TWINNING LIGHT PROJECT FICHE
BASIC INFORMATION
1.1. CRIS and Twinning Number:
1.2. Title: “Further strengthening of the institutional capacity of the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting”
1.3. Location: Sofia, Bulgaria
BACKGROUND
Bulgaria has been the beneficiary of accession related PHARE institution building projects since 1998. A number of institution building projects have been or are being completed successfully in the form of full scale twinning with the assistance of Member States experts. However at this stage after the Bulgaria’s accession in the EU there is a clear demand to establish a more flexible institution building instrument to address specific well-circumscribed self contained subjects of limited scope. The purpose is to provide the possibility to respond to emerging tasks in a more flexible and immediate way.
With respect to the extended scope of responsibilities of the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (AEAF) and in order to further increase the Agency’s capability to better perform the duties assigned, it is necessary to undertake measures to further strengthen the institutional capacity of AEAF.
To achieve the above stated goal, several types of actions should be undertaken:
· Further strengthening of the administrative capacity of the AEAF - to perform SWOT analyses of the 5 AEAF Directorates, to elaborate a Report with recommendations for redefinition of directorates’ functions and tasks, elimination of overlapping functions, to draw a Strategic Plan of the AEAF over the period 2008-13 with a redefined mission, vision, strategic objectives, priority areas, and formulated objective criteria and indicators for meeting the strategic objectives and the annual priority goals set
· Development and implementation of the regional dimension of economic analysis and forecasting - the aim is to implement methodologies for regional decomposition of national-level macroeconomic indicators so as to be able to expand and deepen the Agency’s macroeconomic analyses and forecasting in view of the continuing decentralisation process in Bulgaria.
· Further development of the AEAF’s Data Warehouse project - the aim is to work out a detailed technical specification for customisation of the software to be delivered under Supply contract EuropeAid/121341/D/SV/BG to build the AEAF’s Data warehouse as a contemporary data warehouse, corresponding to best EU standards.
· Further implementation of AEAF’s HR Development and Training Plan - the aim is to enhance the AEAF’s staff capacity in performance management , development of implementation criteria, and methods and tools for goal setting, planning, monitoring and assessment of performance/implementation, strategic planning, controlling, organisational development, change management; implementation of the EMU related acquis, including the EU economic policies coordination mechanism.
DESCRIPTION OF THE ASSIGNMENT
3.1 Beneficiary(ies)
3.1.1. Detailed description of the main beneficiary institution
The Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting (AEAF) is a government executive agency under the Administration Act and assists the Minister of Finance of the Republic of Bulgaria in the exercise of the powers thereof by means of preparation of analyses, forecasts and strategic documents. Currently AEAF employs 65 persons distributed in five directorates: Macroeconomic Analyses, Economic Policy and Forecasting, National Development Plan, EU Economic Policies and International Cooperation, and Administrative, Legal and Financial Affairs (see Annex 1).
Principal functions and tasks of the Agency:
· analyses the economic performance of Bulgaria and the current business environment and elaborates assessments on the country's economic development prospects;
· prepares short-, medium- and long-term forecasts for Bulgaria's economic development trends under different economic policy scenarios;
· prepares the macroeconomic budget framework for the current year and the following three years;
· prepares and/or coordinates the elaboration of the National Development Plan and the National Strategic Reference Framework;
· participates in the elaboration of the Government's strategic documents and assesses their compliance with the National Development Plan and the National Strategic Reference Framework;
· elaborates and updates annually the Convergence Programme of the Republic of Bulgaria in accordance with the Stability and Growth Pact;
· coordinates inter-departmental work on the preparation of the National Reform Programme of the Republic of Bulgaria as well as the monitoring and analysis of its implementation in line with the Relaunched Lisbon Strategy;
· is responsible for the preparation of regular reports on the macroeconomic impact of the absorption of EU funds, the implementation of the National Strategic Reference Framework and the Operational Programmes;
· carries out analyses of the implementation of major infrastructure projects focusing on their economic impact;
· is put in charge of the assessment of the anticipated effects on macroeconomic level of any changes in the legislative and regulatory framework and economic policy.
· Elaboration of strategic and programme documents for the participation of Bulgaria in the Structural and Cohesion Fund of the EU.
· Elaboration and submission of strategic documents ensuring the macroeconomic and fiscal stability of Bulgaria in the mid-term as well as smooth transition to full membership of the Economic and Monetary Union of the EU.
· Ensuring analytical and forecasting support of the achieved macroeconomic stability and keeping the sustainability of the public finances during the first year of the membership of Bulgaria in the EU.
3.1.2. The context in the beneficiary country (BC) and linked activities
The Agency together with other ministries and institutions elaborates and suggests specific economic programmes and observes and assesses their implementation. The AEAF has participated in the pre-accession negotiations and the preparation of Bulgaria for a full-fledged membership in the EU. It has been the leading institution for Negotiating Chapter 11 ‘Economic and Monetary Union’, and has been actively involved in the work of Negotiating Chapters 21 ‘Regional Policy’ and 29 ‘Financial and Budgetary Provisions’. Specifically, AEAF together with other ministries and institutions elaborates and suggests specific economic programs and observes and assesses their implementation. It has been responsible for the elaboration and annual update of the Pre-accession Economic Programme. Following the country’s accession to the EU, AEAF is entitled with the preparation of the country’s Convergence Programme. The AEAF has been in charge of the preparation of the National Development Plan 2007-2013 and has had a coordination role in the process of Operational Programmes’ development. The Agency is also responsible for the elaboration of the National Reform Program.
With a view to the accession of the country to the EU in 2007 and with respect to the broad responsibilities of AEAF, a number of measures were undertaken in order to strengthen the institutional capacity of AEAF.
AEAF, together with the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, successfully completed a PHARE Twinning project BG2004/IB/FI/10 “Strengthening of the institutional capacity of the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting”, which is component 5 of PHARE BG/2004/016-711.09.04 “Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Finance”. The Twinning project consisted of four components:
Component 1: Alignment of the existing regulatory framework of the AEAF with best EU practices;
Component 2: Optimisation of the organisational structure of the AEAF and further human resources development;
Component 3: Improvement of existing tools applied in the AEAF for economic forecasting and policy analysis and development of a new methodological framework;
Component 4: Development and implementation of a Data Warehouse System.
This project is also linked to the accomplishment of the hardware and software supply under Component 6 of PHARE Project BG2004/016-711.09.04 “Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of the Ministry of Finance”.
Following the results from the project and the recommendations from the Final report for activities linked to the further strengthening of the administrative capacity of the AEAF, development and implementation of the regional dimension of economic analysis and forecasting, further development of the AEAF’s Data Warehouse project and the further implementation of AEAF’s HR Development and Training Plan the present Project Fiche was drawn up.
3.1.3. The proposed methodology for implementing the intended reform
The planned action shall be carried out through a follow-up Twinning light project, as a logical continuation of the PHARE Twinning project BG2004/IB/FI/10 “Strengthening of the institutional capacity of the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting and will lead to successful implementation of its achievements. The current Twinning light project is considered as the most appropriate means to answer the further needs of the AEAF since it is meant to address specific targets of limited scope.
3.1.4. Steering Committee
A Project Steering Committee (PSC) will be established for the strategic management of the project. The PSC will include the MS and BC project leaders and the component leaders. Officials and experts the Central Finance and Contracts Unit, Ministry of Finance, will be invited as observers.
The following Steering Committee meetings shall be held during the project implementation.
· Kick-off Meeting at the project’s start.
· Steering Committee during the 3rd month to discuss and approve the start-up report
· Final Steering Committee to discuss and approve the final report.
3.1.5 BC Project Leader
The assigned BC Project Leader shall be:
Mr. Petar Chobanov
Executive Director of the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting
31, “Aksakov” Str.
1000 Sofia
Tel.: (+ 359 2) 9859 56 00
E-mail:
3.2 Global and specific objectives
· Overall objective
Further strengthening the institutional capacity of the AEAF in the first years after the accession of Bulgaria to the EU by provision of MS assistance to meet the challenges in the identified priority areas.
Project Purpose
To enhance the administrative and operational capacity of the AEAF, to improve the regional dimension of economic analysis and forecasting, further to develop the AEAF’s Data Warehouse project and to update and implement the AEAF’s HR Development and Training plan.
3.3 Requested services / nature of activities
Component 1: Further strengthening of the administrative capacity of the AEAF
Activities:
A1.1. To design and apply on a pilot basis Method for performing organisational analysis of AEAF and its units so as to improve the ability of AEAF to grow and develop:
Expected MS input
The envisaged MS input for this activity is 28 man-days, allocated as shown in table 2.
Type of input:
- 3 days mission of 2 STE to Bulgaria for one-day Workshop on methods and techniques for organisational analysis
- 5 days mission of 2 STEs to Bulgaria to perform together with the respective head of Directorate SWOT analyses of the 5 AEAF Directorates
- 3 days mission of 2 STEs to Bulgaria to analyse the different functions performed of the separate administrative units so as to identify cross-functional or redundant activities and pinpoint any new tasks not included in the current Statute Rules
- 3-days mission of 2 STEs to Bulgaria to elaborate, based on the analyses performed, a Report with recommendations for redefinition of directorates’ functions and tasks (where applicable), elimination of overlapping functions, identification of bottlenecks and drawbacks.
A1.2. To draw a Strategic Plan of the AEAF over the period 2008-13 with a redefined mission, vision, strategic objectives, priority areas, and formulated objective criteria and indicators for meeting the strategic objectives and the annual priority goals set
Expected MS input
The envisaged MS input for this activity is 22 man-days, allocated as shown in table 2.
Type of input:
- 3-day mission of 2 STEs to Bulgaria to review and analyse AEAF’s mission, vision, strategic objectives, annual goals and operational plans thereof
- 3-day mission of 2 STEs to Bulgaria to elaborate, based on the analysis, a Report with recommendations and proposal for a redefinition of AEAF mission, vision, strategic objectives, annual goals and operational plans to be discussed at a 1 day workshop with AEAF senior management staff;
- 5 day mission of 2 STEs to Bulgaria to draw up, together with AEAF senior management staff and also based on the results of Activity 1.1., a Strategic Plan of the AEAF over the period 2008-13 with a redefined mission, vision, strategic objectives, priority areas, and formulated objective criteria and indicators for meeting the strategic objectives and the annual priority goals set.
- Formal approval of the jointly elaborated Strategic Plan by an Order of the Executive Director
Component 2: Development and implementation of the regional dimension of economic analysis and forecasting
Based on the results and findings of PHARE Twinning project BG2004/IB/FI/10 “Strengthening of the institutional capacity of the Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting”, the activities under this component aim at implementing the suggested methodologies for regional decomposition of national-level macroeconomic indicators so as to be able to enrich and complement the Agency’s macroeconomic analyses and forecasting in view of the continuing decentralisation process in Bulgaria.
Activities:
A2.1. To design and construct composite economic development indexes based on data provided by National Statistical Institute, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works, and Ministry of Labour and Social Policy
Expected MS input
The envisaged MS input for this activity is 20 man-days, allocated as shown in table 2.
Type of input:
- 5 days 2 STEs mission to Bulgaria to coach the AEAF experts on designing and constructing the composite economic development indexes
- 5 days 2 STEs mission to Bulgaria to check the results, make corrections and ranking the regions
A2.2. To use the results of Activity A2.1. for analysing and forecasting the regional economic development, including regional demographic dynamics.
Expected MS input
The envisaged MS input for this activity is 20 man-days, allocated as shown in table 2.
Type of input:
- 5 days 2 STEs mission to Bulgaria to work on the analysis of the regions and on the demographic forecasting exercise
- 5 days 2 STEs mission to Bulgaria to work on the regional forecasting exercise
A2.3. To elaborate a working paper on regional economic analysis and forecasting, including demographic forecasting.
Expected MS input
The envisaged MS input for this activity is 20 man-days, allocated as shown in table 2.
- 2 days 2 STEs mission to Bulgaria to train AEAF’s experts in usage of specific software tools for publishing the results of regional analysis and forecasting
- 8 days 2 STEs mission to Bulgaria to prepare a working paper on regional analysis and forecasting to be published in the AEAF publications series using the specific software tools for publishing the results of regional analysis and forecasting