Abarbanell, JS, and VL Bernard (1992). Tests of Analysts Overreaction/Underreaction To

Abarbanell, JS, and VL Bernard (1992). Tests of Analysts Overreaction/Underreaction To

預測市場參考文獻彙整

更新:2009/8/13

Abarbanell, JS, and VL Bernard (1992). “Tests of Analysts’ Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior.” Journal of Finance 47 (3): 1181–207.

Abramowicz, Michael (2004). ‘Information Markets, Administrative Decisionmaking, and Predictive Cost-Benefit Analysis’, University of Chicago Law Review 71(3): 933-1020.

Abramowicz, Michael (2006a). ‘Deliberative Information Markets for Small Groups’, in Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock (eds) Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, Washington D.C.: AEI-Brookings Joint Center, pp. 101-125.

Abramowicz, Michael (2006b). ‘Predictive Decisionmaking’, Virginia Law Review, 92(1): 69–122.

Abramowicz, Michael (2008). Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, New Haven: Yale University Press.

Allen, Ken, Kevin Daniels, Darby Kopp, and Brian Murdock (2004). ‘Analysis of 2004 Political Futures Markets,’ mimeo.

Antweiler, Werner and Thomas W. Ross (2004). ‘The 1997 UBC Election Stock Market’, Canadian Business Economics 6(2): 15-22.

Arrow, Kenneth J. (1950). ‘A Difficulty in the Concept of Social Welfare’, Journal of Political Economy, 58(4): 328–346.

Arrow, Kenneth J. (1963). Social choice and individual values, New Haven: Yale University Press.

Arrow, Kenneth J. (1972). ‘General Economic Equilibrium: Purpose, Analytic Techniques, Collective Choice’, in Assar Lindbeck (ed) Nobel Lectures, Economics 1969-1980, Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co, pp. 109-131.

Bean, Glenn (2005). Decision Market Predictions: Separating Efficiency and Bias, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Stanford University. Available from: <http://economics.stanford.edu/files/Theses/Theses_2005/Bean.pdf>

Berg, Joyce and Thomas Rietz (2002). Longshots, Overconfidence and Efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market, Working Paper, Henry B. Tippie College of Business Administration, University of Iowa. Available from: <http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/Longshots_2002January.pdf>

Berg, Joyce and Thomas Rietz (2003). ‘Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems’, Information System Frontiers 5(1): 79–93.

Berg, Joyce and Thomas Rietz (2006). ‘The Iowa Electronic Market: Stylized Facts and Open Issues’, in Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock (eds) Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, Washington D.C.: AEI-Brookings Joint Center, pp. 142-169.

Berg, Joyce, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz (2003). ‘Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error in Prediction Markets’, mimeo, University of Iowa.

Berg, Joyce, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz (2008). ‘Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run’, International Journal of Forecasting 24(2): 285–300.

Berg, Joyce, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz (2003). Accuracy and Forecast Standard Error of Prediction Markets, Working Paper, Henry B. Tippie College of Business Administration, University of Iowa. Available from: < http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/forecasting.pdf>

Berg, Joyce, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson and Thomas Rietz (2001). ‘Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research’, in Charles Plot and Vernon Smith (eds) Handbook of Experimental Economic Results, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 742-751.

Bodie, Zvi, Alex, Kane and Alan J. Marcus (2003). Essentials of Investment, New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

Borghesi, Richard (2005). ‘Underreaction to New Information: Evidence from an Online Exchange’, mimeo, Texas State University.

Bothos, Efthimios, Dimitris Apostolou, and Gregoris Mentzas (2009). ‘Collective Intelligence for Idea Management with Internet-based Information Aggregation Markets’, Internet Research 19(1): 26-41.

Boyle, Glenn and Steen Videbeck (2005). ‘A Primer on Information Markets’, mimeo, Victoria University of Wellington.

Brüggelambert, Gregor (2004). ‘Information and Efficiency in Political Stock Markets: Using Computerized Markets to Predict Election Results’, Applied Economics 36(7): 742-768.

Camerer, Colin (1998). ‘Can Asset Markets be Manipulated? A Field Experiment with Racetrack Betting’, Journal of Political Economy 106(3): 457-482.

Chen, Kay-Yut and Charles Plott (2002). Information Aggregation Mechanisms: Concept, Design and Implementation for a Sales Forecasting Problem, Working Paper No. 1131, California Institute of Technology.

Comerton-Forde, Carole and Tālis J. Putniņš (2008). Pricing Accuracy, Liquidity and Trader Behavior with Closing Price Manipulation, Working Paper, University of Sydney.

Cowgill, Bo, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz (2009). ‘Using Prediction Market Prices to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google’, mimeo. , accessed May 28, 2011.

Crawford, C. Merle and Anthony C. Di Benedetto (2006). New Products Management, Boston, Mass: McGraw-Hill Higher Education.

Dahan, Ely, Arina Soukhoroukova and Martin Spann (2007). Preference Markets: Organizing Securities Markets for Opinion Surveys with Infinite Scalability, Working Paper, University of California, Los Angeles.

Dahan, Ely, Adlar J. Kim, Andrew W. Lo, Tomaso Poggio, and Nicholas T. Chan (2008). Securities Trading of Concepts (STOC), Working Paper, Available from: < >

Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien (2008). ‘Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?’, Public Opinion Quarterly 72(2): 190-215.

Fama, E F. (1970). ‘Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work’, Journal of Finance 25: 383–417.

Forsythe, Robert, Forrest Nelson, George R. Neumann, Jack Wright. (1992) ‘Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market’, American Economic Review, 82 (5): 1142-1161.

Forsythe, Robert, Murray Frank, Vasu Krishnamurthy, and Thomas W. Ross (1995). ‘Using Market Prices to Predict Election Results: The 1993 UBC Election Stock Market,’ Canadian Journal of Economics 28 (4a): 770-793.

Forsythe, R., Thomas A. Rietz and Thomas W. Ross (1999). ‘Wishes, Expectations and Actions: A Survey on Price Formation in Election Stock Markets’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 39(1): 83-110.

Foutz, Natasha Zhang, and Wolfgang Jank (2007). 'The Wisdom of Crowds: Pre-release Forecasting via Functional Shape Analysis of the Online Virtual Stock Market' (May 7, 2007). Available at SSRN:

Franssen, Maarten (2005). ‘Arrow’s Theorem, Multi-criteria Decision Problems and Multi-attribute Preferences in Engineering Design’, Research in Engineering Design 16(1-2): 42-56.

Garfield, Monica J., Nolan J. Taylor, Alan R. Dennis, and John W. Satzinger (2001). ‘Modifying Paradigms - Individual Differences, Creativity Techniques, and Exposure to Ideas in Group Idea Generation’, Information Systems Research 12(3): 322-333.

Graefe, Andreas, and Christof Weinhardt (2008). ‘Long-Term Forecasting With Prediction Markets – A Field Experiment on Applicability and Expert Confidence,’ Journal of Prediction Markets (2008) 2(2): 71-92.

Green, Kesten C., J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe (2007). ‘Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared’, Foresight – The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 8: 17-20.

Griffiths-Hemans, Janice, Rajiv Grover (2006). ‘Setting the Stage for Creative New Products: Investigating the Idea Fruition Process’, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 34(1): 27-39.

Grossman, Sanford J. and Joseph E. Stiglitz (1976). ‘Information and Competitive Price Systems’, American Economic Review 66(2): 246-253.

Grossman, Sanford J. (1976). ‘On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets where Traders Have Diverse Information’, The Journal of Finance 31(2): 573-585.

Grossman, Sanford J., ‘An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectations under Asymmetric Information’, Review of Economic Studies 48(4): 541-559.

Gruca, Thomas S., Joyce Berg and Michael Cipriano (2003). ‘The Effect of Electronic Markets on Forecasts of New Product Success’, Information Systems Frontiers 5(1): 95–105.

Gruca, Thomas S., Joyce E. Berg and Michael Cipriano (2005). ‘Consensus and Differences of Opinion in Electronic Prediction Markets’, Electronic Markets 15(1): 13-22.

Gruca, Thomas S., and Joyce E. Berg (2007). ‘Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy’, Journal of Prediction Markets 1(3): 219-231.

Guo, Zhiling, Fang Fang, Andrew B. Whinston. ‘Supply Chain Information Sharing in a Macro Prediction Market’, Decision Support Systems 42: 1944-1958.

Gürkaynak, Refet and Justin Wolfers (2005). Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk, Working Paper 2005-26, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Available from: <

Hahn, Robert and Paul Tetlock (2005a). ‘Making Development Work’, Policy Review (132): 27–38.

Hahn, Robert and Paul Tetlock (2005b). ‘Using Information Markets to Improve Decision Making’, Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy 29(1): 213-289.

Hahn, Robert and Paul Tetlock (2006). ‘Introduction to Information Markets’, in Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock (eds). Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, pp. 1-12.

Hanson, Robin (1999). ‘Decision Markets’, IEEE Intelligent Systems 14(3): 16-19.

Hanson, Robin (2000). ‘Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?’, mimeo, George Mason University.

Hanson, Robin (2003). ‘Combinatorial Information Market Design’, Information Systems Frontiers 5(1): 105-119.

Hanson, Robin (2006). ‘Designing Real Terrorism Futures’, Public Choice 128(1/2): 257-274.

Hanson, Robin (2006). ‘Foul Play in Information Markets’, in Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock (eds) Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions in the Public and Private Sectors, Washington D.C.: AEI-Brookings Joint Center, pp. 126-141.

Hanson, Robin (2007). ‘The Policy Analysis Market a Thwarted Experiment in the Use of Prediction Markets for Public Policy’, Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization 2(3): 73-88.

Hanson, Robin (2007). Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation. The Journal of Prediction Markets, 1, 3‐15.

Hanson, Robin and Ryan Oprea (2005). ‘Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy’, mimeo, George Mason University.

Hanson, Robin and Ryan Oprea (2009). ‘A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy’, Economica 76(302): 304-314.

Hanson, Robin, Ryan Oprea, and David Porter (2006). ‘Information Aggregation and Manipulation in an Experimental Market’, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 60(4): 449-459.

Hayek, Friedrich (1945). ‘The Use of Knowledge in Society’, American Economic Review 35(4): 519-530.

Hazelrigg, G. A. (1996). ‘The Implication of Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem on Approaches to Optimal Engineering Design’, Journal of Mechanical Design 118(2): 161–164.

Hender, J., T. Rodgers, D. Dean, and J. Nunamaker (2001). ‘Improving Group Creativity: Brainstorming versus Non-brainstorming Techniques in a GSS Environment’, in Proceedings of the 34th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, (HICSS-34)—Vol. 1.

Herron, Michael, Donald Cram, James Lavin and Jay Silver (1999). ‘Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy: A Study of the 1992 Presidential Election’, Economics and Politics 11(1): 51–81.

Ho, Teck-hua, and Kay-yut Chen (2007). ‘New Product Blockbusters: The Magic and Science of Prediction Markets,’ California management Review, 50 (1): 144-158.

Hopman, Jay W. (2007). ‘Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk’, Intel Technology Journal 11 (2): 127-135.

Jacobsen, Ben, Jan Potters, Arthur Schram, Frans van Winden, and Jörgen Wit (2000). ‘(In)accuracy of a European Political Stock Market The Influence of Common Value Structures’, European Economic Review 44(2): 205-230.

Jansen, Justin J. P., Frans A. J. Van Den Bosch, and Henk W. Volberda (2006). ‘Exploratory Innovation, Exploitative Innovation, and Performance: Effects of Organizational Antecedents and Environmental Moderators’, Management Science 52(11): 1661-1674.

Kambil, A. and E. Van Heck (2002). Making Markets, Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

Knight, Brian (2005). ‘Are Policy Platforms Capitalized into Equity Prices? Evidence from the Bush/Gore2000 Presidential Election’, Journal of Public Economics 90(4-5): 751–773.

Kou, S. G. and Michael E. Sobel (2004). ‘Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls’, Political Analysis 12(3): 277–295.

Kyle, Albert (1985). ‘Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading’, Econometrica 53(6): 1315-1336.

LaComb, Christina Ann, Janet Arlic Barnett and Qimei Pan (2007). ‘The Imagination Market’, Information Systems Frontier 9(2-3): 245-256.

Lavoie, Jim (2009). ‘The Innovation Engine at Rite-Solutions: Lessons from the CEO’, Journal of Prediction Markets 3(1): 1-11.

Ledyard, John O. (2006). ‘Designing Information Markets for Policy Analysis’, in Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock (eds). Information Markets: A New Way of Making Decisions, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, pp. 37-66.

Leigh, Andrew and Justin Wolfers (2006). ‘Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets’, Economic Record 82(258): 325-340.

Leigh, Andrew, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (2003). What Do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq, NBER Working Paper No. 9587, Available from: <

Linstone, Harold, and Murray Turoff (eds) (2002). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Available from <http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html>.

Luckner, Stefan (2007). Prediction Markets: How Do Incentive Schemes Affect Prediction Accuracy? Dagstuhl Seminar Proceedings 06461, Institute of Information Systems and Management, Universität Karlsruhe. Available from: <

Luckner, Stefan, Jan Schroder and Christian Slamka (2008). ‘On the Forecast Accuracy of Sports Prediction Markets’, in Henner Gimpel, Nicholas R. Jennings, Gregory E. Kersten, Axel Ockenfels, and Christof Weinhardt (eds), Negotiation, Auctions, and Market Engineering, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 227-234.

Luckner, Stefan, Christof Weinhardt and Rudi Studer. (2006). ‘Predictive Power of Markets: A Comparsion of Two Sports Forecasting Exchanges,’ in T. Dreier, R. Studer and C. Weinhardt (eds.), Information Management and Market Engineering. Karlsruhe: Karlsruhe University Press, pp.187-195.

Manski, Charles (2006). ‘Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets’, Economics Letters 91(3): 425-429.

Milgrom, Paul and Nancy Stokey (1982). ‘Information, Trade and Common Knowledge’, Journal of Economic Theory 26(1): 17-27.

Nelson, Forrest, George Neumann and Philip Polgreen (2006). ‘Operating with Doctors: Results from the 2004 and 2005 Influenza Markets’, mimeo, University of Iowa.

Nonaka, I. and Hirotaka Takeuchi (1995). The Knowledge-creating Company, USA: Oxford University Press.

Nunamaker Jr. Jay F., Briggs, Roberto O., Mittleman, Daniel D., Vogel, Douglas R., and Balthazard, Pierre A. (1996). ‘Lessons from a Dozen Years of Group Support Systems Research: A Discussion of Lab and Field Findings’, Journal of Management Information Systems 13(3): 163-207.

Oliven, Kenneth and Thomas A. Rietz (2004). ‘Suckers Are Born but Markets Are Made: Individual Rationality, Arbitrage, and Market Efficiency on an Electronic Futures Market’, Management Science 50(3): 336-351.

Ortner, Gerhard (1998). ‘Forecasting Markets—An Industrial Application’, mimeo, Technical University of Vienna.

Ottaviani, Marco (2009). ‘The Design of Idea Markets: An Economist’s Perspective’, Journal of Prediction Markets 3(1): 41-44.

Ottaviani, Marco and Peter Norman Sorensen (2007). Aggregation of Information and Beliefs in Prediction Markets, Working Paper, Available from: < http://faculty.london.edu/mottaviani/AIBIPM.pdf>

Ozer, Muammer (2005). ‘Factors Which Influence Decision Marking in New Product Evaluation’, European Journal of Operational Research 163(3): 784-801.

Pennock, D. M., Steve Lawrence, C. Lee Giles and Finn Ǻrup Nielsen (2001). ‘The Real Power of Artificial Markets’, Science 291(5506): 987-988.

Pennock, David, Steve Lawrence, Finn Ǻrup Nielsen and C. Lee Giles (2001). ‘Extracting Collective Probabilitistic Forecasts from Web Games’, in Proceedings of the Seventh ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, ACM, New York, pp.174-183.

Polgreen, Philip M., Forrest D. Nelson, and George R. Neumann, 2007, “Use of Prediction Markets to Forecast Infectious Disease Activity,” Clinical Infectious Diseases, 44 (2), 272-79.

Polgreen, Philip M., Forrest D. Nelson, and George R. Neumann, 2006, “Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Trend in Infectious Diseases,” Microbe Magazine, 10 (1), 459-465.

Plott, Charles R. (2000). ‘Markets as Information Gathering Tools’, Southern Economic Journal 67(1): 1-15.

Plott, Charles R., and Shyam Sunder (1982). ‘Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational Expectations Models’, Journal of Political Economy 90(4): 663-698.

Plott, Charles R., and Shyam Sunder (1988). ‘Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in a Laboratory Security Markets’, Econometrica 56(5): 1085-1118.

Rajakovich, David, and Vladimir Vladimirov (2009). ‘Prediction Markets as a Medic Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services’, Journal of Prediction Markets 3(2): 78-106.

Rhode, Paul W. and Koleman S. Strumpf (2004). ‘Historical Presidential Betting Markets’, Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2): 127-142.

Rhode, Paul W. and Koleman S. Strumpf (2005). ‘Manipulation in Political Stock Markets’, mimeo, University of North Carolina.

Rhode, Paul W. and Koleman S. Strumpf. (2008). Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data, accessed May 28, 2011, available at: http://www.unc.edu/~cigar/papers/ManipNBER.pdf

Roberts, Brian (1990). ‘Political Institutions, Policy Expectations, and the 1980 Election: A Financial Market Perspective’, American Journal of Political Science 34(2): 289-310.

Rosenbloom, E. S. and William Notz (2006). ‘Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus Play Money Prediction Markets Electronic Markets’, Electronic Markets 16(1): 63-69.

Rowe, Gene, and George Wright (1999). ‘The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis’, International Journal of Forecasting 15(4): 353-375.

Servan-Schreiber, Emile, Justin Wolfers, David Pennock and Brian Galebach (2004). ‘Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?’, Electronic Markets 14(3): 243-251.

Skiera, Bernd and Martin Spann (2004). ‘Opportunities of Virtual Stock Markets to Support New Product Development’, in Sönke Albers (ed) Cross-functional Innovation Management: Perspectives from Different Disciplines, Wiesbaden, Germany: Gabler, pp. 228-242.

Slemrod, Joel, and Timothy Greimel (1999). ‘Did Steve Forbes scare the municipal bond market?’, Journal of Public Economics 74(1): 81-96.

Smith, Richard and Janet Kiholm Smith (2003). Entrepreneurial Finance, New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Smith, VL (1982). ‘Microeconomic Systems as an Experimental Science’, American Economic Review 72: 923–955.

Smith, V. L., G. L. Suchanek, and A. W. Williams (1988). ‘Bubbles, Crashes and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets’, Econometrica 56(5): 1119-1151.

Snowberg, Erik and Justin Wolfers (2005). ‘Explaining the Favorite-Longshot Bias: Is it Risk-Love, or Misperceptions?’, mimeo, University of Pennsylvania.

Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (2005). ‘Information (In)Efficiency in Prediction Markets’, in Leighton Vaughn Williams (ed) Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 366-386.

Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz (2006). ‘Partisan Impacts on the Stock Market: Evidence from Prediction Markets and the 2004 Election’, mimeo, University of Pennsylvania.

Soukhoroukova, Arina and Martin Spann (2005). ‘New Product Development with Internet-based Information Markets: Theory and Empirical Application’, in 13th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), Regensburg.

Soukhoroukova, Arina, Martin Spann and Bernd Skiera (2007). Creating and Evaluating New Product Ideas with Idea Markets, Working Paper, University of Passau. Available from: <

Spann, Martin, and Bernd Skiera. (2003). ‘Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting’, Management Science 49:1310–1326.

Spann, Martin, and Bernd Skiera. (2009). ‘Sports Forecasting: A Comparison of the Forecast Accuracy of Prediction Markets, Betting Odds and Tipsters’, Journal of Forecasting 28:55-72.

Spears, Brian, Christina LaComb, John Interrante, Janet Barnett, and Deniz Senturk-Dogonaksoy (2009). ‘Examining Trader Behavior in Idea Markets: An Implementation of GE’s Imagination Markets’, Journal of Prediction Markets 3(1): 17-39.

Sprenger, Timm, Paul Bolster, and Anand Venkateswaran (2007). ‘Conditional Prediction Markets as Corporate Decision Support Systems –An Experimental Comparison with Group Deliberations’, Journal of Prediction Markets 1(3): 189-208.

Strumpf, Koleman (2009). ‘Introduction to Special Issue on Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets’, Journal of Prediction Markets 3(1): i-viii.