Agency’s Project ID: P090731

GEFSEC Project ID: 2552

Country: Dominica; St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Project Title: Implementation of Pilot Adaptation Measures in coastal areas of Dominica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines.

GEF Agency: World Bank

Other Executing Agency(ies): Dominica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent & the Grenadines. Caribbean Climate Change Center

Duration: 4 years

GEF Focal Area:

GEF Operational Program: Pilot Operational Approach to Adaptation

GEF Strategic Priority: Adaptation Pipeline Entry Date: November 15, 2005

Estimated Starting Date:

Project Executive Summary

GEF Council Intersessional Work Program Submission

Contribution to Key Indicators of the Business Plan: No less than six pilot adaptation measures successfully implemented (no less than two in each country) demonstrating the costs and benefis of adaptation and addressing impacts of climate change on biodiversity and land degradation. Development of National Climate Resilient Sustainable Development Strategy, based on the lessons from these measures in at least one country.

Record of endorsement on behalf of the Government(s):

Mr. Lloyd Pascal, GEF Focal Point, Dominica
Dr. Reynold Murray, GEF Focal Point, St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Mr. Keny D. Anthony, Prime Minister, St. Lucia / Date: May 20, 2004
Date: May 24, 2004
Date: December 2, 2005
Financing Plan (US$)
GEF Project/Component
Project / 2,100,000
PDF A
PDF B / 300,000
PDF C

Sub-Total GEF

/ 2,400,000

Co-financing

GEF Agency
Government / 1,500,000
Bilateral
NGOs
Others / 2,500,000
Sub-Total Co-financing: / 4,000,000
Total Project Financing: / 6,600,000
Financing for Associated Activities If Any:
Leveraged Resources If Any:

*Details provided under the Financial Modality and Cost Effectiveness section

Approved on behalf of the World Bank. This proposal has been prepared in accordance with GEF policies and procedures and meets the standards of the GEF Project Review Criteria for work program inclusion

Steve Gorman
IA/ExA Coordinator / Jocelyne Albert
Project Contact Person
Date: January 20, 2006 / Tel. and email:202-473-3458,


A. Project Summary

1. Project rationale, objectives, outputs/outcomes, and activities.

Global climate is changing rapidly. The 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) concluded that, with the continuing emission of greenhouse gases, the mean surface temperature may increase between 1.5 and 5.8 degrees Celsius during the next 100 years. Documentation being used in the preparation of the Fourth Assessment Report, due to be released by the year 2007 corroborates the range of the projected increase.[1] A change of this magnitude is unprecedented and will result in significant impacts to be felt at a global scale. Along with changes in mean climatic conditions, the biosphere potentially faces irreversible and catastrophic system impacts associated, for example, with the reduction of thermo-haline circulation, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet (Epstein, 2005), the subsidence of small islands, increases in intensity of hurricanes (Webster et. al., 2005), and the elimination of permafrost in Siberia and Northern Canada. Climate change is the most serious challenge being faced by the global ecosystem. Overall, these impacts will affect in particular, vulnerable regions, such as small island states.

Climate change threatens the stability and integrity of marine and insular systems. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have been recognized as most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and as requiring greater attention by the international community at large. The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of IPCC has documented the anticipated trends in sea level rise (SLR), increases in sea surface temperature, as well as changes in the precipitation cycle and patterns of extreme events, among the impacts that may severely affect the sustainable development prospects of Caribbean SIDS. The Report also highlights the severity of their expected climatic shifts, the low level of their economic development which restricts their ability to cope with expected changes without great economic stress.

The Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) region to which the three participating countries belong is characterized by a rich biodiversity endowment, which, in combination with its isolation from other areas has resulted in relatively high rates of national and regional endemism. One recent survey of the world’s biodiversity hotspots identifies the Caribbean as the fifth ranking “hotspot” and one of the highest priorities in any global strategy for biodiversity conservation and sustainable management[2]. In a separate study, the Eastern Caribbean region was classified as “an unique marine ecosystem of the tropical northwest Atlantic province” and ranked as the highest priority within the province, in terms of its conservation status (most threatened)[3]. The principal ecosystems are dry and humid tropical forests, wetlands and tidal flats, sandy and rocky beaches, coral reefs, seagrass beds, mangroves, offshore islets, as well as extensive karst and volcanic areas with their distinctive biodiversity associations. The reef, seagrass and mangrove systems of this area are recognized as among the most productive in the world[4].

Climate change will affect the physical and biological characteristics of the Caribbean Sea and their coastal areas, modifying their ecosystem structure and functioning. Caribbean nations depending on reef and coastal systems face losses of fisheries and shorelines. Likewise, wetlands, including reefs, atolls, keys and mangroves in the Caribbean are among those ecosystems considered to be most vulnerable to climate change because of their limited adaptive capacity. For example, coral reefs are expected to be impacted detrimentally if sea surface temperatures increase by more than one degree Celsius, above the seasonal maximum temperature. In addition, acidification of the ocean will affect the ability of reef plants and animals to calcify and thus reduce the ability of reefs to grow vertically and keep pace with rising sea levels.

Also, in near-shore marine and coastal areas, many wetlands and coastal forests will be affected by changes in sea level and storm surges. Mangroves and coastal lagoons are expected to undergo rapid change and perhaps be lost altogether as functioning ecosystems. Low-lying coastal areas and associated wetlands could also be displaced by salt water habitats, disrupting fresh-water based ecosystems. Such changes are likely to result in dislocation of migratory birds and aquatic species, not tolerant to increased salinity or flooding. The combined pressures of sea level rise and coastal development could also reduce the availability of inter-tidal areas, resulting in loss of feeding habitats to catastrophic declines in wintering shorebirds. Migratory and resident birds, mammals and fish may lose important staging, feeding and breeding grounds that are difficult to replace under competing demands for scarce land. All these may result in impacts to commercially important fish species and a pole-ward shift of marine production, seriously affecting the sustainability of fisheries.

Climate variability and intensification of hurricanes pose a significant threat to the sustainable development of Small Island Developing Sates. There has been an increase in the intensity and number of hurricanes in the Caribbean basin since 1970, associated to warmer sea surface temperatures. This has major implications for coastal zones in most countries on the Caribbean Basin, affecting coastal infrastructure and ecosystems and possibly forcing permanent displacement of populations from coastal zones. The intensification of hurricanes also highlights the need for additional efforts in the identification and development of measures to adapt to climate change and preparedness actions. Every 2 ½ years a country in the Caribbean can expect to be hit by a natural disaster, the cost of which can equal as much as 100% of GDP.

The region economic activity is very dependent on a natural resource base which is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The CARICOM countries are highly dependent on natural resources and are thus very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The potential economic impact of climate change on the CARICOM countries is estimated at between US$1.4 and $9.0 billion for the impacts that could be estimated assuming no adaptation to climate change. The wide range for the estimate of potential economic impacts is due more to the uncertainty relating to the values and assumptions used than to the uncertainty about climate change.[5] In the low scenario the total impact averages about 5.6 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), ranging from 3.5 percent in Trinidad and Tobago to 16 percent in Guyana. In the high scenario the total impact averages over 34 percent of GDP, ranging from 22 percent in Trinidad and Tobago to 103 percent in Guyana.

The largest category of impacts is the loss of land, tourism infrastructure, housing, other buildings, and infrastructure due to sea-level rise. For example, the recently concluded vulnerability assessment for insular areas in the eastern Caribbean suggests a loss of 17 percent of the land area on the island of San Andrés in the next 80 years.[6] These losses represent 65–75 percent of the total economic impacts. Most of the remaining impacts are due to reduced tourism demand, caused by rising temperatures and loss of beaches, coral reefs, and other ecosystems (15–20 percent) and property damage due to the increased intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms (7–11 percent).[7] The increased intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms may also lead to more injuries and deaths. The impacts on agriculture are potentially significant for CARICOM countries. Reduced rainfall, if confirmed, could have serious effects on health and economic activity and could combine with sea-level rises to reduce the quality and availability of aquifers.

Table 2, below illustrates some of the effects of climate change on the natural resource base and how it affects economic activity in the region.

Table 2. Vulnerability of Ecosystem Services and
Implications for Economic Activity in small island states in the Caribbean

Issue or Resource Vulnerable to
Climate Change / Potential Effect of
Climate Change / Sectors at
Greatest Risk* / Economic Relevance**
Freshwater availability / Reduced precipitation; increased evaporation and saline intrusion from sea-level rise. / Water resources, agriculture and forestry / Water supply is anticipated to be a bottleneck for economic activity and a serious health concern. All water-using sectors would be affected.
Degradation of
marine and coastal
ecosystems / Sea-level rise and changes in sea temperature can affect important ecosystems such as mangroves, fishing grounds, and coral reefs. / Fisheries and
tourism / Fisheries account for a sizable share of GDP. Tourism accounts for up to 83% of GDP and is highly dependant on the marine ecosystem.
Land flooding / Sea-level rise will result in flooding of coastal areas. / Tourism, agriculture, and forestry / Most tourism activities are located in the coastal zone. Significant capital investment assets and infrastructure could be affected.
Impacts on land ecosystems / Climatic extremes can affect important crops such as Banana. Heavy rainfall increases the potential for pest and diseases and causes excessive soil erosion. Drought conditions affect productivity, as the plants do not yield their optimum production. / Agriculture / In St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Census figures for 2000 show that 60% of the population is involved in agriculture occupying 43% of the land mass
Increased climate variability / Climate change may
increase extreme events such as precipitation
intensity, tropical storms, or droughts. / Multisectoral / The cost of hurricanes and other
natural disasters in the Caribbean
region has been estimated at several hundred million dollars over the past decade. These costs continue to increase.

Project development objective

The project development objective is to support efforts by Dominica, Saint Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to implement specific (integrated) pilot adaptation measures addressing the impacts of climate change on the natural resource base of the region, focused on biodiversity and land degradation along coastal and near-coastal areas. Reducing these impacts will induce economic benefits in the tourism, fisheries, agriculture and forestry sectors, help maintain the resource base upon which these economic activities rely and promote climate resilient sustainable development. More importantly, the experience gained through these local level activities will assist and inform the policy decision making process and is expected to influence the enactment of climate resilient sustainable development policies.

The ultimate goal is to make efficient and integrated use of the capacity built in past operations, and limited human and financial resources to advance with practical steps on the actual implementation of adaptation measures and directly influence the adoption of policies that will promote climate resilient development. The project provides an opportunity to seek synergies in support of various multilateral environment agreements and is promoting and facilitating more effective coordination. This will assist in achieving a high level of integration between these different conventions at a practical field level. The project also seeks to produce knowledge of global value on how to implement adaptation measures in small island states that can be applied in other countries in the region, not participating in SPAC and even for islands in other regions of the world. The value of these early lessons will make the GEF resources applied, more cost-effective in the medium term.

The project complements the goals of the Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in the Caribbean (MACC) Project and applies the lessons and information gathered through the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC) project by piloting the implementation of adaptation measures in countries that have already taken mainstreaming decisions and seek to execute specific measures to address the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and land degradation. This will be achieved through: (i) the detailed design of pilot adaptation measures to reduce expected negative impacts of climate change on marine and terrestrial biodiversity and land degradation; and (ii) the implementation of pilot adaptation investments. The SPAC project will also pioneer the establishment of institutional and operational frameworks for addressing holistically multiple convention objectives in accordance with national priorities, thereby serving as a model for other regions and countries. The ultimate goal is to make efficient and integrated use of the limited human and financial resources for these technical areas and illustrate how adaptation measures can be effectively implemented at the national and community levels.

Project components The project would support three activities (components) prioritised in national adaptation strategies and refined through a series of regional and national consultations.