Iowa Issues SurveyIowa Registered Voters
# of Interviews –629 likely 2012 General Election Voters in Iowa (Margin of Error ±3.9%)Sample Composition:
300 Likely GOP Caucusgoers (±5.7%)
329 Not Likely GOP Caucusgoers (±5.4%)
266 General Election Swing Voters (±6.0%)
Results Were Weighted to the Distribution of All Likely General Election Voters Statewide.
Dates of Interviewing – July 5th to July 7st, 2011ll: Likely Voters, Gov Voter: Voted in 2006 or 2002, 2008 / Topline Key
All: Likely Voters
GOP Caucus:Likely Republican Caucusgoers
Not GOP Caucus: Registered Democrats, Independents, and Republicans Not Likely to Participate in the 2012 Caucus
GE Swing:General Election Swing Voters, Those Who Split Their Ticket or Only Lean towards a Party
Conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research
S1 / Are you officially registered to vote at this address in Iowa? [IF YES] Regardless of how you might feel about the parties, are you officially registered as a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, or as something else?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GESwing
Democrat...... / 37% / 100% / 45% / 27%
Republican...... / 33 / 0 / 18 / 19
Independent...... / 31 / 0 / 37 / 54
All Other Terminate
S2 / Many people weren't able to vote in the 2008 election for president between Barack Obama and John McCain. How about you? Were you able to vote, or for some reason were you unable to vote?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Voted...... / 97% / 98% / 96% / 96%
Not registered in 2008/Ineligible/too young / 3 / 2 / 3 / 3
(Refused)...... / 1 / * / 1 / 1
Did not voteTerminate
Asked of Registered Republicans Only
S3 / As you know, next year, in February, the Republican Party will hold a precinct caucuses for president to determine which candidate will run against Barack Obama in the fall. How likely will you be to participate in this Republican caucus -- will you definitely participate, probably participate, are you only 50-50 about participating, or will you likely not participate in next year's Republican caucuses and wait until the fall to vote in the general election?All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Definitely Participate... / 11% / 63% / 0% / 5%
Probably Participate... / 7 / 37 / 0 / 3
50-50...... / 7 / 0 / 9 / 8
Not Vote/Wait until Fall. / 7 / 0 / 9 / 3
(Depends/Don’t Know). / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0
Not Republican...... / 68 / 0 / 82 / 81
Asked of Registered Republicans Only
QA / If the 2012 Republican primary for President were held today and the candidates were: (Rotate Names)- Michelle Bachmann,
- Herman Cain,
- Newt Gingrich,
- Gary Johnson,
- Jon Huntsman
- Ron Paul,
- Tim Pawlenty,
- Mitt Romney, and
- Rick Santorum
Bachmann...... / 32%
Romney...... / 29
Pawlenty...... / 7
Santorum...... / 6
Paul...... / 3
Gingrich...... / 2
Cain...... / 1
Huntsman...... / 0
Johnson...... / 0
(Other)...... / *
(Undecided)...... / 19
Asked of All LikelyVoters
QB / If the 2012 general election for President were held today and the candidates are: (Rotate Names)- Mitt Romney, the Republican, and
- Barack Obama, the Democrat
Total Romney...... / 47% / 94% / 37% / 46%
Total Obama...... / 44 / 1 / 54 / 41
Undecided...... / 8 / 5 / 9 / 13
Romney/No Leans..... / 42 / 90 / 32 / 38
Obama/No Leans..... / 39 / 1 / 47 / 31
QC / If the 2012 general election for President were held today and the candidates are: (Rotate Names)
- Michelle Bachmann, the Republican, and
- Barack Obama, the Democrat
Total Obama...... / 47% / 99% / 34% / 47%
Total Bachmann...... / 46 / * / 57 / 42
Undecided...... / 7 / 1 / 9 / 11
Obama/No Leans..... / 47 / 96 / 57 / 45
Bachmann/No Leans... / 42 / * / 30 / 37
Now I am going to ask you some questions about some issues.
Q1 / How would you rate the conditions of the nation’s economy – excellent, good, only fair or poor?All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Excellent...... / *% / 0% / *% / 0%
Good...... / 12 / * / 15 / 15
Only Fair...... / 41 / 19 / 45 / 38
Poor...... / 47 / 80 / 40 / 48
(Don’t Know)...... / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Total Excellent/Good... / 13% / *% / 15% / 15%
Total Fair/Poor...... / 87 / 100 / 85 / 85
Q2 / During the next twelve months, do you think the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Get Better...... / 36% / 5% / 43% / 39%
Get Worse...... / 19 / 43 / 13 / 15
Stay the Same...... / 38 / 51 / 35 / 37
(Don’t Know)...... / 7 / 1 / 9 / 8
Q3 / Just thinking about your own personal financial situation, do you feel that over the past 12 months things have gotten better, gotten worse, or stayed about the same for you?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Gotten Better...... / 18% / 17% / 19% / 20%
Gotten Worse...... / 27 / 37 / 25 / 27
Stayed the Same..... / 55 / 46 / 57 / 52
(Don’t Know)...... / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Q4 / Thinking about the last ten years, would you say that the lives of children in America have gotten better, gotten worse or has there been no change?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Gotten Better...... / 17% / 3% / 20% / 19%
Gotten Worse...... / 50 / 27 / 56 / 50
Stayed the Same..... / 31 / 67 / 23 / 29
(Don’t Know)...... / 1 / 3 / 1 / 1
Q5 / When today’s children in the United States grow up, do you think they will be better off or worse off than people are now?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Better off...... / 33% / 17% / 36% / 35%
Worse off...... / 54 / 77 / 49 / 51
(Same/Depends)..... / 11 / 5 / 12 / 13
(Don’t Know)...... / 3 / 1 / 3 / 1
Q6-Q7 / Now I am going to read you some issues that the next President will have to deal with. [READ LIST] Which is the most important issue to you that the next president should address?
(If Choice) And what would you say is the most important issue you think the next president should address? (If needed, read other choices)
Likely Voters / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Rotate / Most / Total / Most / Total / Most / Total / Most / Total
- Strengthening the economy and creating jobs......
- Reducing the federal budget deficit......
- Guaranteeing the financial future of Social Security and Medicare......
- Improving the health, education, and safety of children......
- Reducing taxes and making the tax system fairer......
- Securing the homeland and protecting the nation from future terrorist attacks..
- Making the borders of the country more secure and handling the problem of illegal immigration
- Dealing with issues surrounding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan......
- Protecting the environment and reducing the threat of global warming......
(Other) ...... / 1 / 1 / * / 1 / 1 / 1 / 0 / 0
(Don’t Know)...... / 1 / 1 / 1 / 1
Q8 / In making a voting decision, how important are issues of child well-being such as education, child abuse prevention, and child health care:
- Very important, they are a primary factor in deciding how you vote
- Somewhat important, they are one of several issues you consider
- Not very important, they are not necessarily issues you consider
- Not at all important, they are just not a consideration in deciding how you vote?
Very important...... / 41% / 24% / 45% / 41%
Somewhat important.. / 47 / 49 / 47 / 49
Not very important.... / 11 / 25 / 8 / 9
Not important at all... / 1 / 2 / 1 / 1
(Don’t Know)...... / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Total Important...... / 88% / 74% / 91% / 90%
Total Not Important... / 12 / 26 / 9 / 10
Q9 / How does the federal government do in helping to solve the problems of children and families in Iowa – not enough, about the right amount, or does the federal government do too much?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Not enough...... / 32% / 5% / 37% / 34%
About right...... / 32 / 31 / 32 / 30
Too much...... / 27 / 58 / 20 / 24
(Don’t Know)...... / 10 / 6 / 11 / 13
Q10 / Please tell me which statement you agree with more:
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
- Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of the people, OR
- Government is doing too many things better left to businesses, charities, and individuals
(Depends)..... / 1 / 0 / 1 / 1
(Don’t Know) .. / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0
Q11 / What concerns you more:
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
- The government will go too far in cutting programs that promote the health, education, and safety of children that they will not be prepared to compete in the future, OR
- Without deep cuts in the government now, we will place an impossible burden of debt on today’s children
(Depends)..... / * / * / * / *
(Don’t Know) .. / 2 / * / 2 / 1
Q12 / How much have you heard about the debate in Washington DC about the federal budget – a lot, a little, or nothing at all?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
A Lot...... / 74% / 73% / 74% / 74%
A Little...... / 26 / 27 / 26 / 26
Nothing at All...... / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0
(Don’t Know)...... / * / 0 / * / 0
Q13 / In April, Republicans in the House of Representatives approved a budget for the next 10 years that will cut 6.2 trillion dollars from the federal budget. From what you know, do you favor or oppose this budget plan? (If favor/oppose) Do you strongly (favor/oppose) this plan or only somewhat (favor/oppose)?
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Strongly Favor...... / 26% / 55% / 20% / 23%
Somewhat Favor..... / 27 / 31 / 26 / 25
Somewhat Oppose.... / 15 / 9 / 16 / 15
Strongly Oppose...... / 23 / 2 / 28 / 25
(Don’t Know)...... / 9 / 2 / 11 / 12
Total Favor...... / 53% / 86% / 45% / 48%
Total Oppose...... / 38 / 11 / 44 / 40
Q14 / Let me read you some more information about the House Republicans' budget proposal. The plan cuts $6.2 trillion dollars below the president's budget in order to reduce the deficit and balance the budget within 20 years. The plan cuts domestic spending, including in education and other children’s programs, in the coming year by 72 billion dollars and freezes that spending for five years. It repeals the new health care reform law and makes major long-term cuts in spending for Medicaid and Medicare. It reduces the top corporate and top income tax rate from 35 to 25 percent.
Now that you've heard more information, do you favor or oppose this proposal?
(If favor/oppose) Do you strongly (favor/oppose) this plan or only somewhat (favor/oppose)? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Strongly Favor...... / 23% / 56% / 16% / 20%
Somewhat Favor..... / 22 / 26 / 21 / 22
Somewhat Oppose.... / 15 / 14 / 15 / 15
Strongly Oppose...... / 39 / 3 / 47 / 43
(Don’t Know)...... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1
Total Favor...... / 44% / 81% / 36% / 42%
Total Oppose...... / 54 / 17 / 62 / 57
Q15 / Most states, including Iowa, are facing fiscal challenges and a number of governors have called for the need to have more flexibility to decide how Medicaid dollars are spent in the states. Medicaid is a federal health program that provides care to low-income children, the elderly and the disabled.
Would you favor or oppose allowing governors this flexibility if it meant eliminating insurance coverage for some children?
(If favor/oppose) Do you strongly (favor/oppose) this plan or only somewhat (favor/oppose)? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Strongly Favor...... / 20% / 50% / 14% / 18%
Somewhat Favor..... / 28 / 32 / 27 / 30
Somewhat Oppose.... / 12 / 12 / 12 / 13
Strongly Oppose...... / 38 / 4 / 45 / 38
(Don’t Know)...... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1
Total Favor...... / 48% / 82% / 41% / 48%
Total Oppose...... / 50 / 16 / 57 / 51
Q16
Q20 / Now I am going to read you some statements. Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each one. (Read Item) Do you agree or disagree with that? (If agree/disagree) Do you strongly (agree/disagree) or only somewhat (agree/disagree)?
Agree / Disagree
Strong / Some-what / Some-what / Strong / (DK) / Total
Agree / Total Disagree
- Our political leaders in Washington DC are not doing enough to ensure the health, education and well-being of children today.
GOP Caucus / 9% / 15 / 35 / 40 / * / 25% / 75
Not GOP Caucus / 37% / 28 / 24 / 10 / 1 / 65% / 34
GE Swing / 34% / 29 / 24 / 12 / 1 / 63% / 37
- The President and Congress need to give a higher priority to the health, education and well-being of the country's children.
GOP Caucus / 5% / 29 / 22 / 44 / 1 / 33% / 66
Not GOP Caucus / 42% / 27 / 22 / 8 / 1 / 69% / 30
GE Swing / 38% / 25 / 25 / 12 / 0 / 63% / 37
- With a deficit of more than trillion dollars every year, we need to cut all programs in the federal budget. Cutting programs might be hard but it is necessary to show we are serious about restoring the nation to a sustainable financial path.
GOP Caucus / 63% / 24 / 10 / 2 / 1 / 87% / 12
Not GOP Caucus / 28% / 26 / 16 / 30 / 1 / 53% / 46
GE Swing / 34% / 23 / 15 / 28 / * / 56% / 43
- No one disputes that the federal government needs to cut spending, but it needs to be done smartly. Programs that promote and protect the health, education, and safety of children should be protected from any cuts and those that work for children best should be increased.
GOP Caucus / 5% / 23 / 32 / 39 / 1 / 28% / 71
Not GOP Caucus / 33% / 41 / 19 / 6 / 1 / 74% / 25
GE Swing / 31% / 39 / 20 / 10 / 0 / 70% / 30
- The federal budget deficit cannot be closed by spending cuts alone. We must end the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003 for those making more than 250 thousand a year first before we start cutting education and child health programs.
GOP Caucus / 7% / 20 / 21 / 50 / 2 / 28% / 71
Not GOP Caucus / 65% / 13 / 7 / 15 / * / 78% / 22
GE Swing / 60% / 14 / 10 / 16 / 0 / 74% / 26
Q21
Q28 / Now I am going to read you some proposals people have made. I want you to tell me whether you would be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who made that specific proposal. (Read Item) Would you be more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate who proposed that? (If more/less likely) Would you be much (more/less) likely or somewhat (more/less) likely to vote for that candidate?
More Likely / Less Likely / No Diff / Total
More Likely / Total Less Likely
Ranked by ‘Total More Likely’ / Much / Some-what / Some-what / Much / (DK)
- Launching a major national initiative to reduce the three million reports of child abuse and neglect and the more than 2,000 child abuse deaths that occur every year.
GOP Caucus / 20% / 36 / 16 / 20 / 6 / 2 / 56% / 36
Not GOP Caucus / 41% / 37 / 8 / 7 / 5 / 2 / 78% / 15
GE Swing / 39% / 38 / 8 / 10 / 3 / 2 / 77% / 18
- Increasing funding for student loans, including Pell Grant scholarships for low and moderate-income college students.
GOP Caucus / 6% / 48 / 19 / 24 / 3 / * / 53% / 43
Not GOP Caucus / 38% / 40 / 12 / 9 / * / * / 78% / 21
GE Swing / 35% / 41 / 14 / 10 / * / 0 / 76% / 24
- Eliminating the recent tax cuts passed in the last decade for families earning over $250,000 a year, requiring those families to pay more.
GOP Caucus / 14% / 17 / 26 / 41 / * / 1 / 31% / 68
Not GOP Caucus / 48% / 27 / 9 / 16 / 0 / 0 / 74% / 26
GE Swing / 47% / 27 / 9 / 17 / * / * / 74% / 26
- Providing Head Start, a program that helps pre-school children from disadvantaged backgrounds, so every eligible child can attend a program instead.
GOP Caucus / 9% / 29 / 32 / 29 / 1 / 0 / 38% / 62
Not GOP Caucus / 35% / 37 / 20 / 6 / 1 / 1 / 73% / 26
GE Swing / 34% / 36 / 22 / 8 / * / 0 / 70% / 30
- Increasing subsidies for child care so more middle class working families can afford care.
GOP Caucus / 4% / 16 / 40 / 33 / 6 / 1 / 20% / 73
Not GOP Caucus / 30% / 41 / 19 / 9 / 1 / * / 71% / 28
GE Swing / 27% / 38 / 22 / 12 / * / * / 65% / 34
- Expanding of after-school opportunities for children and youth.
GOP Caucus / 5% / 24 / 24 / 36 / 9 / 2 / 29% / 60
Not GOP Caucus / 30% / 36 / 17 / 5 / 10 / 1 / 66% / 22
GE Swing / 27% / 34 / 20 / 8 / 9 / 2 / 62% / 28
- Having the federal government work with states like Iowa to provide greater funding so that all parents who want to send their children to a high-quality pre-kindergarten or kindergarten program can afford to do so.
GOP Caucus / 3% / 18 / 35 / 42 / 1 / 0 / 22% / 78
Not GOP Caucus / 23% / 41 / 16 / 19 / 1 / * / 64% / 35
GE Swing / 22% / 36 / 19 / 22 / * / * / 59% / 41
- Reducing the corporate tax rate from 35 to 25 percent.
GOP Caucus / 45% / 17 / 13 / 12 / 11 / 2 / 62% / 25
Not GOP Caucus / 18% / 21 / 16 / 35 / 8 / 2 / 39% / 51
GE Swing / 20% / 20 / 16 / 35 / 8 / 1 / 40% / 51
Now I have some statistical questions to ensure we have a representative sample.
Q21 / Sex / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE SwingMale...... / 48% / 54% / 47% / 49%
Female...... / 52 / 46 / 53 / 51
Q30 / What is your age? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
18-34...... / 11% / 10% / 12% / 12%
35-44...... / 17 / 16 / 17 / 15
45-54...... / 23 / 27 / 22 / 29
55-64...... / 24 / 19 / 25 / 18
65+...... / 25 / 28 / 25 / 26
Q31 / Are you a grandparent of a child under 18? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Yes...... / 40% / 41% / 40% / 41%
No...... / 60 / 59 / 60 / 59
Q32 / Are you currently married, separated, divorced, widowed, or have you never been married? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Married...... / 72% / 80% / 71% / 70%
Sep/Div/Wid...... / 21 / 16 / 22 / 23
Never married...... / 7 / 4 / 7 / 7
Q33 / Are you the parent of a child under 18 currently living in your household? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Yes...... / 27% / 24% / 27% / 29%
No...... / 73 / 76 / 72 / 71
Q34 / What is the last grade you completed in school? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Less than High School... / *% / *% / *% / *%
High School Graduate... / 24 / 17 / 25 / 27
Some College/Technical. / 25 / 31 / 24 / 21
College Degree (4 Year).. / 33 / 40 / 32 / 34
Graduate Degree...... / 17 / 11 / 18 / 18
Q35 / When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative or conservative? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Liberal...... / 20% / 0% / 25% / 9%
Somewhat liberal...... / 17 / 0 / 21 / 24
Moderate...... / 13 / 1 / 15 / 18
Smwt conservative...... / 31 / 29 / 31 / 43
Conservative...... / 18 / 70 / 7 / 6
(DK/Refused)...... / 1 / 0 / 1 / *
Total Liberal...... / 37% / 0% / 45% / 32%
Total Conservative...... / 49 / 99 / 38 / 49
Q36 / Thinking back on all the votes you have cast in the past several years in national and state elections, which one of the following statements best represents how you have voted in these elections?:
All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
- I vote for the Democrats a large majority of the time......
- I vote for the Democrats a little more often than for the Republicans......
- I split my votes pretty evenly between the Democrats and the Republicans......
- I vote for the Republicans a little more often than for the Democrats......
- I vote for the Republicans a large majority of the time......
(Don’t Know) ...... / 1 / 0 / 1 / 0
Total Democrat...... / 37% / *% / 47% / 30%
Total Swing...... / 53 / 23 / 60 / 100
Total Republican...... / 44 / 95 / 33 / 40
Q37 / How well would you say the phrase “Tea Party supporter” describes you – very well, somewhat well, not too well, or not well at all? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Very Well...... / 10% / 22% / 7% / 8%
Somewhat Well...... / 24 / 43 / 19 / 24
Not too Well...... / 21 / 21 / 21 / 24
Not Well at All...... / 43 / 13 / 50 / 44
(DK/Refused)...... / 2 / 2 / 2 / 1
Total Well...... / 34% / 65% / 27% / 32%
Total Not Well...... / 64 / 33 / 71 / 68
Q38 / Just to make sure we have a representative sample, could you please tell me your race or ethnicity? (If Necessary) Well, most people consider themselves black, white, or Hispanic? / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
White...... / 96% / 99% / 96% / 95%
Black/Hispanic...... / 3 / 0 / 4 / 5
(Other) ...... / * / 1 / 0 / 0
(Refused)...... / * / 1 / * / 0
Q39 / Is your total household income: (READ CHOICES) / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
Less than $25,000...... / 12% / 2% / 15% / 14%
$25,000-$34,999...... / 10 / 3 / 12 / 10
$35,000-$49,999...... / 12 / 14 / 12 / 12
$50,000-$74,999...... / 21 / 26 / 20 / 19
$75,000-$99,999...... / 15 / 22 / 13 / 14
$100,000+...... / 17 / 22 / 16 / 14
(Refused)...... / 13 / 12 / 13 / 16
Q40 / Congressional District / All / GOP Caucus / Not GOP Caucus / GE Swing
CD #1...... / 25% / 19% / 27% / 27%
CD #2...... / 26 / 21 / 27 / 28
CD #3...... / 25 / 29 / 24 / 21
CD #4...... / 24 / 31 / 22 / 24
Every Child Matters Education Fund
Washington DC – Des Moines IowaPage 1