UNC Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC)
Project Lead: Jim Fox
Co-Participants: Karin Rogers, Matt Hutchins, Derek Morgan
Address:
Jim Fox
Robinson 246, CPO#2345
UNC Asheville
One University Heights
Asheville, North Carolina 28804
Project Title: Decision support and facilitation of the Targeted Resource Implementation Plan (TRIP) in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary
Focal Issue: Integrative projects that meet all aspects of the SALCC strategic intent
Project Duration: January, 2012- November, 2012
Project Abstract
This request is in support of the Southeast Natural Resource Leaders Group (SENRLG) Landscape Conservation and Restoration Pilot Project. Phase I of the study was completed with support from UNC Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) in June 2011 after working closely with the SENRLG Pilot Project Team. The first phase identified federal resources available for supporting ecological, cultural, and sociological resource protection across the Southeast within an adaptive framework for building resilience into the system to address risk from climate change impacts on the landscape. To further define the co-benefits of leveraging resources in a synergistic manner on the landscape, the second phase of the work will focus on a defined geographic location within the South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative identified as the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary. The focus of the project is to develop a Targeted Resource Implementation Plan that not only identifies workable adaptation solutions based on federal funding availability, but will also develop a replicable process that can be used to support partnerships across vulnerable areas in the southeast.
The second phase of this study will consist of a series of meetings and workshops utilizing the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT), a decision support process developed by the USDA Forest Service Eastern Forest Threat Center and implemented by NEMAC. The primary deliverable will be the Targeted Resource Implementation Plan in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary.
NEMAC support of the CRAFT process to this point has been pro bono. However, their facilitation and GIS data base support has been extremely valuable in moving this effort forward. NEMAC is also familiar with SENRLG agencies and has been an integral part of the Phase I work. NEMAC’s expertise and trusted facilitator status give them a strong foundation for moving quickly into Phase II and conducting the workshops.
The existing data and information collected during Phase I is currently available for the 8 states in the southeast. The Geographical Information System (GIS) decision support tool provides a transparent approach to targeting resources and providing interested partners with a visual perspective of included stressors and funding resources on the landscape. The information could easily be adapted to address other natural resource stressors across the region as well. NEMAC will coordinate with other partnerships conducting on-the-ground efforts in the region to ensure a solid foundation for implementation of the TRIP in Fiscal Year 2013.
NEMAC has agreed to match any assistance provided with in-kind resources to continue supporting the SENRLG project for the year. The financial backing will be used to:
· Facilitate and conduct the meetings and workshop for the TRIP.
· Provide reporting documents and support the final report.
· Support the Director facilitation and three NEMAC staff position work.
· Participate in SALCC Optimal Conservation Strategy meetings as needed for coordination.
· Provide logistics for web conferencing, meetings and the workshops.
· Manage the project web portal and spatial data management.
Project Description
The project objectives for this proposal address the following:
· Facilitate decision workshops focusing on:
o Prioritizing landscapes in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary for protection based on
§ the Optimal Conservation Strategy priorities
§ the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) and related climate change impacts,
§ and current investments by the landscape conservation community
o Determining how to leverage Federal resources to support implementation that
§ builds resilience in natural systems
§ provides synergistic opportunities for leveraging existing federal resources
§ links the interrelationship of systems through a Bayesian Belief Network also known as structured decision making
o Establishing performance measures that are
§ Reflective of existing program accountability
§ Focused on defined essential attributes of agency programs
§ Responsive to stakeholder and agency mission priorities
· Fully utilize the work developed during Phase I and build upon the work of the SALCC
· Support and maintain web portal for use by team members
· Manage spatial data needs of team and integrate these spatial data into a dynamic decision process that utilizes Bayesian statistics
· Develop and maintain specific outreach web sites
· Create the Targeted Resource Implementation Plan (TRIP) for the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary
Narrative
This Phase II work will build off the earlier SENRLG workshop held in April 2011. Key products that were generated during that workshop included delineation of main areas in the southeast that were going to be impacted by climate change and the construction of decision support tools that included GIS viewers, objectives hierarchies, conceptual models and other products. The workshop concluded with the selection of the main area to focus Phase II work on. The area selected was the Albemarle-Pamlico coastal region.
Phase II will start with the construction of a problem statement, creating the objective hierarchies and conceptual models, and working with the SALCC science team to insure the data sets and value drivers are consistent with their Optimal Conservation Strategy.
The work team will discuss and update this proposed problem statement which is the strategic intent of the SENRLG leadership group: “Prioritize what landscapes to protect in the AP area based on the potential impact of Sea Level Rise (and related Climate Change Impacts). Determine how to leverage Federal dollars and resources to support implementation that will build resilience into the system.”
Resilience is a key concept here. The work group will define what makes a landscape resilient. Resilience is defined (by the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force) as a capability to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from significant multihazard threats with minimum damage to social well-being, the economy, and the environment. For the AP region, we know that Sea Level Rise will lower resilience, through inundation and other impacts. But the big question is how can we use federal dollars to either lessen this impact or increase resilience in the AP region? Known factors at risk (categorized by North Carolina Interagency Leadership Team under the direction of NEMAC) include people, property, local economies and ecosystems.
Goals and objectives will be linked to these factors at risk. Phase I identified many of these factors and they include lands in proximity to existing federal lands, working forest lands, emergency evacuation routes linked to transportation mobility, encroachment around Department of Defense sites, critical habitat for biodiversity and clean drinking water (to just mention a few).
The NEMAC approach to the workshops for Phase II will be:
· Stage 1: Review work done in Phase I and bring any new team members up to speed with the CRAFT process. Review and update the problem statement, linked goals and objectives, create updated objective hierarchies and populate the portal. This stage will also include integration of the SALCC science team input and background data.
· Stage 2: Build conceptual models - The SENRLG/SALCC group put together a beginning set of conceptual models at the end of the Phase 1 workshop. We will use these conceptual models as a starting point. These “sector based” models will be used to construct the initial planning maps that the workshop participants will review. In addition, NEMAC will also use the Sea Level Rise Conceptual Model that our group constructed working with the NC ILT group for the NC Climate Adaptation Plan.
· Stage 3: Determine priority landscapes or “areas” by overlaying the SALCC “optimal conservation strategy” map over the initial planning maps linked to the main value drivers. This scoping exercise will start to highlight key areas in competition that will need to be included in the conceptual models.
· Stage 4: Use Bayesian belief networks to determine which “areas” are worth investing more funding/programs
· Stage 5: Create the Targeted Resource Implementation Plan (TRIP) in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuary. This implementation will clearly communicate the findings of the workshops and analysis and remove any feeling of a “black box” modeling approach.
This is a very basic description of the process and is not intended to indicate that this is the full level of work, but the strategic intent of this proposal.
Relationship to LCC niche
The South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (SALCC) is a partnership that focuses on resource management decisions across landscapes at a broad scale. This project embodies all of the characteristics of the SALCC, including cooperative decision making, application of science to solving climate change adaptation issues, working across broad partnerships to insure implementation, and finding ways to leverage limited resources to gain maximum impact.
Phase I of the study examined to total area covered by the SALCC and developed a data and decision framework across the broad landscape. Phase II will take this regional backbone and develop techniques to allow for local implementation. NEMAC will actively work with the SALCC to build upon the shared learning of the SALCC and not replicate any of the work already performed. It will utilize the SALCC and SENRLG partnerships to achieve the final goals of this study.
Project Timeline
The following is a projected timeline for this project period. The cooperation and coordination between the SALCC, TRIP team members and NEMAC is essential for the completion of this schedule.
2012Products / J / F / M / A / M / J / J / A / S / O / N
Virtual meeting: Kick-off meeting
Finalize data collection
Launch website
Workshop # 1: data prioritization
Workshop # 2: Complete conceptual models
Workshop # 2: Complete Bayesian models
Select areas for prioritization
Complete outreach strategy
Budget
Key Personnel / FTE / Total S + B / Salary / Benefits / Subtotal / Cost Share
Jim Fox (PI) / 0.064 / $ 8,147 / $ 5,906 / $ 2,240 / $ 8,147 / $ 5,377
Derek Morgan / 0.055 / $ 4,973 / $ 3,605 / $ 1,367 / $ 4,973
Karin Rogers / 0.068 / $ 5,731 / $ 4,155 / $ 1,576 / $ 5,731 / $ 3,782
Matt Hutchins / 0.068 / $ 3,139 / $ 2,276 / $ 863 / $ 3,139 / $ 2,617
Greg Dobson / 0.068 / $ 5,731
Subtotal / $ 21,990 / $ 15,942 / $ 6,047 / $ 21,990
Total Salary and Benefits / $ 21,990
Travel and Services / Travel to Atlanta, GA (3 staff, 2 visits)
Transportation / $ 1,250
Lodging / $ 3,400
Per diem / $ 1,200
Travel Total / $ 5,850
Other Direct Costs
Materials and Supplies / $ 566
$ 5,000
Total Direct Costs / $ 28,406
Indirect Costs / F&A 10% Key Personnel Salaries / $ 1,594
F&A 47% Key Personnel Salaries (remainder of UNCA rate) / $ 7,493
Project Total / $ 30,000
Cost Share Total / $ 30,000
Budget Justification
The budget categories discussed below represent those included with the accompanying Budget. This information specifically includes funding requirements for January-November, 2012:
Personnel
NEMAC personnel salaries committed to this program ($15,942) include:
1. Jim Fox (Director) at 0.064 FTE= $5,906
2. Derek Morgan (Applied Research Software Designer) at 0.055 FTE = $3,605
3. Karin Rogers (Project Manager/Research Scientist) at 0.068 FTE=$4,155
4. Matt Hutchins (Research Associate) at 0.068 FTE= $2,276
Fringe Benefits
Fringe benefits are calculated as 27.5% of salaries and wages for all personnel ($6,047).
Travel and Services
Travel funds for key personnel are requested in the amount of $5,850 for this project period. This includes two visits to Atlanta for 3 NEMAC personnel.
Equipment
No equipment charges are expected for this effort.
Supplies
The estimate for generic supplies, software, and additional equipment is $566. Additional equipment valued at less than $5,000 is listed in this category, and includes software licenses, external hard drives, using the UNCA NEMAC color printer and color plotter and charging for supplies and depreciation.
Indirect Charges
Indirect charges are 57% of salaries and wages as set by UNCA’s cognizant federal agency—the Department of Health and Human Services. Per the requirements of this RFP, the SALCC “only allows limited indirect costs in certain cases. Indirect costs are subject to the following limitations: up to 10% for U.S universities.” The total indirect costs charged for this project period total $1,594.
Cost share
Matching funds totaling $30,000 will be provided by UNC Asheville. The sources of these funds include:
1. Salary plus benefits for Jim Fox (NEMAC Director) at 0.042 FTE, Karin Rogers (NEMAC Research Scientist) at 0.045 FTE, Matt Hutchins (NEMAC Decision Support Research Associate) at 0.057 FTE, and Greg Dobson (NEMAC GIS Coordinator) at 0.068 FTE, totaling $17,507.
2. Capitalized expenses from hosting servers, potential network and router charges from ERC Broadband ($5,000);
3. A portion of indirect costs as applied to salaries and wages ($7,493). This is equivalent to the remaining F&A rate (57%) as sent by UNCA’s cognizant federal agency, the Department of Health and Human Services.
Appendix 1: Curriculum vitae for project lead and co-participants
JAMES FOX Email: Phone: 828-301-2075
Professional Preparation
University of Missouri-Rolla Geology/Geophysics Bachelor Science 1979
American Intercontinental University IT/Informal Education Masters of Science 2004
Appointments and Work Experience
Director – UNC Asheville’s NEMAC (National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center), UNC Asheville, 2005 to present. NEMAC is an applied research group that integrates vast amounts of data and converts to information that supports complex decision making.
Technical Chair – North Carolina’s Mountain Resource Commission, 2010 to present. Lead a team of technical experts in support of the State Commission that oversees policy and decision making for the 27 mountain counties of western North Carolina.
Owner and Consultant – I.T. Solutions, Asheville, NC, 2002 to 2007. Project manager for and designer of museum exhibits.