfunction

Week 9 (October 27-31): Campaign Finance: The End of the Innocence?

Readings: *Michael S. Kang, “The End of Campaign Finance Law,” Virginia Law Review 98(1) (March 2012)

*Elizabeth Drew, “Can We Have a Democratic Election?” The New York Review of Books (February 23, 2012)

Week 10 (November 3-7): Political Advertising: Broadcasting in a Narrowcasting World

Readings: *Michael M. Franz and Travis N. Ridout, “Political Advertising and Persuasion in the 2004 and 2008 Presidential Elections,” American Politics Research 38 (2010)

*Travis Ridout, “It’s My Campaign and I’ll Cry If I Want To: How and When Campaigns Use Emotional Appeals,“ Political Psychology 32(3) (June 2011)

Week 11 (November 10-14): A Republic of Mediaists

Readings: *Markus Prior, “Media and Political Polarization,” Annual Review of Political Science 16 (2013)

*Gabriel Sherman, “The Last Campaign,” Chapter 22 of Gabriel Sherman, The Loudest Voice in the Room

Term Paper Due (Must be Submitted by 5:00 PM)

Friday, November 14

Week 12 (November 17-21): The Data Analytics Revolution: Turning the Micro into the Macro

Readings: *David W. Nickerson and Todd Rodgers, “Political Campaigns and Big Data,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(2) (Spring 2014)

Alexis C. Madrigal, “When the Nerds Go Marching In,” The Atlantic (November 16, 2012)

Issenberg, Chapter 6

Week 13 (November 24): Catch-Up

Readings: No Reading

Week 14 (December 1-5): Do Elections Matter?

Readings: *Zoltan Hajnal and Jeremy D. Horowitz, “Racial Winners and Losers in American Politics,” Perspectives on Politics 12(1) (March 2014)

*Jacob E. Gersen and Christopher R. Berry, “Voters, Non-Voters and the Implications of Election Timing for Public Policy,” John M. Olin Program in Law and Politics Working Paper, September 2010

Week 15 (December 8-10): Review for the Final Examination

Readings: No Readings

Final Examination

Monday, December 15, 1:30-4:30 PM, Ladd 307