Algebra / Geometry II: Unit 9- Probability & Statistics

SUCCESS CRITERIA:

1.  Determine the spread of data (Box & whisker plot and Normal Distribution).

2.  Determine the shape of data.

3.  Evaluate outcomes using various probability concepts including bias.

INSTRUCTOR: Craig Sherman Hidden Lake High School

Westminster Public Schools

EMPOWER Recorded TARGET SCALE THEME

MA.10.SP.01.04 Rules of Probability

MA.10.SP.02.04 Independence & Conditional probability

MA.10.SP.03.04 Evaluate Outcomes

PROFICIENCY SCALE:

SCORE REQUIREMENTS

4.0 In addition to exhibiting Score 3.0 performance, in-depth inferences and applications that go BEYOND what was taught in class.

Score 4.0 does not equate to more work but rather a higher level of performance.

3.5 In addition to Score 3.0 performance, in-depth inferences and applications with partial success.

3.0 The learner exhibits no major errors or omissions regarding any of the information and processes (simple or complex) that were explicitly taught.

o Calculate probability of independent events using the addition rule and Venn Diagrams, AND

o Calculate probability of dependent events using the multiplication rule,

2.0 Can do one or more of the following skills / concepts:

There are no major errors or omissions regarding the simpler details and processes as the learner…

o Use the Multiplication Rule to find the probability of dependent events, OR

1.0  Know and use the vocabulary

  • Identify the Basic Elements
  • With help, a partial understanding of some of the simpler details and process

Independence and Conditional PROBABILITY

WORD or CONCEPT / DEFINITION or NOTES / EXAMPLE or GRAPHIC REPRESENTATION
independent probability
conditional probability
Multiplication Rule

INSTRUCTION 1: KHAN ACADEMY INSTRUCTION 2: SOPHIA

INSTRUCTION 3: KHAN ACADEMY Multiplication Rule

Class Work

1. Label the events as dependent or independent:

a. Your family decides to take a trip to Disney World for spring break. Your friend’s family decides to go to Disneyland. / b. You secretly take out all of the Aces from a deck of cards and then get your friend to see how many tries it takes to get an Ace.

2. Decide if the following events are mutually exclusive or overlapping. Then find P(AUB).

a. A = Drawing a red card from a regular deck of cards

B = Drawing a face card from a regular deck of cards

b. A = Rolling an odd number on a six-sided die.

B = Drawing a spade from a regular deck of cards

3. Find the conditional probability for the following problems:

a. Find the probability that it is raining, given that it is cold. / b. A bag contains different colored disks that are numbered from 1 to 10. The probability that the disk is green is 0.6. The probability that it is green and odd is 0.3. What is the probability that the disk is odd, given that it is green?

4. Use the formula PBAPA=P(B) to mathematically decide if the events are independent.

a. Rolling a 10 on a set of six-sided die and then rolling a 5.

b. A = taking math during your senior year at high school

B = going to college

Home Work

5. Label the events as dependent or independent:

a. The cost of a person’s insurance is high. Looking at the person’s driving record, they have had a lot of accidents. / b. You drink two 40oz. sodas a day for three weeks. In that time, you gain 15 pounds.

6. Decide if the following events are mutually exclusive or overlapping. Then find P(AUB).

a. A bag of 15 marbles has 3 red marbles, 3 blue marbles, 3 yellow marbles, 3 green marbles and 3 black marbles.

A = Drawing a red marble

B = Drawing a blue marble

b. Using a regular deck of cards:

A = Drawing an even numbered card

B = Drawing a heart

7. Find the conditional probability for the following problems:

a. Find the probability that a student is in a band, given that they take a music class.
/ b. Find the probability that a student gets good grades, given that they play a sport.

8. Use the formula PBAPA=P(B) to mathematically decide if the events are independent.

a. The probability that a person owns the car they drive, i.e. no payments, in USA High School is 40%. The probability that the person owns their car and knows how to change the oil is 35%. Decide if the events are independent and then find the probability that a person at USA High knows how to change the oil on a car, given that they own the car.

b.

PMI-NJ Center for Teaching & Learning ~1~ NJCTL.org