British Society for Population Studies – 2007 Annual Conference Programme

Tuesday 11 September
11.00am –
Lower College Hall / Registration
1.00pm – 2.15pm.
Lower College Hall / Lunch
2.30pm – 4.00pm
a. Quad Room 31
b. School 1
c. School 2
d. School 3 / a. Historical demography 1: Fertility and Ireland
Chair: Professor Bob Woods
1. Re-doing the census: The National Religious Census of Ireland, 1831-34 . - Liam Kennedy and Brian Gurrin, Queens University Belfast
2. The female education and family planning thesis: the implications of oral history evidence from mid-twentieth century Britain - Simon Szreter, University of Cambridge
3. Proofs and refutations: on competing views of historical fertility decline - Mikolaj Szoltysek, Cambridge Group, University of Cambridge / b. Local government 1
Chair: TBA
1. Comparative demographic change in the context of economic performance in the UK regions which have received European assistance over the last quarter century - Malcolm Brown, Cornwall County Council
2. The demography of the first amendments to the London Plan – John Hollis, Greater London Authority
3. Producing ethnic group labour force projections for Greater London – Baljit Bains, Greater London Authority / c. Health Inequalities 1
Chair: Dr. Paula Griffiths
1. Beyond material explanations: The role of family solidarity in mortality decline - Jon Anson, Ben Gurion University of the Negev
2. High household pollution exposure may explain poor immunity and growth faltering among young children in Bangladesh - Pieta Nasanen-Gilmore, Loughborough University
3. Approaches to assessing the role of socio-economic status on human development in South Africa - Zoe Sheppard, Loughborough University / d. UK migration 1: Inflows and redistribution
Chair: Dr. Paul Williamson
1. Poles apart? Assessing whether labour migration to England from the A8 countries has a distinctive geography - Mike Coombes and Tony Champion, (University of Newcastle Upon Tyne
2. Inter-regional migration 1991-2001, England and Wales - Rachel Stuchbury, CeLSIUS, LSHTM
3. How many Eastern Europeans have moved to Northern Ireland? – David Marshall, NISRA
4.00pm – 4.30pm –
Lower College Hall / Tea
4.30pm – 6.30pm
a. School 1
b. School 3
c. School 2
d. Quad Room 31 / a. Families 1: Gender & family roles
Chair: Steve Smallwood
1. The parenthood effect: How British couples change their division of domestic work when having children – Pia Schober, London School of Economics
2. Does women's employment impact family dissolution in Italy? - Irene Ferro, Silvana Salvini, Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence, University of Rome "La Sapienza"
3. The intergenerational transmission of gendered behaviour: Men's participation in unpaid work - Wendy Sigle-Rushton, London School of Economics
4. It takes a (maternal) grandmother to raise a child? A review of the impact of kin on child survival – Rebecca Sear, London School of Economics / b. Ethnicity
Chair: Professor David Voas
1. The challenge of ethnic transformation in the populations of the developed world. - David Coleman, University of Oxford
2. Minority White cities. - Ludi Simpson & Nissa Finney, University of Manchester
3. The modifiable ethnic unit problem (MEUP): Defining and measuring ethnicity in multicultural societies - Pablo Mateos, Paul Longley, University College London
4. Be fruitful and multiply: Changing family formation behaviour and the role of religion, religiosity and ethnicity - Petra Nahmias, Princeton University / c. Health Inequalities 2: The United Kingdom
Chair: Dr. Ann Palmer
1. The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study – David Marshall, NISRA
2. Social inequalities in adult male mortality by the National Statistics Socio-Economic Classification, 2001-2003, England and Wales–Chris White, Brian Johnson, Myer Glickman, Tania Corbin, Office for National Statistics.
3. Missing girls in England and Wales? Analysis of an increased sex-ratio of births to India-born mothers. - Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford
4. Multilevel socioeconomic determinants of ethnic inequalities in CVD mortality – Lixun Liu, University of St. Andrews / Historical Demography 2: Childlessness & Child mortality
Chair: Dr. Eilidh Garrett
1. Estimates of childlessness in Britain from the mid 19th Century. – Mike Murphy, London School of Economics.
2. Long-term trends in late-fetal mortality: implications for and from developing countries – Robert Woods, University of Liverpool
3. Was Shoemaking bad for Babies? Infant mortality in Northamptonshire 1880-1910 - Tricia James, University of Northampton
4. Different places, different stories: Rural infant mortality in the nineteenth century’ - Sam Sneddon and Ian Gregory, University of Surrey & Lancaster University
6.30pm – 7.45pm.
Upper College Hall / Reception & poster session
7.45pm
Lower College Hall / Dinner
9.00pm – 10.00pm.
School 3 / Developments in British Demographic Research.
Professor John Stillwell (University of Leeds) – Understanding Population Change and Processes
Guy Goodwin (ONS) - Demographic Research - Delivering through Partnerships
Chair: John Hollis
Wed. 12 September
7.30am – 9.00am. Dining room of Hall of Residence / Breakfast
9.00am – 10.30am
a. School 1
b. Quad Room 31
c. School 2
d. School 3 / a. UK Migration 2: Dynamics and outflows
Chair: Dr. Paul Williamson
1. The dynamics of Britain’s ethnic populations:the roles of natural change and net migration in producing the ethnic mosaic. - Nissa Finney and Ludi Simpson (Universityof Manchester)
2. Christian Palestinians in the UK - Suha Shakkour, University of St. Andrews
3. Allowing for the effect of migration in calculating future needs of affordable housing in rural areas - Tony Champion, University of Newcastle / b. Religion
Chair: Professor David Voas
1. Sexual behaviour among religiously active African-American youth. - Elizabeth Cooksey, Ohio State University
2. The structure of ‘Jewish households': Evidence from Britain’s 2001 Census & implications for the future of “community” - David Graham, University of Oxford
3. Paddy and Biddy no more: Naming practices among second-generation Irish in England and Wales inferred from the 1881 census - Malcolm Smith, University of Durham & Don McCraild, University of Ulster / c. Scottish demography 1
Chair: Professor Paul Boyle
1. Fertility behaviour in the low fertility populations of Scotland and England - Elspeth Graham, Paul Boyle, Vernon Gayle, John Ermisch, Zhiqiang Feng, University of St. Andrews, University of Stirling, University of Essex
2. Fertility, gender & work-life reconciliation in Scotland - Kathryn Backett-Milburn & Lynn Jamieson, Centre for Research on Families & Relationships, Edinburgh
3. Teenage mothers in Scotland, 1991-2001 - Gillian Raab, University of St. Andrews, Lin Hattersley, GRO-Scotland, Marion Henderson, MRS Social & Public Health Sciences Unit / d. UPTAP 1
Chair: Professor John Stillwell
1. The micro-geography of UK demographic change 1991-2001 - Paul Norman, University of Leeds
2. Towards an enhanced UK spatial interaction data service – Adam Dennett, Oliver Duke-Williams and John Stillwell, University of Leeds.
3. Developing individualised life tables - Martin Karlsson, University of Oxford, Les Mayhew and Ben Rickayzen, Cass Business School, City University.
10.30am – 11.00am
Lower College Hall / Coffee
11.00am –12.30pm
a. Quad Room 31
b. Quad Room 30
c. School 2
d. School 3
e. School 1 / a. Health Inequalities 3
Chair: Dr. Paula Griffiths
1. “I don’t have fear go die, but I have fear don’t have money.” When the health needs of HIV patients are overshadowed by their social needs.- Natalie Friend du Preez, Jane Anderson Homerton University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust
2. “I’ve never ever let anyone hold the kids while they’ve got ciggies”: Moral tales of parental smoking. - Clare Holdsworth, Jude Robinson,University of Liverpool
3. An investigation of homelessness & substance misuse using routinely collected data - Chris Dibben, Iain Atherton, Alex Baldacchino, Joe Doherty, University of St. Andrews, University of Dundee / b. Elderly Populations
Chair: Dr. Nicola Shelton
1. Reproductive history and mortality in late middle age among Norwegian men and women. - Emily Grundy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Øystein Kravdal, University of Oslo
2. Gender differences in regional deprivation and body mass index among English elderly population. - Faiza Tabassum, University College London
3. Socio-demographic differentials and the role of health related behaviour and chronic conditions in physical functioning among the Greek population aged 50+: An analysis based on SHARE data - Cleon Tsimbos, University of Piraeus, Georgia Verropoulou, University of Piraeus & Institute of Education (research associate) / c. Families 2: partnerships and children
Chair: Dr. Tak Wing Chan
1. The extent & risk factors of severe child poverty in the UK - Monica Magadi, Loughborough University
2. The impact of divorce on migration and residential mobility - Peteke Feijten, Maarten van Ham, University of St. Andrews
3. A longitudinal analysis of family migration & the gender gap in earnings in the United States and Great Britain – Thomas J. Cooke1, Paul Boyle2, Kenneth Couch1, Peteke Feijten, 1University of Connecticut, 2University of St. Andrews / d. Scottish demography 2
Chair: Dr. Elspeth Graham
1. The Evolution of the Costs of Free Personal Care in Scotland - David Bell, Alison Bowes, University of Stirling
2. Regional variation in demographic trends across Scotland: 1981-85 and 2001-05. - Michael Anderson (University of Edinburgh), Cecilia MacIntyre (GROS), Nick Wright (GROS)
3. The macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: A computable general equilibrium analysis –K. Lisenkova., P. G. McGregor, N. Pappas., J. K. Swales, K. Turner and R. Wright, University of Strathclyde in Glasgow
4. Does Scotland need population growth?John MacInnes, University of Edinburgh. / e. Censuses and surveys.
Chair: Professor Tony Champion
1. Using the 2001 Census SARs to explore the characteristic of people who are “working below potential”- Lisa Buckner, University of Leeds, Linda Grant, Sheffield Hallam University
2.Why you should still be worried about the MAUP! - David Manley, Robin Flowerdew, University Of St Andrews, David Steel,University of Wollongong
3. The results of the Republic of Moldova Census 2004 - Malcolm Brown, Cornwall County Council & Maia Godonoga, University of Bristol
12.30pm – 1.30pm.
Lower College Hall / Lunch
1.30pm – 3.00pm
a. School 1
b. School 2
c. School 3
d. Quad Room 31 / a. Scottish Demography 3
Chair: Professor David Bell
1. Getting off the escalator - Allan Findlay & Donald Houston, University of Dundee
2. Migration and travel-to-work in the Glasgow conurbation: 1991-2001 – Jan Freeke, Glasgow City Council
3. Measurement of international migration flows in Scotland: New developments & future opportunities - Cecilia Macintyre, Andrew White, Nick Wright, GRO-Scotland
4. Using administrative sources to count populations: Results from linking the 2001 Census and the Community Health Index in Scotland – Ganka Mueller & Neil Bowie, GROS. / b. UPTAP 2
Chair: Professor John Stillwell
1. Building a multi-level model of happiness and well-being - Dimitris Ballas and Mark Tranmer, University of Sheffield, University of Manchester
2. Old, sick and alone? Living arrangements, health and well being amongst older people - Harriet Young and Emily Grundy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
3. Does being a step-parent influence your health? A longitudinal analysis - Paul Boyle, Peteke Feijten, Zhiqiang Feng, Elspeth Graham and Ali Zohoor, University of St Andrews and Vernon Gayle, University of Stirling / c. UK Migration 3: Methods
Chair: Guy Goodwin
1. IMPS –Guy Goodwin, ONS
2. Update on Short-term Migration Estimation - Jonathan Smith & Amanda Sharfman – Short-term Migration Estimation Unit, Office for National Statistics
3. Improved methods for the geographical distribution of out-migrantsFiona Aitchison, Jonathan Swan, ONS.
4. Comparison between the UK estimates of emigration stocks and receiving overseas data - Ercilia Dini, Giles Horsfield and Emma Wright, ONS / d. Fertility 1:
Chair: Dr. Sabu Padmadas
1. Sexual, marital and childbearing transitions of young men in Mexico: an approach from a life course perspective - Gabriela Mejia –Pailles, London School of Economics and Political Science
2. Why has the Kenyan fertility decline stalled? - Ekisa Anyara & Andrew Hinde, University of Southampton
3. Brazilian fertility transition toward replacement level and beyond: The great regional divide - Andre J. Caetano, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais
3.00pm – 4.00pm
School 3 / Plenary
Professor Jan Hoem, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Chair: Professor Paul Boyle
4.00pm – 4.30pm
Lower College Hall / Tea
4.30pm-6.30pm
a. School 1
b. Quad Room 31
c. School 3
d. School 2 / a. Local Government 2: Census
Chair: John Hollis
1. Local authority liaison & the 2007 test – Giorgio Finella, Greater London Authority
2. Early findings from the 2007 Census Test– Garnett Compton, ONS
3. Census developments in Scotland – Valerie West, GRO-Scotland
4. Tenure change in London: evidence over five censuses – Eileen Howes, Greater London Authority / b. Fertility 2: More developed and transitional countries
Chair: Dr. Sabu Padmadas
1. Fertility Trends in Northern Ireland - Naomi O’Neill, NISRA
2. Post-Soviet economic crisis and fertility decline: parity-specific trends in Tajikistan - David Clifford, Andrew Hinde, Jane Falkingham, University of Southampton
3. A comparative analysis of fertility determinants in the US population between women and men - Aleksander Susel, National Louis University in Nowy Sacz, Poland
4. The impact of international migration on fertility in England and Wales - Julie Jefferies and Eva Natamba, Fertility Analysis Unit, Office for National Statistics / c. Families 3: Transitions to childrearing & partnerships
Chair: Professor David Voas
1. Social polarisation and timing of motherhood in Britain - Dylan Kneale & Heather Joshi, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education, University of London
2. Lone parenthood: Analysis of repartnering patterns in the UK - Alexandra Skew, Jane Falkingham, Ann Berrington, University of Southampton
3. Currently cohabiting: relationship attitudes and intentions in the BHPS - Ernestina Coast, London School of Economics
4. Parenting style in Britain - Tak Wing Chan, Anita Koo, University of Oxford / d. Health Inequalities 4
Chair: Dr. Zoe Sheppard
1. Why is there such a difference in the health experience of women on the two sides of the Channel? - Ann Palmer, University of Kent, Linda Jenkins, Charlotte Hastie, Gilles Poirier, Benoit Devaux, Jean-Pierre Marissal, Del Herridge
2. Variations in health between Scotland & England using health survey data from both countries - Nicola Shelton,Oliver Duke-Williams, University College London & University of Leeds
3. Methodological issues in comparing the size of differences between rates of experiencing or avoiding an outcome in different settings - James Scanlan, Washington DC
7.30pm.
Lower College Hall / Dinner
9.00pm – midnight.
Upper College Hall / Ceilidh with The Lomond Band & bar.
Get out your dancing shoes.
Thursday 13 September
7.30am – 9.00am. Dining Room of Hall of Residence / Breakfast
9.00am – 10.30am
a. School 1
b. School 2
c. Quad Room 31
d. School 3 / a. Marriage Markets
Chair: Jonathan Smith
1. Marriage Markets – one, many or none? – Mike Murphy, London School of Economics
2. Age disparity or trends in marriages ending in divorce - Ben Wilson & Steve Smallwood, ONS
3. The globalisation of Swedish marriage fields –Thomas Niedomysl, John Östh, Maarten Van Ham, Institute for Futures Studies, Stockholm, Uppsala University,University of St. Andrews / b. Historical Demography 3
Chair: Dr. Alice Reid
1. Hidden dangers: The timing of death in the first month of life – a comparative Scottish study - Eilidh Garrett, Ros Davies, Cambridge Group, University of Cambridge
2. Doctors, deaths and diagnoses: the variable registration of deaths in nineteenth century Kilmarnock - Alice Reid (Cambridge Group, Cambridge)
3. Medieval colleges: the value of Winchester College and New College Oxford as case studies in the examination of late medieval demographic history. - Rebecca Oakes (Department of History, University of Winchester) / c. Reproductive Health
Chair: Dr. Sabu Padmadas
1. Gender Roles and Values of Children: Childless couples in East and West Germany - Ursula Henz, London School of Economics and Political Science
2. Rural gender based violence: evidence from six Indian states - A. Malviya, Ernestina Coast& Tiziana Leone, UNAIDS, London School of Economics & Political Science
3. Sterilisation uptake in the Dominican Republic: socio-economic and network factors - Tiziana Leone, London School of Economics and Political Science / d. Methods 1.
Chair: Professor Ludi Simpson
1. ‘Estimating with Confidence’ and hindsight: population estimates for areas smaller than Districts, revisions to the levels of 1991 Census non-response - Paul Norman, University of Leeds, Ludi Simpson, Albert Sabater, University of Manchester
2. Producing small area housing & household statistics from Council Tax systems – Esther Roughsedge & Thomas Robertson, GRO-Scotland
3. Developments with ONS' Small Area Population Estimates Project - Andy Bates, ONS
10.30am – 11.00am
Lower College Hall / Coffee
11.00am – 1.00pm
a. School 1
b. Quad Room 31
c. School 2
d. School 3 / a. Health Inequalities 5
Chair: Dr. Natalie Friend-du Preez
1. Impact of rural-urban migration on acute respiratory infection (ARI) among children under five - KaziMd. Abul Kalam Azad & M. Omar Rahman, Independent University, Bangladesh.
2. Breastfeeding behaviour of unmarried mothers in the US and the UK: A comparative analysis - Petra Nahmias Princeton University, Kathleen Kiernan, University of York, Sara McLanahan, Princeton University
3. Nutrition transition in South Africa: determinants of adolescents’ dietary intake and body composition - Chiedza Zingoni, Loughborough University
4. Secular trends in age at menarche in urban South African females. - Laura Jones, Loughborough University / b. Fertility 3: Fertility decline and low fertility
Chair: Dr. Sabu Padmadas
1. Fertility and women’s employment: a meta-analysis - Anna Matysiak, Institute of Statistics and Demography – Warsaw School of Economics & Daniele Vignoli, University of Rome “La Sapienza”
2. Demographic prospects for low-fertility societies: Estimating Germany's future population structure using SOCIM - Harald Wilkoszewski, London School of Economics & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
3. Australian fertility: First results from the 2006 Census – Genevieve Heard, Monash University
4. Anticipating fertility decline: past failures and future prospects - Patrick Carroll, Pension and Population Research Institute / c. Historical Demography 4
Chair: Dr. Eilidh Garrett
1. The Literature of Poverty - Jim Smyth, University of Stirling
2. Testing the 'Inflammatory Hypothesis' using cause-specific mortality data for Victorian England & Wales. - Romola Davenport, Oxford Institute of Ageing
3. Long-term consequences of the Spanish flu in Denmark - Ida Kolte, Mette Harhoff, Peter Skinhøj, Niels Keiding, Elsebeth Lynge, University of Copenhagen
4. She's not leaving home: living arrangements among elderly in late nineteenth century urban Scotland and Sweden - Stefan Warg, University of Umea / d. Methods 2.
Chair: Andy Bates
1. The Cohort-Component Method: A new method for household projections by tenure - Jan Freeke, Glasgow City Council
2. Multiple regression analysis in population projections. - Bernhard Babel, Cologne University
3. Estimating and projecting the population of National Park Areas in the UK - Alan Marshall with Ludi Simpson, University of Manchester
4. 2. Small area estimation applied to a Cuban health survey of the year 2000 – Nestor Arcia Montes de Oca, University of Manchester