"Barron's consistently has found Stratfor's insights informative and largely on the money -- as

has the company's large client base, which ranges from corporations to media outlets

and government agencies."—Barron’s

October 2008

Dear Editor/Producer:

In his long awaited, much anticipated new book, George Friedman brings us a highly provocative look into the future with THE NEXT 100 YEARS: A FORECAST FOR THE 21st CENTURY (Doubleday; January 27, 2009; $25.95). Friedman, author of America’s Secret War and founder of Stratfor, America’s leading private intelligence company, shows us a fascinating global forecast of what the 21stcenturywill look like.

Drawing on an exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years, Friedman explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we will live in the new century. Some of Friedman’s predictions include:

  • The 21st century will feature a series of miscalculations by the United States, which will lead to consistently greater power. The United States will continue apparently random interventions in the international system: e.g. Kosovo, Iraq, and North Korea. Their purpose will be to destabilize Eurasia -- although by 2040, U.S. actions will end up creating two very strong new enemies (one is familiar, the other is quite surprising).
  • There are several major warsand civil wars on the horizon in the next fifty years, including a new Cold War. The next fundamental crisis will be over the Pacific Ocean. It has surged in importance, yet none of the basic geopolitical issues have been settled. The world's second largest economy, Japan, has little geopolitical power, and that will change -- leading to conflict.
  • The industrialized world is facing a dramatic population drop, which will bottom out in 2050. As a result, we're in for a severe global labor shortage. The result? Today's immigration debate will be meaningless, and countries like the U.S. will actually compete for immigrant laborers. We will also see a massive surge in the development and use of robots in our daily lives. We have only seen the beginning of the computer revolution.
  • Space: We have seen the false dawn in space travel, as well as the importance of space. In the 21st century, minerals will become scarcer on earth. These substances are found in abundance on the moon. Military tactics and warfare will also be conducted heavily from space -- leading to an enormous space industry forthe US and otherworld powers.

Thecentral concept behind THE NEXT 100 YEARS is that everything is rooted in history, and a profound understanding of the cycles and geopolitical patterns followed since the time of the Roman Empire. For just a fewof the accurate predictions from Friedman and Stratfor, please see the next page.

I hope you find this read as eye-opening as I have and will consider it as you look at your January calendar.

Best,

Elizabeth Hazelton

Publicity Manager/Doubleday

Tel: 212-782-8370

ACCURATE FORECASTS FROM STRATFOR:

  • Stratfor predicted as early as our 2005 annual forecast (and many times since then) that Russia would have to respond to the western geopolitical penetration of its sphere of influence, and it has happened in the form of the Georgian crisis.
  • Stratfor said as early as January 2004 that U.S. would go into Pakistan's northwest and we see it unfolding.
  • In December 2007 we repeated that Pakistan would become the new battleground against al Qaeda.
  • Stratfor predicted in October 2002 that the U.S. would have to work with the Iranians on the issue of Iraq. This was six months before the actual 2003 invasion of Iraq. It became clear in March 2007 when Iranian officials met their U.S. counterparts in Baghdad. Most of the “experts” still don’t seem to get it though.
  • As early as the 2004 annual forecastwe had begun saying jihadists were no longer a strategic threat, while even today a majority still thinks that the threat is increasing.
  • Turkey coming out of post-Ottoman introspection and reclaiming its role as a regional power.
  • After exactly 60 years of attempting to build a new European structure under the aegis of the European Union, Europe in 2008 will return to an earlier geopolitical arrangement: the Concert of Powers.
  • Stratfor predicted in January 2008 that Bolivia's accelerating instability would result in political and economic decline, which is the current situation with protestors blocking transit routes to Paraguay and Argentina.
  • Stratfor predicted in April 2008 that problems in Argentina’s agricultural sector would lead to economic decline and social strife. We have seen this over the past months in clashes between the agricultural sector and the government.
  • Stratfor warned in the Decade Forecast written in 2005 that there were troubles ahead for the European Union that would shake its political foundation. We expect it to be successful as an economic entity but not as a united political entity.
  • Stratfor said in 2000 that the U.S. economic downturn was then temporary, and while it resulted in the dot-com crash, the U.S. economy would surge over the nextfew years until late in the decade when it would face a major downturn. We also predicted the economic situation would influence the presidential election in 2000.
  • Stratfor predicted China’s economic troubles long before others realized that the Chineseeconomic miracle would not continue as it had for the past 30 years. In 2004 we warned about the instability of China’s economic system. At the time Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions did not agree with Stratfor, but over time they came to adopt our analysis.