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Article: 'Efficiency gap' shows disproportionate advantage for SD Republicans
By Elisa Sand, Aberdeen American News, Nov 25, 2017UpdatedNov 25, 2017
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A complex math problem that's supposed to determine whether gerrymandering is real reveals that Republicans have a disproportionate advantage in the South Dakota Legislature.
The answer to the equation — a percentage — is called the "efficiency gap." And it's a central topic in a Wisconsin lawsuit that's been appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court and awaits a decision.
In simplest terms, an efficiency gap of more than 7 reveals gerrymandering, under the theory.
While the U.S. Supreme Court has yet to provide its decision on the equation, Nicholas Quinton believes it's a valid calculation to determine whether one party has an unfair advantage. He's a Florida political consultant and an instructor at Florida State University. He said his career work has included research of vote systems, redistricting, campaign strategy and electoral geography, which is the study of regularities and patterns of election results.
"It's a simple measure to try and figure out how lopsided a redistricting plan is as far as partisanship," he said.
Here's what crunching the numbers in the 2016 legislative races reveals about efficiency gaps in South Dakota:
State Senate
Republicans: 21 percent.
Democrats: Negative 25 percent.
State House
Republicans: 8.5 percent.
Democrats: Negative 8.4 percent.
Here's how the equation works:
• Start with the percentage of wins one political party had in a particular set of races — the statewide results for South Dakota Senate races, for instance. Then subtract 50.
• Determine the percentage of votes cast for a party's candidates, subtract 50 and multiply it by two.
• Subtracting the second number from the first reveals the efficiency gap, which some say can essentially be used to measure the difference in a state's political makeup and that of its Legislature and, in states that have them, congressional districts.
Al Novstrup is a state senator from District 3. A Republican from Aberdeen, he said he's familiar with the theory of the efficiency gap. A veteran legislator, he's also well versed in South Dakota's redistricting process, which favors the party that has more seats. At the end of the day, he said, elections are about which candidate makes a better appeal to voters.
"I think if one party fails to show up, and fails to make a reasonable representation to the voters as to why they should be in Pierre representing the citizens," Novstrup said, "why would you blame the other party?"
To be sure, the Democratic Party is struggling in South Dakota as the number of registered voters has ticked down in recent years.
On the other hand, the boundaries of some of the state's legislative districts are at best disjointed and at worst suspicious.
Not surprisingly, District 1 Rep. Susan Wismer, D-Britton, has a different take than Novstrup. She was on the legislature's 2011 redistricting committee and said residents need to pay attention if the efficiency gap calculation shows a GOP advantage.
"The reason South Dakota is in the shape it is is because Republicans have maintained a stranglehold on the process," Wismer said.
Legislative boundaries are redrawn every decade after the census. The committee that does the work is comprised of legislators and appointed by speaker of the house and the senate president pro tempore. Novstrup said that the percentage of Republicans and Democrats on any Legislative committee is based the on the percentage of Republicans and Democrats in each chamber.
The last redistricting committee had seven senators and eight representatives. Of the 15 people, three were Democrats.
South Dakota races
In 2016, all 22 contested South Dakota Senate races resulted in Republican victories.
The GOP won all but three of 27 contested House races. In one of those races, there were two Democrats and one Republican vying for two posts, so one Democrat was bound to be elected. In the other two races, there were two Democrats and two Republicans battling for two spots and one member of each party earned a legislative post.
Each South Dakota legislative district has two House members and one Senate member.
What efficiency gap can't do
While efficiency gap can reflect one party's advantage statewide, it can't be used to garner anything about statewide races and it's not meant as a tool for evaluating each individual race, Quinton said.
In other words, it doesn't help validate or discredit concerns raised in northeastern South Dakota about the boundaries of District 1 being crafted to include as many Democrats as possible to boost Republican chances in surrounding districts.
Quinton said if there are district-level concerns, it's better to look at the margin of victory. If one district has a wide margin of victory and the surrounding districts are lower, that's generally telling, he said.
That doesn't work with District 1, though, since the three Democrats who ran in 2016 were uncontested.
Other factors
Northern State University geography professor Erin Fouberg said there are infinite possibilities when it comes to drawing the boundaries of the legislative districts in South Dakota. She and Northern political science professor Jon Schaff said there are federal regulations the legislators must follow to ensure Native Americans are represented in Indian Country. They might account for a higher concentration of Democrats in those districts.
That, Schaff said, can be because Native Americans are more likely to be registered Democrats.
Indeed state voter registration data shows districts 26A, 27 and 28A skew heavily Democratic:
• District 28A has 4,059 registered Democrats compared to 1,744 Republicans.
• District 27 has 7,147 Democrats and 3,372 Republicans.
• District 26A has 3,448 Democrats and 1,164 Republicans.
Once those Native American district boundaries are set, Novstrup said, legislators followed three simple rules in drawing district boundaries:
• Creating districts with equitable populations.
• Keeping cities and towns within the boundaries of a single district, when possible.
• Keeping counties within a single district, when possible.
While the majority of Aberdeen is District 3, part of Aberdeen is also in District 2. Brown County is also divided.
Each of the district boundaries is drawn with the intent of being within 5 percent of a target population, Novstrup said. After the 2010 census, the target population was set at 23,262.
The growing population of southeast South Dakota certainly affected the process, forcing significant adjustments.
In the case of District 1, he said, the legislative committee included all of Day, Marshall and Roberts counties, but needed another 3,000 people. Options included taking part of Brown County to the west or a portion of Grant, Codington or Clark county to the south.
Novstrup said the committee chose west, and that has since sparked concerns about gerrymandering.
Although creating districts with equal population is the goal, Wismer said, voting patterns and the proportion of Democrats and Republicans in a district are part of the conversation.
Percentage of Democrats
Fouberg said another way to look at things is to compare the state's percentage of registered voters to that of the Legislature.
According to data from the state, 30 percent of registered voters in South Dakota are Democrats. Republicans account for 46 percent. The balance are independents or have other party affiliations.
Six of 35 state senators (17 percent) are Democrats. In the House, 11 of 70 member (15.7 percent) are Democrats. The remaining members of members of both chambers are Republicans.
Decision 2018
South Dakota voters will be asked in 2018 if they want to implement a new system of drawing district boundaries. The ballot measure would create an independent commission to handle redistricting. A similar proposal was rejected by voters in 2016.
The commission could consist of nine people with no more than three from the same political party. Members would not be able to hold public or political party offices.
To Wismer, the current redistricting process is too political and needs to change.
"This is absolutely the most important issue on the ballot," she said.
Using the efficiency gap, Democrats running for Legislature in Florida fare about as well their South Dakota peers — with numbers that are beyond 7 percent negative, Quinton said. Like South Dakota, he said, legislative boundaries in Florida are drawn by a legislative committee.
However, in Florida, that group's last work was appealed by a voter rights group. The Florida committee created three maps — one for the state House, one for the state Senate and one for congressional districts. The House map was approved as drawn. But alternate maps for the state Senate and congressional districts were approved in 2015, Quinton said.
According to media reports, the revised Senate map was proposed by the voter rights group. The revised congressional district map was adjusted and approved by the Legislature.
The oddity, though, is that the state House map, which was not revised, was the most unfair, at least as determined by the efficiency gap.
Quinton said he hasn't looked at efficiency gaps in states that have independent commissions that draw legislative borders, so he doesn't have a take on whether they do a better job than partisan legislators.
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Efficiency gap equation
• Start with the percentage of wins one political party had in a particular set of races — the statewide results for South Dakota Senate races, for instance. Then subtract 50.
• Determine the percentage of votes cast for a party's candidates, subtract 50 and multiply it by two.
• Subtract the second number from the first number to determine the efficiency gap.
2016 state Senate races
• 22 contested races, 100 percent Republican victories.
• 152,824 Republican votes, 64.5 percent.
• 77,062 Democrat votes, 32.5 percent.
• Republican efficiency gap: 21 percent.
• Democrat efficiency gap: Negative 25 percent.
* In the two races that included independent candidates, those voters were not included.
2016 state House races
• 27 contested races, 88.9 percent Republican victories.
• 307,255 votes for Republicans, 65.2 percent.
• 163,738 votes for Democrats, 34.7 percent.
• Republican efficiency gap: 8.5 percent.
• Democrat efficiency gap: Negative 8.4 percent.
1. What does the “efficency gap try to prove?
To show that a district is gerrymandered with politics involved.
2. What is gerrymandering?
3. Why does the author conclude that the Democratic Party in SD is suffering? Please give two reasons.
4. Does Senator Norstrup believe that gerrymandering is to blame for the lopsided party representation? Defend your answer.
5. According to the aricle, how was District 1 drawn?
6. What ethos does Erin Fouberg have?
7. Why do they start with Native American regions first when drawing district lines?
8. Would I be supported in saying an independent council drawing the district lines would reduce the effiency gap? Why or why not? What side would Quinton’s research be on?
9. What can we conclude about Gerrymandering in South Dakota after reading the article? Please give at least a paragraph.