Department of Development and International Relations
Sino-Japanese Crises from 2012 Bring Opportunities for China’s New Diplomacy
Master Thesis
Supervisors: Jian Tao, Peer Møller Christensen
Submitted by: Rong Chen
Submitted on: 20th May 2014
Table of Contents
Abstract I
1. Abbreviations 1
2. Introduction 2
3. Methodology 5
3.1. Motivation and Main Focus 5
3.2. Research Method & Research Approach 6
3.3. Empirical Data 7
3.4. Structure 7
3.5. Choice of the Theory 8
3.6. Key Concept 9
3.7. Limitations 11
3.8. Project Design 12
4. Theory 13
4.1. Crisis Management 13
5. Analysis 21
5.1. Signals of Intense Sino-Japanese Relation from 2012 21
5.2. China’s New Diplomatic Performance during the Crises 26
5.3. Lesson-Learned from Dealing with the Sino-Japanese Crises 37
6. Conclusion 43
7. Bibliography 46
Abstract
The Sino-Japanese relation has been in a historically low point since 2012. A territorial row over the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands has been flared up after right-wing Tokyo Governor Shintaro’s purchase of this group of islands. Besides this, different attitudes towards Japan’s historical wartime doing was an ingrained thorn in Sino-Japanese relation. With hawkish Abe taking into power, he has taken a tougher position over the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands and paid tribute to the Yasukuni shrine regardless of the strong condemnation of China and other Asian countries. On the other hand, US’ high-key strategy of ‘Returning to Asia’ and its long-standing security commitment with Japan make the intense Sino-Japanese ties even more complicated. Against this backdrop, Chinese new administration led by Xi Jinping realizes that there is urgency for them to handle this crisis and convert it into opportunities to explore China’s full-pledged diplomatic horizon.
Out of this consideration, crisis management mode initiated by Ian I. Mitroff is chosen as the theory for the thesis. Generally there exist five stages in the mode which are signal detection, prevention & preparedness, damage containment, recovery and learning. In the case of Sino-Japanese crisis, three of them are picked up in the analysis part as the rest of two are skipped in reality. Guided by the revised crisis management mode, the author starts from selecting typical incidents which imply the deterioration of the Sino-Japanese relations. On the basis of it, the analysis of China’s new diplomatic performance in managing the crisis is presented. After that a rethinking or evaluation on China’s diplomatic performance during the crisis is added. In this sequence, the author tries to show the intention of writing this thesis that although the recent Sino-Japanese crisis from 2012 exerted more pressure on China’s foreign policy-making, it made Chinese new leadership broaden their diplomatic horizon and turn the risk into precious opportunities to promote the development of China’s new diplomacy in a full-pledged manner. By studying the Sino-Japanese crisis, China’s new diplomacy in Xi’s administration featured as more confident and active is fully presented.
Key Words: the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations; crisis management mode, China’s new diplomacy
I
1. Abbreviations
Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands in Japanese)
ICT – Information and Communications Technology
PPRR – Prevention, Preparedness, Response and Recovery
LDP – Liberal Democratic Party
ADIZ – Air Defense Identification Zone
MTDP – Mid Term Defense Plan
MSDF – Maritime Self Defense Force
ASDF – Air Self Defense Force
GSDF – Ground Self Defense Force
APEC – Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations
2. Introduction
Intense diplomatic relations between China and Japan have been received much attention from the rest of the world nowadays. “Although China and Japan have been deepening economic interdependence over the last two decades, their relationship has been one of the tensest among the most important bilateral relationships in the world, and the most recent territorial dispute on Diaoyu Islands between them has made it even worse.”[1] The lasting economic downturn caused by global economic crisis in 2008 and frequent political change of the ruling parties make Japan much worried about its decline of power in Asia. On the contrary, China by virtue of its remarkable economic performance and relative stable political transfer is expected to replace Japan’s superiority in this region. “Now hardly a day goes by without a new flare-up in the war of diplomatic attrition being fought out by China and Japan.”[2] It is argued that the deterioration of the bilateral relations between these two countries will be the keynote in the political realm of East Asia.
Shinzo Abe, Japan’s present prime minister, compared to his first term, turns to maintain a tough stance on China. Abe, on his visit to Okinawa’s Ishigaki Island on 17 July 2013, firmly claimed that “his government would never make concessions to China on the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu Islands in Japanese), and The Senkakus are an inherent part of Japan’s territory in terms of history and international law and there is no territorial dispute between the two countries.”[3] On the other hand, China’s newly-elected president Xi Jinping also tries to adjust former moderate policy towards Japan during Hu-Wen administration which highlighted economic cooperation and interdependence between the two countries. With the ascendant of China’s comprehensive strength and active integration into the international community, Chinese new leadership shows its willingness to become more confident and active in its foreign-policy making as President Xi once said: “No foreign country should ever nurse hopes that we will swallow the bitter fruit of harm to our country’s sovereignty, security and development interests, published on Xinhua news agency – the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.”[4] Therefore, the escalation of territorial dispute over Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea is not likely to come to an end in the short run. Apart from the ownership over Diaoyu Islands, Japanese government’s ambiguous attitude to its historical experience of invasion in China during the WWII worsens the bilateral relationship. There is no doubt that Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine in 2013 as well as many right-wing Japanese officials’ remarks on the denial of Nanjing massacre to a large extent irritates Chinese ruling elites as well as ordinary Chinese citizens. It is commonly agreed that present Sino-Japanese relation since 2012 is in the most intense and frosty phase after their official establishment of diplomatic relation.
The complexity of Sino-Japanese relation is closely related to the significant involvement of the United States who intends to manipulate Japan to contain China’s potential regional dominance in Asia. At the same time, backed up by the US’ security commitment, Abe’s administration takes the initiative to exacerbate the anxiety about ‘China threat’ and counterbalance the rising China. The United States’ high-key ‘Returning to Asia’ strategy and the stable US-Japan alliance leave less room for China to create a favorable external environment to explore its diplomatic relations. Because of this, Chinese new leadership come to realize the previous low-profile foreign policy should be adjusted to be more proactive which requires China’s voices should be expressed and heard more in the international community. The strained bilateral relations between China and Japan on the one hand, exert much pressure on China’s diplomacy in East Asia, on the other hand, stimulate President Xi’s administration to make some transformation of China’s diplomacy not only to Japan, but also to major powers such as the US and Russia as well as neighboring countries. Hence, it is necessary for me to make a comprehensive analysis on the causes and process of the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relation from 2012 so as to form a better understanding of this crisis to China’s diplomacy. Against this backdrop, China’s diplomacy is expected to make some transformation to deal with these crises. Therefore, the problem of my research will be focused on:
Why the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations from 2012 bring opportunities for China’s new diplomacy from the perspective of crisis management?
3. Methodology
3.1. Motivation and Main Focus
The author’s motivation to write this thesis is mainly out of the attention to recent intense Sino-Japanese relations. China’s speedy economic growth makes Japan fear its relative decline of power in Asia. With the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coming into power, the new Japanese cabinet pursues a hard-line foreign policy to divert public complaint on the domestic stagnant economy. As for China, thanks to its concentrated efforts on the domestic modernization in past 30 years, its economic competitiveness as well as national pride is rapidly elevated. “Chinese new leaders become increasingly confident in its ability to deal with territorial disputes on its own terms. They also become more willing to proactively shape the external environment rather than passively react to it and forcefully safeguard China’s national interests rather than compromise them”.[5] In terms of Diaoyu Islands dispute, Chinese central government condemns Japan’s unilateral deed to these Islands and takes persistent efforts to claim its ‘undisputed’ sovereignty over Diaoyu Islands. Apart from the territorial disputes, Japan’s reluctance to repent for its historical wartime wrongs is another major factor which intensified bilateral relations. Given the complexity of Sino-Japanese relations, President Xi’s administration turns to a more active foreign strategy which is different from the low-profile policy adopted by the last four generations of leadership, to deal with the deteriorated Sino-Japanese diplomatic crisis. Hence, the author’s curiosity is greatly aroused to correlate the research of China’s new diplomacy with its performance in conducting sensitive Sino-Japanese crises from 2012.
The main focus of this thesis is to make an in-depth analysis of China’s new diplomatic performance in dealing with intractable Sino-Japanese relations from 2012. Due to the limited scope of the thesis and different periods of Sino-Japanese relations, recent intensity between two countries in regard to Diaoyu Islands and the historical issues in Abe’s second term is chosen to be analyzed. Crisis management system mode is employed as it presents China’s diplomatic capacity in identifying, responding and learning from the Sino-Japanese crisis. On the basis of it, China’s new diplomacy which is characterized as more confident and active is clarified. The escalation of territorial dispute on Diaoyu Islands and the long-standing divergence on Japan’s historical aggression in China will be exemplified to clarify the progress of China’s diplomacy in Xi’s administration. The author plans to interpret China new leadership’s plan in making a difference in China’s diplomacy in the face of Sino-Japanese relation.
3.2. Research Method & Research Approach
This thesis is largely based on a qualitative study as it aims to present a solid understanding of China’s new diplomatic performance under Chinese new leadership in the case of the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations. The application of crisis management system mode to this topic requires associating the features of each stage with concrete foreign affairs in Sino-Japanese relations. In addition to this, high-ranking officials’ statements as well as information released at News Briefing of the governments will be the important source for the analysis. Hence, these components are not likely to be directly reflected in the form of data. On the contrary, qualitative method is much preferred in terms of its advantage in interpretation of the elements. “Most obviously, qualitative research tends to be concerned with words rather than numbers. Besides this, one of its distinguishing features is that qualitative techniques from an epistemological position described as interpretivist, meaning that the stress is on the understanding of the social world through an examination of the interpretation of that world by its participants”.[6] Therefore, qualitative method will be practiced throughout the thesis. A comprehensive approach should be taken in the analysis of China’s new diplomatic performance in dealing with the bilateral crises which includes the relation with Japan, the major powers (US & Russia), the neighboring countries and the Europe. The consideration of all these aspects will be conducive to forming an insight into China’s new diplomacy.
3.3. Empirical Data
The literature for reference of this thesis is largely based on the secondary material. Since the qualitative method is wielded in the thesis, the texts used in the thesis will be in “a cognitive manner to play the basic role of introduction” and “lays the foundation for further interpretation and analysis”[7] as well. Therefore, the major supported materials the author chooses are from published books and high-academic journals. In terms of the internet sources, government official websites and prominent news agencies like The Economist are also taken into consideration for the high credibility. What’s more, the internet sources from the two mentioned channels also reveal the latest situation which may be ignored or not assumed by the scholars and published volumes.
China’s new diplomatic performance in handling the intense Sino-Japanese crises is the focus of this thesis, hence, the general introduction of China’s foreign policy before President Xi’s era in the following part will help the author to conclude the China’s progress in diplomatic strategy. Furthermore, several typical catchphrases proposed by Xi Jinping will be used as the evidence standing for the new perspective of China’s diplomacy in Xi’s administration.
3.4. Structure
The project is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction. The second part is the methodology. The third part is the theory, which provides the theoretical support to the following analysis. The fourth part is the analysis, which combines the crisis management mode with the interpretation of China’s new diplomatic performance in Sino-Japanese relation. The final part goes to the conclusion, which aims to present an answer for the problem formulation.
3.5. Choice of the Theory
Crisis Management Mode
Frictions between China and Japan have become one of the most frequent issues raised in China’s press conference held by Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 2012. The incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Abe took a series of steps to declare Japan’s sovereignty over Diaoyu Islands, which aroused China’s strong condemnation. On the other hand, Abe as well as other high-ranking Japanese officials’ visits to Yasukuni Shrine offend China’s sensitivity over the humiliating and miserable past caused by Japan’s militarism. This triggers a wave of outrage and protest in China’s society. China’s new leadership is expected to take a tough position towards Japan under the pressure of the rising public nationalism. However, Abe’s visit to Yasukuni Shrine is approved by over half of the public according to the opinion poll made by Jiji News Agency on January 11th, 2014. It is predicted that Abe’s administration will continue its uncompromising posture towards China in view of domestic support rate. Although both sides try not to take the initiative to start a war, the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relation is not likely to change in the short run. Hence, the tension between China and Japan is a crisis which should be handled with crafted tactics. With the ascent of China’s comprehensive strength, China’s new leadership realizes the great necessity to adjust former low-profile diplomatic keynote to a more initiative and progressive stance. Sino-Japanese relations play a significant role in China’s overall diplomatic strategy. In view of the complexity of this bilateral relation, multiple and comprehensive diplomatic efforts are needed. Against this backdrop, a clue for China’s new diplomacy could be traced. The application of crisis management mode will help the author have a better understanding of China’s new diplomatic efforts in the face of Sino-Japanese crises. According to the mode, not only China’s performance during the crises, but also China’s action before and after the crises will be altogether taken into account. Through this process, a full picture of China’s new diplomacy in Xi’s era will be presented. Hence, the employment of crisis management model could interpret China’s attempts in dealing with the tensions between China and Japan, at the same time reveals the tendency of China’s new diplomacy under China’s new leadership. This is the main reason why the author chooses crisis management mode as the theory.