Automotive: Down Year Ahead in 2018?

Spots N Dots
The Daily News Of TV Sales
December 29, 2017

AUTOMOTIVE: DOWN YEAR AHEAD IN 2018?

MOST ESTIMATES UNDER 17 MILLION UNITS

Just about every local automotive dealer that uses television is likely on the air today, pushing end-of-the-year sales with record incentives available. But television’s number one ad category is expected to be weaker next year, with Automotive News estimating 2018 sales will be short of 17 million units for the first time in four years.

With just this weekend to go, it appears 2017 light vehicles sales will finish at 17.2 million vehicles, about 2% less than the record set by the industry last year. It will be the first annual decline since 2009, ending the longest growth streak since the beginning of the car business.

The National Automobile Dealers Association is projecting 16.7 million sales next year, although it positions that number as still a great year for the industry. Mark Scarpelli, current NADA Chairman said “Every dealer in America, myself included, would be thrilled with a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of above 16 million. We are looking at a stable market where demand—particularly for light trucks, SUVs and crossovers—continues to be very healthy.”

Edmunds is forecasting 16.8 million and Cox estimates 16.7 million (it actually had called for 16.6 million, but raised the number by 100,000 after passage of the tax reform bill). Toyota is projecting a market in the “mid- to upper 16 million” range.

The declining market could lead to fierce share battles. Edmunds’ executive director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell says, “That period of growth that we had grown accustomed to is obviously over, and the industry is starting to rightsize. We could see a fight for market share. (Manufacturers are) looking to keep their share and if one company starts increasing their incentives, generally others follow.”

Lease returns will play a big factor in the year, as vehicles (many sold on 3-year leases during 2015) come back to dealerships. That will of course help to keep sales up, as drivers look to acquire a new vehicle either with a new lease or a purchase.

The burst in supply will generally lower the value of used cars to be sold next year (which will lower residual values and could lead to less generous leasing deals), but it also helps local dealerships as they generally enjoy better margins selling used vehicles than they can make with a new vehicle. And with interest rates rising, loans may become more difficult to get for new vehicles. Jonathan Smoke, the Chief Economist for Cox says “Borrowers who would have qualified for a new loan or lease a few years ago are now more likely to buy used. As rates go higher, we expect this trend to continue.”

ADVERTISER NEWS

Although we’re reporting pessimism from the experts for total automotive sales in the upcoming year, there’s one segment—pickup trucks--that will see increased competition and help keep dealers busy with high-margin vehicles. Automotive News reports Chevrolet will debut a “leaner and meaner” Silverado reaching dealers towards the end of the year, while Ford will offer a light-duty diesel for the F-150 as well as the return of the midsize Ranger to challenge GM’s Colorado and Canyon. And Fiat Chrysler will take two shots—the first full redesign of the Ram 1500 in almost a decade and a Jeep pickup coming out later in the year. For the foreign manufacturers, for the first eleven months this year, Toyota Tundra sales are up slightly while Nissan’s Titan, although still a small factor, has more than doubled sales……The Cincinnati Business Courier says Kroger will expand its Scan, Bag, Go test to more than 400 stores next year, after testing it in some Fry’s units in Arizona and a few hometown Cincinnati locations. The system allows customers to walk through the store and scan purchases, then pay for them at a self-checkout. As we had reported recently, Kroger is also expanding its ClickList digital shopping option, now over 1,000 stores……We reported earlier in the week that Mastercard’s SpendingPulse report had seen 4.9% growth across all categories, and now Furniture Today is reporting the furniture and home furnishings sector outperformed the average with a 5.1% gain for the holiday season. That confirms a report from the Department of Commerce that had said furniture and home furnishings had posted a strong 8.4% gain in November……Historically, gyms and other weight-loss options heavy up (pun intended) their advertising starting right after New Year’s Day and Nutrisystem is announcing new diet plans and a new multi-brand strategy which includes Nutrisystem Turbo for Men and the South Beach Diet. Musician Jesse James Decker will be the spokesperson for a new marketing campaign including TV with print and digital……E-Mart Stores will sell its 273 c-stores to GPM Investments in a deal expected to close in the second quarter. Richmond-based GPM operates or supplies fuel to more than 1,100 stores in 18 states, mostly East of the Mississippi, and the acquisition of E-Mart will expand their footprint into Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas, becoming the sixth largest c-store chain after the deal is finalized……Chinese company Feihe International was the only bidder for the Vitamin World chain which had filed for bankruptcy protection back in September. After Vitamin World closed more than 100 stores, Feihe plans to continue to operate the remaining 156 units.

NETWORK NEWS

The premiere of the CW’s The 100 has not been announced as yet, but the drama’s showrunner, Jason Rothenberg has been tweeting screenshots of the Season 5 trailer allowing fans an early look at the show’s favorite survivors and how they have changed from season to season. The new season will introduce several new faces including Mike Dopud (Power) as a serial killer named Vinson, Lola Flanery, Jordan Bolger (Peaky Blinders) as a space explorer named Zeke, Ivana Milicevic (Banshee) as a military strategist named Charmaine, and Spanish actor William Miller as the show’s new bad guy……According to the 11th annual Zillow Celebrity Neighbor Survey, Leonard Hofstadter and Penny from CBS’ Big Bang Theory are the Most Desirable Neighbors for 2018 by most Americans. The couple picked up 19 percent of the votes. They also received strong results from voters across different genders, generations and education levels, but was slightly less popular among voters from the West, earning just 16 percent of their votes. The Dunphy’s from ABC’s Modern Family and The Simpsons from Fox tied for second place, while Will & Grace from NBC rounded out the top four. Jack and Rebecca Pearson from NBC’s This Is Us was in fifth place and the Johnsons from ABC’s Black-ish finished in sixth place. The Simpsons also got the honor of being the least desirable neighbors from television with 31 percent of those votes. The family from Fox was followed by the Lannister’s from HBO’s Game of Thrones then Sheldon Cooper and Amy Farrah Fowler from the Big Bang Theory……The 75th Annual Golden Globe Awards will feature actress Alicia Vikander, Carol Burnett, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Shirley MacLaine as presenters during the telecast. The three-hour ceremony will air on NBC Sunday, January 7th and will be hosted by Seth Meyers. The new presenters are all past winners and nominees of the Golden Globe Award. Vikander is a two-time nominee, most recently for 2015’s film The Danish Girl. Burnett has five Golden Globe trophies, including the 1978 award for her work on the CBS’ The Carol Burnett Show. Taylor-Johnson won the supporting motion picture award for his performance in Nocturnal Animals. MacLaine was awarded the organization’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement award in 1968, in addition to six wins in 1955. Other presenters at the ceremony include Hugh Grant, Ricky Martin, Isabelle Huppert, Gal Gadot, Amy Poehler and Seth Rogan. There is a budding social media push surrounding this year’s ceremony encouraging women to wear black in a sign of solidarity with women who have come forward with stories of abuse……. The competition for viewers by the evening news shows saw NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt back in the number one spot for the week of December 18th. However, it only edged out ABC World News with David Muir by just 70,000 viewers or less than one percent. ABC’s newscast was the only one of the three to show an increase over the same week last year. It was up 2% in viewers and 1% in the adult 25-54 demo. CBS Evening News with Jeff Glor was down 10% in viewers and -19% in the demo.

STORE CLOSINGS: MORE TO COME

It would be impossible to wrap up 2017 without mentioning the thousands of storefronts that were closed during the year. Advertising Age’s Year In Review calls the year a “Retail Bloodbath” while Fox Business Network called it a “Retail Apocalypse,” counting 21 big retailers that closed stores during the year. CNBC reports that according to FGRT (formerly Fung Global Retail & Technology), 6,985 store closures were announced during the year (although some of them may not close until next year or even 2019, and if landlords agree to better rents and terms, some of them may manage to stay open). Still, the total announced is up more than 200% over closures announced in 2016. FGRT reports the most closures came from RadioShack, Payless and Rue 21, all of which filed for bankruptcy. Sears Holdings, Gymboree, The Limited and hhgregg also were among the biggest by store count with Sears Holdings the only one of that group not to have filed for bankruptcy. A Moody’s analyst told the channel “The big theme is companies have really over-leveraged themselves. If they can’t make critical investments, they have to ask themselves if it makes sense to plod on for another year or if it’s of better interest in the long term…to make a better (store) structure.” Earlier this year. We had reported that while there were many more storefronts being closed than opened, there were actually more retail brands opening stores that chains that were cutting back. FGRT estimates about 3,400 new stores have been opened this year, led by Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Aldi, and TJX (Marshall’s, T.J. Maxx, HomeGoods and others), along with beauty retailers Ulta and Sephora. Some others like Target, Nordstrom and Forever 21 are opening some new locations with smaller-formats than their currently-existing stores.

BUSINESS BYTES

Retailers have learned that the week between Christmas and New Year’s can in itself be a very strong week for sales. Prior research has shown that people who redeem gift cards most often spend cash above the value of the card that brought them into the store, and people who enter the store to return items are also candidates for new sales. But returns are also expensive for retailers to process, and The Wall Street Journal reports both traditional and online retailers are offering a variety of options for returns this year, including Walmart’s Mobile Express Returns kiosks in its stores, Amazon’s “locker locations” (including 400 at Whole Foods Stores and more at some Kohl’s locations), and some malls creating return locations for any of its merchants. Despite the phenomenal growth of online shopping over the past few years, some experts see returns as a “friction-filled part of e-commerce” that has actually held back even greater growth of online shopping. Shipping back returns is still available, though—FedEx has said it now has 10,000 locations where customers can drop off items, including some at Walgreens, Kroger, and Albertsons stores.

A NEW YEAR IS COMING. HAVE A BEER!

Craft beer consumption is growing in the United States, according to Nielsen’s State of the U.S. Beer Market report. Between October 2016 and October 2017, craft beer grew 3.4 percent, despite beer’s overall per-unit decline. Of the top 100 craft breweries in the country, 40 of them had at least 10 percent growth.

“When looking more closely at the path to double-digit growth across this elite 40, it’s clear that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to success,” Nielsen said in their report. “Instead, a diverse set of factors have contributed to growth.”

The top 40 breweries generate an average of 42 percent of their dollar sales from their homes states, and sales from breweries who are owned by large beer companies have decreased their home state sales numbers, from 54 percent in 2013 to 44 percent in 2017. The top 40 craft breweries are located across the country, with 15 percent in California; 10 percent in Texas; 8 percent in Michigan, Washington, Ohio, or New York; 5 percent in Georgia, Oregon, or Pennsylvania; and 3 percent in Delaware, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota, Illinois, Utah, Arizona, Maine, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, or Massachusetts.

THIS AND THAT

Amazon’s mini $29 Alexa-enabled voice device, the Echo Dot, outsold all other products on Amazon over the holidays. Second in sales was Amazon’s Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote, giving a major boost to voice-activated assistants in the home. Tens of millions of Alexa-enabled devices were sold worldwide... Sunday Night Football on NBC is once again on track to be the most-viewed TV series this season. NBC says the games averaged 18.2 million Nielsen viewers for live program-plus-same day viewing from September 7 through December 25. Still, SNF is actually down 11% from a year ago, when the games averaged 20.3 million viewers, according to Mediapost. The 2017-2018 TV season ends in late May 2018.

AVAILS

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