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Warrnambool and South West Region
The Warrnambool and South West SA4 includes the Local Government Areas (LGA) of:
LGA
Colac-Otway
Corangamite
Glenelg
Moyne
Southern Grampians
Warrnambool
300 local businesses participated in our survey which was undertaken between December 2014 and February 2015.
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Regional Snapshot
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Adult Population(2013)
/Growth in Adult population 2008-2013
/15 to 24 year olds
/65 + years
/Median age(Census 2011)
Colac-Otway / 16,900 / 1% / 14% / 24% / 42Corangamite / 12,900 / -1% / 14% / 26% / 43
Glenelg / 16,000 / 0% / 13% / 23% / 43
Moyne / 12,800 / 3% / 14% / 21% / 41
Southern Grampians / 13,200 / -3% / 15% / 26% / 44
Warrnambool / 27,000 / 7% / 18% / 21% / 38
Warrnambool and South West SA4 / 98,800 / 2% / 15% / 23% / 41
Victoria / 4,688,100 / 10% / 18% / 16% / 37
Population profile
Source: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2013; ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
LGA2013
adult popWAP15-24 YEARS
Colac-Otway16,93512,8262,365
Corangamite12,9089,5811,845
Glenelg16,03412,3592,117
Moyne12,84110,0851,735
Southern Grampians13,1789,7941,981
Warrnambool26,95421,3904,918
SA498,85076,03414,961
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Young people leaving the area
Source: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2013
Since 1991, the population in the Warrnambool and South West has been ageing. In addition to this, young people are leaving the area.
Change from 2008 to 2013
LGA / 15-19 / 20-24 / 25-29 / 30-34 / 35-39 / 40-44 / 45-49 / 50-54 / 55-59 / 60-64 / 65-69 / 70-74 / 75-79 / 80-84 / 85 and over / totalColac-Otway (S) / -157 / -87 / 88 / -22 / -177 / -27 / -183 / -42 / 102 / 170 / 315 / 81 / -9 / 6 / 109 / -88
Corangamite (S) / -7 / -14 / -80 / -143 / -215 / -146 / -125 / 132 / 4 / 58 / 99 / 40 / 100 / 5 / 108 / -499
Glenelg (S) / 20 / -169 / -66 / -102 / -103 / -175 / -180 / -6 / 150 / 228 / 182 / 154 / 16 / 8 / 39 / -499
Moyne (S) / -137 / 9 / 23 / 3 / -120 / 81 / -143 / 44 / 109 / 102 / 238 / 87 / 7 / 17 / 48 / 429
Southern Grampians (S) / -18 / -17 / -70 / -4 / -211 / -118 / -225 / -36 / -3 / 40 / 189 / 16 / -31 / -20 / 55 / -724
Warrnambool (C) / -116 / 256 / 231 / 29 / -174 / 43 / -45 / 162 / 243 / 240 / 346 / 203 / -5 / 95 / 166 / 1,604
SA4 / -415 / -22 / 126 / -239 / -1,000 / -342 / -901 / 254 / 605 / 838 / 1,369 / 581 / 78 / 111 / 525 / 223
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One in four young people leave the area - 15 to 24 year olds
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
3,900 (25 per cent) 15 to 24 year olds who had resided in the Warrnambool and South West SA4 at the time of the 2006 census had moved out of the area by the 2011 census.
2,800 15 to 24 year olds who had resided elsewhere at the time of the 2006 Census had moved into the area by the 2011 census.
Net migration out was 1,100.
Of the 3,900 who moved out, 53 per cent were females and 47 per cent were males.
Migration out of the individual LGAs (some of this migration is between the LGAs)
Warrnambool was the only LGA to have a net increase in youth. They had 1,100 young people move out and 1,200 move in. The net migration in was 100 young people.
Colac-Otway-380
Corangamite-780
Glenelg-580
Moyne-440
Southern Grampians-310
Warrnambool +100
Moving to Warrnambool from other LGAs in SA4
Corangamite14022% of those moving out
Glenelg7011% of those moving out
Moyne26038% of those moving out
Southern Grampians509% of those moving out
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Additional information
(Age group 50 plus)
In the 50 plus age group 2,400 people moved out of the region while 3,050 moved into the region. This is a net migration in of 650 people.
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Losing your best and brightest
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
In the five years to August 2011, one quarter (25 per cent) of people aged 15-24 years, moved away from the Warrnambool and South East region.
Of those 15-24 year olds who had moved away, 21 per cent are currently employed in a higher skilled job and 12 per cent had completed a bachelor degree or higher.
For those aged 15-24 who had stayed behind, 10 per cent were currently employed in a higher skilled job and only 2 per cent had completed a bachelor degree or higher.
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Unemployment increasing since September 2010
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages and seasonally adjusted)
The unemployment rate for the Warrnambool and South West SA4 has been steadily increasing from 3.2 per cent in September 2010 to stand at 6.2 per cent in March 2015. The unemployment rate is currently the same as Victoria (6.2 per cent seasonally adjusted).
The participation rate has fallen from 66.3 per cent in September 2010 to currently stand at 63.4percent in March 2015.
SALM unemployment rates
UR / Dec-10 / Mar-11 / Jun-11 / Sep-11 / Dec-11 / Mar-12 / Jun-12 / Sep-12 / Dec-12 / Mar-13 / Jun-13 / Sep-13 / Dec-13 / Mar-14 / Jun-14 / Sep-14 / DecColac-Otway (S) / 4.5% / 6.0% / 6.3% / 6.4% / 6.2% / 5.9% / 5.9% / 6.5% / 6.5% / 6.6% / 6.7% / 6.7% / 6.5% / 6.4% / 7.3% / 7.8% / 7.5%
Corangamite (S) / 3.3% / 4.5% / 4.7% / 4.7% / 4.5% / 4.0% / 3.8% / 3.8% / 3.6% / 3.6% / 3.8% / 4.0% / 4.1% / 4.1% / 4.7% / 5.0% / 4.8%
Glenelg (S) / 5.8% / 7.7% / 8.0% / 7.9% / 7.6% / 6.8% / 6.4% / 6.6% / 6.4% / 6.5% / 6.8% / 7.1% / 7.1% / 7.1% / 8.0% / 8.5% / 8.2%
Moyne (S) / 2.8% / 3.8% / 3.9% / 4.0% / 3.9% / 3.5% / 3.3% / 3.4% / 3.4% / 3.6% / 3.8% / 4.0% / 3.9% / 3.7% / 4.1% / 4.4% / 4.1%
Southern Grampians (S) / 3.9% / 5.4% / 5.6% / 5.7% / 5.7% / 5.3% / 5.1% / 5.4% / 5.3% / 5.4% / 5.6% / 5.7% / 5.6% / 5.5% / 6.6% / 7.2% / 7.0%
Warrnambool (C) / 4.3% / 5.8% / 6.1% / 6.1% / 5.8% / 5.3% / 5.0% / 5.2% / 5.1% / 5.3% / 5.6% / 5.9% / 5.9% / 5.8% / 6.5% / 7.0% / 6.7%
SA4 / 4.2% / 5.6% / 5.9% / 5.9% / 5.7% / 5.2% / 5.0% / 5.2% / 5.1% / 5.3% / 5.5% / 5.7% / 5.6% / 5.6% / 6.3% / 6.8% / 6.5%
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Region
/Unemployment rate
December 2013
/December2014
Cola-Otway LGA / 6.7% / 7.8%Corangamite LGA / 4.0% / 5.0%
Glenelg LGA / 7.1% / 8.5%
Moyne LGA / 4.0% / 4.4%
Southern Grampians LGA / 5.7% / 7.2%
Warrnambool LGA / 5.9% / 7.0%
…Regional disparity and all rising
Source: Department of Employment, Small Area Labour Markets, December 2014
In December 2014, the highest unemployment rate in the Warrnambool and South West region was in the Glenelg LGA (8.5 per cent). This was followed by the Colac-Otway LGA (7.8 per cent), Southern Grampians LGA (7.2 per cent) and the Warrnambool LGA (7.0 per cent).
The lowest unemployment rate was in the Moyne LGA (4.0 per cent), this was followed by Corangamite LGA (5.0 per cent).
In the 12 months to December 2014, the Southern Grampians LGA had the largest increase from 5.7per cent in December 2014 to 7.2 per cent in December 2015 (1.5 percentage points).
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Internet vacancies declining
Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Report, December 2014 (3 month moving average)
Since May 2010, internet vacancies for Geelong and Surf Coast have fallen by 9 percent.
The Geelong and Surf Coast region includes the LGAs of Geelong, Corangamite, Moyne, Colac-Otway and Warrnambool
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The Rest of Victoria had a 19 per cent fall since May 2010.
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Almost one in five of all unemployed people are out of work more than one year
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages)
In the 12 months to March 2015, the proportion of people unemployed for 52 weeks or more increased from 16 per cent to 19 per cent. In addition, the average number of weeks unemployed rose from 34 weeks in March 2014 to 41 weeks in March 2015.
RegionMarch 2014March 2015
Warrnambool and South West16%19%
Victoria18%20%
Australia20%23%
Since GFC (Oct 2008)
Warrnambool and South West
The long term unemployed (LTU) to unemployment ratio increased by 8 percentage points and duration of unemployed increased by 3 weeks.
Victoria
LTU to unemployment ratio increased by 6 percentage points and duration of unemployed increased by 6 weeks.
March 2015 (12 months av)
National by ageaverage week unemployed% unemployed 52 weeks or more
15-192414%
20-243723%
25-343920%
34-444524%
45-545628%
55-597132%
60-647537%
65+6731%
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Agriculture in the main employer in the region…
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February Quarter 2015 (4 quarter averages)
At February 2015, Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing was the largest employing industry in the region with 19 per cent of total employed. This was followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (13percent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Education and Training (9 per cent), Retail Trade and Accommodation and Food Services (both 8 per cent), Public Administration and Safety (7 per cent) and Construction (5 per cent).
Employment in the Agriculture industry is predominately in two sectors, Sheep, Beef Cattle Grain Farming (48 per cent of all Agriculture employment) and Dairy Cattle Farming (41 per cent of all Agriculture employment).
IndustryNo. employed
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing11,100
Health Care and Social Assistance7,700
Manufacturing5,800
Education and Training5,600
Retail Trade4,900
Accommodation and Food Service4,500
Public Administration and Safety4,000
Construction2,700
Transport, Postal and Warehousing2,700
Total employed59,000
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..but falling employment
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February Quarter 2015 (4 quarter averages)
In the five years to February 2015, employment in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry increased by 3,200. This was followed by Health Care and Social Assistance (1,800), Accommodation and Food Services (1,600) and Public Administration and Safety (1,300).
Over the same period, employment in the Manufacturing industry fell by 3,600. This was followed by Construction (-3,200), Health Care and Social Assistance (-1,800) and Retail Trade (-1,200).
Total employment for the region fell by 3,500 in the 5 years to February 2015.
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Background: 12 months to Feb 2015
Total employment for the region fell by 2,700 (-4 per cent) in the 12 months to February 2015.
IndustrySA4VictoriaAustralia
Health Care and Social Assistance22%-1%1%
Public Administration and Safety34%5%-3%
Transport, Postal and Warehousing30%4%2%
Education and Training9%4%3%
Accommodation and Food Services-6%7%5%
Retail Trade-24%8%2%
Construction-43%-3%2%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing-17%4%7%
Feb 2015
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IndustryNo. employed
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing11,100
Health Care and Social Assistance7,700
Manufacturing5,800
Education and Training5,600
Retail Trade4,900
Accommodation and Food Service4,500
Public Administration and Safety4,000
Construction2,700
Transport, Postal and Warehousing2,700
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And full-time employment also declining
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages)
In the 12 months to March 2015, both full-time and part-time employment fell which made for an overall decline in total employment of 3,400. Full-time employment fell by 2,800 which was made up of both males (-1,600) and females (-1,200). Males working part-time fell by 200 and females working part-time fell by 400. Total part-time employment fell by 600 in the 12 months to March 2015.
Fall in full-time and part-time employment by selected industries
IndustryFull-timePart-time
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing-900-1,500
Manufacturing1,900-300
Construction-1,200-800
Retail Trade-1,000-500
Health Care and Social Assistance-1001,500
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Change in industry over the past decade
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, February Quarter 2015 (4 quarter averages)
There have been some changes to industry over the past decade within the region.
While Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is still the largest employing industry, the proportion of people it employs fell from 22 per cent in February 2005 to 19 per cent in February 2015. Retail Trade has slipped from second largest employing industry in 2005 to fifth in 2015. Education and Training was the seventh largest employing industry in 2005 and is now the fourth in 2015.
Additionally, Health Care and Social Assistance has jumped from third in 2005 to second in 2015
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Older workforce in some large employing industries
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
In August 2011, there were a number of large employing industries in the region whose workforce was predominately aged 45 years and over. Almost three in five (57 per cent) people employed in the Health Care and Social Assistance industry are aged 45 years or more. This was closely followed by Public Administration and Safety (55 per cent), and Education and Training (54 per cent).
Overall, almost half (48 per cent) employees in the Warrnambool and South West SA4 are aged 45years or more, which is high when compared with Australia (40 per cent).
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What’s happening with youth unemployment?
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey, March 2015 (12 month averages)
In the five years to March 2015, youth unemployment increased by 12.5 percentage points to 19.4per cent. The youth unemployment rate for Victoria increased by 3.7 percentage points to 15.1per cent and for Australia it increased by 1.9 percentage points to 13.5 per cent.
Over the same period, the youth participation rate in Warrnambool and South West fell by 2.0percentage points to 70.2 per cent. Victoria and Australia also experienced falls in their youth participation rates in the five years to March 2015 (down 1.7 percentage points to 66.0 per cent anddown 2.1percentage point to 66.8 per cent respectively).
Even with the fall in the youth participation rate for Warrnambool and South West, it still remains higher than the state and national average.
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Many young people disengaged
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
Youth disengagement is an issue in the Warrnambool and South West region. Almost one in five (18per cent) females in the region are not studying and either not in the labour force or unemployed. This is high when compared to Victoria where one in ten (11 per cent) females is either not in the labour force or unemployed.
The highest level of youth disengagement is in the LGA of Glenelg where 28 per cent of females are not studying and either not in the labour force or unemployed and 16 per cent of males are also not studying and either not in the labour force or unemployed (10 per cent for Victoria).
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Lower levels of Year 12 completions
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
In August 2011, 61 per cent 25 to 34 year olds in the Warrnambool and South West SA4 attained their Year 12 certificate, considerably lower than Victoria (79 per cent) and Australia (75 per cent).
Further, only one in five (21 per cent) 25 to 34 year olds in Warrnambool and South West have attained a Bachelor degree or higher, much lower compared with Victoria (40 per cent).
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Education and labour market outcomes
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2011
There is a strong relationship between educational attainment and labour market outcomes. People with higher levels of education are more likely to participate in the workforce, and less likely to be unemployed.
The unemployment rate was high (10.8 per cent) and the participation rate was low (66.2 per cent) among 25 to 34 year olds who did not attained a Year 12 certificate. However, the unemployment rate was low (1.4 per cent) and participation rate high (89.0 per cent) for those 25 to 34 year olds who had attained a Bachelor degree or higher.
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Key Survey results
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
The Department conducted a Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences in the Warrnambool and South West Statistical Area in January 2015 where 300 employers responded.
From the survey results we know 57 per cent of employers recruited in the 12 months before the survey, 17 per cent increased staff numbers and 17 per cent decreased staff numbers.
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What employers told us…
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
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…Yet some employers still had difficulty filling vacancies
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
Over half (52 per cent) of employers in the Accommodation and Food Services industry had difficulty recruiting in their most recent recruitment round, this was followed by employers in the Manufacturing industry (35 per cent). By comparison, most employers in the Retail Trade industry found recruiting relatively easy with only 15 per cent reporting difficulty.
Overall, one third of employers in the Warrnambool and South West region had difficulty recruiting.
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The recruitment process
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, February 2015
On average, employers in Warrnambool and South West received 7 applicants per vacancy.
Of these applicants, an average of 3 were interviewed.
Of these interviewed applicants, only 2 were considered suitable for the vacancy.
The reasons applicants did not get an interview were:
-Lack of relevant experience
-Insufficient qualifications or training
-Basic employability skills
-Applicant not available for required work hours
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Lower competition for some occupations
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
Clerical and Administrative occupations attracted the most applicants with, on average, 11 applicants per vacancy. This was followed by Managers and Professionals (10.4 applicants per vacancy), Machinery Operators and Drivers (10.2 applicants) and Sales Workers (8.6 applicants). Community and Personal Service Workers attracted the least number of applicants (3.5 applicants).
Overall, there were 7.1 applicants per vacancy in the region, lower than all regions (10.3 applicants per vacancy).
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Apprenticeships and traineeships in decline…but increasing in Agriculture
Source: NCVER, VOCSTATS, Apprentices and Trainees, September 2014
Apprenticeship and traineeship completion rates in the Warrnambool and South West region fell in September 2014. Manufacturing and Accommodation and Food Services had the biggest fall in completions (both 80). On the other hand, apprenticeship and traineeship completions in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry rose by 140 in September 2014.
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Why people didn’t get an interview
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
More than half (54 per cent) of employers recruiting for medium to higher skilled occupations, reported applicants were unsuitable for the job due to lack of relevant experience. This was followed by insufficient qualifications and training (29 per cent).
By comparison, a considerably smaller proportion (38 per cent) of employers recruiting for lower skilled occupations deemed an applicant unsuitable due to lack of relevant experience, this was followed by lack of soft skills.
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Employability skills are essential
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
There were a range of general employability skills and personality traits that employers attempting to fill positions commonly viewed as essential for the position, including interpersonal skills, customer focus, communication, attitude, reliability and work ethic.
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Many jobs are not advertised
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, February 2015
Some 55 per cent of employers used formal methods to advertise for vacancies (i.e. Internet, Newspaper)
This meant more than two in five (45 per cent) recruiting employers used informal methods ONLY to recruit for vacancies (i.e. Word of Mouth, Approached by job seeker)
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Future recruitment
Source: Department of Employment, Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences, Warrnambool, January 2015
More than one third (39 per cent) of employers expect to recruit in the next 12 months. Further, 40per cent of employers in the Transport, Postal and Warehousing industry expect to increase staff numbers. This is followed by Other Services (31 per cent), Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (27percent) and Retail Trade (24 per cent). Overall, 19 per cent of employers in the region expect to increase staff numbers and 7 per cent expect to decrease staff numbers.
These figures are very similar to what we have found in the combined survey regions (12 months to December 2014) where 19 per cent of all employers surveyed also were looking to increase staff in the 12 months following the surveys and 6 per cent were looking to decrease staff.
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