IMPACT EVALUATION CONCEPT NOTE
DESIGN DOCUMENT
APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING PROGRAM AND ENTREPRENEURIAL
SUPPORT FOR VULNERABLE YOUTH IN MALAWI
Prepared by:
Yoonyoung Cho
Rachel Hoy
Victor Orozco
Sangeeta Raja
The World Bank
November 12, 2009
Project Name / Apprenticeship Training Program and Entrepreneurial Support for Vulnerable Youth in MalawiCountry / Malawi
Task Team Leader / Sangeeta Raja
Impact Evaluation Team
The impact evaluation design has been a joint effort between the World Bank and the Malawian National AIDS Commission’s (NAC) Monitoring, Evaluation and Research unit. Active members of the evaluation team include:
Name / Responsibility / Institution / E-mailDr. Davie Kalomba / NAC /
Mushfiq Mobarak / Principal
Investigator / Yale University /
Field
Coordinator / TBD
Victor Orozco / Program Coordinator / World Bank /
Yoonyoung Cho / Evaluation / World Bank /
Rachel Hoy / Program Assistant / World Bank /
Sangeeta Raja / TTL / World Bank /
Juliana Victor-Ahuchogu / Team Member / World Bank /
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS 4
INTRODUCTION 5
A. Background of Malawi 5
B. Rationale for Intervention 6
C. Description of Intervention 8
RESEARCH QUESTIONS 9
IMPACT EVALUATION METHODOLOGY 11
D. Counterfactual Analysis 11
E. Randomized Evaluation Design 12
F. Power Calculations 14
G. Sample Selection 15
DATA SOURCES 15
Risks of the Evaluation 16
BASELINE SURVEY 17
IMPACT EVALUATION WORKPLAN 17
H. Evaluation staff 17
I. Ethics in HIV Impact Evaluation 18
TIMELINE AND BUDGET 19
J. Timeline: 19
K. Budget 20
REFERENCES 21
ACRONYMS
AIDS / Acquired immune deficiency syndromeATE / Average treatment effect
GFATM / Global Fund to AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
HIV / Human immunodeficiency virus
ITT / Intention-to-treat
LA / Local authority
NAC / National AIDS Commission
NGO / Non-governmental organization
OVYP / Orphans and vulnerable young persons
TA / Traditional authority
INTRODUCTION
This document proposes an evaluation design for assessing the impact of the Malawi youth apprenticeship program, including a statistical identification strategy, operational procedures for sample selection and data collection, and recommendations on staffing, budget and timeframe.
The objective of this intervention is to provide vulnerable youth in Malawi, including orphans and out-of-school female youth an opportunity to enhance their employability and earning potential, thus reducing high risk behavior that increases vulnerability to HIV infection. This intervention is motivated by the situation faced by Malawian youth, notably for young women: low skill levels measured by educational outcomes coupled with high rates of unemployment, extreme poverty, high risk sexual behavior (early average age at first intercourse, inter-generational sex, transactional sex, and multiple concurrent partnerships), and high HIV prevalence. By providing youth with training and microcredit opportunities (in the form of business start-up kits), they can improve their employability and earning potential. Newly skilled Malawian youth will be able to increase their income, thus reducing high risk behavior and their exposure to HIV/AIDS, especially among young women.
The objective of the impact evaluation is to estimate the causal impact of participating in vocational training and access to microcredit/start-up kit on youth’s employability and earning potential as well as the effect of the intervention on their healthcare seeking and high risk sexual behavior. Given that some characteristics that affect participation in the vocational training programs can also influence the outcomes of interest, in order to measure the net impacts of the training and micro-credit, we will use a randomized experimental approach.
A. Background of Malawi
Like many sub-Saharan countries, the youth population in Malawi is large: sixty percent out of Malawi’s 11 million people are under age 30. About one million children are enrolled in free primary education, out of which only 300,000 successfully complete primary education, with very few of them being young girls. Only one-third of youth completing primary education access secondary education and less than one percent of secondary school graduates are able to enroll in post-secondary institutions. In total, almost 500,000 young people abandon primary or secondary education and attempt to enter the workforce annually (Malawi NAC, 2007).
Formal employment opportunities are scarce in Malawi. Many youth, especially those with low education levels, struggle to earn a living in the non-formal work sector. Work opportunities for unskilled out-of-school youth include petty trading, food production, agriculture, domestic and manual labor. Some young people may migrate within Malawi or to bordering countries to work in mining or other industry. Even those who completed post-secondary studies also face high levels of unemployment due to limited formal sector positions. Malawi’s limited and unstable labor market results in unequal income distribution, which is a driver of the AIDS epidemic (Durevall & Linkskog, 2007).
From the supply side, lack of skills is one of the key impediments to Malawi’s economic growth. Young women face additional challenges in Malawi’s job market due to generally lower education levels and gender dynamics resulting in fewer job opportunities. According to Ӧzler (2008), over 60% of that girls do not attend school in Malawi cited lack of financial resources (41%) and pregnancy (22%). Consequently, female unemployment is higher (14.4%) than male joblessness (10.6%). The lack of stable employment marginalizes workers, especially women, thus increasing their susceptibility to HIV infection (Vass, 2002). In order to make ends meet, socio-economically disadvantaged women are more likely to engage in transactional sex than those with stable income. Females with limited education are less likely to have a comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS; gender inequalities may also prevent women from successfully negotiating with their partner(s) to practice safe sex. Both factors increase young women’s vulnerability and compound their risk of contracting HIV.
Malawi is among the countries in Southern Africa at the epicenter of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. With an estimated 14.0% adult (15-49 years) prevalence, about 940,000 Malawians live with HIV or AIDS. The AIDS epidemic places a significant strain on young people’s livelihoods, with the greatest impact felt by females and those living in poverty. Women are disproportionately affected, with 57% of all infections (UNAIDS, 2007). (i.e., 13.3 percent of women infected compared to 10.2 percent of men nationwide). Young adolescent girls 15-19 years of age are more than four times more likely to be infected than their male counterparts because they became sexually active earlier than male counterpart (UNAIDS, 2007). This can be attributed to the fact that adolescent females engage in intercourse at an earlier age than males of the same age. Almost half of all adolescent females aged 15 to 19 are already mothers, indicating that they are practicing unprotected sex. Young women aged 15-24 years in urban areas were more likely to be HIV-infected than their rural counterparts i.e. HIV prevalence of 13.3 percent compared to 8.2 percent.
Despite public efforts to meet the additional needs of HIV-positive individuals, Malawians are greatly affected by HIV/AIDS. With high levels of AIDS-related illnesses and almost 90,000 AIDS-attributable deaths annually, families and communities struggle to meet their financial and healthcare needs as young productive Malawians are debilitated by AIDS and the adult workforce is compromised. The latest research indicates that this increased dependency ratio caused by the HIV/AIDS epidemic does impact economic growth (Durevall & Linkskog, 2007).
B. Rationale for Intervention
The apprenticeship training program aims to empower Malawian youth, especially orphans and vulnerable young persons (OVYP) who may be at greater risk of falling into risky behaviors to meet the basic economic needs. The program, financed by the Global Fund will transfer new marketable skills and providing follow-up support to young entrepreneurs. In light of the disproportionate number of young women with fewer skills, higher unemployment and higher HIV prevalence, the intervention will have a particular focus on female youth.
Apprenticeship Training
As mentioned above, Malawi’s youth unemployment rate is high mainly due to insufficient employment opportunities and inadequate skills. Thus, the intervention focuses on building capacity to fill the gap caused by low levels of formal education.
Interventions targeted to increase employability and skills are being tested in many forms. These include: schooling in developing countries in the form of subsidies (Angrist et al., 2006; Bettinger et al., 2007), conditional cash transfers (Glewwe and Olinto, 2004; Todd and Wolpin, 2006; Kremer and Vermeersh, 2005), and teachers incentives (Banerjee et al., 2007). An increasing number of training programs (active labor market policies) for disadvantaged workers are also introduced in developing countries to address skill development (Card et al. 2007; Attanasio et al. 2009).
Microcredit Opportunities and Start-up Kits
Research shows that microcredit provides the poor with new opportunities to start business, which helps poverty reduction of the individual and the local economy as well (Khandker, 1998, 2005). It is also known that in developing countries women are more credit constrained and have more limited opportunities (De Mel et al. 2008; Khandker, 1998). In particular, the impact of microcredit may be different by gender, and the impact for women is found to be larger (Pitt and Khandker, 1998). Thus, providing microcredit to the vulnerable women can have a large impact especially when it is provided conditional upon the completion of vocational training. However, increasing access to credit is not enough. Previous experience has shown that when entrepreneurship skills training and start up kits are not provided to the trainees upon completion of their vocational skills training courses, the majority of them fail to mobilize the start-up capital to start and maintain their small business.
Labor Market Apprenticeship and HIV/AIDS
There is significant literature on the relationship between poverty, especially women’s poverty, and HIV/AIDS risk (UNDP, 1992; Farmer, Lindenbaum and Delvecchio, 1993; Susser, 2002; Hirsch et al., 2002; Quinn and Overbaugh, 2005). HIV infection rates are also doubled for vulnerable youth such as orphans. By improving on participants’ employment, earnings, and income through labor market apprenticeship, including vocational training and support for self employment through microfinance, OVYPs will be better empowered for achieving self sufficiency, which will allow them reduce the risky behaviors that increase their exposure to HIV infection.
C. Description of Intervention
The National AIDS Commission of Malawi (NAC) and the Global Fund (GFATM) have designed an apprenticeship/microcredit program with the main goal of improving the employability of young people who are vulnerable to HIV/AIDS, especially girls and young women. In order to deliver these services, the specific activities that will be implemented will comprise of: sensitization of gate keepers and all key stakeholders in communities, identification of the most vulnerable beneficiaries in the communities and prioritization of the vocational skills that they require. The subsequent intervention will include the following components:
• Apprenticeship Training
• Vocational training in skills for sustainable income generation activities,
• Life skills training for HIV/AIDS and sexual health,
• Entrepreneurship and business management training,
• Entrepreneurial Support
• Microcredit through the subsidized provision of start-up tool kits (equipment, initial materials), and
• Mentoring and supervisory visits for trained youth as they launch new business activities.
The vocational training program will include skills development in various fields such as food production, sewing, soap making, carpentry, vehicle repair or bricklaying. The details on vocational training including training institution, instructor qualification, and selection of specific programs will be further discussed with the Malawi NAC and implementing partners. In addition, apprenticeship training will include an interactive life skills component, where youth participants will gain a comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS and learn how to reduce their high risk behaviors through role playing and group discussions that address real-life situations. Young people who complete their vocational training courses will receive training in entrepreneurship skills before being provided with micro-credits to start up their businesses. Entrepreneurship training will include basic financial management, budgeting, planning and skills marketing to encourage profitable and self-sustaining income generation. As many youth participants are illiterate or have low literacy skills, trainings must be adapted to their skill level.
Upon completion of the apprenticeship training, a microcredit in the form of a start-up kit will be provided according to the type of vocational training received, comprising of equipment and materials such as a sewing machine and cloth, tool boxes, or an initial stock of raw materials for production. Youth participants will be required to make a contribution to the purchase of their start-up kit to ensure their commitment and investment to their business. Subsequent to the provision of the start-up kit, the trainees begin their own business and will receive entrepreneurial support and mentoring services (e.g. advising on budgeting, bookkeeping, and accounting).
Going through the whole program (apprenticeship training and entrepreneurial support) will take approximately six months. The first treated cohort should start the program in February-March of 2010 and should finish it by July-September of that year. This concept note explains the impacts of both vocational trainings and microcredit services for the first cohort. The team will apply to other funding sources to evaluate subsequent cohorts.
The intervention will be implemented by the NAC along with local non-governmental organizations (NGO) with a close collaboration with Malawi’s traditional authorities (TAs) and local authorities (LAs). Previous experience has shown that a large number of individual youth projects have suffered from poor planning, management and accountability. While there are some cases of corruption or fraud by the community facilitator, or youth themselves, the more common problem seems to be poor decisions and management of funds. According to program officers, the most important determinants of training success are good planning (i.e., reservation of funds for tools and enterprise start-up), good investment choices (i.e., oriented towards available markets), district or community monitoring and oversight, and provision of technical extension services where required.
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The impact evaluation team has defined the following research questions for consideration:
· Does the intervention (apprenticeship training program + microcredit/start-up kit) for vulnerable youth improve the labor market outcomes (employability and earnings)
o Do the interventions improve employability for those most at risk, female and vulnerable populations?
· Does the intervention (apprenticeship training program + microcredit/start-up kit) for vulnerable youth reduce vulnerability to health risks and risky behavior?