Beyond Newborn Survival: Paper 2

Beyond newborn survival: Paper 2

Preterm birth associated neurodevelopmental impairment estimates at regional and global level for 2010

Supplementary Information

Table of Contents

I – Input data for estimation of parameters

i) Search Terms used

Search terms for sex differences in preterm birth:

Search terms for additional gestational age specific neonatal mortality searches:

Search terms used for impairment after preterm birth:

Search terms used for long term excess mortality (assuming excess mortality concentrated in impaired survivors)

ii) Inclusion/ Exclusion criteria

iii) Data included

Table: Summary of final literature searches for outcomes after preterm birth

Included studies for sex difference in preterm birth

Included studies for neonatal case fatality rate in preterm babies

Included studies for impairment after preterm birth

Included studies for long term excess mortality

iii) Pooled estimates used as parameter inputs to the compartmental model

Risk ratio for preterm birth in males versus females

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies <28 weeks in NICU in NMR 1 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in NICU in NMR 1 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 32 - 36 weeks population based studies NMR 1 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies <28 weeks in NICU in NMR 2 and 3 pooled

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies <28 weeks in SCBU in NMR 3 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in NICUs in NMR 2 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in NICU in NMR 3 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in SCBU in NMR 3 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 32 - 36 weeks in pop based studies for NMR 2/3 countries:

Mild impairment in <28 weeks in NMR 1:

Mild impairment in 28 - <32 weeks NMR 1 group: (single study)

Mild impairment in all <32 weeks NMR 2 or more group:

iv) Pooled estimates used as parameter inputs to DisMod

Gestation specific case neonatal case fatality rates

Gestation Specific Risk of impairment in survivors:

II – Input data applied for process

Calculation of sex-specific numbers of preterm births

Table 1: Gestational age subgroups and birth weight proxies

Table 2: Neonatal care coverage assumptions

Table 3– Gestational specific case fatality rates and assumptions for the various levels of neonatal band and level of care specific neonatal mortality rates by NMR group

III – Comparison of DisMod and compartmental model

Comparison in methodology and data inputs

Comparison of the prevalence of preterm birth

Comparison of the number of impaired survivors

IV - Sensitivity analyses:

Table: Sensitivity analysis using historical HIC data versus current country specific data:

Moderate/ severe impairment in <28 weeks using historical data from HIC:

Mild impairment in <28 weeks using historical data from HIC:

Moderate/ severe impairment in all 28 - 31 weeks using historical data from HIC:

Mild impairment in 28 - 31 weeks using historical data from HIC:

Moderate/ severe impairment in all <32 weeks using historical data from HIC:

Mild impairment in all <32 weeks using historical data from HIC:

References:

I – Input data for estimation of parameters

i) Search Terms used

Search terms for sex differences in preterm birth:

["Infant, Premature"[Mesh] OR ("infant"[All Fields] AND "premature"[All Fields]) OR "premature infant"[All Fields] OR ("preterm"[All Fields] AND "infant"[All Fields]) OR "preterm infant"[All Fields] OR ("infant, newborn"[MeSH Terms] OR ("infant"[All Fields] AND "newborn"[All Fields]) OR "newborn infant"[All Fields] OR ("newborn"[All Fields] AND "infant"[All Fields])) AND (premature[All Fields] OR preterm[All Fields]) OR "premature birth"[MeSH Terms] OR ("premature"[All Fields] AND "birth"[All Fields]) OR "premature birth"[All Fields] OR ("preterm"[All Fields] AND "birth"[All Fields]) OR "preterm birth"[All Fields]]

AND

["sex distribution"[MeSH Terms] OR ("sex"[All Fields] AND "distribution"[All Fields]) OR "sex distribution"[All Fields] OR "sex ratio"[MeSH Terms] ]

Limits: HUMAN.

Last updated August 2012

Search terms for additional gestational age specific neonatal mortality searches:

AND

["mortality"[Subheading] OR "mortality"[All Fields] OR "mortality"[MeSH Terms] OR "death"[MeSH Terms] OR "death"[All Fields] OR fatality[All Fields]]

Limits: HUMAN and date 1st Jan 1990 – onwards

Last updated 9th August 2012

Search terms used for impairment after preterm birth:

AND

["Brain Damage, Chronic"[Mesh] OR "cerebral palsy"[MeSH Terms] OR ("cerebral"[All Fields] AND "palsy"[All Fields]) OR "cerebral palsy"[All Fields] OR "Disabled Children"[Mesh] OR "Mental Disorders Diagnosed in Childhood"[Mesh] OR "Mental Retardation"[Mesh] OR "Learning Disorders"[Mesh] OR "Communication Disorders"[Mesh] OR "Developmental Disabilities"[Mesh] OR (cognitive[All Fields] AND impairment[All Fields]) OR (motor[All Fields] AND impairment[All Fields]) OR "Epilepsy"[Mesh] OR "epilepsy"[All Fields] OR "seizures"[MeSH Terms] OR "seizures"[All Fields] OR "Vision Disorders"[Mesh] OR "blindness"[All Fields] OR "blind"[All Fields] OR ("Hearing Loss, Sensorineural"[Mesh] OR "Hearing Disorders"[Mesh] OR "Hearing Loss"[Mesh] OR ("hearing"[All Fields] AND "loss"[All Fields]) OR "hearing loss"[All Fields] OR "Deafness"[Mesh] OR "deafness"[All Fields])]

AND

["cohort studies"[MeSH Terms] OR ("cohort"[All Fields] AND "studies"[All Fields]) OR "cohort studies"[All Fields] OR ("cohort"[All Fields] AND "study"[All Fields]) OR "cohort study"[All Fields] OR ("follow-up studies"[MeSH Terms] OR ("follow-up"[All Fields] AND "studies"[All Fields]) OR "follow-up studies"[All Fields] OR ("follow"[All Fields] AND "up"[All Fields] AND "study"[All Fields]) OR "follow up study"[All Fields])]

Limits: HUMAN and date 1st Jan 1990 – onwards

Last updated - 12th August 2012

Search terms used for long term excess mortality (assuming excess mortality concentrated in impaired survivors)

["cerebral palsy"[MeSH Terms] OR ("cerebral"[All Fields] AND "palsy"[All Fields]) OR "cerebral palsy"[All Fields]]

AND

["mortality"[Subheading] OR "mortality"[All Fields] OR "mortality"[MeSH Terms] OR "death"[MeSH Terms] OR "death"[All Fields] OR fatality[All Fields]]

Limits: HUMAN

Last updated – May 2012

ii) Inclusion/ Exclusion criteria

Titles and abstracts were reviewed; studies that reported data on prevalence of preterm birth overall, or gestational age specific rates of preterm birth, case fatality, or impairment/morbidity associated with preterm birth were abstracted. Studies meeting preliminary inclusion criteria were excluded if: 1) they did provide data by relevant gestational age categories 2) selection of the birth cohort or preterm cases was not clearly defined, 3) substantial selection biases existed or cases were drawn from a specialized sub-population, 4) reported data from a previously included cohort, 5) they did not assess impairment using a validated clinician administered tool, or 6) the assessment of impairment was carried out before 18 months of age.

iii) Data included

Table: Summary of final literature searches for outcomes after preterm birth

Literature search / Other sources e.g. surveys/ national statistics/ unpublished data / Total number of included studies
Prevalence of preterm birth / Number of titles/ abstracts screened =4919
Number included=162 / N=576 / N=738
Sex difference in risk of preterm birth / Number of titles/ abstracts screened=387
Number included=15 / N=0 / N=13
Preterm birth case fatality rate / Number of titles/ abstracts screened=7,909
Number included=74 / N=2 / N=76
Long term impairment after preterm birth / Number of titles/ abstracts screened=1,714
Number included=25 / N=0 / N=25
Long term excess mortality in survivors of preterm birth / NA / N=8 / N=8

Included studies for sex difference in preterm birth

Sex Ratio (males) in singleton pregnancies
Study / Location / Number of preterm births / Number of male preterm births / % male
Cooperstock (1996 - white) / 7 states in New England / 97941 / 53800 / 54.9
Coopersock (1996 - black) / 13674 / 7130 / 52.1
Hall 1982 / 5091 / 2885 / 56.7
Brettell 2008 / 4003 / 2154 / 53.8
Vatten 2004 / 84949 / 47799 / 56.3
Ingemarsson (2003) / only <33, but state similar proportions up to <37 weeks / 2277 / 1252 / 55.0
Astolfi (1999) / 96605 / 52263 / 54.1
EUROPOP 1994- 1997 / European Program of Occupational Risks and Pregnancy Outcome - Euro case control - Czech, Finland, France Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia, Scot, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden / 9069 / 5024 / 55.4
FNPS 1995 - 1998 / French National Perinatal Surveys (FNPS) (blondel 2000, blondel 2001) / 2181 / 1182 / 54.2
SSD registry 1998 - 1999 / Seine saint dennis france - zeitlin 2002 / 2514 / 1370 / 54.5
FIVNAT registry 1986 - 1997 / National IVF Registry: Fe´condation In Vitro National (de Mouzon 1993) / 2185 / 1167 / 53.4
Lindstrom 2007 / Sweden 1973 - 9 / 22113 / 12044 / 54.5
Swamy 2008 / singletons in medical birth reg norway 1967 - 1988 / 60273 / 33605 / 55.8
Lubchenco 1963 / Colorado general hospital 1948 – 61 / 1485 / 823 / 55.4
Kramer 2001 / 40187 / 22092 / 55.0

Included studies for neonatal case fatality rate in preterm babies

NMR group 1:

Country / Isocode / Study Year / Pub Year / Author / Gestational age band / Design / Definition / NLB / NND / NMR
United States / USA / 2004 / 2007 / Mathews / <28 / 1 / 2 / 23980 / 6216 / 259.2
Republic of Korea / KOR / 2002 / 2011 / Hahn / <28 / 3 / 2 / 592 / 230 / 388.5
United Kingdom / GBR / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 2 / 1 / 82 / 20 / 243.9
Slovakia / SVK / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 128 / 36 / 281.3
Japan / JPN / 2005 / 2009 / Itabashi / <28 / 3 / 1 / 2253 / 453 / 201.1
Portugal / PRT / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 264 / 89 / 337.7
Finland / FIN / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 133 / 39 / 293.2
Sweden / SWE / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 258 / 43 / 166.7
Poland / POL / 2001 / 2011 / Stoinska / <28 / 4 / 2 / 640 / 338 / 528.125
Malta / MLT / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 8 / 3 / 375
Poland / POL / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 1110 / 507 / 456.8
Sweden / SWE / 2002 / 2009 / Lundqvist / <28 / 2 / 1 / 235 / 33 / 140.4
Luxembourg / LUX / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 3 / 3 / 1000
Netherlands / NLD / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 459 / 149 / 324.6
Malaysia / MYS / 2006 / 2006 / <28 / 3 / 1 / 800 / 488 / 610
Denmark / DNK / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 166 / 48 / 289.2
Ireland / IRL / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 182 / 45 / 247.3
Estonia / EST / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 53 / 17 / 320.8
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / Peristat / <28 / 2 / 1 / 2431 / 576 / 236.9
Switzerland / CHE / 2003 / 2011 / Schapbach / <28 / 1 / 1 / 946 / 236 / 249.5
United States / USA / 2005 / 2009 / Bode / <28 / 2 / 1 / 87 / 10 / 114.9
Norway / NOR / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 168 / 31 / 184.5
Austria / AUT / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 291 / 67 / 230.2
Czech Republic / CZE / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 284 / 62 / 218.3
New Zealand / NZL / 2004 / 2004 / NMDS / <28 / 1 / 1 / 180 / 30 / 166.7
Canada / CAN / 2009 / <28 / 3 / 2 / 1152 / 242 / 210.1
United Kingdom / GBR / 2001 / 2009 / 4child annual report / <28 / 2 / 2 / 761 / 272 / 357.4
Republic of Korea / KOR / 2009 / 2011 / Hahn / <28 / 3 / 2 / 910 / 261 / 286.8
Lithuania / LTU / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 80 / 39 / 487.5
Spain / ESP / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 2 / 1 / 106 / 32 / 301.9
United States / USA / 2000 / 2007 / Fanaroff / <28 / 4 / 2 / 8312 / 2333 / 280.7
Germany / DEU / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 1827 / 196 / 107.3
United Kingdom / GBR / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 2 / 1 / 183 / 55 / 300.5
Belgium / BEL / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 2 / 1 / 151 / 47 / 311.3
Belgium / BEL / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 2 / 1 / 50 / 16 / 320
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / 2006 / CMACE / <28 / 1 / 1 / 2900 / 590 / 203
Canada / CAN / 2005 / <28 / 3 / 2 / 1019 / 202 / 198.2
Slovenia / SVN / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 52 / 16 / 307.7
Finland / FIN / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 342.205 / 18 / 52.6
United States / USA / 2000 / 2007 / Fanaroff / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 9841 / 484 / 49.2
Belgium / BEL / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 106.007 / 9 / 84.9
Malaysia / MYS / 2006 / 2006 / 28 - <32 / 3 / 1 / 2333 / 370 / 158.6
Poland / POL / 2001 / 2011 / Stoinska / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 777 / 106 / 136.422
Czech Republic / CZE / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 748.56 / 39 / 52.1
Luxembourg / LUX / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 13.0039 / 1 / 76.9
Norway / NOR / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 407.725 / 19 / 46.6
Republic of Korea / KOR / 2002 / 2011 / Hahn / 28 - <32 / 3 / 2 / 1268 / 159 / 125.4
Sweden / SWE / 2002 / 2009 / Lundqvist / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 552 / 10 / 18.1
Slovakia / SVK / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 348.837 / 30 / 86
New Zealand / NZL / 2004 / 2004 / NMDS / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 410 / 13 / 31.7
Denmark / DNK / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 497.382 / 19 / 38.2
Sweden / SWE / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 628.742 / 21 / 33.4
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / 2006 / CMACE / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 5500 / 227 / 41
Slovenia / SVN / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 136.986 / 5 / 36.5
Netherlands / NLD / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 1321.1 / 72 / 54.5
Germany / DEU / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 4829.55 / 85 / 17.6
United States / USA / 2004 / 2007 / Mathews / 28 - <32 / 1 / 2 / 31050 / 502 / 16.2
Malta / MLT / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 20.9996 / 5 / 238.1
United Kingdom / GBR / 2001 / 2009 / 4child annual report / 28 - <32 / 2 / 2 / 1185 / 51 / 43
Ireland / IRL / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 413.793 / 24 / 58
Portugal / PRT / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 710.382 / 39 / 54.9
Canada / CAN / 2009 / 28-<32 / 3 / 2 / 1713 / 79 / 46.1
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 5819.67 / 213 / 36.6
Republic of Korea / KOR / 2009 / 2011 / Hahn / 28 - <32 / 3 / 2 / 2587 / 370 / 143
United Kingdom / GBR / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 165.017 / 5 / 30.3
Canada / CAN / 2005 / 28-<32 / 3 / 2 / 1300 / 50 / 38.5
Spain / ESP / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 356.083 / 24 / 67.4
Austria / AUT / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 775.401 / 29 / 37.4
Lithuania / LTU / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 187.019 / 17 / 90.9
Estonia / EST / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 84.9257 / 4 / 47.1
Belgium / BEL / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 388.35 / 20 / 51.5
Poland / POL / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 2614.27 / 326 / 124.7
United Kingdom / GBR / 2004 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 2 / 1 / 443.975 / 21 / 47.3
Austria / AUT / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 7804.88 / 32 / 4.1
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 2 / 1 / 39508.2 / 241 / 6.1
Sweden / SWE / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 5393.26 / 48 / 8.9
Slovakia / SVK / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 2796.61 / 33 / 11.8
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / 2006 / CMACE / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 38100 / 264 / 6.9
Finland / FIN / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 2666.67 / 16 / 6
Czech Republic / CZE / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 5762.71 / 34 / 5.9
Ireland / IRL / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 2800 / 28 / 10
Slovenia / SVN / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 1052.63 / 8 / 7.6
Estonia / EST / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 681.818 / 6 / 8.8
United Kingdom / GBR / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 2 / 1 / 3404.26 / 16 / 4.7
Belgium / BEL / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 2 / 1 / 4305.56 / 31 / 7.2
Luxembourg / LUX / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 309.278 / 3 / 9.7
Belgium / BEL / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 2 / 1 / 909.091 / 6 / 6.6
Malta / MLT / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 251.572 / 4 / 15.9
Norway / NOR / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 3488.37 / 15 / 4.3
Denmark / DNK / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 3780.49 / 31 / 8.2
United Kingdom / GBR / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 2 / 1 / 1222.22 / 11 / 9
New Zealand / NZL / 2004 / 2004 / NMDS / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 3333 / 16 / 4.8
Lithuania / LTU / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 1287.88 / 17 / 13.2
Portugal / PRT / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 6417.91 / 43 / 6.7
Poland / POL / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 20432.1 / 331 / 16.2
United Kingdom / GBR / 2005 / 2006 / CMACE / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 38100 / 264 / 6.9
Germany / DEU / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 46000 / 115 / 2.5
Netherlands / NLD / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 1 / 1 / 11333.3 / 85 / 7.5
Spain / ESP / 2004 / Peristat / 32 - <37 / 2 / 1 / 4000 / 14 / 3.5

NMR group 2:

Country / Isocode / Year of study / Year published / Author / Gestational age band / Design / Definition / NLB / NND / NMR
Brazil / BRA / 2000 / 2011 / De Almeida / <28 / 2 / 2 / 98 / 79 / 806.1
Latvia / LVA / 2004 / 2004 / Peristat / <28 / 1 / 1 / 65 / 31 / 476.9
Brazil / BRA / 2010 / 2012 / De Castro / <28 / 4 / 1 / 59 / 28 / 474.0
Thailand / THA / 2004 / 2007 / Sritipsukho / <28 / 4 / 2 / 21 / 10 / 476.2
United Arab Emirates / ARE / 2005 / 2008 / Chedid / <28 / 4 / 2 / 63 / 21 / 333.3
Jamaica / JAM / 2002 / 2007 / Trotman lord / <28 / 4 / 2 / 47 / 27 / 574.5
11 NICU in LAC Argentina Chile Peru Urugay / CHL / 2002 / 1998 / Grupo col / <28 / 4 / 2 / 126 / 66 / 523.8
Mexico / MEX / 2007 / 2010 / Iglesias-Leboreiro / <28 / 4 / 2 / 56 / 19 / 339.3
Thailand / THA / 2004 / 2010 / Chanvitan / <28 / 4 / 2 / 55 / 33 / 600.0
South Africa / ZAF / 2001 / 2005 / Velaphi / <28 / 4 / 2 / 453 / 308 / 679.9
South Africa / ZAF / 2006 / 2010 / Ballott / <28 / 4 / 2 / 143 / 93 / 650.3
South Africa / ZAF / 2012 / Kirsten / <28 / 4 / 2 / 318 / 80 / 251.6
12 NICU in LAC Argentina Chile Peru Urugay / CHL / 2002 / 1999 / Grupo col / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 259 / 39 / 150.6
Latvia / LVA / 2004 / 2006 / Peristat / 28 - <32 / 1 / 1 / 181 / 15 / 82.9
Thailand / THA / 2004 / 2007 / Sritipsukho / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 57 / 5 / 87.7
United Arab Emirates / ARE / 2005 / 2008 / Chedid / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 110 / 4 / 36.4
Thailand / THA / 2004 / 2010 / Chanvitan / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 123 / 15 / 122.0
Brazil / BRA / 2010 / 2012 / De Castro / 28 - <32 / 4 / 1 / 139 / 25 / 179.9
China / CHN / 2009 / 2011 / Coordination Group for National Survey of Development in Pediatric and Neonatal Intensive Care Units / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 3189 / 475 / 148.9
South Africa / ZAF / 2001 / 2005 / Velaphi / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 1711 / 496 / 289.9
South Africa / ZAF / 2006 / 2010 / Ballott / 28 - <32 / 4 / 2 / 331 / 47 / 142.0
Brazil / BRA / 2000 / 2011 / de Almeida / 28 - <32 / 2 / 2 / 110 / 33 / 300.0

NMR group 3:

Country / Isocode / Year of study / Year published / Author / Gestational age band / Design / Definition / NLB / NND / NMR
Nepal / NPL / 2008 / 2010 / Shrestha / <28 NICU / 4 / 2 / 10 / 8 / 800.0
Nepal / NPL / 2006 / 2010 / Poudel / <28 NICU / 4 / 2 / 28 / 15 / 535.7
Nigeria / NGA / 2004 / 2010 / Omoigberale / <28 NICU / 4 / 2 / 151 / 52 / 344.4
India / IND / 2007 / 2012 / Tagare / <28 NICU / 4 / 2 / 87 / 38 / 436.8
India / IND / 2003 / 2005 / MRC / <28 NICU / 4 / 2 / 973 / 535 / 549.8
Malawi / 2008 / <28 SCBU / 4 / 2 / 27 / 23 / 851.9
Tanzania / TZA / 2005 / 2012 / Mmbaga / <28 SCBU / 4 / 2 / 43 / 37 / 860.5
Uganda / 2001 / 2006 / O'Hare / <28 SCBU / 4 / 2 / 10 / 9 / 900.0
Nepal / NPL / 2008 / 2010 / Shrestha / 28 - <32 NICU / 4 / 2 / 43 / 17 / 395.3
Nepal / NPL / 2006 / 2010 / Poudel / 28 - <32 NICU / 4 / 2 / 122 / 34 / 278.7
Nigeria / NGA / 2002 / 2011 / Ekure / 28 - <32 NICU / 4 / 2 / 14 / 6 / 428.6
Nigeria / NGA / 2004 / 2010 / Omoigberale / 28 - <32 NICU / 4 / 2 / 301 / 74 / 245.8
India / IND / 2003 / 2005 / MRC / 28 - <32 NICU / 4 / 2 / 5018 / 1490 / 296.9
Tanzania / TZA / 2005 / 2012 / Mmbaga / 28 - <32 SCBU / 4 / 2 / 254 / 101 / 397.6
Bangladesh / BGD / 2006 / Day / 28 - <32 SCBU / 4 / 1 / 55 / 30 / 545.5
Malawi / 2008 / 28 - <32 SCBU / 4 / 2 / 119 / 51 / 428.6
Uganda / 2001 / 2006 / O'Hare / 28 - <32 SCBU / 4 / 2 / 18 / 4 / 222.2
rural communities in 6 developing countries / 2006 / 2010 / Carlo / 28 - <32 pop / 2 / 2 / 262 / 161 / 614.5

NMR group 2 and 3 32 - <37 weeks(1)

Author / NMR group / Number of livebirths / NMR / Number of livebirths 32 - <37 weeks / NMR for those 32 - <37 weeks / RatioLampNMR:allNMR
Thai / 2 / 3901 / 3.59 / 325 / 9.23 / 2.57
Chile / 2 / 1898250 / 5.25 / 107739 / 18.12 / 3.45
PoPPS / 2 / 8098 / 5.80 / 236 / 12.71 / 2.19
Pelotas 1993 / 2 / 4632 / 8.20 / 459 / 21.79 / 2.66
Zvitambo / 2 / 13690 / 9.75 / 4056 / 7.95 / 0.82
Cebu / 2 / 3048 / 10.50 / 461 / 33.57 / 3.20
Pelotas 2004 / 2 / 3837 / 11.59 / 533 / 20.64 / 1.78
Kenya / 2 / 1471 / 12.97 / 39 / 81.08 / 6.25
Mwanza / 3 / 1172 / 16.24 / 23 / 130.43 / 8.03
Uganda / 3 / 1477 / 16.93 / 75 / 40.00 / 2.36
AKU1 / 3 / 1434 / 19.04 / 347 / 25.72 / 1.35
MISAME / 3 / 2469 / 21.48 / 269 / 48.58 / 2.26
Janakpur / 3 / 1052 / 23.97 / 70 / 72.46 / 3.02
Fawzi / 3 / 7476 / 27.16 / 1073 / 34.48 / 1.27
Sylhet / 3 / 10585 / 31.46 / 1786 / 52.63 / 1.67
Korogwe / 3 / 777 / 32.83 / 21 / NA
VASIN / 12830 / 33.20 / 1571 / 69.43 / 2.09
CHX / 3 / 23649 / 33.87 / 4359 / 53.51 / 1.58
NIPPS3 / 3 / 4116 / 42.33 / 767 / 58.67 / 1.39

Included studies for impairment after preterm birth

Author / Year
Published / Country / Preterm group / Median
year of birth / Number of survivors / % Moderate/ severe impairment / % Mild impairment
Victorian Infant Study Group / 2011 / Australia / Under 28 weeks / 2005 / 165 / 17.6 / 30.9
Bolisetty / 2006 / Australia / Under 28 weeks / 2000 / 301 / 16.1
Zlatohlavkova / 2010 / Czech Republic / Under 28 weeks / 2001 / 195 / 14.4
Munck / 2010 / Finland / Under 28 weeks / 2003 / 76 / 14.5
Kaukola / 2006 / Finland / Under 28 weeks / 2000 / 53 / 18.9
Porath / 2011 / Germany / Under 28 weeks / 2001 / 54 / 11.1 / 46.3
Damm / 2011 / Germany / Under 28 weeks / 2006 / 513 / 17.0 / 44.0
Potharst / 2011 / Netherlands / Under 28 weeks / 2008 / 104 / 37.5 / 37.5
Stoinska / 2011 / Poland / Under 28 weeks / 2001 / 165 / 36.0
Schlapbach / 2011 / Switzerland / Under 28 weeks / 2003 / 536 / 28.2 / 29.9
D'amore / 2011 / UK / Under 28 weeks / 2000 / 265 / 27.2 / 25.3
Mercier / 2010 / USA / Under 28 weeks / 2000 / 3567 / 34.2
Carlo / 2011 / USA / Under 28 weeks / 2001 / 755 / 37.2
Wilson-Costello / 2007 / USA / Under 28 weeks / 2001 / 161 / 22.4
Lee / 2008 / USA / Under 28 weeks / 2002 / 1124 / 38.1 / 30.0
Van Marter / 2011 / USA / Under 28 weeks / 2003 / 921 / 22.0
Munck / 2010 / Finland / 28 - <32 weeks / 2003 / 106 / 6.6
Stoinska / 2011 / Poland / 28 - <32 weeks / 2001 / 285 / 12.0
D'amore / 2011 / UK / 28 - <32 weeks / 2000 / 638 / 17.4 / 16.5
Petrini / 2009 / USA / 34 - <37 weeks / 2002 / 8341 / 0.7 / 1.2
Marret / 2007 / France / 32 +33 weeks / 1997 / 648 / 8.2 / 15.9
Al-Marzooq / 2010 / Bahrain / all <32 weeks / 2008 / 78 / 15.4 / 39.7
Khan / 2006 / Bangladesh / all <32 weeks / 2001 / 85 / 23.5 / 44.7
Reis / 2012 / Brazil / all <32 weeks / 2006 / 109 / 45.0 / 34.9
Were / 2006 / Kenya / all <32 weeks / 2002 / 120 / 11.7 / 11.7
Ballot / 2012 / South Africa / all <32 weeks / 2006 / 106 / 37.7

Included studies for long term excess mortality

Reference / Country / Year Start / Year End / Age Start / Age End / SMR
Blair 2001 / Australia / 1958 / 1994 / 0 / 40 / 4.83
Crichton 1997 / Canada / 1952 / 1989 / 0 / 40 / 3.08
Hemming 2006 / UK / 1940s / 1950s / 20 / 50 / 3.75
Khan 1998 / Bangladesh / 1993 / 1995 / 3 / 7 / 4.78
Schlesinger 1959 / USA / 1950 / 1952 / 6 / 17 / 14.52
Strauss 1999 / USA / 1986 / 1995 / 0 / 55+ / 8.38
Westbom 2011 / Sweden / 1990 / 2005 / 2 / 19 / 13.88
Evans 1990 / UK / 1970 / 1979 / 1 / 19 / 12.94

iii) Pooled estimates used as parameter inputs to the compartmental model

Risk ratio for preterm birth in males versus females

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies <28 weeks in NICU in NMR 1 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in NICU in NMR 1 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 32 - 36 weeks population based studies NMR 1 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies <28 weeks in NICU in NMR 2 and 3 pooled

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies <28 weeks in SCBU in NMR 3 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in NICUs in NMR 2 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in NICU in NMR 3 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 28 - 31 weeks in SCBU in NMR 3 countries:

Neonatal mortality in preterm babies 32 - 36 weeks in pop based studies for NMR 2/3 countries:

Mild impairment in <28 weeks in NMR 1:

Mild impairment in 28 - <32 weeks NMR 1 group: (single study)

Mild impairment in all <32 weeks NMR 2 or more group:

iv) Pooled estimates used as parameter inputs to DisMod

Gestation specific case neonatal case fatality rates

Data inputs / Case Fatality Rate / Lower CI / Upper CI
1990
<28 weeks / NMR 1 / 13 studies / 38.7% / 32.5% / 45.2%
NMR 2 / 16 historical studies from HIC / 54.3% / 49.5% / 59.1%
NMR 3 / No representative data to inform estimates. Assume 98% mortality
28 - 31 weeks / NMR 1 / 7 studies / 8.3% / 6.6% / 10.5%
NMR 2 / 17 historical studies / 21.4% / 18.4% / 24.7%
NMR 3 / Single study - Bangladesh in 1994 / 70.0% / 49.9% / 90.1%
32 - 36 weeks / NMR 1 / Single study - Denmark 1989 / 1.8% / 0.0% / 4.4%
NMR 2 / No data - assume same mortality as NMR 1 countries / 1.8% / 0.0% / 4.4%
NMR 3 / Based on a meta-analysis of 6 community based studies n=311. / 11.30 / 5.70 / 16.80
2010
<28 weeks / NMR 1 / 45 studies / 28.0% / 18.8% / 39.5%
NMR 2 / 15 studies / 56.5% / 49.8% / 62.9%
NMR 3 / No representative data to inform estimates. Assume 98% mortality
28 - 31 weeks / NMR 1 / 38 studies / 5.8% / 4.9% / 6.8%
NMR 2 / 12 studies / 21.1% / 16.1% / 27.2%
NMR 3 / Single study - Bangladesh in 1994 / 70.0% / 49.9% / 90.1%
32 - 36 weeks / NMR 1 / 27 studies / 0.8% / 0.7% / 0.9%
NMR 2 / Single study Latvia 2004 / 1.5% / 0.0% / 8.0%
NMR 3 / Based on a meta-analysis of 6 community based studies n=311. / 11.3% / 5.7% / 16.8%

Gestation Specific Risk of impairment in survivors:

Severity of impairment / Data Inputs / Risk of impairment / Lower CI / Upper CI
1990
<28 weeks / Mod/Sev / NMR 1 / Meta 33 HIC studies 1985 - 1997 mean=1991 median=1992 / 23.6% / 19.1% / 28.4%
NMR 2-5 / Pooling of 2 reviews from 1970s HIC and 2 studies from 1990 LMIC / 24.8% / 14.5% / 36.8%
Mild / NMR 1 / Meta 14 HIC studies / 22.3% / 16.7% / 28.5%
NMR 2-5 / 1 meta analysis of 1970s data from HIC / 17.2% / 13.5% / 20.9%
28-31 weeks / Mod/Sev / NMR 1 / Meta 9 HIC studies all time periods / 8.1% / 5.6% / 11.0%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 8 LMIC studies all time periods / 17.8% / 13.3% / 22.9%
Mild / NMR 1 / Meta 3 studies all time periods / 15.1% / 12.4% / 17.9%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 4 LMIC studies all time periods / 29.7% / 16.6% / 44.6%
32-36 weeks / Mod/Sev / NMR 1 / Meta 8 HIC studies all time periods / 0.5% / 0.1% / 1.2%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 8 HIC studies all time periods / 0.5% / 0.1% / 1.2%
Mild / NMR 1 / One study from HIC / 1.3% / 1.0% / 1.5%
NMR 2-5 / One study from HIC / 1.3% / 1.0% / 1.5%
2010
<28 weeks / Mod/Sev / NMR 1 / Meta 14 HIC studies 1998 - 2005 mean=2001 median=2001 / 16.0% / 0.6% / 41.5%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 3 studies from LMIC / 27.9% / 12.1% / 46.9%
Mild / NMR 1 / Meta 6 HIC studies / 33.5% / 26.1% / 41.3%
NMR 2-5 / 1 study from South Africa / 33.0% / 11.9% / 54.1%
28-31 weeks / Mod/Sev / NMR 1 / Meta 9 HIC studies all time periods / 8.1% / 5.6% / 11.0%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 8 LMIC studies all time periods / 17.8% / 13.3% / 22.9%
Mild / NMR 1 / Meta 3 studies all time periods / 15.1% / 12.4% / 17.9%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 4 LMIC studies all time periods / 29.7% / 16.6% / 44.6%
32-36 weeks / Mod/Sev / NMR 1 / Meta 8 HIC studies all time periods / 0.5% / 0.1% / 1.2%
NMR 2-5 / Meta 8 HIC studies all time periods / 0.5% / 0.1% / 1.2%
Mild / NMR 1 / One study from HIC / 1.3% / 1.0% / 1.5%
NMR 2-5 / One study from HIC / 1.3% / 1.0% / 1.5%