Continuity Or Change

DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF GHANA

ELECTION 2004 PROJECT: CONSTITUENCY STUDIES

THE POLITICS OF ELECTION 2004 IN THE NKAWKAW AND AFRAM PLAINS SOUTH CONSTITUENCIES: CONTINUITY OR CHANGE?

Alexander K. D. Frempong

[This article is published: “The Politics of Election 2004 in the Nkawkaw and Afram Plains South Constituencies: Continuity or Change?” in Kwame Boafo-Arthur ed. (2006) Voting for Democracy in Ghana: The 2004 Elections in Perspective, Vol.2, Accra: Freedom Publications, pp. 207-230].

Introduction

In December 2004, the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) faced its first national electoral test as the party in power when Ghanaians went for parliamentary and presidential polls. Could the NPP retain the presidency so that it could assure itself of a second term just like its predecessor, the National Democratic Congress (NDC)? Or was the former ruling party going to stage a surprise comeback? Intriguingly, the two front runners in the presidential race, incumbent President John A. Kufuor (NPP) and former Vice President John E. A. Mills (NDC) were warriors of two electoral battles in 2000. Three small parties, the People’s National Convention (PNC), Great Consolidated People’s party (GCPP) and Every Ghanaian Living Everywhere (EGLE) party had formed a somewhat controversial ‘Grand Coalition’ and the Convention People’s Party (CPP) was also in the presidential race with a candidate in whom some members had publicly declared lack of confidence. Could these third parties be the ‘kingmakers’ the way they were four years before?

At the parliamentary level several NDC MPs who had served three terms had stepped aside; and in the NPP, many MPs had lost their primaries, often under controversial circumstances. How were these issues going to impact on their respective sizes in Parliament? Added to this complex equation were the creation of thirty new constituencies and the increasingly popular phenomenon of electoral ‘skirt and blouse’ voting by which voters were apparently yearning to vote differently in the parliamentary and presidential polls. Was there going to be an electoral hurricane or a mere storm in the tea cup of Election 2004?

It was against this background that the Department of Political Science, University of Ghana once again, undertook its DANIDA-funded pre- and post-election surveys in 50 constituencies across the ten regions of the country. Like in the previous surveys, the project aimed at examining citizens’ voting behaviour at the constituency level; the relationships between voting patterns of social groups and factors such as ethnicity, chieftaincy, gender, symbolism, etc and how they influenced voter perceptions and attitudes at both local and national levels. The surveys also examined major developments within the campaign, including the government’s record in office, popularity of candidates, strategies and tactics, media coverage and intriguingly, the issues peculiar to the selected constituencies (Ayee 2001: 1).

This chapter analyses the results of surveys in two constituencies in the Eastern Region, Nkawkaw and Afram Plains South, in relation to the dynamics of the electoral contest and actual outcomes. The fieldwork entailed pre- and post-election survey conducted in October and December respectively. The pre-election survey took place after the registration of candidates to ensure that controversies surrounding nominations had been settled. And the post-election, within a week of the polls so that the immediate post-election bloom and blues could be captured. Hundred questionnaires were administered for each constituency on each occasion, spread across both the urban and rural portions of the constituencies.[1] In addition, informal discussions were held with several stakeholders-candidates, party executives, campaign managers, District Assembly officials, etc.

The Choice and Profile of Constituencies

The choice of Nkawkaw and Afram Plains South was deliberate, in part, because this researcher wanted to continue his previous work in the constituencies; but more so because of the interesting scenarios they presented for 2004. The two constituencies had voted differently in the three previous elections - Nkawkaw for the NPP and Afram Plains South for the NDC. In the 1992 presidential election, Nkawkaw was one of the six constituencies out of twenty six in the Eastern Region that voted for the NPP. Since then, it had in 1996 and 2000(first and second ballots) given NPP’s Kufour between 60 and 80 percent while the NDC had hovered between 20 and 35 percent. The reverse had been the case in Afram Plains South. The NDC had persistently garnered not less than 68 percent in the presidential polls while the NPP’s had at best won 32 percent (Electoral Commission, 1996 & 2000). The pattern was similar at the parliamentary level. Nkawkaw, with the obvious exception of 1992[2] had returned the NPP, while for Afram Plains South, the incumbent NDC MP was completing his third term. Did any of the two constituencies have cause for change in 2004? Was it going to be continuity or change?

For a number of reasons the answer was not simple:

· Ordinarily, Nkawkaw which had stayed with the NPP even in opposition was not a likely candidate to rock the traditionally peaceful Kwahu electoral boat with its favourite party in power. Its incumbent MP, Kwabena Adusa Okerchiri, at 44, had age on his side; he had also risen in stature in Parliament over his two terms[3] and was a potential ministerial material in a new NPP government. Above all, the Nkawkaw Constituency had been converted into the long-cherished administrative district on its own, the freshly-minted Kwahu West District, one of the two in the Eastern Region and twenty eight nationwide, created by the NPP government. But by the beginning of the election year, an equally youthful candidate, Seth Adjei Baah (alias Shaba) had emerged from the ranks of the ruling party as an independent candidate and ‘infested’ Nkawkaw with the ‘skirt and blouse virus’. Even more threatening was the possibility of the split in the NPP front resulting in an NDC victory.

· The situation in Afram Plains looked different but it did not exclude the possibility of voting for change. The incumbent MP, Kwakye Addo had been humiliated in his bid for a fourth term at the NDC primary by Raphael Kofi Ahaligah. Could the NDC maintain a united front? Could the NDC continue to play up settler fears when four years into the NPP administration the settlers had not been driven from their farmlands? What was going to be the parliamentary outcome in a race in which two former independent candidates, Ahaligah and Anthony Adongo were contesting for the NDC and NPP respectively?

What did the electorate feel about these developments and how were they going to impact on Election 2004?

Geography and Demography

Nkawkaw and Afram Plains South are both in the Kwahu traditional area and are both located in Ghana’s Eastern Region. But that is as far as the similarities go. The differences are more pronounced and partly explain the differing voting patterns. The Nkawkaw Constituency is very accessible and has a largely homogeneous population, while the Afram Plains South Constituency is largely inaccessible and more heterogeneous.

Nkawkaw

The Nkawkaw Constituency, (unlike the neighbouring Abetifi and Mpraeso constituencies which lie largely on the Kwahu Mountains) is low-lying. The constituency got its name from the constituency capital, Nkawkaw township, which is the only urban centre in the constituency and covers nine of the eighteen electoral areas. In addition, the villages making up five of the remaining nine electoral areas lie along or close to the main Accra-Kumasi highway, making the constituency one of the most accessible in the Eastern region, if not the entire country. The constituency shares borders with the Mpraeso, Abetifi, Atiwa, and Birim North constituencies, all in the Eastern Region, and Asante Akim South in the Ashanti Region (Frempong 2001: 351). Until 2003, Nkawkaw Constituency was part of the Kwahu South District, but it now doubles as the Kwahu West District. The population is made up of largely native Kwahus who form about 66% (Nkansa-Kyeremateng, 2000: 28). The main occupation is trading in the constituency capital and farming in the rural areas.

Afram Plains South

The Afram Plains South Constituency, with its northern counterpart Afram Plains North, forms the Afram Plains District. Located in the northern part of the Eastern Region, the Afram Plains South constituency, indeed the entire district, is not as accessible as Nkawkaw. The main entrance to the constituency is by a rough road from the Kwahu South District capital, Mpraeso, through Kwahu Tafo to Kwahu Adawso where the three-kilometre-wide Afram River, a tributary of the Volta River, is crossed by ferry to Ekye-Amanfrom, the only other semi-urban settlement, apart from Tease, the constituency capital. Both settlements have populations of less than 5000 each (Frempong 2001: 352). The twenty two electoral areas are broad with scattered villages and hamlets and inaccessible roads. Some of the settlements are ‘overseas’ and are accessible only by motor boats. Afram Plains South shares borders with constituencies which are in Eastern, Ashanti, Brong Ahafo and Volta Regions. This clearly reflects in the diverse backgrounds of the settler population.

The population is composed of four main groups: Kwahus who constitute the indigenous inhabitants of the area, Ewes who originated from the Volta Region and had been resettled in the district as a result of the formation of the Volta Lake in 1964, other (Akan and non-Akan) Ghanaians from other regions in the country particularly Brong Ahafo, Ashanti, and the three Northern regions and non-Ghanaian groups from neighbouring states (Profile of Afram Plains, Afram Plains District Assembly, 2004).

Prior to the creation of the Volta Lake, the Afram Plains District was mainly a hunting reserve for the chiefdoms of the Kwahu Ridge in the Kwahu South District, with very low population and few settlements. But things changed as a result of the resettlement programme in the 1960s.[4] From 1970 to 2000 (latest census) the population has almost quintupled from 31,486 to 135, 928). The Akans (Kwahus and others) are now in a minority comprising only 34% compared with 39% Ewe-speakers and 20% Ghanaians from other regions of Ghana. Thus dominated by Ewes, the settlers outnumber the native Kwahus, the traditional land lords (Frempong 2001: 352). It is also significant to note that a number of the electoral areas in the constituency bear Ewe names, for instance, Mepe-Adatwi, Hlihadzi and Adzikakope (Ephson 2003: 65).

As a destination for migrant labour, the population is male dominated with 53% males and 47% female (Profile of Afram Plains, Afram Plains District, 2001 cited in Frempong 2001: 352). And being one of the major breadbaskets of the country, most of the people are engaged in agriculture - crop production in the interior and the lakeshore for cattle rearing and fishing (Profile of Afram Plains, Afram Plains District Assembly, 2004).

The level of poverty in Afram Plains is high with over 80% of the population below the poverty line of one dollar per day. Only 30% of the communities have access to safe and potable water compared to a national average of 66%. Given its profile in terms of poverty, the Afram Plains has been one of the pilot districts selected for the implementation of the UNDP-funded National Poverty Reduction Programme, among others (Profile of Afram Plains, Afram Plains District Assembly, 2004).

Profile of Respondents (Pre- and Post-Election)

Gender

The gender ratio of the 100 respondents in the pre-election in the Nkawkaw Constituency was 58 males to 42 females; and in the Afram Plains South Constituency, 55 males to 45 females. In the Ghanaian situation where females traditionally prefer to defer to their husbands or male relations, the above ratios were quite impressive. The situation did not change much in the post-election survey; there were 57% males and 43% females in Nkawkaw and 59%:41% male-female ratio in Afram Plains South.

Age Distribution

The age distribution in Nkawkaw indicated 37% in the 18-30 year bracket, 59% between 31 and 60 years, and 4% aged 61 years or more in the pre-election survey. In Afram Plains South, the corresponding percentages were 21%, 71% and 7% respectively. The greater percentage of the youth in Nkawkaw is apparently indicative of the fact that in more urbanized societies, the youth plays active role in politics. In the post election survey the percentage of respondents in the 18-30 year bracket increased in both constituencies- 48% in Nkawkaw and 30% in Afram Plains South with corresponding reduction in the sizes of the 31-60years bracket- 46% in the former and 66% in the latter. In both cases there were not more than 6% of the respondents beyond 60years.

Educational Background and Occupation

There was sharp contrast in the levels of education attained by the respondents in the two constituencies. In Nkawkaw only 6% had no formal education compared to a significant 25% in Afram Plains South; 22% and 58% respectively attained basic education (primary, middle/junior secondary), 26% and 10% with secondary education; and for tertiary, 46% in Nkawkaw and only 6% in Afram Plains South. When a similar pattern appeared in the post-election survey, it was clear that accessibility to education in Afram Plains was far more restricted than in Nkawkaw.

In terms of occupation, a significant 41% of respondents in Nkawkaw were teachers and 13% farmers; but it was the reverse in Afram Plains South where 60% were farmers and 8% teachers. It is also significant that in the two constituencies, the second largest group of respondents were traders. Nkawkaw is a major marketing centre in Kwahu and the Afram Plains attracts traders in food and livestock as well as fish from near and far. In the post election survey, teachers remained the dominant group in Nkawkaw while farmers dominated in Afram Plains South, again in both cases, traders were second.

Region and Religion

The diverse background of the people of Afram Plains in terms of home-region and religion reflected on the respondents. There were respondents who hailed from or were born in each of the ten regions of the country. Naturally, majority (58%) were from the Eastern Region but significantly, 17% were from Volta Region, 10% from Ashanti and Brong Ahafo, 7% from Upper East, Upper West and Northern. This contrasted with Nkawkaw where there were no respondents from Upper East, Upper West and Brong Ahafo regions but with 72% from the Eastern Region alone. Just over half (51%) of the respondents in the post-election survey in Afram Plains South were from the Eastern Region while the share of Voltarians increased to 20%. In Nkawkaw, respondents from the Eastern Region still formed more than 70% of the sample.