SHORT COURSE

ON

APPLIED RELIABILITY & LIFE TESTING.

INCLUDING ACCELERATED AND GROWTH TESTING

by

PROFESSOR DIMITRI B. KECECIOGLU, PH.D., P.E.

OVERVIEW:

This short course covers in a very comprehensive way, through numerous practical applications, all aspects of reliability, life, MTBF, growth, burn-in and accelerated testing. It includes various time, sample-size, and cost-efficient tests. Participants shall learn to quantify mean life, MTBF, failure rate, and reliability, and their confidence limits; learn the best methods for determining the parameters of times-to-failure distributions including the least squares, matching moments and maximum likelihood methods; apply the latest goodness-of-fit tests to determine the best times-to-failure distribution to use, including the chi-squared, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling and Cramer-von-Mises tests; gain the skills necessary to determine whether a design change, a component change or a change in the operation-stress level has affected the component's or the equipment's life as desired; learn how to conduct tests of comparison to ascertain that design changes have improved the reliability and the mean life of products; analyze design considerations with designers from reliability point of view; plan and conduct single-risk and two risks tests, and tests which required much less test time and much smaller test sample sizes; suspended-items and sudden-death testing; non-parametric testing; accept-reject testing, sequential testing and Bayesian testing; determine the best and most efficient test sample size to use. Including the determination of the lowest cost test plans; determine the failure rate, mean life and reliability of ultrahigh reliability components including the case when no failures occur during the test.

This institute will help participants pass the American Society for Quality Control's (ASQC) Certified Reliability Engineer (CRE) exam.

BENEFITS:

Learn practical methods and tools to:

  • Acquire, reduce and analyze Reliability and times-to-failure data, and apply the results; evaluate the reliability and life characteristics of components, products, equipment and systems, using the best available methods for the determination of the parameters of the best applicable times-to- failure distributions.
  • Conduct burn-in tests, single-risk, no-risk, small-sample-size and test time efficient Reliability and life tests, fixed-time tests, fixed-failures tests, sequential tests, growth tests, accelerated tests, and Bayesian tests of all types.
  • Determine the best times-to-failure distribution to use to determine the Reliability Conditional Reliability., failure rate and mean life (MTBF) of components, products, equipment and systems using goodness-of-fit tests.
  • Determine the confidence limits on the Reliability, failure rate mean life, mission duration, the Reliable Life, and the warranty period to use for all types of equipment.
  • Determine of design changes have indeed improved the reliability" and mean life of the products as desired and planned.
  • Conduct suspended-items, and warranty and field data analysis to correctly determine the actual reliability exhibited by products in the hands of the customer.
  • Conduct test-time efficient sudden-death testing.
  • Conduct efficient non-parametric testing when the correct times-to-failure distribution cannot be determined.
  • Determine exactly how many components, equipment, or products to test to demonstrate the designed-in MTBF and Reliability,, at the desired confidence level with the desired accuracy.
  • Receive Dr. Kececioglu's two-volume "RELIABILITY & LIFE TESTING HANDBOOK," Vol. l 960 pp. January 1993, and Vol.2, 900 pp., January 1994, Second Printing April, 1997 by Prentice Hall Inc.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND AND TECHNICAL LEVEL

This course is designed for engineers of all ranks including reliability engineers and managers; product assurance engineers and managers; design and test engineers and managers: quality" control engineers and managers; manufacturing, sales and service engineers and managers; staff engineers, project engineers, statistical engineers, industrial engineers; R and D engineers, and all other engineers; statisticians; and government and industry" representatives.

The knowledge of statistics, probability, and undergraduate college mathematics is desirable to better benefit from this course, but it is not required.

FACULTY

Professor Dimitri B. Kececioglu, Ph.D., P.E., is a Fulbright Scholar and an internationally recognized lecturer and consultant in all aspects of Reliability, and Maintainability Engineering, Reliability' Life Testing, and Product Assurance. He is considered to be the Deming of Reliability Engineering. He has lectured in over - Institutes, seminars and short courses, and exposed over 12,000 people to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, worldwide. He has consulted for over 96 highly rated, and leading companies and government organizations internationally. He has been granted 5 patents. As a Professor of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering at The University of Arizona, he is in charge of a unique 10-course Reliability Engineering Program, which leads to the Master of Science Degree in Reliability Engineering. He is the Director of the Reliability Testing Institute; the Director of the Reliability Engineering and Management Institute; the Director of The Applied Reliability Engineering and Product Assurance Institute for Engineers and Managers; and the Director of the Tucson, Arizona Chapter of the Society of Reliability Engineers, which he founded.

Dr. Kececioglu has published more than 152 papers and articles. He has contributed to eight (8) books, and has published the following fourteen books:

  1. "Bibliography on Plasticity-Theory and Applications", Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, published by The American Society of Mechanical Engineers, United Engineering Center, New York, 191 pp., 1950.
  1. "Manual of Product Assurance Films on Reliability Engineering and Management, Reliability Testing, Maintainability and Quality Control," Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, published by" Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, 7340 N. La Oesta Avenue, Tucson, Arizona 85704-3119, 178 pp., 1976.
  1. "Manual of Product Assurance Films and Videotapes," Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, published by' Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, 7340 N. La Oesta Avenue, Tucson, Arizona 85704-3119, 327 pp., 1980.
  1. "Reliability Testing Techniques," Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, published by Shanghai Institute of Process Automation Instrumentation, 103 Cao Bao Road, Shanghai 201103, China, 115 pp., 1982.
  1. "Reliability-Key to Industrial Success," Proceedings of the ASM International Conference, Los Angeles, California, Edited by Mr. S. Sundaresan and Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, Metals Park, Ohio 44073, 206 pp., March 24-26, 1987.
  1. "The 1992-1994 Reliability, Maintainability and Availability, Software Handbook," Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu and Pantelis D. Vassiliou, published by Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, 7340 N. La Oesta Avenue, Tucson, Arizona 85704-3119, 118 pp., November 1992.
  1. “Reliability Engineering Handbook,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, Vol. 1, 720 pp., 2002.
  1. “Reliability Engineering Handbook,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, Vol. 2, 568 pp., 2002.
  1. “Reliability & Life Testing Handbook,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, Vol. 1, 960 pp., 2002.
  1. “Reliability & Life Testing Handbook,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, Vol. 2, 900 pp., 2002.
  1. “Environmental Stress Screening – Its Quantification, Optimization and Management,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu and Dr. Feng-Bin Sun, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, 546 pp., 2003.
  1. “Maintainability, Availability and Operational Readiness Engineering Handbook,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, Vol. 1, 814 pp., 2003.
  1. “Burn-in Testing – Its Quantification and Optimization,” Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu and Dr. Feng-Bin Sun, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, 650 pp., 2003.
  1. "Robust Engineering Design-By-Reliability," Dr. Dimitri B. Kececioglu, DEStech Publications, 1148 Elizabeth Ave., #2, Lancaster, PA 17601-4359, 919 pp., 2003.

Dr. Kececioglu has been the recipient of over 70 prestigious awards, including the following:

  • The Ralph R. Teetor Award of the Society" of Automotive Engineers as "Outstanding Engineering Educator" in 1977.
  • ASQ-Reliability Division "'Reliability Education Advancement Award" for his "'Outstanding Contributions to the Development and Presentation of Meritorious Reliability Educational Programs,'" in 1980.
  • The ASQ Allen ChopAward for his "Outstanding Contributions to Reliability Science and Technology," in 1981.
  • The University of Arizona, College of Engineering Anderson Prize for "Engineering
    the Master's Degree Program in the Reliability Engineering Option," in 1983.
  • "Five Star Faculty Award" top three nominee at The University of Arizona for "excellence and notable teaching ability," in 1983.
  • He was in the top 10% of all lecturers at the University of California in Los Angeles (UCLA) short courses during 1990.
  • He was in the top 13% of all faculty at the National Technological University, Fort Collins, Colorado, during 1989-1992.
  • The University, of Arizona inducted Dr. Kececioglu into its PRESIDENTS CLUB in 1989, for conceiving and raising the funds for "The Dr. Dimitri Basil Kececioglu Reliability Engineering Research Fellowships Endowment Fund," established in 1988, which supports up to eight graduate students in Reliability' Engineering.
  • The University of Arizona Foundation's Scholarship Development Office presented Dr. Kececioglu a beautiful plaque in grateful recognition and appreciation for the establishment of the Reliability Engineering Research Fellowships Endowment Fund," May 9, 1991.
  • The American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association (AHEPA), an over 60,000 member international organization, bestowed on Dr. Kececioglu their highest "Academy of Achievement Award in Education" in 1992.
  • On the occasion of "The 30th Annual Reliability Engineering and Management Institute," a milestone, held on November 16-20, 1992, in Tucson, Arizona, Dr. Kececioglu was presented a beautiful plaque by Dr: Ernest T. Smerdon, Dean, College of Engineering and Mines and Vice Provost of The University, of Arizona, at the Awards Banquet of this Institute on Thursday, November 19, 1992, with a congratulatory letter from Dr. Manuel T. Pacheco, President, The University of Arizona and inscribed in summary as follows:

"Your reputation as an outstanding teacher and advocate of Reliability and Quality Engineering is well established in the international community. In your capacity as Director of this Institute, as well as the Reliability Testing Institute, you have provided the forum in which many hundreds of our nation's engineers and students of engineering have received training in reliability and quality engineering.

I particularly acknowledge your efforts in establishing and developing the funding for, the endowment which bears your name and which will support worthy students in the future. The "Dr. Dimitri Basil Kececioglu Reliability Engineering Research Fellowships Endowment Fund" will help to ensure that The University of Arizona remains in the forefront of engineering education and continues to provide engineering graduates to support our nation's industries. In this highly competitive world the quality' and the reliability of American products are essential to retaining

our position of world economic leadership. The University of Arizona is proud to be an important part of that effort and can take justifiable pride in your own very significant contribution. "

  • Was presented a beautiful plaque by The University of Arizona Chapter of the Society of Reliability Engineers at the Awards Banquet of "THE 30TH ANNUAL RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT Institute," on Thursday, November 19, 1992, inscribed as follows: "In recognition of 30 years of service to the Reliability Community and as the Director of the Reliability Engineering and Management Institute."
  • Was presented a 33-page album of testimonial letters form his graduate students and industry executives worldwide at the Awards Banquet of "THE 30TH ANNUAL RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE," on Thursday, November 19, 1992, extolling his exemplary achievements and outstanding contributions to the Reliability" Engineering and Management Science Community worldwide.
  • Was presented a plaque by the VIDEOCAMPUS organization of The University of Arizona Extended University on the occasion of the 20-Year Celebration of VIDEOCAMPUS on April 26, 1993, for having taught the most courses on VIDEOCAMPUS, inscribed as follows: "VIDEOCAMPUS Recognizes and Expresses our Sincere Appreciation to Dimitri B. Kececioglu, Ph.D. for Your Enduring Commitment and Dedication to VIDEOCAMPUS and Distance Learning--l 972-1993."
  • He was presented two Certificates for outstanding service to The University of Arizona" as a "Faculty Mentor" and a "Graduate Advisor" by The University of Arizona Graduate and Professional Student Council in 1999.
  • On May 16, 2002 he was presented a special Certificate by the President of SAE for over 25 years of exemplary service to and membership in SAE.
  • On April 16, 2003 Dr. Kececioglu was honored by President Peter Likins and George H. Davis, Senior Vice President, Academic Affairs and Provost at an Awards luncheon for his 40 years of service to The University of Arizona as an outstanding professor, initiating, developing and directing the world renowned Reliability Engineering Graduate Program special coursework and research, and was given a special, very valuable clock imprinted with “THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA.”
  • On May 2, 2003, on the occasion of THE 40TH ANNUAL RELIABILITY ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE, Dr. John McGrath, Head Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering Department of The University of Arizona, gave Dr. Kececioglu a special plaque stating “ CERTIFICATE OF APPRECIATION is hereby presented to DR. DIMITRI B. KECECIOGLU, P.E., Institute Director, The 40th Annual Reliability Engineering and Management Institute for advancing Reliability Engineering and Product Assurance excellence through commitment to research and education."
  • Dr. Kececioglu is listed in Who's Who in America, American Men of Science and Engineering, Who's Who of the West, Who's Who of Greek Origin in the United States and Canada, who's Who of Greece, American Hellenic Who's Who in Business and Professions, Who's Who in Engineering, American men and Women in Science, Who's Who in Science and Engineering biographical directories.
  • Dr. Kececioglu was elected a FELLOW of the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) in 1997, and of the American Society for Quality (ASQ) in 1999.
  • Dr. Kececioglu was given the Society of Automotive Engineers' "'Distinguished Probabilistic Methods Educator Award for having demonstrated Excellence in Teaching Probabilistic Methods in Engineering Design by Reliability, Reliability and Maintainability Engineering, and Life Testing for Reliability," in 1997.
  • He is an honorary member of the Golden Key National Honor Society, an Honorary Professor of Shanghai University' of Technology; an Honorary Member of the Operations Research Society of Greece, and an Honorary Professor of Phi Kappa Phi. He is a member of SRE, IEEE - Reliability Society, ASQ - Reliability Division, ASME, SAE, SESA, IES, ASEE, Tau Beta Pi, Sigma Xi, Phi Kappa Phi, and others.
  • He is a registered Professional Quality Engineer.
  • Dr. Kececioglu received his B.S.M.E. from Robert College, Istanbul, Turkey; his M.S. in Industrial Engineering and his Ph.D. in Engineering Mechanics from Purdue University., West Lafayette, Indiana.

AGENDA

This short course meets from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. each day.

MONDAY

Morning

  • Course objectives.
  • Reliability & Life Testing overview.
  • Five fundamental Reliability Engineering relationships: 1) Times-to-failure distribution. 2) Reliability. 3) Conditional Reliability. 4) Failure rate. 5) Mean life.
  • Times-to-failure Distribution. Failure rate and Reliability determination from test or field data.
  • Mean time between failure (MTBF). Failure rate, Reliability and confidence limits determination for the useful life, or the exponential case.
  • Planning single-risk tests, including test sample size and test duration determination.
  • Tests of comparison on the mean life for the exponential case to determine which design change, supplier, or operation stress level to use.
  • Probability paper plotting approach to determine the actual distribution to use.
  • Reliability testing worth lognormal units.
  • Applications and examples.

MONDAY

Afternoon

  • Reliability testing with Weibullian units and confidence limits determination.
  • Tests of comparison for Weibullian units at their mean life and at their 10% failed life levels.
  • Reliability tests with one-shot items.
  • Comparing two lots, designs or stress levels through binomial testing.
  • Application and examples.

TUESDAY

Morning

  • Suspended-items testing, and field and warranty data analysis of components and equipment.
  • Short-duration, small-sample size life and Reliability tests: 1) Sudden-death testing. 2)Success-run testing. 3) C-L ranking testing.
  • Nonparametric percent surviving testing.
  • Applications and examples.

TUESDAY

Afternoon

  • Small-sample-size, short-duration tests of comparison: 1) Sign test. 2) Run test. 3)Range test. 4) Binomial-Pearson test. 5) Binomial-pearson overload stress test.
  • The Wilcoxon-White rank-sum test.
  • Efficient tworisk accept-reject testing with fixed test failures and fixed test time for the exponential case.
  • Sequential testing for the exponential MTBF case.
  • Applications and examples.

WEDNESDAY

Morning

  • Sequential testing with one-shot I tems, or the binomial case.
  • Two-risk, accept-reject testing for one-shot items, or the binomial case.
  • Special charts for such tests.
  • Applications and examples.

WEDNESDAY

Afternoon

  • Efficient, accelerated Reliability and life tests: 1) Arrhennius test. 2) Eyring Test.

3) Inverse-Power-Law test. 4) Combination Arrhenius-Inverse-Power-Law test.

  • More accelerated Reliability and life tests: Weibull-stress-life tests, log-log stress-life tests, overload-stress tests, and percent-life tests.
  • Bayesian Reliability demonstration testing.
  • Prior Reliability and mean life distributions.

THURSDAY

Morning

  • The Beta prior distribution for Reliability, determination.
  • Bayesian MTBF demonstration testing.
  • The Inverted gamma prior distribution for MTBF determination.
  • Two-risk Bayesian test plans.
  • Applications and examples.

THURSDAY

Afternoon

  • Reliability growth testing and data analysis.
  • The Gompertz Reliability growth model.
  • The modified Gompertz Reliability growth model.
  • The Duane MTBF growth and failure rate improvement model.
  • The Weibull, Non-Homogeneous Poison Process (NHPP) failure rate improvement (A MSI-L4 ) model.
  • Applications and examples.
  • Consultation workshop to solve participants' problems.
  • Course review and summary.

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