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The End of Enchainment:
Will the Removal of Textile and Clothing Quotas
Bring Us Enchantment?
— Diagrams —
Seminar on
The WTO and the Doha Development Agenda
A PREM/WBI Training Course
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
April 25–26, 2005
by
Dean Spinanger
Kiel Institute for World Economics
Duesternbrooker Weg 120
24105 Kiel, Germany
Tel/Fax: +49-431-8814 207/500
E-mail:
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List of Diagrams
Diagram 1a —Textile, Clothing and World Exports in Bill. US$: 1965–2003...... 51
Diagram 1b —Textile, Clothing and World Exports in % of World Exports: 1965–2003...... 51
Diagram 2 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in GDP...... 52
Diagram 3 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in Total Exports...... 53
Diagram 4 —Tariff Liberalization and Contingent Protection by and against APEC...... 54
Diagram 5 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in Textile Exports ...... 55
Diagram 6 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in Clothing Exports ...... 56
Diagram 7 —Sweden's Textile (SITC 65) Exports & Clothing (SITC 84) Imports to/from Selected Regions in % of (NON-OECD+P;GR;SP), 1980-2001 57
Diagram 8a —Canadian Imports of Woven Cotton Men's Shirts (HS620520) of Major Suppliers –
% of Total...... 58
Diagram 8b —Canadian Imports of Woven MMF's Shirts (HS620530) of Major Suppliers –
% of Total...... 59
Diagram 9a —US Imports of Brassieres (Categories 349/649) from Mexico and Regions –
% of Total...... 60
Diagram 9b —US Imports of Brassieres (Categories 349/649) from Latin American Countries and Other Countries NES– % of Total 61
Diagram 9c —US Imports of Brassieres (Categories 349/649) from China and Other Asian Countries – % of Total 62
Diagram 10a —US Imports of Textile (SITC 65) by Countries 1994–2003: % of Total...... 633
Diagram 10b —US Imports of Clothing (SITC 84) by Countries 1994–2003: % of Total...... 64
Diagram 10c —US Imports of Textile and Clothing (SITC 65+84) by Countries 1994–2002:
% of Total...... 65
Diagram 11a — Performance of US Clothing Imports (SITC 84) by Regional Groups: % of Total...... 66
Diagram 11b — Performance of US Textile Imports (SITC 65) by Regional Groups...... 67
Diagram 11c — Performance of US Textile and Clothing Imports (SITC 65+84) by Regional Groups....68
Diagram 12a —EU15 Imports of Clothing (SITC 84) by Countries 1994–2002: % Change in Shares.....69
Diagram 12b —EU15 Imports of Textile (SITC 65) by Countries 1994–2002: % Change in Shares...... 70
Diagram 12c —EU15 Imports of Textile and Clothing (SITC 65+84) by Countries 1994–2002:
% Change in Shares...... 71
Diagram 13a —Performance of EU Clothing Imports (SITC 84) by Regional Groups...... 72
Diagram 13b —Performance of EU Textile Imports (SITC 65) by Regional Groups...... 73
Diagram 13c —Performance of EU Clothing and Textile Imports (SITC 65+84) by Regional Groups....74
Diagram 14 —Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports, 1990–2003 75
Diagram 15 —Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports, 1990–2003 76
Diagram 16 —US Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America...77
Diagram 17 —Canadian Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America 78
Diagram 18 —EU Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America...79
Diagram 19 —Japanese Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America 80
Diagram 20 —Australian and New Zealand Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America 81
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Diagram 1a —Textile, Clothing and World Exports in Bill. US$: 1965–2003
Diagram 1b —Textile and Clothing Exports in % of World Exports: 1965–2003
Source: Own calculations based on GATT/WTO data.
Diagram 2 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in GDP
Quota elimination
Greater China accession
Total accession
Source: Own calculations see text.
Diagram 3 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in Total Exports
Quota elimination
Greater China accession
Total accession
Source: Own calculations see text.
Diagram 4 —Tariff Liberalization and Contingent Protection by and against APEC
Source:Own calculations for all 21 APEC economies based on unpublished IMF data for the tariff rates, backed by information from the Interactive TradeMap of International Trade Center ( The ADMs stem from annual WTO anti-dumping notifications ( The ADM data cover two three-year periods 7/1989 – 6/1992 and 7/1998 – 6/2001. For a detailed analyses see ABAC background paper by Dean Spinanger (2002).
Diagram 5 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in Textile Exports
Quota elimination
Greater China accession
Total accession
Source: Own calculations see text.
Diagram 6 —Impact of Greater China's WTO Accession: % Change in Clothing Exports
Quota elimination
Greater China accession
Total accession impact
Source: Own calculations see text.
Diagram 7 —Sweden’s Textile (SITC 65) Exports & Clothing (SITC 84) Imports to/from Selected Regions in % of (NON-OECD+P;GR;SP), 1980–2001
HOW EU COUNTRIES MIGHT REACT WHEN QUOTAS ARE ELIMINATED END 2004
TEXTILE EXPORTS CLOTHING IMPORTS
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS and data provided by the Swedish government for the years 1999-2001.
Diagram 8a —Canadian Imports of Woven Cotton Men's Shirts (HS620520) by Major Suppliers – % of Total
Source: Own calculations based on Trade Data Online:
Diagram 8b —Canadian Imports of Woven MMF’s Shirts (HS620530) by Major Suppliers
– % of Total
Source: Own calculations based on Trade Data Online:
Diagram 9a —US Imports of Brassieres (Categories 349/649) from Mexico and Regions – % of Total
Annual
Monthly: Moving 3-month average
Source: Own calculations based on Trade Data Online: .
Diagram 9b —US Imports of Brassieres (Categories 349/649) from Latin American Countries and Other Countries NES – % of Total
Annual
Monthly. Moving 3-month average
Source: Own calculations based on Trade Data Online: .
Diagram 9c —US Imports of Brassieres (Categories 349/649) from China and Other Asian Countries – % of Total
Annual
Monthly: Moving 3-month average
Source: Own calculations based on Trade Data Online: .
Diagram 10a —US Imports of Clothing (SITC 84) by Countries 1994–2003: % of Total
Source: Own calculations based on USITC data:
Diagram 10b —US Imports of Textile (SITC 65) by Countries 1994–2003: % of Total
Source: Own calculations based on USITC data:
Diagram 10c —US Imports of Textile and Clothing (SITC 65 + 84) by Countries 1994–2003:
% of Total
Source: Own calculations based on USITC data:
Diagram 11a — Performance of US Clothing Imports (SITC 84) by Regional Groups: % of Total
Source: Own calculations based on USITC data:
Diagram 11b — Performance of US Textile Imports (SITC 65) by Regional Groups
Source: Own calculations based on USITC data:
Diagram 11c —Performance of US Textile and Clothing Imports (SITC 65+84) by Regional Groups
Source: Own calculations based on USITC data:
Diagram 12a —EU15 Imports of Clothing (SITC 84) by Countries 1994–2002: % Change in Shares
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 12b —EU15 Imports of Textile (SITC 65) by Countries 1994–2002: % Change in Shares
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 12c —EU15 Imports of Textile and Clothing (SITC 65 + 84) by Countries 1994–2002: % Change in Shares
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 13a —Performance of EU Clothing Imports (SITC 84) by Regional Groups
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 13b —Performance of EU Textile Imports (SITC 65) by Regional Groups
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 13c —Performance of EU Textile and Clothing Imports (SITC 65+84) by Regional Groups
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 14 —Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports, 1990–2003
Germany / FranceItaly / Netherlands
Sweden / United Kingdom
Source: OECD, ITCS, own calculations.
Diagram 15 —Clothing (SITC 84) Imports of Major EU Countries and USA from Selected South Asian Countries in % of Non-OECD Imports, 1990–2003
United States / CanadaJapan / Australia + New Zealand (2003 only Australia)
Source: OECD, ITCS, own calculations.
Diagram 16 —US Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America
SITC 65 + 84
SITC 65
SITC 84
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 17 —Canadian Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America
SITC 65 + 84
SITC 65
SITC 84
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 18 —EU(2003 without Greece, Finland and Sweden) Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America
SITC 65 + 84
SITC 65
SITC 84
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 19 —Japanese Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America
SITC 65 + 84
SITC 65
SITC 84
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS
Diagram 20 —Australian and New Zealand Textile (SITC 65) and Clothing (SITC 84) Imports from Africa and Latin America
SITC 65 + 84
SITC 65
SITC 84
Source: Own calculations based on OECD, ITCS