American Embassy, Tokyo

AMERICAN EMBASSY, TOKYO

PUBLIC AFFAIRS SECTION

OFFICE OF TRANSLATION AND MEDIA ANALYSIS

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DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS

October 1, 2001

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INDEX:

(1) Bush Administration expects Japan to fulfill a "military role"; In preparing for anti-terrorist campaign, cannot spare the time to visit Japan

(2) Anti-terrorist measurers to heavily burden state coffers; Tapping extra budget is option; Full-fledged coordination to start on the 30-trillion-yen national bond framework

(3) Ruling parties in unusual move make critical remarks about Prime Minister's policy speech; References to terrorism and the economy deemed insufficient

(4) Anti-terrorist war and Japan—Trauma from Gulf war (Series 1-5): Premier sets out with all-out economic diplomacy, with emphasis on "visible contributions"; Special envoys off to Middle East for assistance

(5) Simultaneous terrorist attacks -- Crisis and Japan: Gap between Defense Agency and MSDF, Foreign Ministry; Disgruntled view: "Then, why don't you go instead?"

(6) Aftermath of terrorist attacks in U.S. still impacts Okinawa; Concern about effect on tourism; Successive cancellations of school excursions and international conferences

(7) Editorial: Koizumi speech insufficient, unconvincing

ARTICLES:

(1) Bush Administration expects Japan to fulfill a "military role"; In preparing for anti-terrorist campaign, cannot spare the time to visit Japan

SANKEI (Page 4) (Full)

September 28, 2001

(Washington, September 27, Yoshihisa Komori)

It was learned on September 26 that although U.S. President Bush in his campaign against terror following the attacks on key targets in the United States does not include a combat role for Japan in the cooperation expected of it, the plan is to bring Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi through close contacts over to a stance that accepts a military role. Based on the Bush Administration's perception that an unusual rapport has grown between President Bush and Prime Minister Koizumi, gaiatsu or the usual "foreign pressure" will be avoided, but the intention reportedly of broadening terrorist policy measures is to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance relationship.

A senior U.S. official made it clear yesterday that President Bush, even before his summit meeting with Prime Minister Koizumi on the 25th, showed "an unusual enthusiasm, the President saying that he was looking forward to his meeting with Japan's prime minister." Even regarding the meeting itself, the two gave the impression that, similar to the encounters they had previously, they got along smoothly and were exactly on the same wave length.

Even after the terrorist attacks, President Bush had still planned to visit Japan and appeal for cooperation from Japan within the framework of strengthening the alliance, but on the 24th, the day before his meeting with Prime Minister Koizumi in Washington, the President decided to postpone the trip, and he told the Prime Minister on the 25th after their meeting, "that he was the first Asian leader to be informed about the postponement," according to the same high-level official.

It was not just Japan; the President postponed visits to the Republic of Korea and China, as well. The decision stemmed from the difficult situation of needing to project a strategic image to a domestic audience by giving the impression that his attending only the APEC meeting in mid-October and his shaving off the "friendship" portion would allow preparations for the anti-terrorist campaign to move full speed ahead. According to the same senior official, President Bush gives much weight to Japan's cooperation in the anti-terrorist campaign. He also reportedly has strong expectations that the amendment to the SDF Law and the bill to render assistance to the U.S., which would make it possible for such measures as rear support for U.S. troops by the SDF, would pass the Diet by mid-October.

Theological debates always pop up on the Japanese side about the exercising of collective self-defense being denied Japan and as an extension of that argument, "becoming one with the use of armed force" also being prohibited. But such debate is never found on the U.S. side. Instead, the desired approach is "not to expect Japan to play a combat role but there are cases where Japan could play a military role." The U.S. seems to maintain a position such support for the U.S. forces as transport, supply, and medical services has elements that include military action.

President Bush on this point has a different expectation of Japan's response than the U.S. did during the Gulf war. Since Japan has displayed a positive stance toward cooperation with the U.S. and the international community, he has decided to avoid anything that smacks of gaiatsu (foreign pressure), and even in their bilateral summit meeting at the upcoming APEC leaders' meeting in Shanghai, he would like Japan to handle cooperation on its own initiative within the framework of strengthening the bilateral alliance.

The content of the cooperation that is expected of Japan is not just basic military affairs, but has expanded to include political and diplomatic efforts, intelligence gathering, and rear-area support. On the other hand, however, as the U.S. gets closer to launching a military operation, the worst nightmare for the Bush Administration vis-à-vis Japan reportedly would be to see Japan unable to take defense steps for the cooperative effort and to withdraw its bill supporting the U.S. and other legislative measures.

(01092802bb)

(2) Anti-terrorist measurers to heavily burden state coffers; Tapping extra budget is option; Full-fledged coordination to start on the 30-trillion-yen national bond framework

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)

September 28, 2001

The outlook is that anti-terrorist measures being planned will place a heavy load on government coffers. It will require a huge amount of money to dispatch the Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) for logistical support for the U.S. military, in addition to extending economic assistance to countries surrounding Afghanistan, against which U.S. armed forces are expected to launch a retaliatory attack. The Government is likely to find itself pressed to earmark funds for such operations in the fiscal 2001 supplementary budget. Chances are that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi will have no choice but to adjust the 30-trillion-yen national bond issue framework, which he himself laid down.

Expectations on economic assistance

A request for further economic assistance awaited Senior Foreign Vice Minster Seiken Sugiura in Pakistan, where he arrived bearing a "souvenir" of 40 million dollars in economic assistance. During a meeting with Sugiura on the 26th, Foreign Minister Sattar hinted at expectations of even more assistance. He noted, "The refugee problem is likely to escalate. We would appreciate Japan's continued assistance." If U.S. forces start attacks on Afghanistan, Pakistan will be flooded with a large number of refugees from that country. If that happens, the possibility is high that Pakistan will ask for additional aid from Japan. A certain senior MOFA official revealed, "The U.S. Government also has high expectations of Japan rendering generous economic assistance."

The Government is also considering extending economic assistance to Iran, which holds the key in building an Afghan encirclement. It plans to extend cooperation to that country in the form of grant aid under the precondition of its cooperating with the U.S. It is also likely that Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which are bordered by Afghanistan, will also ask for Japan's economic assistance.

Dispatch of SDF cost stupendous sum of money

A Foreign Ministry (MOFA) source stated:

"The destinations of official development assistance (ODA) for this fiscal year have already been fixed. There are hardly any budgetary funds left for additional disbursements for anti-terrorist measures."

The source then went on to say that various measures, including an extra budget, would be needed in order to render full-fledged assistance to countries neighboring Afghanistan.

After obtaining a Diet approval regarding new anti-terrorist legislation, Japan will send Self-Defense Forces (SDF) personnel for rear-area support for U.S. forces and to aid refugees. Such activities are estimated to entail considerably sizable expenditures. A Defense Agency (JDA) source revealed that even the dispatch of SDF personnel in 1992 for monitoring the cease-fire in Cambodia cost 6 to 7 billion yen.

The costs of the dispatch of the SDF are determined largely by what military operations U.S. forces will carry out. However, the duties this time are an event without precedent. Some in JDA wondered, "At the present stage, it is not possible to estimate how much such operations will cost." The costs are, however, bound to reach hundreds of billions of yen. It might be impossible to procure such a colossal amount of funds in the current budget. If that happens, the supplementary budget may have to be recompiled.

No budgetary limitation to be set

" We will take bold and flexible measures should an unexpected incident occur. The terrorist incident this time around is such a case." The Prime Minister thus indicated a stance of not sticking to his policy line of constraining the amount of new national bond issues to no more than 30 trillion yen a year, if it is necessary to overturn that policy line to stave off an economic turmoil stemming from the recent terrorist attacks and to render assistance.

In the state budget for this fiscal year 350 billion yen is the sum earmarked as reserves. It is possible to use those funds for the emergency situation. However, if the U.S. military's expenditures keep expanding, the U.S. might ask Japan to shoulder a certain share of those costs. In 1991, Japan contributed a total of 13 billion yen.

At the day's meeting of the LDP General Council, former Home Affairs Minister Mitsuhiro Uesugi asked a question on funds needed for anti-terrorist measures: "What is the government's funding plan in relation to the 30 trillion yen framework?" Policy Affairs Research Council Chairman Taro Aso replied, "Funding should not be constrained by the budget." The simultaneous terrorist attacks are beginning to work as a major factor disrupting the Koizumi Administration's fiscal reconstruction line.

(01092803yk)

(3) Ruling parties in unusual move make critical remarks about Prime Minister's policy speech; References to terrorism and the economy deemed insufficient

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)

September 28, 2001

In yesterday's policy speech before a plenary session of both chambers of the Diet, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi announced his resolve to do his utmost to bring about economic recovery and to implement anti-terrorist measures, while firmly maintaining a structural reform line. Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Taku Yamasaki heaped stock praise on his speech, giving it full marks. However, not only opposition parties but also a number of ruling party members complained about the way the Prime Minister referred to the packages of anti-terrorist and economic stimulus measures.

After the speech, the Prime Minister told reporters in a gratified tone, " It was strange but I felt much calmer than last time in May when I first delivered a policy speech." His remarks generally received a good response in the LDP, too, with one member saying, "It touched on specific policies from a broad perspective."

New Komeito head Takenori Kanzaki commented, "The Prime Minister demonstrated his policy line with simple and lucid language," but he then added, "Since the public is highly interested in what measures Japan will take in countering terrorism, I wanted him to make more substantive statements." Regarding economic issues, he said, "I wanted him to send a powerful message on how Japan is going to tide over a potential global recession."

Regarding reform of the Lower House election system, an issue in which New Komeito has a strong interest, Kanzaki spoke about the atmosphere of discontent permeating his party, "His policy speech did not take up themes that are likely to evoke heated discussion during the current session. I would like to question his basic stance during interpellations.

New Conservative Party (Hoshuto) nead Tsuyoshi Noda gave high marks to the Prime Minister's positive stance toward the recent terrorist incident. But he then complained, "There is growing concern about a recessions across the world in the wake of the terrorist attacks. We wanted him to bring up the notion of economic crisis management a little more."

From the opposition parties' side, Minshuto (Democratic Party of Japan) head Yukio Hatoyama bitterly commented, "Those were not Prime Minister Koizumi's own words. He should not make dull policy speeches that lack principles." Japan Communist Party (JCP) Chairman Kazuo Shii slammed Prime Minister Koizumi's anti-terrorist measures, "His speech failed to account for his seven-item assistance measures. It is an irresponsible speech."

Social Democratic Party Head Takako Doi also was critical: "He did not give any accounting for the seven-item assistance measures, which touch on the roots of this state. His speech absolutely makes light of the Diet." Jiyuto (Liberal Party) Secretary General Hirohisa Fujii dented the Prime Minister's enthusiasm, "It was utterly abstract and lacked specifics. There is a strong possibility of anti-terrorist measures dragging on and on as they did in the prewar period."

(01092804yk)

NIHON KEIZAI (Page 2) (Full)

September 27, 2001

On the night of September 26, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi summoned ruling coalition leaders to his official residence immediately after returning home from Washington. The prime minister pledged himself to engage the Self-Defense Forces in rear support for U.S. forces [over the recent simultaneous occurrence of terrorist attacks in the U.S.] The Diet opens an extraordinary session from September 27. The government now must have relevant legislative measures pass the Diet as soon as possible, or its base will be rocked.

In the prime minister's absence from Japan, the government went on with diplomatic schedules at the working level. That morning, Senior Vice Foreign Minister Seiken Sugiura arrived in Pakistan. Furthermore, the government decided to send former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto to Egypt and former Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura to Saudi Arabia as the prime minister's special envoys.

There is just so much Japan can do with the Middle East. Japan just last year resumed an additional yen loan program for Iran after a lapse of five years. The Japanese government is now planning a new package of economic assistance for that country, including grant aid. What Japan can consider for Egypt, which has a great influence on the Arab nations, is also only economic assistance. In an effort to give luster to Japan's economic cards, the government has taken the pathetic diplomatic approach of appointing big-name envoys.