Argosy University
COURSE SYLLABUS
MGT341 / B5005
Managing Decision Models
Faculty Information
Faculty Name: W. Fanizzo
Campus: Chicago
Contact Information
Email:
Telephone: 312.540.9671
Office Hours: 9-5
Short Faculty Bio: William Fanizzo is a principal in Advantage Business Solutions Inc., which is an industrial staffing brokerage company that specializes in permanent placement as well as temporary placement personnel. This is a new venture for him (6 yrs) and unique to the industry. Prior to the staffing company Mr. Fanizzo was a founding partner and General Manager in Contract Food Management, Inc (CFM) for 16 years, after which he negotiated the sale of the business to a competitor. CFM was a Foodservice Management Company that provided management services to restaurants, colleges, and employee cafeterias for third parties.
Mr. Fanizzo has been involved in other entrepreneurial efforts in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area where he formed an S-corporation and sold shares of stock in a start-up restaurant and purchased an ongoing business from a retiring couple. He received much of his training from ARAMARK and Canteen Corporation where he managed several public restaurants and numerous academic and industrial facilities. During this time he developed his skills in cost control and management.
Mr. Fanizzo has taught Food Preparation at Purdue University. He has served on the scholarship selection panel for the National Restaurant Association, as well as on academic advisory boards in Minnesota and Indiana. He has been a consultant to various companies; most recently a retirement home and a manufacturing company, both located in the northern suburbs of Chicago. He has been a consultant to Enterprises for the Blind for the State of Minnesota.
Mr. Fanizzo received his MBA from Lake Forest Graduate School of Management 2002 and his Bachelor of Science degree from Southern Illinois University 1969. He is currently pursuing the DBA, Doctorate of Business Administration, degree in Management at Argosy University.
Course description: Problem analysis and evaluation techniques are presented. Students are shown methods for defining, researching, analyzing, and evaluating a problem they would solve in their work or vocational environment. Specific statistical information covered in the course includes identifying and measuring objectives, formulating hypotheses, collecting data, working with levels of significance, analyzing variance, and constructing questionnaires.
Course Pre-requisites: None
Required Textbook:
Siegel, A. (2003). Practical Business Statistics. (5th Ed.). McGraw-Hill. ISBN 13: 9780072821253
Other:
It is highly advisable to bring a Laptop computer to class, loaded with the software provided with the text as well as the data analysis plug in from Excel. We will work problems in class. It is also advisable to become familiar with the software before the class begins, this software is necessary to work the assignments and provide an understanding of Statistics.
Technology: Pentium III CPU/ Windows 98; 128MB RAM printer; Microsoft Office; Adobe Acrobat Reader (full version); Microsoft Internet Explorer 5.5 (PC) 5.0 (MAC) or Netscape Navigator 4.08; Norton Antivirus.
StatPad, Excel data analysis plugin, (SPSS, optional)
Course length: 7.5 Weeks
Contact Hours: 45 Hours
Credit Value: 3.0
Program Outcomes:
1. Communication
1.1 Communicate business concepts effectively, both written and orally appropriate to the audience
2. Team
2.1 Define the attributes of an effective team member and leader and the characteristics of an effective team in reaching specific business goals
3. Cognitive
3.1 Problem Solving – Given a business problem, select and defend a business solution chosen from specific alternatives
3.2 Information Literacy – Given a business research question, access information from a variety of sources, select appropriate sources to respond to a business question
4. Analysis/Application
4.1 Integration – Describe the interrelationship of the functional business areas of statistics, accounting, operations, finance, marketing, and strategy
5. Ethics/Diversity
5.1 Diversity – Identify the issues and challenges related to diversity in current business organizations
5.2 Ethics – Identify the issues and challenges related to ethics in current business organizations
Course Objectives:
1. Structure problems to prepare for decision analysis. (Program Outcome(s): 1, & 4)
1.1. Calculate conditional and joint probabilities.
1.2. Calculate z scores.
1.3. Use Excel with Stat Pad to enter data, create charts, and calculate summary statistics and probabilities.
1.4. Construct a confidence interval for a mean.
1.5. Describe the hypothesis testing procedure.
1.6. Identify whether a one-tailed and a two-tailed test are appropriate.
1.7. Relate the business objectives to statistical quality control.
2. Develop and refine data gathering skills and techniques (Program Outcome(s): 1, & 4)
2.1. Organize data into a frequency distribution, and represent it graphically.
2.2. Explain the relationship between populations and samples.
2.3. Construct control charts.
3. Be able to systematically analyze a business issue by (a) identifying the problem, (b) gathering, compiling and organizing data, (c) recommending solutions, and (d) determining success measures and objectives (Program Outcome(s): 1, 3.1, 3.2, & 4)
3.1. Select the appropriate functions in Stat Pad to solve basic statistical problems.
3.2. Apply the hypothesis testing procedure to one or two sets of data.
3.3. Find the appropriate balance between Type I and Type II errors.
3.4. Distinguish between statistical and causal relationships.
3.5. Calculate the least squares regression line.
3.6. Use statistics to monitor and improve quality.
4. Recognize problem resolution skills through the application of systems thinking and creative/innovative methodologies (Program Outcome(s): 1, & 4)
4.1. Find the relevance of inferential statistics to business decision-making.
4.2. Calculate the measures of central tendency and dispersion for a set of data.
4.3. Construct a sampling distribution of the sample mean.
4.4. Use the Central Limit Theorem to make estimates.
4.5. Identify the weakness of point estimates.
4.6. Use confidence intervals to augment point estimates.
4.7. Determine the appropriate sample sizes.
4.8. Identify dependent and independent variables.
4.9. Use linear regression to make predictions, and assess the likely accuracy of predictions.
Assignment Table Note: All Module Assignments are due at the beginning of class that week (Module 1 due first class, Module 2, second class, etc.)
You will also have a term project and presentation due in Module 8 (to be assigned)
Module / Module Topics / Readings / Assignments1 / · Introduction to Business Statistics
o Role of Statistics in Business Decision-Making
· Data Sets
o Collecting and Understanding Data
o Quantitative and Qualitative Variables
· Describing Data
o Graphical Representation of Data
o Normal Distribution
· Summarizing Data
o Central Tendency
o Variability
/ Supplemental
Sigel
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
/ Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week’s Module Discussion Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates.
1. The only way to summarize a set of data is by calculating a measure of central tendency and variability. Do you agree with this statement? Explain your reasoning using at least two examples.
Assignments:
1. Investment Opportunities (Be prepared to do in clas)
You are a sales manager with Jones Finance — a company of investment advisors. You have to give a presentation to clients next week about the investment opportunities in the fast-food industry. As part of the presentation you want to show the clients how different companies compare with respect to the number of employees and the returns to investors. Using the data provided, represent graphically the data for investor returns and the number of employees on two separate charts. On a third chart represent the relationship between investor returns and the number of employees.
a. Does the chart show a strong relationship between investor returns and the number of employees? Is there more variation among the investor returns than among the number of employees? Why, or why not?
b. Design your charts in PowerPoint. Support your chart with a two-page summary in a Word document, explaining how you reached the conclusion. You may use bullet points in your summary, but they should be complete sentences. Use headings and captions appropriately. Also use bold for emphasis.
Present your findings to the Class.
2. Department Store Data Categorization (Hand in)
You are a marketing executive of a department store. The marketing manager of the store is required to conduct training on how to collect qualitative and quantitative data. As part of the training material the marketing manager wants to provide the trainees with a handout on examples of qualitative and quantitative data.
a. You have at your disposal the following information:
b. The names of products
c. A description of the products
d. The productivity of employees
e. Health-related information for each employee
f. The names of the product’s distributors
g. The distributors’ phone numbers and other contact details
h. The universal product codes
i. A store’s stock keeping unit numbers
j. The number of units in the inventory at any time
k. The change in the price of each product over a year
l. The current price of the products
m. The number of units of products sold each year for the past two years
n. The names of various departments
Prepare a two-page handout for the marketing manager segregating the above list into qualitative and quantitative data. Provide a rationale for your response.
Prepare your handout in a Microsoft Word document.
Module 2
Module
2 / · Introduction to Probability
o Measuring Uncertainty and Randomness
· Single and Multiple Events
· Mutual Exclusivity and Statistical Independence
· Binomial and Normal Distributions / Supplemental
Siegel
Chapter 6
Chapter 7 / Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week’s Module Discussion Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates.
1. Discuss the relationship between conditional probabilities and statistical independence. Illustrate your discussion with examples of two events that are statistically independent and two events that are not statistically independent.
Assignments: (Hand in)
1. Defective Product Analysis
You are a sales manager with Ecom, Inc. The (VP) of your organization wants to prepare a plan to reduce the number of defective products sold to clients. The VP asks you to investigate whether the proportion of defective products shipped to clients depends on:
a. The client being domestic or overseas.
b. The distributor being Smith, Jones, or Davis.
c. A combination of a and b.
Using the data provided prepare a one-page report in a Word document addressed to the VP, detailing your analysis and conclusion. Your report should clearly show the method you employed to arrive at the answer. You may also use diagrams, charts, and other visual aids to make your report more effective.
Refer to the following Web site for guidelines on how to draft a report:
http://www.learningservices.gcal.ac.uk/els/reports/
2. Risk Analysis
You are a risk analyst at Max Inc., which operates 15 manufacturing plants in the United States. Industry experts predict that the next year will be a bad one for your industry and 70 percent of the manufacturing plants like yours in the United States will operate at a loss.
The COO of your company has to provide an assessment of this prediction in the next monthly shareholders’ meeting. To help her in this assessment she asks you to determine the probability that 12 or more of your 15 manufacturing plants will incur losses next year.
Provide your response to the COO in the form of a two-page e-mail note in a Word document. Explain how you arrived at your answer, and state any assumptions you made.
3. Students: Prepare a list of three possible projects utilizing statistical analysis relating to the company where you work.
Module
3 / · Introduction to Excel
· Excel Functions
· Installing Stat Pad
· Stat Pad Functions / Read “The Excel Guide.” / Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates.
1. Discuss three reasons why Stat Pad may not produce the desired results to the problems? In each case identify a preventative measure that will minimize the chances of getting inappropriate results.
Assignments: (Hand in)
1. Stat Pad Basic Functions
Repeat the doable assignments of Weeks 1 and 2, using the functions of Stat Pad.
2. Excel, with or without the additional functions of Stat Pad, can be used for both descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Do you agree with this statement? Rationalize your position by providing at least two examples from your day-to-day life.
3. You have entered data in Excel and used an Excel function to produce the result 45.528 in cell C32. Now you want to use this result in a formula in cell F45. Why is it not a good idea to type “45.528” in the formula in cell F45? What are some of the alternative ways to incorporate the result—45.528—into the formula in cell F45? Which is the best alternative? Why?
Module
4
Module
4 / · Populations and Samples
· Parameters and Statistics
· Sampling
· Random Sampling
· Statistical Inference
· Central Limit Theorem
o Standard Error / Supplemental
Siegel
Chapter 8
/ Discussion Questions: Post your answer in this week's Module Discussion Question 1, and respond to at least two other classmates.
1. You are the general manager of a department store. One hundred randomly chosen customers have rated on a scale of 1 to 10 their level of satisfaction with the goods purchased from your store.
What can you infer about the level of satisfaction of all your customers from the results of the survey? Identify the three limitations to such inferences. In the light of those limitations explain the importance of the Central Limit Theorem in making inferences about the population of all your customers.
Assignments: (Hand in)
1. Inflation Estimates
You work as a data analyst with ABL MAX Company. To make a forecast of its financial performance, your company uses an estimate of inflation, which is based on the estimates of 57 economists. These estimates, shown in the attached Excel document, are expensive to obtain.
In order to reduce the expense of obtaining data, the CEO of your company asks you to analyze the effect on the estimate of inflation if only 20 estimates are obtained. For your analyses:
a. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the 57 estimates.
b. Take a random sample of 20 estimates, and calculate the mean of the 20 estimates.