Ogurtsov, M.G., Kocharov, G.E., Lindholm, M., Meriläinen, J. & Eronen, M. 2002. Evidence of solar variation in the tree-ring based climate reconstruction of northern Fennoscandia. Solar Physics 205 (2): 403-417).
Abstract. Analyses of the summer temperature anomalies in northern Fennoscandia for A.D.
8–1991 and mean annual temperature in the northern hemisphere for A.D. 1000–1990 (both reconstructed by means of dendrochronological methods) are performed using Fourier and wavelet approaches. It is revealed that the century-type (65–140 yr) periodicity is present in both series during most of the full time range. A comparison of the northern Fennoscandian temperature record with a variety of indicators of solar activity (direct measurements and proxies) shows that this centuryscale periodicity most probably was forced by a centennial cycle of solar activity (Gleissberg cycle). Despite the fact that the connection between the centennial variation of global northern hemispheric temperature and that of the Sun’s activity is weaker, a link between the two can also not be excluded. The results obtained give us new evidence of the reality of the solar–climate link over a record long-time scale (at least during the last millennium). Variable length of the century-long temperature periodicity may reflect the corresponding changes in the length of the Gleissberg solar cycle. The effects, which can obscure the Sun’s influence on the global hemispheric climate, are discussed.
Ogurtsov, M.G., Jungner, H., Kocharov, G.E., Lindholm, M., Eronen, M. & Nagovitsyn, Yu.. 2003. On the link between northern Fennoscandial climate and length of the quasi- eleven-year cycle in galactic cosmic ray flux. Solar Physics 218 (1-2): 345-357.
Abstract. Bidecadal fluctuations in terrestrial climate were analyzed. It was shown that this variability might arise if Earth’s climate reacts to galactic cosmic-ray intensity, integrated over its full quasi-11-year cycle. It was further shown that this integral effect should also lead to an effective link between climate and the duration of the quasi-11-year cycle in cosmic ray flux. That, in turn, must result in appearance of some connection between climate and the length of the solar cycle, which is currently a topic of active debate. Analyses of temperature proxies, obtained for northern Fennoscandia, confirmed the connection of the climate in this region and the length of the cycle in galactic cosmic-ray intensity. Decadal and bidecadal variability of integrated cosmic-ray flux was quantitatively estimated.
Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming
St PETERSBURG, January 15 (RIA Novosti) - Rising levels of carbon dioxide and other gases emitted through human activity, generally believed to trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere, are an effect rather than the cause of global warming, a prominent Russian scientist said Monday.
Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the St. Petersburgbased Pulkovo Observatory, said global warming stems from an increase in the sun's activity. His view contradicts the international scientific consensus that climate change is attributable to the emission of greenhouse gases generated by industrial activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation.
"Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy - almost throughout the last century - growth in its intensity," Abdusamatov told RIA Novosti in an interview.
"It is no secret that when they go up, temperatures in the world's oceans trigger the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the common view that man's industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect relations."
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a UN panel of thousands of international scientists, widely regarded as an authority on climate change issues, has for many years held a consensus view that most of the warming experienced over the last half-century has been attributable to human activities.
Abdusamatov, a doctor of mathematics and physics, is one of a small number of scientists around the world who continue to contest the view of the IPCC, the national science academies of the G8 nations, and other prominent scientific bodies. He said an examination of ice cores from wells over three kilometers (1.5 miles) deep in Greenland and the Antarctic indicates that the Earth experienced periods of global warming even before the industrial age.
Abdusamatov even disputed the plausibility of the greenhouse effect, claiming it fails to take into account the effective transmission of heat to the outer layers of atmosphere. Scientists have known about the greenhouse effect since the 19th century. The phenomenon by which gases such as methane and CO2 warm the troposphere by absorbing some of the infra-red heat reflected by the earth's surface has the effect of a global thermostat, sustaining global temperatures within ranges that allow life on the planet to thrive.
However, Abdusamatov insisted: "Ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated. Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."
The upper layers of the world's oceans are - much to climatologists' surprise – becoming cooler, which is a clear indication that the Earth has hit its temperature ceiling already, and that solar radiation levels are falling and will eventually lead to a worldwide cold spell, Abdusamatov said.
"Instead of professed global warming, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by 2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060," he said, adding that this period of global freeze will last some 50 years, after which the temperatures will go up again.
"There is no need for the Kyoto Protocol now, and it does not have to come into force until at least a hundred years from now - a global freeze will come about regardless of whether or not industrialized countries put a cap on their greenhouse gas emissions," Abdusamatov said.
The 1998 Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which sets greenhouse gas emission targets for the period up to 2012, entered into force two years ago following ratification by 141 countries, which together account for over 55% of the world's gas pollutions. Russia ratified the treaty in November 2004, making it legally binding. But the world's top polluter, the United States, is still reluctant to sign on for fear the treaty's emission
commitments will slow down the country's economic growth.Science & Technology
Russian scientist says Earth could soon face new Ice Age
ST. PETERSBURG, January 22 (RIA Novosti) - Temperatures on Earth have stabilized in the past decade, and the planet should brace itself for a new Ice Age rather than global warming, a Russian scientist said in an interview with RIA Novosti Tuesday.
"Russian and foreign research data confirm that global temperatures in 2007 were practically similar to those in 2006, and, in general, identical to 1998-2006 temperatures, which, basically, means that the Earth passed the peak of global warming in 1998-2005," said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of a space research lab at the Pulkovo observatory in St. Petersburg.
According to the scientist, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has risen more than 4% in the past decade, but global warming has practically stopped. It confirms the theory of "solar" impact on changes in the Earth's climate, because the amount of solar energy reaching the planet has drastically decreased during the same period, the scientist said.
Had global temperatures directly responded to concentrations of "greenhouse" gases in the atmosphere, they would have risen by at least 0.1 Celsius in the past ten years, however, it never happened, he said.
"A year ago, many meteorologists predicted that higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the year 2007 the hottest in the last decade, but, fortunately, these predictions did not become reality," Abdusamatov said.
He also said that in 2008, global temperatures would drop slightly, rather than rise, due to unprecedentedly low solar radiation in the past 30 years, and would continue decreasing even if industrial emissions of carbon dioxide reach record levels.
By 2041, solar activity will reach its minimum according to a 200-year cycle, and a deep cooling period will hit the Earth approximately in 2055-2060. It will last for about 45-65 years, the scientist added.
"By the mid-21st century the planet will face another Little Ice Age, similar to the Maunder Minimum, because the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041," he said.
The Maunder Minimum occurred between 1645 and 1715, when only about 50 spots appeared on the Sun, as opposed to the typical 40,000-50,000 spots.
It coincided with the middle and coldest part of the so called Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America were subjected to bitterly cold winters.
"However, the thermal inertia of the world's oceans and seas will delay a 'deep cooling' of the planet, and the new Ice Age will begin sometime during 2055-2060, probably lasting for several decades," Abdusamatov said.
Therefore, the Earth must brace itself for a growing ice cap, rather than rising waters in global oceans caused by ice melting.
Mankind will face serious economic, social, and demographic consequences of the coming Ice Age because it will directly affect more than 80% of the earth's population, the scientist concluded.
The Sun Also Sets
By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Thursday, February 07, 2008 4:20 PM PT
Climate Change: Not every scientist is part of Al Gore's mythical "consensus." Scientists worried about a new ice age seek funding to better observe something bigger than your SUV — the sun.
Related Topics: Global Warming
Back in 1991, before Al Gore first shouted that the Earth was in the balance, the Danish Meteorological Institute released a study using data that went back centuries that showed that global temperatures closely tracked solar cycles.
To many, those data were convincing. Now, Canadian scientists are seeking additional funding for more and better "eyes" with which to observe our sun, which has a bigger impact on Earth's climate than all the tailpipes and smokestacks on our planet combined.
And they're worried about global cooling, not warming.
Kenneth Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada's National Research Council, is among those looking at the sun for evidence of an increase in sunspot activity.
Solar activity fluctuates in an 11-year cycle. But so far in this cycle, the sun has been disturbingly quiet. The lack of increased activity could signal the beginning of what is known as a Maunder Minimum, an event which occurs every couple of centuries and can last as long as a century.
Such an event occurred in the 17th century. The observation of sunspots showed extraordinarily low levels of magnetism on the sun, with little or no 11-year cycle.
This solar hibernation corresponded with a period of bitter cold that began around 1650 and lasted, with intermittent spikes of warming, until 1715. Frigid winters and cold summers during that period led to massive crop failures, famine and death in Northern Europe.
Tapping reports no change in the sun's magnetic field so far this cycle and warns that if the sun remains quiet for another year or two, it may indicate a repeat of that period of drastic cooling of the Earth, bringing massive snowfall and severe weather to the Northern Hemisphere.
Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope that he calls a "stethoscope for the sun." But he and his colleagues need better equipment.
In Canada, where radio-telescopic monitoring of the sun has been conducted since the end of World War II, a new instrument, the next-generation solar flux monitor, could measure the sun's emissions more rapidly and accurately.
As we have noted many times, perhaps the biggest impact on the Earth's climate over time has been the sun.
For instance, researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Solar Research in Germany report the sun has been burning more brightly over the last 60 years, accounting for the 1 degree Celsius increase in Earth's temperature over the last 100 years.
R. Timothy Patterson, professor of geology and director of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Center of Canada's Carleton University, says that "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales."
Rather, he says, "I and the first-class scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent correlations between the regular fluctuations of the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and the stars are the ultimate source of energy on this planet."
Patterson, sharing Tapping's concern, says: "Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth."
"Solar activity has overpowered any effect that CO2 has had before, and it most likely will again," Patterson says. "If we were to have even a medium-sized solar minimum, we could be looking at a lot more bad effects than 'global warming' would have had."
In 2005, Russian astronomer Khabibullo Abdusamatov made some waves — and not a few enemies in the global warming "community" — by predicting that the sun would reach a peak of activity about three years from now, to be accompanied by "dramatic changes" in temperatures.
A Hoover Institution Study a few years back examined historical data and came to a similar conclusion.
"The effects of solar activity and volcanoes are impossible to miss. Temperatures fluctuated exactly as expected, and the pattern was so clear that, statistically, the odds of the correlation existing by chance were one in 100," according to Hoover fellow Bruce Berkowitz.
The study says that "try as we might, we simply could not find any relationship between industrial activity, energy consumption and changes in global temperatures."
The study concludes that if you shut down all the world's power plants and factories, "there would not be much effect on temperatures."
But if the sun shuts down, we've got a problem. It is the sun, not the Earth, that's hanging in the balance.
Opinion piece by Dr Zbigniew Jaworowski
20 September 2008
Sun Warms and Cools the Earth
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Recent and Future Cooling
Both surface and troposphere observations suggest that we are entering a cool phase of climate.These observations are in a total disagreement with IPCC climatic model projections, based on anassumption that the current Modern Warm Period is due to anthropogenic emissions of CO2 (IPCCAR4,2007) . The annual increment of global industrial CO2 emission increased from 1.1% in1990-1999 to more than 3% in 2000- 2004 (Raupach et al., 2007) , and is still increasing. Thus,according to IPCC projections the global temperature should be increasing now more rapidly thanbefore, but instead we see a cold spell. It is clear that cooling is not related to the rapidlyincreasing CO2 emission. Its cause is rather the Sun’s activity, which recently droppedprecipitously from its 60 year long record in the second half of the 20th century, the highest in thepast 11 centuries (Usoskin et al., 2003) , to an extremely low current level.
Sun activity is reflected in the number of sunspots, which normally shows an 11-year periodicity(or 131 month plus or minus 14 month). The current sunspot cycle no. 23 had a maximum in2001 (150 sunspots in September). NASA officially declared it over in March 2006, with a forecastthat the next cycle no. 24 will be 20 to 50 % stronger than the old. But until now the Sunremained quiet, with only few sunspots sighted both from the old cycle, and from the new onedeclared again by NASA to start on December 11, 2007. However, the Sun’s activity was still lowin the first part of 2008 (NOAA, 2008) , and August 2008 was (probably) the first month withoutsunspots since 1913 (some observations noticed not a “spot” but a tiny short-lived “pore” on 21-22 August). It seems that we still remain in the cycle 23.
The unusually long low activity of Sun suggests that we may be entering a next MaunderMinimum, a period from 1645 to 1715, when almost no sunspots were visible. This was thecoldest part of the Little Ice Age (1250—1900), when rivers in Europe and America were oftenfrozen, and the Baltic Sea was crossed on ice by armies and travelers. Other authors suggest thatthe Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015, reaching a deep freezearound 2050-2060, similar to cooling that took place in 1645-1715, when temperature decreasedby 1 to 2oC (Abdussamatov, 2004; Abdussamatov, 2005; Abdussamatov, 2006) . Another analysisof sunspot cycles for the period 1882-2000, projected that the cooling will start in the solar cycle25, resulting in minimum temperature around 2021-2026 (Bashkirtsev and Mashnich, 2003) . Along-term cooling, related to Sun’s activity, was also projected for the period around 2100 and2200 (Landscheidt, 1995; Landscheidt, 2003).
The current Modern Warm Period is one of innumerous former natural warm climatic phases. Itstemperature is lower than in the 4 former warm periods over the past 1500 years (Grudd, 2008) .Unfortunately it seems that it comes to an end, and the recent climatic fluctuations suggest thatperhaps a new, full scale ice age is imminent. It may come in the next 50 to 400 years (Broecker,1995; Bryson, 1993) , with ice caps covering northern parts of America and Eurasia.
Is the Global Warming Bubble About to Burst?