Cecimo
EUnited
Ceemet
Study to anticipate the consequences of environmental sustainability policies on employment and skills in the Machine tools and Robotics sector
Final Report 19 October 2016
CONTENTS
1Executive summary......
2Introduction......
3The Machine tools and Robotics sectors......
3.1Robotics......
3.1.1Structure of the sector......
3.1.2Main application markets......
3.2Machine-tools......
3.2.1Structure of the sector......
3.2.2Main application markets......
4Methodology......
4.1Qualitative analysis of technology trends and future skills needs......
4.1.1Step 1: Policy mapping and identification of drivers and market opportunities...
4.1.2Step 2: Interviews to forecast technology trends and related future skills needs..
4.2Quantitative analysis of changes in employment......
5Results of the analysis......
5.1Key technology trends resulting from sustainability policies......
5.1.1Robotics......
5.1.1.1Technological trends in the robotics sector......
5.1.1.2Light weighting......
5.1.1.3Energy efficiency optimization......
5.1.1.4Smaller robots......
5.1.1.5Refurbishment and reprogramming of robots......
5.1.1.6Robots in precision farming......
5.1.1.7Robots in waste sorting......
5.1.1.8Other trends......
5.1.2Machine tools sector......
5.1.2.1Technological trends in the machine tools industry......
5.1.2.2Machine tools light weighting......
5.1.2.3Lower consumption of lubricants......
5.1.2.4Machine power management......
5.1.2.5Application markets and the impact on the machine tools industry......
5.2Future skills needs......
5.2.1Programming......
5.2.2(Big) data analytics......
5.2.3Material sciences......
5.2.4Advanced sensors......
5.2.5Energy management......
5.2.6Environmental management......
5.2.7Mechanical Engineering......
5.2.8Eco-Design and maintenance......
5.2.9Green business model management......
5.2.10Knowledge of end-user requirements in new markets......
5.3Employment changes......
5.3.1Machine tools sector......
5.3.2Robotics sector......
5.3.3Sensitivity analysis......
5.3.4Summarized results......
6Conclusions......
6.1Future technology trends and related skills needs......
6.2Changes in employment......
6.3Other insights......
7Policy recommendations......
Glossary......
1Executive summary
The report outlines the consequences of sustainability policies for skills and employment in the European machine tools and robotics sectors. It is part of a project commission by industriAll European Trade Union, Cecimo, EUnited, and Ceemet, and financed through a grant by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion under the heading ‘Support to social dialogue’. The aim of the report is to identify policy recommendations that can facilitate a smooth transition to sustainability in the machine tools and robotics sector.
The starting point of the analysis was a mapping of sustainability policies that are likely to affect the industrial sector in general and the machine tools and robotics sectors in particular. The studied policy areas included energy and climate change policies, circular economy and resource efficiency policies, eco-design and eco-innovation, and other relevant sectoral policies. Based on this mapping, a number of market opportunities arising from sustainability policies were identified, most notably in precision farming and waste sorting for the robotics sector. The further analysis was split into a qualitative and quantitative part. In the qualitative part, 27 interviews with stakeholders[1] from the machine tools and robotics sectors were carried out in order to identify technological trends induced by sustainability policies and related changes in skills needs. In the quantitative part, the effects of sustainability policies on employment were modelled through input-output-analysis.
The qualitative analysis showed that a number of (technological) trends are likely to arise or be spurred by sustainability policies. In the robotics sector these is light weighting, energy efficiency optimization, smaller robots, refurbishment and reprogramming of robots, robots in precision farming, robots in waste sorting, offering more services, and integrating sustainability concerns more strongly into operational processes. For the machine tools sector, the main trends are (also) light weighting, lower consumption of lubricants, and machine power management. Based on these trends, a number of future skills needs were identified, most importantly: programming, (big) data analytics, material sciences, advanced sensors applications, mechanical engineering, environmental management, energy management, and green business model management.[2] These skill needs mostly refer to highly skilled specialists (e.g. engineers, programmers) who are designing and building the robots and machine tools. The interviews did not provide evidence that the skill needs of lower skilled workers who actually connect machine tools and robots would be altered significantly. Table 1 shows how these skills needs relate to the identified technology trends.
Table 1: skills needs by technology trend
Technology TrendsRobotics / Machine tools
Light-weighting / Energy efficiency optimization / Smaller robots / Refurbishment of robots / Reprogramming of robots / Robots in precision farming / Robots in waste sorting / Life-Cycle Assessment / Dry Lubrication or MQL / Light-weighting / Power management
Skills / Mechanical engineering
Programming
(Big) data analytics
Environmental management
Energy management
Material sciences
Advanced sensors
Green Business Model Management
The quantitative analysis showed that sustainability policies in general are anticipated to have a marginally negative effect on the employment in the machine tools and robotics sectors, but to trigger a strong decrease in carbon emissions. However, this is to be cautiously interpreted, as there are many variables in assessing the effects of sustainability policies, especially given the 15 years horizon and indirect (highly dissipated) effects such as light-weighing.In the case of global implementation of sustainability policies (one of three scenarios), a reduction of 9.000 jobs, equivalent to circaonly 3% of all jobs in the two sectors, by 2030 was calculated, compared to the projected employment in 2030 with the current set of policies (to be compared with carbon emissions being reduced by 27% when comparing the same two scenarios). This trend is explained by the relative decline in the energy sector and a further shift to the service-oriented economy under stringent sustainability policies. Furthermore, the increasing focus on the eco-design of products means that consumers would buy less durables and spend more on repairing services. This leads to an overall reduction of the industrial sectors in production volume and a rise for service providers.
No significant difference in employment effects was observed between a scenario in which Europe alone implements sustainability policies and a scenario in which sustainability policies are implemented globally. However, this can probably be attributed to the fact that border adjustment measures were adopted (e.g. a border tax) to help to maintain the competitive position of the European industries in the scenario in which Europe alone implements sustainability policies. Furthermore, the results indicate unequivocally that new market opportunities arising from sustainability policies are crucial for the creation of new jobs in the sectors. The new opportunities created in the robotics sector through the rise of precision farming and new uses of robots in waste recycling are expected to create around 4.300 new robotics jobs in Europe.
The results of the analytical work show that much can be gained by putting in place the right policies. Implementing well-targeted R&D&I and skills policies will help the two sectors to mitigate the negative effects of sustainability policies and reap the benefits of newly arising market opportunities.
2Introduction
The recent United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) held in Paris powerfully illustrated that the global economy is at the beginning of a transitional phase towards more sustainability. The future economy will be more resource-efficient and less carbon-intensive. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, minimizing environmental pressures (e.g. water and air pollution), maintaining biodiversity and establishing a true circular economy will be key areas for action. While these adjustments are necessary to maintain the basis of human civilisation on the planet as we know it, they will also require a major transformation of the way our economies function. Without doubt there will be winners and losers in this shift towards greater sustainability. Some industries, such as renewable energy production or environmental technologies, are likely to profit, while other sectors, such as the coal sector, are already now in the process of declining.
Much attention has been devoted to identifying the effects of possible sustainability policies on our economies. Large European projects, such as EMInInn, DESIRE, Carbon-Cap, or POLFREE are only a few examples to mention. By studying how sustainability policies will affect the economy and employment in particular, policy makers hope to be able to take counter measures to mitigate the any undesirable side effects of sustainability policies. In fact there is a lot policy makers can do in order to ensure a “smooth” transition to sustainability. Firstly, they can design sustainability policies in such a way that they ensure a level playing field internationally. Secondly, they can stimulate the economy to invest in those sectors that are likely to profit from the shift towards sustainability. Thirdly, they can provide the right framework conditions, for example by providing a skilled work force or investments in public research, that enable companies to re-orientate themselves and cope with the transformation.
This study has the overarching objective to identify policy recommendations to facilitate a smooth transition to sustainability in the machine tools and robotics sectors. It has been commissioned by industriAll European Trade Union, as coordinator, Cecimo and EUnited, as co-applicants, and Ceemet as associate organization. It is financed through a grant by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion under the heading “Support to social dialogue”. The machine tools and robotics sectors were chosen because of their importance to the European manufacturing sector. The study focuses on future skills needs and expected employment changes induced by sustainability polices in the two sectors in particular. The study has a pilot character, meaning that similar studies investigating other sectors could be envisaged in the future. These could greatly benefit from the methodology developed in this project.
The study is carried out in the following three phases:
1)anticipating the consequences of environmental sustainability policies on employment and skills in the machine tool & robotics sectors;
2)defining the concrete content of a smooth transition to sustainability in the sectors and the means to leverage sustainability policies to improve the sectors’ long-term skills and technology-based competitiveness;
3)recommending public policies aiming at the sectors’ long-term skills and technology-based competitiveness, and at its smooth transition to sustainability.
3The Machine tools and Robotics sectors
3.1Robotics
3.1.1Structure of the sector
The European robotics sector is not comprised of a homogeneous mass of companies, but of a variety of several distinctly different types of companies; where each type has a specific position in the robotics value chain. Based on the study ‘A Helping Hand for Europe: The Competitive Outlook for the EU Robotics Industry’[3] (2010) the following types of companies can be identified:
- Original robot designers and suppliers who market robots as a branded product;
- Suppliers of standard components (e.g. sensors, motors, actuators, electronics) who provides parts to robot producers;
- Suppliers of specialised components (e.g. laser welding applications);
- Systems integration specialists who integrate robots in a wider system (e.g. in an automobile plant);
- Companies providing other services around robotics (e.g. refurbishment of robots);
- Software suppliers.
A rough overview of the position of each of these types of companies in the robotics value chain is depicted in figure 1 below. To obtain a broad overview of the impact of sustainability policies on the whole robotics sector, companies of different types were interviewed.
Figure 1: Position of different types of companies in robotics value chain (TNO adaptation based on IPTS report)
3.1.2Main application markets
In recent years a shift has been observed in the application areas of robots. While historically the majority of robots were employed in industrial manufacturing, an increasing market for service robotics is emerging (e.g. robots in households or robots in health care). The study ‘A Helping Hand for Europe: The Competitive Outlook for the EU Robotics Industry’[4] (2010) identifies the following application markets as being the most relevant for the European robotics sector:
- Medical and care;
- Security;
- Transport;
- Industrial manufacturing;
- Food processing;
- Hazardous environments;
- Agriculture;
- Domestic service;
- Professional service, and
- Toys.
It should be noted that some application markets are more strongly affected by sustainability policies than others. For example the agricultural and manufacturing sector have a much higher impact on the environment and are therefore more strongly targeted by sustainability policies than other sectors that have smaller impacts, such as domestics services or medical and care.
3.2Machine-tools
3.2.1Structure of the sector
Providing a definition of the machine tools sector is not an easy task because there is a limited common understanding of a machine tool, and standards and legislation do not provide an unambiguous definition of “machine tools”. The Energy-Using Product Group Analysis - Lot 5 on Machine tools and related machinery[5] provides a useful definition based on the engineering consideration that cutting, shaping and joining are typically those technologies employed by machine tools, together with economic classifications, standards on process technologies, and taking into account the existing legal framework (the Machinery Directive, 2006/42/EC). The study defines a machine tool as a:
“stationary or transportable assembly, which is neither portable by hand nor mobile, and which is dependent on energy input (such as electricity from the grid or stand-alone / back-up power sources, hydraulic or pneumatic power supply, but not solely manually operated) when in operation, and consists of linked parts or components, at least one of which moves, and which are joined together for a specific application, which is the geometric shaping of workpieces made of arbitrary materials using appropriate tools and forming, cutting, physico-chemical processing or joining technologies, the use of which results in a product of defined reproducible geometry, and intended for professional use”.
From the study mentioned above it emerges that there the machine tools industry is not standardised in terms of environmental performance. This is a fundamental characteristic of the sector and it regards three main areas of manufacturing:
- Inputs;
- Outputs;
- Controls.
These three domains represent the components of what can be considered a closed system, as reported in the figure below.
Figure 2: Factors influencing the environmental impact of a machine tool
Source: own adaptation from G. Campatelli, Reducing the environmental footprint of machining operations, 2013
The inputs include the elements that machine tools need to operate on a specific material through the turning process. This process can be controlled first of all by switching among power use modes (such as on, off, stand by), as well as by modifying the speed of cutting and feed, the depth of the cut, the amount of lubricant used. By interacting in this way on the machine, it is possible to obtain different finished goods, with different scraps and exhaust fluids. If we try to classify machine tools based on the ways in which they can used and controlled based on the elements specified above, it emerges that there the machine tools sector is not standardised. Specifically there are still many differences in marking/ labelling of materials/ components (e.g. identification of hazardous substances), power consumption measurements (machines and modules), power modes, power management, consumption of lubricants (measurements, assessment), consumption of compressed air (measurements), and process waste generation measurement including yield losses[6].
In the field of machine tools design several studies have been carried out in order to evaluate the environmental impact of certain combinations of materials and/or technical solutions, thanks to the development of structured and database-based tools such the LCA (Life Cycle Assessment, defined by the ISO 14000 standards) and following LCM (Life Cycle Management). The environmental impact of a machining process could be studied as a close system. The factors that must be taken into account are energy, raw materials, coolant, tools while in the output must be considered the scraps and the exhaust fluids[7].
Many studies have been focused on the environmental impact of lubrication in the machining process. One important result which has recently come to light is that dry lubrication decreases the total power consumption of machine tools. Dry lubrication uses more power for cutting (about +11% compared to flooded lubrication) but eliminates the need for power in the lubrication system (pumps, filters), thus resulting in an overall decrease in power consumption.
From the interviews conducted with companies in the sector, academic and industry experts it emerges that the machine tools sector is populated by a few very large multinational market leaders, surrounded by thousands of small enterprises.Companies can also be differentiated based on their product strategy. Experts of the sector clarified indeed that some companies offer a bespoke product for their customers, designed on specific technical requirements specified by the client and dedicated to a specific use within the customer production process. Other companies, on the other hand, have a standard range of products.
The non-standardisation of the sector is of importance for the objectives of this study of identifying technology trends and skills needs because specific technologies, technology developments, market opportunities and drivers, skills needs vary substantially across the sector. This feature of the sector means that it is not possible to perform a rigid classification of application markets, technology trends, skills needs, which could be valid for the entirety of the sector. In order to obtain the results specified in the present study, the team prompted the interviewees in order to acquire data that could be valid horizontally for the various typologies of machine tools companies.
3.2.2Main application markets
Machine tools are widely used in all manufacturing sectors in which production processes include the modification of metal, plastic, wood, stone, ceramics and also new materials. It is hence very difficult to draft a list of application markets which does not include all industrial sectors. However, from the interviews conducted in the context of the present study it is possible to state that the most important markets for machine tools are:
- Automotive;
- Railways;
- Aviation;
- Medical;
- Energy production;
- Civil infrastructure.
4Methodology