Spots N Dots
The Daily News Of TV Sales
June 7, 2017
BROADCASTING’S NEAR TERM FUTURE OUTLOOK: STABLE
GROWTH, BUT NOT FROM AD SALES
Moody’s Investors Service forecasts the U.S. broadcast industry will remain stable over the next 18 months or so, despite softening ad demand.
Moody’s expects core ad sales to rise 1.6% over the next year. Broadcasting & Cable quotes Moody’s, saying the ‘cautious estimate’ reflects the expected displacement of core ads with political ads during the upcoming midterm elections; the ongoing loss of market share to digital media; a soft automotive market; and weak pacing during Q1 2017.
But a soft ad market will be mitigated by the growth of retransmission consent fees, which are expected to increase in the low teens over the next 12-18 months. Those fees will account for roughly 30% of broadcasters’ revenue.
PWC: MOBILE ROCKETING TO TOP
Digital will continue to be the driving force in the media industry, with mobile poised to overtake TV in overall spending within the next few years, according to a new forecast by PwC.
The forecast shows total internet ad revenue in the U.S. hit $72.5 billion in 2016, marking the first year that online ad spend surpassed TV revenue, which totaled $70.6 million. In 2017, PwC predicts internet advertising will reach $86.4 billion, while TV will be relatively flat at $70.98 billion.
By 2021, internet ad spend will hit $116.2 billion, with compound annual growth rate of nearly 10%. PwC also predicts that by 2021, mobile will account for about 75% of all internet advertising billings. “This, of course, follows the direction of travel of consumer eyeballs, with study after study showing an increase in mobile screen time,” the study notes.
The biggest obstacle for digital to seize even more ad dollars isn’t from TV or another media category, but rather from the internet industry itself. While marketers pour ad dollars into digital, brands and their ad agency partners are demanding more effective monitoring of digital advertising, including better transparency, more input in placement and accurate data on delivery.
While U.S. consumers spend more time with digital, especially mobile media, the migration of traditional ad spend to digital (including mobile) still lags consumer adoption of the new platforms and devices. Traditional media ad spend, while not rising at the same meteoric rates as digital, is still holding relatively steady.
“Ad spend will follow the intent of advertisers, not just consumption patterns, and TV is still preferred for its ability to raise awareness with a huge audience,” the report notes.
As demographics shift, though, PwC expects digital media to make its move and further displace traditional media consumption habits. “As consumers, especially the young, spend even more time online and even less time in front of live TV, more ad campaigns will be multi-channel,” it says.
ADVERTISER NEWS
In a somewhat unusual move, Tempur Sealy provided a mid-cycle business update reporting that May orders for the company were up 15%--eliminating sales at Mattress Firm last year. It also noted that sales in April had been negatively impacted by a large liquidation event at its former biggest customer. As we have reported the manufacturer and retailer no longer do business with each company having filed lawsuits against the other…… Amazon will offer a $5.99 monthly Prime membership to the almost 20% of U.S. population that receives government assistance such as food stamps. That’s a $5 discount off the regular Prime rate and gives members free two-day shipping, video and music content, and other amenities. The move is seen as directed at Walmart for Amazon to take more of the low-income segment of the market and a chance for Amazon to cut into the 47% of U.S. households (according to Kantar Retail data) that say they never or rarely shop at Amazon……One-time Sears subsidiary Land’s End, which relied heavily on departments in Sears stores after it was spun off, reported retail segment revenue down 2.8% (impacted to some degree by the closings of Sears stores) but same-store sales at units that remain open up 2.1%...... Michaels’ fiscal first quarter profit fell by 21.3% as same-store sales fell by 1.2%, mostly on declines in the average ticket. The chain slightly cut its projection for the current quarter, now seeing comps in a range of down 0.5% to down 1.5%…… Nation’s Restaurant News reports the Ignite Restaurant Group is in talks with a couple of possible acquirers as it faces a deadline this week on its debt. One report has Landry’s (which once owned Joe’s Crab Shack) as a possibility and American Blue Ribbon Holdings (parent of O’Charley’s, Ninety Nine and Bakers Square) as another possible bidder. Ignite still operates 112 Joe’s and 25 Brick House units in 32 states……Papa Murphy’s will close up to 16 company-owned stores in several markets by the end of this year, with the majority closing in the current quarter. The chain also announced a partnership with digital ordering provider Olo that will be operational early next year. Additionally, the company says it’s preparing some markets for re-franchising company-owned stores to interested buyers……Captain D’s is teaming with development firm American Development Partners to propel “aggressive franchise development plans.” Currently at 516 restaurants in 21 states, the chain says it’s the number one seafood franchise ranked by average unit volume and is looking for either single-unit or multi-unit franchisees, telling them 2016 was the sixth straight year of same-store increases.
NETWORK NEWS
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS) tumbled from first to third place in total viewers among broadcast late-night shows during a Memorial Week hiatus. Deadline. com says this ends the show’s 17-week streak as the most watched broadcast late-night show. NBC’s Tonight repeats (2.47M viewers) bested Late Show reruns (2.25M). ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel Live (2.33M), which aired two nights of originals last week, also finished ahead of Colbert in total viewers. Among adults 18-49, Fallon continued to top the weekly ratings. Monday’s holiday episodes were not included in the weekly ratings for any of these programs.….Scott Pelley will finish up his anchor and managing editor role at CBS Evening News next Friday. Pelley is leaving the anchor chair after 6 years. He’ll focus full time on 60 Minutes….Game 4 of The Stanley Cup Finals between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Nashville Predators averaged a 4.1 rating among metered market households Monday night, up 33% from the comparable face-off last year. Early demo estimates show a 1.8 rating among adults 18-49 ahead of time-zone adjustments…...Marilyn Hall, an Emmy-winning TV writer-producer and wife of Monty Hall for 70 years, died Monday at age 90. Her TV writing credits include Love, American Style and the 1975 ABC special Lights, Camera, Monty!
DONE DEALS
Nexstar Media Group has named Julie Brinks VP and General Manager of their Grand Rapids, MI properties, including WOOD (NBC), WOTV (ABC), and WXSP (MY Network). Prior to joining Nexstar, Brinks served as General Manager of KOHD-TV (ABC) and KBNZ-LD (CBS) in Bend, OR....Gabriel Marano has joined Fox Broadcasting Company as Senior Vice President, Drama Programming & Development. Marano will be responsible for supervising the development and production of new and returning scripted series for the network. Most recently, Marano was SVP of Drama Programming for A&E.
MSNBC #1 IN PRIME
About a year ago, the chance that MSNBC would be the #1cable news network in primetime would have been about as remote as perhaps the Chicago Cubs ever winning the World Series, or even Donald Trump becoming President. Unrelated to the former, but definitely related to latter, MSNBC is now number one in weekday primetime in adults 25-54 for the first time since September 2000. The peacock’s news net delivered an average of 532,000 of the news demo to Fox News Channel’s 524,000 and CNN’s 455,000. Also in total viewers, MSNBC’s prime lineup ranked third of all cable nets, trailing just TNT and FNC.
More good news for the net was the highest ever daytime delivery of total viewers in its 20 year history, and morning show Morning Joe reaching a million total viewers for the first time. That show still trails Fox & Friends but has now beaten CNN in the morning daypart for the 27th straight month.
BUSINESS BYTES
Billionaire Carl Icahn is looking to change the auto aftermarket in a big way, impacting existing chains such as AutoZone, O’Reilly, and Advance Auto Parts. Icahn already owns parts manufacturer Federal-Mogul and distributor AutoPlus, and acquired Pep Boys early last year for just over $1 billion. Now Icahn is acquiring Precision Auto Care and its approximately 250 service locations, giving the Icahn Automotive Group more than 1,000 locations. The plan is distributor AutoPlus gets parts from manufacturer Federal-Mogul (as well as other manufacturers when needed), and moves the parts to the owned-and-operated retail facilities. More acquisitions are expected. “He wants to do thousands,” a source told The New York Post. “Let’s assume Icahn becomes the only major national installer chain.”
It’s another “Battle of the Dollars.” A lawsuit filed last week alleges Family Dollar and its parent Dollar Tree intentionally tried to kill the 323 stores they needed to spin off to get Federal Trade Commission approval for their merger in 2015. The stores were bought by equity firm Sycamore Partners and renamed Dollar Express, and the lawsuit contends Dollar Tree had the obligation to provide product, merchandising and operations support under FTC orders meant to preserve competition in local trade areas. Instead, Dollar Express claims, Dollar Tree built 45 new stores to compete directly with the best-performing Dollar Express units, staffed the spun off stores with “underqualified” managers and “inattentive” supervisors and took other actions intended to make the spun off stores fail. (Those stores have now been sold to Dollar General, which will re-brand them to its banner—making it the third brand for the stores in two years). Supermarket News remarks the dispute represents another failed remedy for anticompetitive effects of retail mergers, reminiscent of the debacle of the Haggen acquisition of supermarkets spun off in the Albertsons- Safeway merger in 2015. Haggen made substantially the same claims now being made, failed in its attempts to operate the acquired stores, and went bankrupt resulting in many of the stores which the FTC had ordered to be sold eventually reverting back to the original owners.
RECORD YEAR FOR TV NEWS
The latest RTDNA/Hofstra University Survey shows the number of TV stations originating local news is down to 705 from last year’s 714. There were 717 two years ago.
Those 705 TV stations run news on those and another 357 stations. The latter number is another new, all-time high – up 18 from last year’s 339. That puts the total number of stations running local news at a record 1,062 – up nine from a year ago.
The total keeps going up, but it’s doing so because a smaller number of newsrooms are running news on more and more outlets.
The amount of local news in TV hit a new, record high this year. Again. The average amount of weekday news set a new, all-time high at 5.7 hours, Up 12 minutes from the previous record set in 2012 and tied just last year.
THIS AND THAT
The CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council responded to the NFL lifting its ban on liquor advertising by saying, “This is welcomed news but not too surprising given spirits companies have partnered with individual NFL teams and other major professional sports leagues that began accepting spirits advertising more than a decade ago.” While traditional commercials are now acceptable, sponsorships including program segment sponsorships and other branded programming enhancements are still not permitted. The league also mandated that none of the commercials will be allowed to have a football theme.
Despite Volkswagen’s problems last year, the Diesel Technology Forum reports there were 280,000 more diesel vehicles on the road during the year, an increase of 4% for all types of light vehicles highlighted by a 6% increase in diesel pickup trucks. While population-rich Texas, California and Florida were the leading states in terms of total new registrations, the fasting-growing states year-to-year were all in New England: Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire. The Forum notes there are now a total of about 8 million diesels on the road, and diesels outnumber hybrids in all states except California, Massachusetts and D.C.
AVAILS
KPNX 12 News in Phoenix, AZ is looking for the best Director of Sales in the country. The DOS will lead all sales efforts, manage a staff of sales managers and provide the strategy and vision to drive the sales team to success with the top priority of driving new business development efforts to grow enterprise revenue. Bachelor’s degree in marketing, business or related field, and a minimum of 10 years of media sales experience in a top 15 market. CLICK HERE for more info or to apply now. EOE.
KABB/KMYS/WOAI - TV in San Antonio is seeking a Director of Sales. This position is responsible for all aspects of sales operations to include revenue/expense budgeting, sales strategy, forecasting and sales team training/development. The ideal candidate will have a passion and understanding to lead his/her team to build strong business growth and customer relationships. 5-7 years’ experience in TV sales management required, strong and positive leadership skills required. CLICK HERE for more info or to apply. EOE/Drug Free Workplace.