The Morning Call/
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
SURVEY OF PENNYLVANIANS ON
PRESIDENT BUSH’S JOB PERFORMANCE:
INCLUDING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE WAR IN IRAQ, GAS PRICES and HURRICANE KATRINA
KEY FINDINGS REPORT
September 26, 2005
KEY FINDINGS
- President George W. Bush has seen his job approval and personal favorability ratings decline to very low levels among Pennsylvania Voters.
- The War in Iraq continues to be unpopular among voters in the KeystoneState, with high disapproval rates of the president’s handling of the war and deep doubts about the value of the war in relation to costs.
- Commonwealth voters indicate that they are being substantially effected by rising gas prices, with most indicating that they are driving less and cutting back on other household spending.
- A slight majority of Pennsylvania residents indicated that they approve of the way President Bush is handling the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, with a substantial minority disapproving of his efforts.
METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a telephone survey of 477 registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania between September 18 and 25, 2005. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was generated by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was conducted by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion and PMI of Easton Pennsylvania. This number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 4.5% at the 95% confidence interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups such as registered Democrats and Republicans is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages throughout the survey have been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100%. Due to a higher number of completions from women the data was weighted to more accurately represent the distribution of voters throughout the commonwealth. The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D. of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with staff members of the Morning Call. Analysis and report writing were completed by the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion under the direction of Dr. Borick.
Survey Findings
With his administration facing a number of domestic and international challenges, President George W. Bush has seen his support among Pennsylvania voters dip to very low levels. From strong disapproval of the president’s management of the War in Iraq to mixed reviews on his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the Pennsylvania electorate has grown increasingly dissatisfied with Bush’s presidency. These are among the findings of the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey of voters in the commonwealth.
Overall Attitudes towardsthe President
With the backdrop of an unpopular war, high gas prices and stinging criticism of his handling of the Hurricane Katrina aftermath, President George W. Bush has seen his job approval ratings drop to fairly low levels among voters in the KeystoneState. More specifically, only 40% of Pennsylvania registered voters indicated that they approve of the way the 43rd President is handling his job, with 54% disapproving of his performance as chief executive. These findings are fairly consistent with recent national polls[i] which had his approval ratings at 40%.
In addition to low job approval ratings the President’s personal favorability levels are suffering in the KeystoneState. Most notably, a slight majority (51%) of commonwealth voters indicated that they have an unfavorable impression of Bush, with only 42% expressing favorable views of the nation’s chief executive. This 42% favorability mark is the lowest level since the Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Survey began tracking this indicator in early 2003. Table One Below shows this trend.
TABLE ONE
“Is your impression of George w. Bush favorable or unfavorable.”
November 03
/ March 04 / May 04 / October04 / September 05
Favorable
/ 54% / 51% / 47% / 49% / 42%Unfavorable
/ 37% / 44% / 49% / 47% / 51%Neutral/Not Sure
/ 9% / 5% / 4% / 4% / 7%The President and Iraq
As with his overall standing with Pennsylvanians, President Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq has reached new lows. Only 34% of voters in the commonwealth approve of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, compared with 57% disapproving of the commander in chief’s management of the situation. As TableTwodemonstrates these levels of support are the culmination of a trend that has been ongoing over the past two years.
Table Two
Approval Rates of George W. Bush’s
Handling of the Situation in Iraq
Response / March 04 / May 04 / Oct 04 / March 05 / Sept 05Approve / 45% / 42% / 41% / 40% / 34%
Disapprove / 42% / 46% / 49% / 53% / 57%
Not Sure / 10% / 11% / 8% / 5% / 9%
Refused / 2% / <1% / 2% / 3% / 1%
The president’s low approval ratings on his handling of Iraq can be partially explained by diminished public perceptions of the war’s value. By an overwhelming margin (59% to 34%), KeystoneState voters do not believe the benefits of the war are greater than the costs. Similarly, by an almost 2 to 1 margin Pennsylvania voters do not believe that going to war in Iraq has made the nation safer from terrorism. Given the Bush administration’s position that the Iraq conflict is a key plank in the larger war on terrorism, public skepticism regarding its success in making the nation safer is particularly troubling for the administration. Tables 3 and 4 demonstrate these declining rates of public satisfaction.
Table Three
“All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?”
Response / March 04 / May 04 / Oct 04 / March 05 / Sept 05Worth Fighting / 47% / 41% / Na / 38% / 34%
Not Worth Fighting / 42% / 49% / Na / 53% / 59%
Not Sure / 10% / 9% / Na / 6% / 7%
Refused / 2% / 1% / Na / 3% / 0%
Table Four
‘In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made
Americans safer from terrorism, or not?”
Response / March 04 / May 04 / Oct 04 / March 05 / Sept 05Safer From Terrorism / 39% / 36% / 37% / 35% / 33%
Not Safer From Terrorism / 48% / 56% / 56% / 56% / 60%
Not Sure / 12% / 8% / 7% / 6% / 7%
Refused / 2% / <1% / <1% / 2% / <1%
Gas Prices
As gas prices have risen sharply over the past year, and particularly in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, Pennsylvanians indicate that they are feeling the effects on their pocket books. About 3 out of 4 voters in the state indicate that higher gasoline prices have affected them “a lot”.
Table Five
“How Much Do Higher Gas Prices Affect You Personally”
Response / PercentA lot / 74%
Not Much / 19%
Not at all / 6%
Not sure / 1%
In particular, Pennsylvanians seem to be making changes in their lifestyles do to rising fuel costs. The survey indicates 7 out of 10 respondents have cut down on the amount that they drive because of higher gasoline prices. On an even broader level, over half (52%) of commonwealth voters reported that they have cut back on household spending as a result of increases in gas prices.
Table Six
“Have You Cut Down on the Amount of Driving You Do”
Response / PercentYes / 70%
No / 28%
Not sure / 2%
Table Seven
“Have You Cut Back on Household Spending on Other Things”
Response / PercentYes / 52%
No / 47%
Not sure / 2%
Hurricane Katrina
Much of the nation’s attention has been focused upon the tragedies associated with Hurricane Katrina’s hit on the gulf coast. Among the topics associated with the aftermath has been the performance of President Bush and the federal government in responding to the catastrophe. Many national polls have shown significant displeasure with the President’s handling of the hurricane’s damage, with the Associated Press reporting a 51% disapproval rate from a poll released September 18th. The findings of our survey demonstrate that a slight majority (51%) of Pennsylvania voters now approve of the way the president is handling the situation caused by Katrina, with 41% disapproving. This comparatively favorable appraisal of the President’s performance of the president’s performance on this matter may be partially explained by the timing of our survey in the wake of the departure of FEMA director Mike Brown and the stabilizing situation in New Orleans and other GulfCoast communities.
Christopher P. Borick
Director Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
[i] Both the Associated Press and Gallup had President Bush’s job approval rating at 40% during the period of September 16-18, 2005.