SHIFTING POPULATIONS
What events have the most significant impacts on the populations of cities?
Task
For this project, you will explore the effect of historical events on a city in the United States. Each student will examine factors that may have significantly influenced population change, create mathematical models of the changing populations, analyze and make predictions based on models, and defend and contextualize predictions using historical knowledge.
Your finished project must be between 800 and 1200 words excluding the following components:
§ Maps, charts, diagrams, annotated illustrations and tables
§ Equations, formulas and calculations
§ Bibliography
§ Appendices
10A / 10Bo Las Vegas, Nevada (Jessica)
o Jacksonville, Florida (Giorgos)
o Indianapolis, Indiana (Marianna)
o San Francisco, California (Amit)
o Nashville, Tennessee (Evan)
o Albuquerque, New Mexico
o Charlotte, North Carolina (Ilyas)
o Detroit, Michigan (Timur)
o Atlanta, Georgia (Caleb)
o Memphis, Tennessee (Callisto)
o Boston, Massachusetts (Andreas)
o New Orleans, Louisiana (Henry)
o Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Stefano) / o New York City, New York (Achilleas)
o Los Angeles, California (Mia)
o Chicago, Illinois (Anastasia)
o Houston, Texas (Marc)
o Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Orestis)
o Phoenix, Arizona (Alina)
o Seattle, Washington (Karim)
o Denver, Colorado (Stephano)
o Dallas, Texas (Adilet)
o Portland, Oregon
History Preparation
Part 1 – Preliminary Research
1. Choose your city from the list.
2. Use Encyclopedia Britannica to identify 8 significant events that occurred in that city that you think may be related to a national event (examples of national events: Prohibition, World War I, The Great Migration). You will select 2 events within each of the following date ranges:
· 1880 – 1900
· 1900 - 1929
· 1929 – 1941
· 1942 – 1960
*Note* These events must relate to major public works projects, economic shifts, industrial changes, laws, or political events
3. Complete the chart to organize your research
Part 2 – In-depth Research
1. Working with Dr. Jonsson, narrow your events down to 4 events to research more in-depth. You will select one event within each of the following date ranges:
· 1880 – 1900
· 1900 - 1929
· 1929 – 1941
· 1942 – 1960
2. Locate 3 different sources related to each event (Encyclopedia Britannica may be one)
3. Take notes from each source using the provided note-taking forms. Include properly formatted MLA references.
Final Assignment
Draft Due: Tuesday, May 17
Final Draft: Friday, May 27
You will submit an essay that relates your historical research to your predictive models in an effort to answer the question: What events have the most significant impacts on the populations of cities?
Paper Sections and Guidelines:
· Title
o The title should provide a clear indication of the focus of the paper. It should be precise.
· Introduction
o Must include a thesis statement (overall argument) that makes an argument and shows a combination of math data and historical research
o Explains the kinds of sources used and a brief explanation of why those sources are useful to your research.
· Predicted Population Change from 1941 – 1960
o Explanation of your initial prediction for population change from 1941 - 1960.
o Describe in detail and explain your mathematical models using proper math terminology and the justification for your predictions using your knowledge of the history of your city.
o Use in-text citations where appropriate
· Developed Argument
o Explain the extent to which population shifts in your city between 1880 and 1960 are related to (either as causes of effects of) the historical events that you researched. Your explanation should use proper math terminology and specific historical details.
o Use in-text citations where appropriate
· Conclusion
o Make a prediction for future growth of your city using historical knowledge and proper math terminology.
· Works Cited
o MLA format
· Appendix of Illustrations/Charts/Graphs
o Presentation and overall neatness are important.
o Graphs, diagrams and tables are effective only if they are clearly labelled and can be interpreted with ease.
o The use of photographs and other images is acceptable only if they are captioned and/or annotated and are used to illustrate a specific point made in the paper.
o At a minimum, your paper will include the following graphs and tables
§ Actual Population of your city from 1900-1929
§ Actual Population of your city from 1929-1941
§ Predictive linear and exponential models of population growth 1941-1960
§ Actual Population of your city from 1941-1960
§ Predictive model of your city’s population in the year 2050
PROJECT INSTRUCTIONS
Part 1 - Models 1880-1941
1. Create a spreadsheet, which includes population data for your city from 1880-1941
2. Calculate the average yearly absolute change during these years
3. Use this calculation to create a linear growth model
4. Calculate the average yearly percent change
5. Use this calculation to create an exponential growth model
6. Create graphs from your data
Part 2 – Analyze Data 1880-1941
1. Describe in detail (about 1 paragraph) the population changes represented in your graphs in your city over the period 1880 – 1941
Part 3 – Synthesize Data 1880-1941
1. Examine your analysis and your historical research.
2. Answer the following question: "To what extent do the historical events you researched explain population shifts in your city?" Your answer should be about 2 paragraphs.
Part 4 - Prediction Model 1941-1960
1. Using your knowledge of the history of your city, and your data from 1880-1941, choose a linear or exponential model to predict your city's population in 1960.
2. Make a prediction by extending your spreadsheet and using your linear or exponential equation. Indicate what your equation tells you that your city's population should be in 1960.
3. Create a graph from your data.
4. Write one paragraph that describes in detail the population shifts you predict and justify your predictions using your knowledge of the history of your city.
Part 5 – Actual Model 1941-1960
1. Add the actual population statistics to your graph. Compare your prediction to the actual population of your city. Was it exactly correct?
2. Analyze the differences between your predication and what actually happened. Consider where the difference could have come from. (1 paragraph)
Part 6 – Prediction 2050
1. Find out the current population of your city, and examine the trends over the years since 1960.
2. Write a linear or exponential equation to help you predict how the population of your city will change over the next 3 decades. Create a spreadsheet and graph to illustrate your prediction for the population of your city in the year 2050.
3. Write a paragraph predicting likely possible future events that would support the mathematical model you've created.
Assessment
A / B / CIntroduction / · The thesis is easily identifiable, sophisticated, and clear
· The method of investigation (sources used) is clearly explained.
· The justification of the method (explanation of the usefulness of sources) is clear. / · The thesis is identifiable, but may be slightly unclear, or lacking in sophistication.
· The method of investigation (sources used) is explained, but may lack clarity.
· The justification of the method (explanation of the usefulness of sources) may lack clarity. / · Difficult to identify thesis, or it may be unclear (contains vague terms)
· The method of the investigation (sources used) may be difficult to identify or is missing.
· The justification of the method (explanation of the usefulness of sources) may be difficult to understand or may be missing.
Historical Knowledge
o Developed Argument
o Conclusion / · The essay demonstrates very good historical knowledge of the topic studied. / · The essay demonstrates a adequate historical knowledge and understanding of the topic studied. / · The essay demonstrates some historical knowledge of the topic studied.
Reasoned Argument
o Introduction
o Developed Argument
o Conclusion / · Ideas are presented clearly and in a logical and coherent manner. The essay succeed in developing a reasoned and convincing argument in relation to the research question / · Ideas are presented in a logical and coherent manner, and a reasoned argument is developed in relation to the research question, but with some weaknesses. / · There is a limited or superficial attempt to present ideas in a logical and coherent manner, and to develop a reasoned argument in reaction to the research question.
Use of Language Appropriate to the Subject
o Introduction
o Predicted Population change
o Developed Argument
o Conclusion / · The language used communicates clearly and precisely. Terminology (both historical and mathematical) is used accurately, with skill and understanding. / · The language used communicates clearly. Terminology (both historical and mathematical) is accurate, although there may be occasional lapses. / · The language used sometimes communicates clearly but does not do so consistently. The use of terminology (both historical and mathematical) is only partially accurate.
Application of analytical and evaluative skills
o Introduction
o Predicted Population change
o Developed Argument
o Conclusion / · The essay shows effective and sophisticated application of appropriate analytical and evaluative skills / · The essay shows sound application of appropriate analytical and evaluative skills / · The essay shows some application of appropriate analytical and evaluative skills, which may be only partially effective.
Graphs and tables
o Appendix
o Predicated Population Change
o Developed Argument
o Conclusion / · All graphs and tables are complete
· All calculations are correct and reflect the equations used
· Graphs are exceptionally clear and easy to read
· A reader can quickly make sense of the information
· Scale is chosen to make the graph very clear
· Graphs have a clear title, and clear labels for both axes. / · All graphs and tables are complete
· Graphs and tables are clear and readable
· A reader can make sense of the information
· Scale is labeled on graphs
· Graph has a title and labels for both axes. Units are labeled / · Graphs and tables are present but it takes some work to figure out what information is communicated
· Scale is present on the graph, but it may not be clear why that scale was chosen
· Graph has a title or labels for both axes.
· Not fully clear what graphs are communicating
Conclusion / · An effective conclusion is clearly stated; it is relevant to the research question and consistent with the evidence presented in the essay. / · A conclusion is attempted that is relevant to the research question but may not be entirely consistent with the evidence presented in the essay. / · Little attempt is made to provide a conclusion that is relevant to the research question.
Formal Presentation
o Title
o Introduction
o Predicted Population Change
o Developed Argument
o Conclusion
o Works Cited
o Appendix / · The formal presentation is excellent with consistently correct usage of MLA standards, including a title page, in-text citations, and a works cited page. / · The formal presentation is good with few mistakes in the usage of MLA standards, including a title page, in-text citations, and a works cited page. / · The formal presentation is poor with mistakes in the usage of MLA standards, including a title page, in-text citations, and a works cited page.